Updated Military Situation in Ukraine - January 8th, 2025, 14:03 UTC

Strategic Overview

The military situation in Ukraine remains critical for Ukrainian forces, with a marked shift in momentum favoring Russian troops. Substantial Russian gains have been made in the Donetsk region, including the capture of Kurakhove and significant advances towards Pokrovsk and Toretsk. The situation in Toretsk is assessed as dire, with Ukrainian control reportedly below 15%. Russian forces have renewed their offensive in the Kursk region, with 43% of all attacks on January 6th concentrated in this area, indicating a strategic shift to regain the initiative after repelling a Ukrainian offensive. Drone warfare continues to be a central element of the conflict, with extensive use by both sides and reports of evolving tactics. Ukrainian forces confirmed a drone attack on an industrial facility in Engels, Saratov region of Russia, showcasing their capability to strike deep within Russian territory. The geopolitical landscape is marked by potential shifts in Western support, internal disagreements within the Russian military-industrial complex, and ongoing diplomatic efforts.

Key Developments

Kursk Region: Renewed Russian Offensive and Intense Fighting

Renewed Russian Offensive: Russian forces have resumed offensive operations in the Kursk region, with a significant concentration of attacks near Nikolaevka and the outskirts of Staraya Sorochina near Malaya Loknya. This suggests a strategic shift to regain the initiative after repelling the Ukrainian offensive. Russian assault units are engaged in intense fighting in these areas.
Intensified Drone Warfare: Reports indicate the use of "Lancet" drones by Russian forces against Ukrainian artillery in the Kursk region. A video from the "Podolsk" group shows drone operators targeting enemy positions, resulting in multiple explosions and fires. Drone operators from the "Akhmat" special forces unit, specifically the 204th regiment's "Khokhol" detachment, are actively participating in combat operations in this area, conducting reconnaissance and precision strikes with FPV drones and VOG drops.
Air and Missile Activity: Air raid alerts have been issued for Voronezh, Belgorod, and Kursk Oblasts due to aviation and missile threats. Ukrainian air defenses reportedly intercepted a Ukrainian missile over Kursk Oblast.
Russian Military Claims: The Russian Ministry of Defense reports that Russian paratroopers are pushing Ukrainian forces out of Makhnovka and Dmitryukov in the Kursk region. They also destroyed Ukrainian firing points with a 2S9 Nona-S self-propelled mortar. In Chasiv Yar, Ivanovo paratroopers reportedly repelled a Ukrainian drone attack, suppressing four Baba Yaga drones with small arms fire. In the Kursk region, Primorsky paratroopers destroyed a Ukrainian pickup truck with a drone.

Donetsk Region: Critical Situation in Toretsk and Kurakhove, Russian Advances

Critical Situation in Toretsk and Kurakhove: Less than 15% of Toretsk remains under Ukrainian control, with battles ongoing along major streets. Ukrainian journalist Butusov reports that Kurakhove is "factually lost," with Ukrainian forces struggling to defend a narrow area, including a thermal power plant.
Russian Advances: Russian forces have captured Shevchenko and Ivanivka, continuing their advance beyond Kurakhove. They are intensifying attacks near Pokrovsk, with progress reported in Novovasylivka, Yelizavetovka, and Baranovka. Russian units are also advancing in the area of Dachnoye, with intense fighting for Yantarnoye. In the Kurakhove direction, Russian units are engaged in battles for Dachnoye and have reportedly captured 18 Ukrainian soldiers from the 46th Airmobile Brigade near the treatment facilities. Intense fighting continues in the Ulakly-Konstantinopol-Razliv area, where Ukrainian forces have reportedly repelled Russian attacks involving armored vehicles. North of this area, the 114th Brigade and other Russian units are advancing in a Ukrainian fortified area near Andreyevka from Petropavlovka and the area north of Shevchenko.
Drone Warfare: A video from the "Butusov Plus" channel shows Ukrainian infantry using a 10kg TM-62 anti-tank mine against Russian forces hiding in a basement in the Pokrovsk direction.
Casualties near Dzerzhinsk: A video from the "People's Militia of the DPR" channel shows Russian forces capturing a Ukrainian position in Dzerzhinsk, with reports of friendly fire incidents among Ukrainian troops and subsequent casualties during a Russian assault.
Ukrainian Strike on Russian Command Post: The Ukrainian General Staff reports a successful high-precision strike on a command post of the 8th Guards Combined Arms Army of the Russian Federation in Khartsyzk, Donetsk Oblast. This facility was reportedly used by Russian forces to coordinate attacks against Ukrainian forces and civilians, particularly in Kurakhove. The Ukrainian Armed Forces claim to have taken measures to minimize civilian casualties. Videos and images corroborate the strike, showing significant damage.

Kharkiv Region: Road Closure and Russian Advances

Road Closure in Kherson Suburbs: Bus traffic has been temporarily suspended in the suburbs of Kherson (Naddniprianske, Molodizhne, Inzhenerne) due to increased shelling by Russian forces.
Russian Advances: Russian forces report advances towards Lozova in the Izyum area.

Drone Warfare: Escalation and Deep Strikes

Confirmed Drone Attack in Engels, Saratov Region: A Ukrainian drone attack on an industrial facility in Engels has been confirmed, with the governor acknowledging a downed drone and debris impacting the facility. This marks a significant escalation and demonstrates Ukraine's ability to strike deep inside Russian territory.
Continued Drone Activity: Reports of drone movements across multiple oblasts, including Kharkiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Chernihiv, Poltava, Sumy, Cherkasy, Kyiv, Kirovohrad, Odesa, Mykolaiv, Zhytomyr, Vinnytsia, and Kherson.
Air Defense Engagements: Ukrainian air defense forces are actively engaging hostile drones, with reports of activity near Kyiv and successful interceptions. Five drones were shot down in the Rostov region of Russia.
Drone Strikes: Drone operators of the 36th Army of the "Vostok" group reportedly struck a concentration of enemy personnel near Velyka Novosilka. Ukrainian forces conducted a successful drone operation in the Kursk region, targeting a Russian T-90 tank and an ammunition depot. Russian FPV drones reportedly destroyed two Ukrainian vehicles used for ammunition resupply near Terny in the Donetsk People's Republic.
New Drone Targets: Russian drones are targeting Chernihiv and Nizhyn.
Drone Attack on Road: At least four vehicles were damaged in a drone attack on a road in Khartsyzk, with reports of injuries. A video from subscribers shows the aftermath of the attack, with a damaged road and a fallen power line.

Geopolitical Developments: Shifting Alliances and Diplomatic Maneuvers

France Calls for Action Against Elon Musk: French Foreign Minister Jean-Noel Barrot has called on the European Commission to take strong measures against Elon Musk, following earlier hints by French President Emmanuel Macron of Musk's interference in European politics.
Ukraine Offers to Replace Hungary in EU and NATO: The Ukrainian Foreign Ministry has stated that Ukraine is ready to take Hungary's place in the EU and NATO if Hungary decides to leave in favor of membership in the CIS or CSTO. This follows accusations from Hungary regarding rising gas prices in the EU due to the termination of Russian gas transit.
Closure of Polish Consulate in St. Petersburg: The Polish Consulate General in St. Petersburg has been officially closed. The Polish Ambassador to Russia, Krzysztof Krajewski, expressed hope for its reopening in "better times."
Potential Meeting Between Scholz and Putin: Reports suggest a possible meeting between German Chancellor Scholz and Russian President Putin before February 23rd.
Poland's Defense Minister on Ramstein Format: The Polish Defense Minister suggests that the current Ramstein format for coordinating military aid to Ukraine may be the last of its kind, with the new US administration potentially proposing a different approach.
EU on US-Greenland Relations: The EU, through French Foreign Minister Jean-Noel Barrot, has stated that it will not tolerate any attacks on its sovereign borders, in response to reports of US ambitions in Greenland. This indicates a potential rift between the US and the EU over Greenland's strategic importance.

Other Developments: Internal Issues and International Incidents

Legal Action Against Ukrainian MP: A Ukrainian MP and his former assistant are facing trial for organizing illegal border crossings. Another case against MP Dubinsky has been sent to court, with charges related to the illegal transfer of his civilian wife's brother across the border. Ukrainian President Zelensky has reportedly decided to run for a second term, but only if Valeriy Zaluzhnyi does not run. Zelensky has allegedly offered Zaluzhnyi a position in his party if he agrees not to run.
Asset Reclassification in Moscow: 146 specially protected natural areas in Moscow, including parks like Bittsevsky, Sokolniki, Tsaritsyno, and Serebryany Bor, have been reclassified as specially protected green areas (SPGA), removing them from federal protection and allowing for construction.
Propaganda: A new Russian TV series called "Daisies. Such Tender Love" is recommended as a story about Russian officers in the present time. Russian information resources have been accused of spreading misinformation about a "blogger registry" and the hacking of Roskomnadzor, which has been debunked as a Ukrainian information operation.
Arrest of Mercenaries in Venezuela: Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro announced the arrest of seven foreign "mercenaries," including three Ukrainian citizens, allegedly planning terrorist acts against government officials and infrastructure.
Statements from Ukrainian Officials: The head of the Kherson Regional Military Administration made statements about providing defenders with special equipment to effectively build defensive lines.

Updated Situation

The military situation in Ukraine remains highly volatile and unfavorable for Ukrainian forces. The renewed Russian offensive in the Kursk region signifies a shift in momentum and a potential escalation of the conflict in the north, with intense fighting reported near Nikolaevka and Staraya Sorochina. Russian paratroopers are reportedly making progress in the Kursk region, pushing Ukrainian forces out of Makhnovka and Dmitryukov. The continued pressure on Toretsk and Pokrovsk in the Donetsk region highlights the ongoing threat to Ukrainian defensive lines, with Russian forces making incremental gains. The intensification of drone warfare, with reports of new tactics and widespread activity, underscores the evolving nature of the conflict and the critical role of unmanned aerial systems. The confirmed drone attack on an industrial facility in Engels, deep inside Russian territory, represents a significant development and a potential turning point in Ukraine's ability to strike strategic targets.

The geopolitical landscape is becoming increasingly complex, with potential shifts in US and European support for Ukraine, as evidenced by France's call for action against Elon Musk, Ukraine's offer to replace Hungary in the EU and NATO, and Poland's statement on the future of the Ramstein format. The closure of the Polish Consulate in St. Petersburg further reflects the strained relations between Russia and Western countries. The reclassification of protected areas in Moscow suggests potential internal political and economic developments within Russia. The ongoing legal actions against Ukrainian officials highlight internal challenges related to corruption and border security.

The arrest of alleged mercenaries in Venezuela, including Ukrainian citizens, adds another layer of complexity to the international dimension of the conflict, although the veracity of these claims requires further investigation. The statements from Ukrainian officials regarding the provision of equipment for defensive lines indicate ongoing efforts to bolster defenses in key areas.

New Developments:

The Ukrainian General Staff's confirmation of a high-precision strike on a Russian command post in Khartsyzk is a significant development, demonstrating Ukraine's ability to target critical enemy infrastructure.
The reported casualties from the strike on Zaporizhzhia (one dead, three wounded) underscore the continued human cost of the conflict.
Reports of a potential shift in the Ramstein format for coordinating military aid to Ukraine could have significant implications for future support.
The EU's strong statement regarding the defense of its borders, in response to potential US actions in Greenland, highlights the growing tensions and strategic importance of the Arctic region.
The reported internal political maneuvering within Ukraine, particularly regarding Zelensky and Zaluzhnyi, could impact the country's leadership and decision-making during the conflict.
The debunked Russian information operation regarding the "blogger registry" highlights the ongoing information warfare and the need for vigilance against misinformation.
The weather forecast for Ukraine, indicating a warming trend, could have implications for military operations, particularly in terms of ground mobility and logistics.
The continued drone strikes in the Zaporizhzhia region underscore the persistent threat to both military and civilian infrastructure.
The Russian Defense Ministry's video of a drone strike on a Ukrainian vehicle near Terny highlights the ongoing use of drones for reconnaissance and targeted strikes.
The Ukrainian General Staff's video and statement regarding the strike on the Russian command post in Khartsyzk provide further confirmation of the operation and its intended target.
The videos from Khartsyzk showing the aftermath of explosions and damage to infrastructure provide visual evidence of the ongoing conflict in the region.
The report of the dollar exchange rate reaching a new historical high could have implications for Ukraine's economy and its ability to sustain the war effort.
The reported internal discussions within the Ukrainian government regarding potential candidacies in future elections highlight the political complexities and potential power struggles within the country.
The historical anecdotes and propaganda pieces shared by various channels provide context and insight into the ongoing information warfare and attempts to shape public opinion.
The report of a potential scandal involving a crowdfunding platform and its treatment of Ukrainian users could impact fundraising efforts for Ukrainian causes.
The video showing an attack on a passenger on the Moscow Metro escalator highlights the potential for social unrest and violence within Russia.
The image of injured soldiers being exhorted to return to the front line underscores the human cost of the conflict and the potential for low morale among troops.
The announcement of a meeting between the Prime Minister of Greenland and the King of Denmark, amid statements from Trump about a possible takeover of the island, adds another layer of geopolitical complexity to the situation.
The statements from French and German officials regarding the inviolability of borders in Europe reflect the growing concerns about potential aggression and territorial disputes.

Overall, the situation requires close monitoring and a reassessment of strategic objectives and resource allocation in light of the recent developments, particularly the renewed Russian offensive in the Kursk region, the continued intensification of drone warfare, and the evolving geopolitical landscape. The coming days and weeks will be critical in determining the future trajectory of the conflict. The new information regarding the Ukrainian strike on the Russian command post, the ongoing drone attacks, and the geopolitical developments further emphasizes the complexity and volatility of the situation.

Situation Report