Strategic Military Analysis: Ukraine Conflict - January 8th, 2025, 13:33 UTC

Executive Summary

The military situation in Ukraine as of January 8th, 2025, is critical for Ukrainian forces. Russian forces have made substantial gains in the Donetsk region, capturing Kurakhove and threatening Toretsk, where Ukrainian control is reportedly below 10%. Russian forces have renewed their offensive in the Kursk region, with 43% of all attacks on January 6th concentrated in this area, indicating a strategic shift to regain the initiative after repelling the Ukrainian offensive, estimated to have caused as many as 48,000 Ukrainian casualties. Drone warfare remains a central element of the conflict, with extensive use by both sides and reports of evolving tactics, including a confirmed drone attack on an industrial facility in Engels, Saratov region of Russia. The geopolitical landscape is marked by potential shifts in Western support, internal disagreements within the Russian military-industrial complex, and ongoing diplomatic efforts.

Key Developments

Kursk Region:

Renewed Russian Offensive: Russian forces have resumed offensive operations in the Kursk region, with a significant concentration of attacks. This suggests a strategic shift to regain the initiative after repelling the Ukrainian offensive. Russian troops are engaged in battles near Nikolaevka and the outskirts of Staraya Sorochina near Malaya Loknya.
Intensified Drone Warfare: Reports indicate the use of "Lancet" drones by Russian forces against Ukrainian artillery in the Kursk region. A video from the "Podolsk" group shows drone operators targeting enemy positions, resulting in multiple explosions and fires. Drone operators from the "Akhmat" special forces unit are also actively participating in combat operations in this area.
Air and Missile Activity: Air raid alerts have been issued for Voronezh, Belgorod, and Kursk Oblasts due to aviation and missile threats. Ukrainian air defenses reportedly intercepted a Ukrainian missile over Kursk Oblast.

Donetsk Region:

Critical Situation in Toretsk and Kurakhove: Less than 15% of Toretsk remains under Ukrainian control, with battles ongoing along major streets. Ukrainian journalist Butusov reports that Kurakhove is "factually lost," with Ukrainian forces struggling to defend a narrow area, including a thermal power plant.
Russian Advances: Russian forces have captured Shevchenko and Ivanivka, continuing their advance beyond Kurakhove. They are intensifying attacks near Pokrovsk, with progress reported in Novovasylivka, Yelizavetovka, and Baranovka. Russian units are also advancing in the area of Dachnoye, with intense fighting for Yantarnoye.
Drone Warfare: A video from the "Butusov Plus" channel shows Ukrainian infantry using a 10kg TM-62 anti-tank mine against Russian forces hiding in a basement in the Pokrovsk direction.
Casualties near Dzerzhinsk: A video from the "People's Militia of the DPR" channel shows Russian forces capturing a Ukrainian position in Dzerzhinsk, with reports of friendly fire incidents among Ukrainian troops and subsequent casualties during a Russian assault.

Kharkiv Region:

Road Closure in Kherson Suburbs: Bus traffic has been temporarily suspended in the suburbs of Kherson (Naddniprianske, Molodizhne, Inzhenerne) due to increased shelling by Russian forces.
Russian Advances: Russian forces report advances towards Lozova in the Izyum area.

Drone Warfare:

Confirmed Drone Attack in Engels, Saratov Region: A Ukrainian drone attack on an industrial facility in Engels has been confirmed, with the governor acknowledging a downed drone and debris impacting the facility. This marks a significant escalation and demonstrates Ukraine's ability to strike deep inside Russian territory.
Continued Drone Activity: Reports of drone movements across multiple oblasts, including Kharkiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Chernihiv, Poltava, Sumy, Cherkasy, Kyiv, Kirovohrad, Odesa, Mykolaiv, Zhytomyr, Vinnytsia, and Kherson.
Air Defense Engagements: Ukrainian air defense forces are actively engaging hostile drones, with reports of activity near Kyiv and successful interceptions. Five drones were shot down in the Rostov region of Russia.
Drone Strikes: Drone operators of the 36th Army of the "Vostok" group reportedly struck a concentration of enemy personnel near Velyka Novosilka. Ukrainian forces conducted a successful drone operation in the Kursk region, targeting a Russian T-90 tank and an ammunition depot.
New Drone Targets: Russian drones are targeting Chernihiv and Nizhyn.
Drone Attack on Road: At least four vehicles were damaged in a drone attack on a road in Khartsyzk, with reports of injuries. A video from subscribers shows the aftermath of the attack, with a damaged road and a fallen power line.

Geopolitical Developments:

France Calls for Action Against Elon Musk: French Foreign Minister Jean-Noel Barrot has called on the European Commission to take strong measures against Elon Musk, following earlier hints by French President Emmanuel Macron of Musk's interference in European politics.
Ukraine Offers to Replace Hungary in EU and NATO: The Ukrainian Foreign Ministry has stated that Ukraine is ready to take Hungary's place in the EU and NATO if Hungary decides to leave in favor of membership in the CIS or CSTO. This follows accusations from Hungary regarding rising gas prices in the EU due to the termination of Russian gas transit.
Closure of Polish Consulate in St. Petersburg: The Polish Consulate General in St. Petersburg has been officially closed. The Polish Ambassador to Russia, Krzysztof Krajewski, expressed hope for its reopening in "better times."
Potential Meeting Between Scholz and Putin: Reports suggest a possible meeting between German Chancellor Scholz and Russian President Putin before February 23rd.
Poland's Defense Minister on Ramstein Format: The Polish Defense Minister suggests that the current Ramstein format for coordinating military aid to Ukraine may be the last of its kind, with the new US administration potentially proposing a different approach.

Other Developments:

Legal Action Against Ukrainian MP: A Ukrainian MP and his former assistant are facing trial for organizing illegal border crossings. Another case against MP Dubinsky has been sent to court, with charges related to the illegal transfer of his civilian wife's brother across the border.
Asset Reclassification in Moscow: 146 specially protected natural areas in Moscow, including parks like Bittsevsky, Sokolniki, Tsaritsyno, and Serebryany Bor, have been reclassified as specially protected green areas (SPGA), removing them from federal protection and allowing for construction.
Propaganda: A new Russian TV series called "Daisies. Such Tender Love" is recommended as a story about Russian officers in the present time.
Arrest of Mercenaries in Venezuela: Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro announced the arrest of seven foreign "mercenaries," including three Ukrainian citizens, allegedly planning terrorist acts against government officials and infrastructure.
Statements from Ukrainian Officials: The head of the Kherson Regional Military Administration made statements about providing defenders with special equipment to effectively build defensive lines.

Updated Situation

The military situation in Ukraine remains highly volatile and unfavorable for Ukrainian forces. The renewed Russian offensive in the Kursk region signifies a shift in momentum and a potential escalation of the conflict in the north, with intense fighting reported near Nikolaevka and Staraya Sorochina. The continued pressure on Toretsk and Pokrovsk in the Donetsk region highlights the ongoing threat to Ukrainian defensive lines, with Russian forces making incremental gains. The intensification of drone warfare, with reports of new tactics and widespread activity, underscores the evolving nature of the conflict and the critical role of unmanned aerial systems. The confirmed drone attack on an industrial facility in Engels, deep inside Russian territory, represents a significant development and a potential turning point in Ukraine's ability to strike strategic targets.

The geopolitical landscape is becoming increasingly complex, with potential shifts in US and European support for Ukraine, as evidenced by France's call for action against Elon Musk, Ukraine's offer to replace Hungary in the EU and NATO, and Poland's statement on the future of the Ramstein format. The closure of the Polish Consulate in St. Petersburg further reflects the strained relations between Russia and Western countries. The reclassification of protected areas in Moscow suggests potential internal political and economic developments within Russia. The ongoing legal actions against Ukrainian officials highlight internal challenges related to corruption and border security.

The arrest of alleged mercenaries in Venezuela, including Ukrainian citizens, adds another layer of complexity to the international dimension of the conflict, although the veracity of these claims requires further investigation. The statements from Ukrainian officials regarding the provision of equipment for defensive lines indicate ongoing efforts to bolster defenses in key areas.

Overall, the situation requires close monitoring and a reassessment of strategic objectives and resource allocation in light of the recent developments, particularly the renewed Russian offensive in the Kursk region, the continued intensification of drone warfare, and the evolving geopolitical landscape. The coming days and weeks will be critical in determining the future trajectory of the conflict.

Situation Report