Strategic Military Analysis: Ukraine Conflict - January 8th, 2025 - 13:03 UTC

Executive Summary

The military situation in Ukraine as of January 8th, 2025, remains critical for Ukrainian forces. Russian forces have made substantial gains in the Donetsk region, capturing Kurakhove and threatening Toretsk, where Ukrainian control is reportedly below 10%. In the Kursk region, the Ukrainian offensive has been decisively repelled, resulting in heavy losses estimated as high as 48,000. Drone warfare remains a central element of the conflict, with extensive use by both sides and reports of evolving tactics. The geopolitical landscape is marked by potential shifts in Western support, internal disagreements within the Russian military-industrial complex, and ongoing diplomatic efforts. New reports indicate a resurgence of Russian attacks in the Kursk region, with 43% of all attacks on January 6th concentrated there.

Key Developments (New Updates)

Kursk Region:

• Renewed Russian Attacks: Russian forces have renewed their offensive in the Kursk region, with 43% of all attacks on January 6th concentrated in this area. This suggests a strategic shift to regain the initiative after repelling the Ukrainian offensive.
• Increased Air and Missile Activity: Air raid alerts have been issued for Voronezh, Belgorod, and Kursk Oblasts due to aviation and missile threats. Ukrainian air defenses reportedly intercepted a Ukrainian missile over Kursk Oblast.
• Intensified Drone Warfare: Reports indicate the use of "Lancet" drones by Russian forces against Ukrainian artillery in the Kursk region. A video from the "Podolsk" group shows drone operators targeting enemy positions, resulting in multiple explosions and fires.

Donetsk Region:

• Continued Pressure on Toretsk and Pokrovsk: Russian forces maintain pressure on Toretsk and Pokrovsk, with reports of fighting near Zalizne and Pivdenne.
• Drone Warfare: A video from the "Butusov Plus" channel shows Ukrainian infantry using a 10kg TM-62 anti-tank mine against Russian forces hiding in a basement in the Pokrovsk direction.
• Casualties near Dzerzhinsk: A video from the "People's Militia of the DPR" channel shows Russian forces capturing a Ukrainian position in Dzerzhinsk, with reports of friendly fire incidents among Ukrainian troops and subsequent casualties during a Russian assault.

Kharkiv Region:

• Road Closure in Kherson Suburbs: Bus traffic has been temporarily suspended in the suburbs of Kherson (Naddniprianske, Molodizhne, Inzhenerne) due to increased shelling by Russian forces.

Drone Warfare:

• Continued Drone Activity: Reports of drone movements across multiple oblasts, including Kharkiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Chernihiv, Poltava, Sumy, Cherkasy, Kyiv, Kirovohrad, Odesa, Mykolaiv, Zhytomyr, Vinnytsia, and Kherson.
• Air Defense Engagements: Ukrainian air defense forces are actively engaging hostile drones, with reports of activity near Kyiv and successful interceptions.
• Drone Strikes: Drone operators of the 36th Army of the "Vostok" group reportedly struck a concentration of enemy personnel near Velyka Novosilka. Ukrainian forces conducted a successful drone operation in the Kursk region, targeting a Russian T-90 tank and an ammunition depot.
• Drone Activity in Sumy Oblast: Ukrainian air defense forces reportedly shot down 12 Shahed drones over Sumy Oblast during the night.
• New Drone Targets: Russian drones are targeting Chernihiv and Nizhyn.
• Air Defense Engagements: Ukrainian air defense forces successfully detected and neutralized about ten hostile drones near Kyiv. Air defenses are engaging drones in Kyiv Oblast.
• Drone Attack on Road: At least four vehicles were damaged in a drone attack on a road in Khartsyzk, with reports of injuries.

Geopolitical Developments:

• France Calls for Action Against Elon Musk: French Foreign Minister Jean-Noel Barrot has called on the European Commission to take strong measures against Elon Musk, following earlier hints by French President Emmanuel Macron of Musk's interference in European politics.
• Ukraine Offers to Replace Hungary in EU and NATO: The Ukrainian Foreign Ministry has stated that Ukraine is ready to take Hungary's place in the EU and NATO if Hungary decides to leave in favor of membership in the CIS or CSTO. This follows accusations from Hungary regarding rising gas prices in the EU due to the termination of Russian gas transit.
• Closure of Polish Consulate in St. Petersburg: The Polish Consulate General in St. Petersburg has been officially closed. The Polish Ambassador to Russia, Krzysztof Krajewski, expressed hope for its reopening in "better times."

Other Developments:

• Legal Action Against Ukrainian MP: A Ukrainian MP and his former assistant are facing trial for organizing illegal border crossings.
• Asset Reclassification in Moscow: 146 specially protected natural areas in Moscow, including parks like Bittsevsky, Sokolniki, Tsaritsyno, and Serebryany Bor, have been reclassified as specially protected green areas (SPGA), removing them from federal protection and allowing for construction.
• Propaganda: A new Russian TV series called "Daisies. Such Tender Love" is recommended as a story about Russian officers in the present time.

Updated Situation

The military situation in Ukraine remains highly volatile and unfavorable for Ukrainian forces. The renewed Russian offensive in the Kursk region signifies a shift in momentum and a potential escalation of the conflict in the north. The continued pressure on Toretsk and Pokrovsk in the Donetsk region highlights the ongoing threat to Ukrainian defensive lines. The intensification of drone warfare, with reports of new tactics and widespread activity, underscores the evolving nature of the conflict and the critical role of unmanned aerial systems. The geopolitical landscape is becoming increasingly complex, with potential shifts in US and European support for Ukraine, as evidenced by France's call for action against Elon Musk and Ukraine's offer to replace Hungary in the EU and NATO. The closure of the Polish Consulate in St. Petersburg further reflects the strained relations between Russia and Western countries. The reclassification of protected areas in Moscow suggests potential internal political and economic developments within Russia. The ongoing legal actions against Ukrainian officials highlight internal challenges related to corruption and border security. Overall, the situation requires close monitoring and a reassessment of strategic objectives and resource allocation in light of the recent developments, particularly the renewed Russian offensive in the Kursk region and the continued intensification of drone warfare. The coming days and weeks will be critical in determining the future trajectory of the conflict.