Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine

Current Time: Tuesday, January 7, 2025, 09:33:02 UTC

Strategic Overview

The military situation in Ukraine remains extremely volatile, with intense fighting concentrated in the Donetsk and Kursk regions. Russian forces have made significant gains, particularly in the Donetsk region, where they are pressing on multiple fronts. The situation in Kurakhove and Toretsk is especially critical for Ukrainian forces. In the Kursk region, the Ukrainian counteroffensive has stalled, with Russian forces consolidating positions and claiming the capture of several settlements. Drone warfare remains a central element, with extensive use by both sides for reconnaissance, targeting, and attacks.

Key Developments

Donetsk Region

• Kurakhove "Factually Lost": Ukrainian forces are struggling to defend a narrow area of Kurakhove, including a thermal power plant. Concerns are raised over Ukrainian command decisions, drawing parallels to previous defensive actions in Soledar, Bakhmut, Avdiivka, and Vuhledar. Ukrainian journalist Butusov reports that the city is "factually lost."
• Toretsk in Critical Condition: Less than 15% of Toretsk remains under Ukrainian control, with battles ongoing along major streets. Russian forces are advancing into the western and northern parts of the city. Ukrainian forces report repelling 30 Russian attacks in the area. The city is under intense attacks and described as being "on fire." Reports indicate that 90% of the city is now under Russian control.
• Shevchenko Captured: The 114th brigade of Russian forces has reportedly liberated Shevchenko, continuing their advance beyond Kurakhove.
• Ivanivka and Lozova Captured: Russian forces have reportedly captured three villages, including Ivanivka and Shevchenko in Donetsk Oblast, as well as Lozova in Kharkiv Oblast.
• Intensified Attacks near Pokrovsk: Russian forces are intensifying attacks on the Pokrovsk-Konstantinovka highway and making progress in Novovasylivka, Yelizavetovka, and Baranovka.
• Other Key Locations:
  • Lysivka: Russian forces report further advances of 500m towards the central part of the village.
  • Sukhoi Yar: Fighting continues in the area.
  • Southwest of Pokrovsk: Russian troops are advancing from Pisky towards the T-0406 highway and the railway line.
  • Volkovo: Russian artillery reportedly destroyed an enemy ammunition depot. The settlement was subsequently captured by Russian forces.
  • Vozdvyzhenka: After capturing the settlement, Russian forces are advancing further and have reportedly dislodged Ukrainian forces from a stronghold near the road.
  • Krasnoarmiisk Direction: Positional fighting continues in the Krasnoarmiisk-Novoaleksandrivka direction.
  • Belogorovka: Russian forces report successful advances by the 7th Brigade in Belogorovka.
  • Chasiv Yar: Russian forces report they have taken new positions in the northern part of Chasiv Yar, advancing up to 1.5 km.
  • Velyka Novosilka: Ukrainian forces report that a Russian drone control center near Velyka Novosilka was destroyed by drone operators.
  • Sukhoi Yar: Soldiers of the 68th Army Corps destroyed a Ukrainian M-113 armored personnel carrier near Sukhoi Yar.

Kursk Region

• Stalled Ukrainian Counteroffensive: The Ukrainian counteroffensive has stalled, with reports indicating that up to 50% of Ukrainian infantry in the area may consist of prisoners, including those forcibly mobilized.
• Russian Consolidation: Russian forces are consolidating positions, entering Malaya Loknya and advancing in Makhnovka.
• Heavy Losses: Both sides are suffering significant losses. Geolocated footage confirms Ukrainian tactical advances in the southern part of Berdin, as well as in the center of Russkoye Porechnoye and Novosotnitskoye, but simultaneous Russian advances west of Malaya Loknya indicate a fluid situation. Russian sources claim the enemy has lost at least 35 pieces of equipment and more than 200 personnel in the last two days, with 14 Ukrainian soldiers captured near Berdin.
• Intense Aerial Bombardment: Reports indicate an unprecedented number of Russian air sorties, with bombers continuously striking Ukrainian positions. Ukrainian sources dispute the intensity of the air attacks.
• Russian Airstrikes: Russian forces are conducting airstrikes in the border areas of Sumy Oblast, using "Iskander" missiles. This suggests an intensification of attacks in this region and a potential effort to target Ukrainian forces and infrastructure near the border.
• Other Key Locations:
  • Leonidovo: Russian forces are making progress in the forests of the Sudzhansky district and near Leonidovo and Kurilovka.
  • Kruhlenky: The Russian Army is conducting a powerful offensive, storming Kruglenkoye and advancing towards Sudzha, Martynovka, and Cherkasskaya Konopelka.
  • Cherkasskoye Porechnoye: Russian forces advanced to Cherkasskoye Porechnoye. Enemy groups attempted to infiltrate from Cherkasskoye Porechnoye but were repelled by artillery fire.
  • Ukrainian Infiltration Attempts: Ukrainian reserves are being brought into Lebedevka and Sverdlikovo, with the use of "Baba Yaga" agricultural drones for reconnaissance.

Kharkiv Region

• Russian Advances: Russian forces report advances towards Lozova in the Izyum area of Kharkiv Oblast.

Drone Warfare

• Extensive Use: Both sides employ drones extensively for reconnaissance, targeting, and attacks.
• Fiber-Optic Guided Drones: Ukrainian forces are utilizing fiber-optic guided FPV drones in Pokrovsk, targeting military vehicles.
• Riverine Drones: Ukrainian forces are reportedly using riverine drones in the Dnipro River basin, although their range and speed are limited compared to maritime drones.
• Drone Warfare Intensification: The "Sever" group of forces is engaged in fierce battles along the entire front line, using a variety of drones, including fiber-optic and AI-equipped ones.
• Drone Strikes: Drone operators of the 36th Army of the "Vostok" group reportedly struck a concentration of enemy personnel near Velyka Novosilka. Drone operators of the 80th separate reconnaissance battalion "Sparta" destroyed an 82-mm mortar and a field ammunition depot of the enemy near Dzerzhinsk. Ukrainian drone operators targeted the Russian city of Sudzha with bombs and missiles. A Ukrainian drone attack on Horlivka injured seven civilians.
• Zaporizhzhia Oblast Attacks: 380 strikes were reported across 12 settlements in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, including 241 drone attacks on various locations.
• Destruction of a Ukrainian mortar position: A video from a Russian soldier shows the destruction of a Ukrainian mortar position by an FPV drone in the Kursk border area.

Air Attacks and Alerts

• Increased Activity: Increased activity of Russian tactical aviation is reported in the north-eastern direction.
• Threat of Shahed Drones: A threat of Shahed drones is reported in Kharkiv and Sumy Oblasts.
• Air Raid Alerts: Air raid alerts were activated in several regions of Ukraine due to the threat of ballistic missile usage. Air raid alerts were also issued in Dnipropetrovsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kharkiv oblasts due to the threat of missile attacks.
• Russian Airstrikes: Russian forces conducted airstrikes on Ukrainian positions in Izium, Kharkiv Oblast. Russian forces are also launching guided aerial bombs in Sumy Oblast.
• Zolochiv Airstrikes: At least 30 houses, two apartment buildings, power lines, and a car were damaged in Russian airstrikes on Zolochiv, Kharkiv Oblast. A 61-year-old woman suffered an acute stress reaction.

Geopolitical Developments

• US Special Representative's Visit Postponed: The US Special Representative for Ukraine, Keith Kellogg, has postponed his visit to Kyiv until after Trump's inauguration.
• Potential Meeting Between Scholz and Putin: Reports suggest a possible meeting between German Chancellor Scholz and Russian President Putin before February 23rd.
• NATO Maritime Security: NATO countries are forming the Joint Expeditionary Force (JEF) to protect underwater infrastructure, using British software to monitor specific vessels, including those suspected of being part of a "shadow fleet."
• EU Crisis: The Financial Times reports that the EU is facing a security crisis due to Russia and Trump's indifference to Europe.
• China's Potential Technological Advantage: China claims a major breakthrough in laser communication "satellite-to-ground," potentially surpassing Elon Musk's Starlink.

Other Significant Developments

• Ukrainian Military Reports: The Ukrainian General Staff reports significant Russian equipment losses, including 9,710 tanks, 20,189 armored fighting vehicles, 21,710 artillery systems, and 21,708 drones.
• Mobilization Challenges: Reports indicate unlawful conscription of employees from a critical enterprise in the Mykolaiv region. The Ukrainian word of the year for 2024, "busification," reflects the forced and accelerated mobilization process.
• Naval Activity: The Ukrainian Navy reports ongoing naval operations, with a focus on the Mediterranean Sea and continued use of the Kerch Strait by Russian forces.
• North Korean Missile Test: North Korea reportedly launched a suspected ballistic missile. Kim Jong-un asserts that the new missile can overcome Western air defense systems.
• Incidents in Russia: A gas explosion occurred in a residential building in Petrozavodsk, Russia. Telephone scammers are targeting Russian citizens by falsely accusing them of financing the Ukrainian Armed Forces.
• Underwater Cables Damaged: Two underwater cables between Finland and Estonia, damaged in late December, have been repaired. Finnish authorities suspect the tanker Eagle S of damaging the cables with its anchor.
• Russian Soldier Testimonies: Videos featuring Russian soldiers have been released, serving as propaganda to boost morale and promote recruitment.
• Fundraising for Ukrainian Forces: The "DeepState" channel announced a successful fundraising campaign to procure Mavic 3T drones for the 22nd Mechanized Brigade. A campaign is also underway to procure an EW-equipped buggy for an assault unit on the Kharkiv front.
• Ukrainian Veteran Support: 8,000 Ukrainian veterans and their families have received "Ya-Veteran" cards, which provide discounts at businesses in Kryvyi Rih.
• Internal Russian Developments: A scandal involving Russian deputies criticizing those fighting against illegal migration has escalated internal political tensions. Russian authorities have begun confiscating assets belonging to former minister Abyzov, amounting to nearly 24 billion rubles.
• Alleged Information Leak: There are reports of an alleged leak of information about the Kursk counteroffensive, which may have contributed to its failure.
• Ukrainian Soldier Captured: A captured Ukrainian soldier's video provides insights into potential shortcomings in Ukrainian military training, planning, and communication.
• Air Defense Success: Ukrainian air defense forces shot down 28 out of 38 Russian drones launched overnight.
• Access Denied: The mother of a wounded Ukrainian soldier who exposed command fraud is being denied access to her son in the hospital.
• Gas Reserves in Europe: Gas reserves in European underground storage facilities have fallen below 70%, with withdrawal rates 30% higher than the average for the previous five years.
• New Advisor to Ukrainian Minister of Defense: Ukrainian Minister of Defense Rustem Umerov has appointed Oleksandr Kubrakov as his freelance advisor.
• Patriarch Kirill's Sermon: Patriarch Kirill gave a Christmas sermon in which he proclaimed an "alternative path of civilizational development" for Russia and criticized the "sins" of the West.
• Video of Russian City Targeted: A video from the Ukrainian side shows the Russian city of Sudzha being targeted with bombs and missiles.
• Calendar with "Archangel of Special Forces": A calendar featuring the "Archangel of Special Forces" is being distributed among Russian soldiers and their supporters.
• Ukrainian Special Forces Kill North Korean Soldiers: Ukrainian special forces reportedly killed 13 North Korean soldiers in the Kursk region.
• North Korea's Hypersonic Missile Claim: North Korea claims to have successfully launched a new hypersonic missile.
• Criticism of Western Countries: Western countries are criticized for not preventing their microelectronics components from reaching North Korea and Russia.
• Continued Shelling of Alyoshki: A civilian was killed in Alyoshki, Kherson Oblast, due to shelling by Ukrainian forces.
• Russian Military Medic Honored: Major of Medical Service Denis Fedyunin reportedly saved over 30 Russian soldiers under fire and shot down two FPV drones with small arms.
• Ukrainian Forces Seek Help for Vehicle Repairs: Medics from the 47th Mechanized Brigade are seeking financial assistance to repair vehicles used for evacuating wounded soldiers.
• Destruction of Russian Tank: Ukrainian forces from the 63rd Brigade destroyed a Russian tank near Lyman.
• Christmas Greetings from "Archangel of Special Forces": A video message from the "Archangel of Special Forces" extended Christmas greetings to followers.
• Alleged Gift of North Korean Artillery to Russia: A video purportedly shows a North Korean 170-mm self-propelled gun, "Koksan," in a Russian position, with the caption claiming it was a gift from Kim Jong-un.
• Putin's Phone Call with a Girl from Horlivka: Russian President Vladimir Putin made a phone call to a 15-year-old girl from Horlivka, fulfilling her wish to visit St. Petersburg.
• Drop in Trust in Zelensky: A poll by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology (KMIS) shows that trust in Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has nearly halved since the beginning of the war.
• Regional Disparities in Trust: Trust in Zelensky is higher in the west of Ukraine (60%) compared to the south (46%) and east (42%).
• Discussion of Potential NATO Membership for Ukraine: A news article suggests that Putin might agree to Ukraine joining NATO if certain conditions are met, including the withdrawal of US military bases from Eastern Europe and partial lifting of sanctions against Russia.
• North Korean Missile Test: North Korea claims to have successfully launched a new hypersonic missile that reached 12 times the speed of sound and a maximum altitude of 99.8 kilometers.
• Propaganda Video of Putin: A video of Russian President Vladimir Putin attending a religious service at a memorial church is being used to bolster national identity and moral justification for current military actions.
• Propaganda Video with Church Leader: Another video shows Putin meeting with the Russian Orthodox Church leader, where religious objects are blessed for distribution to military commanders.
• Analysis of Combat Zone Image: An image shows Toretsk under siege, with Ukrainian forces attempting a counter-offensive from the south, west, and north.
• Analysis of Iranian Air Defense Drills: Images from Iranian media show the use of various air defense systems during drills near a nuclear site.
• Analysis of Missile Launch Image: An image likely depicts the launch of a rocket-propelled projectile or missile, suggesting possible military operations.
• Analysis of Iranian Mobile Air Defense System: An image shows a deployed Iranian mobile air defense system, indicating readiness for operations in an arid environment.
• Analysis of Mobile Missile Launch System: An image depicts a mobile missile launch system deployed in a mountainous region, suggesting an active area denial or counter-air strategy.
• Analysis of Mobile SAM System: An image shows a mobile surface-to-air missile (SAM) system deployed in a desert environment, indicating air defense capabilities.
• Analysis of Nighttime Missile Launch: An image depicts a nighttime missile launch from a mobile truck platform, indicating an active offensive capability.
• Analysis of Mobile Radar System: An image shows a mobile radar system deployed in an arid, mountainous environment, suggesting ongoing military operations requiring air surveillance and potential air defense capabilities.
• Analysis of Missile/Drone Launch: An image depicts a highly mobile launch system firing a guided missile or drone, emphasizing the capability to conduct precision strikes at extended ranges.
• Analysis of Russian Theater Visit: A video shows a visit to a provincial theater by a group of people, including a young boy, highlighting Russian culture and tradition.
• Analysis of News Article on NATO Expansion: A news article suggests a potential shift in Russia's stance on NATO expansion, indicating that Putin might accept Ukraine joining NATO if the US withdraws its military bases from Eastern Europe.
• Analysis of North Korean Missile Launch: An image depicts the launch of a ballistic missile, likely conducted by North Korea, serving as a public display of military capability.
• Analysis of Russian Military Medic: An image portrays a Russian military medic within the context of an active military operation, emphasizing the importance of medical support.
• Analysis of Ukrainian Vehicle Repair Request: A video shows damaged Ukrainian military vehicles and a soldier's request for financial assistance for repairs, highlighting the logistical challenges facing Ukraine.
• Analysis of Drone Strike on Vehicle: A video documents a military operation in Ukraine in which a drone is used to identify, target, and destroy a moving vehicle.
• Analysis of Russian Orthodox Church Video: A video shows a winter scene of a Russian Orthodox church, with religious imagery and the ringing of church bells, but it has minimal direct relevance to ongoing military operations.
• Analysis of Alleged Gift of North Korean Artillery: A video purportedly shows a North Korean 170-mm self-propelled gun, "Koksan," in a Russian position.
• Analysis of Putin in a Working Environment: An image portrays Vladimir Putin in a moment of active communication, likely related to ongoing military operations.
• Analysis of Graph Showing Declining Trust in Zelensky: A graph shows fluctuating public trust in President Zelensky, with a decline since the initial surge of support following the Russian invasion.
• Analysis of Graph Showing Regional Trust in Zelensky: A graph reveals regional disparities in trust for President Zelensky, with the West exhibiting the highest level of support and the East the lowest.
• Analysis of Ukrainian Security Operation: An image depicts an individual apprehended by the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU), indicating ongoing efforts to neutralize threats to national security.
• Analysis of Seized Communication Equipment: An image shows a large number of mobile phones, SIM cards, a laptop, and an audio recorder, suggesting a potential communication hub used in military operations or criminal activities.
• Analysis of Poem and Drawing: A poem and drawing depict a soldier in a trench during Christmas, highlighting the human aspect of war.
• Analysis of Damaged Church and Fundraising Appeal: A video shows a damaged church in Russia and an appeal for donations for its restoration, highlighting the impact of the conflict on cultural heritage.
• Analysis of Russian EOD Operations: A video depicts a Russian Explosive Ordnance Disposal (EOD) team clearing mines and other explosive devices in a recently liberated area.
• Analysis of Alleged Shelling of Russian Cities: A chat conversation suggests the possibility of Russian forces attacking Russian cities, potentially as a false flag operation or due to internal conflict.
• Analysis of Ukrainian Counteroffensive in Kursk Region: A text describes a significant setback for Ukrainian forces in the Kursk region, with Russian troops making advances and Ukrainian forces suffering heavy losses.
• Analysis of Makeshift Stretcher: A video shows soldiers transporting a wounded individual on a makeshift stretcher, highlighting potential issues with medical supplies and evacuation resources.
• Analysis of Territory Control in Kursk Oblast: An image depicts a line graph showing a decline in the area controlled by Ukrainian forces in the Kursk Oblast, suggesting a successful Russian counter-offensive.
• Analysis of Earthquake Aftermath in Tibet: Images and a video depict the aftermath of a powerful earthquake in Tibet, highlighting the humanitarian crisis and the challenges for rescue operations.
• Analysis of Ukrainian Air Force Operations: A brief message indicates that the Ukrainian Air Force has conducted operations against the enemy in the Zaporizhzhia direction.
• Analysis of Ukrainian Security Operation (2): Images depict members of the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) involved in tactical operations, potentially related to counter-intelligence or law enforcement actions.
• Analysis of Ukrainian Intelligence Report: An image shows a phone screen with a message containing information about military logistics in Dnipro, suggesting active intelligence gathering by Ukrainian forces.
• Analysis of Ukrainian Surveillance Equipment: An image depicts binoculars and a USB device, likely used by Ukrainian intelligence for reconnaissance and data collection.
• Analysis of Potential Targets in Ukraine: An image shows a phone screen with information about military-industrial facilities in Ukraine, suggesting potential targets for strategic strikes.
• Analysis of Ukrainian Maintenance Operations: Images depict Ukrainian military personnel engaged in maintenance and repair of equipment, highlighting the importance of logistics and resourcefulness.
• Analysis of Damaged Ukrainian Tank: An image shows the mangled remains of a Ukrainian tracked vehicle, indicating intense fighting and potential casualties.
• Analysis of Burning House in Ukraine: An image depicts a house engulfed in flames at night, highlighting the impact of the conflict on civilian infrastructure and the potential for displacement.
• Analysis of Snow Removal Operations: An image shows snow removal equipment operating at night, suggesting logistical activities in winter conditions.
• Analysis of Damaged Building (2): An image shows a building heavily damaged by fire, likely the result of a military attack, with an observer nearby.
• Analysis of Damaged Building (3): An image depicts a heavily damaged building with a significant impact crater, indicating active combat operations in the area.
• Analysis of Damaged Building (4): An image shows another heavily damaged building, likely a residential structure, with a partially destroyed porch and signs of impact on the walls.
• Analysis of Ambulance Responding to Casualty: An image depicts an ambulance crew attending to an injured person in a snowy environment, highlighting the strain on medical resources and the human cost of the conflict.
• Analysis of Civilian Medical Emergency: An image shows an ambulance crew and law enforcement assisting a civilian in a medical emergency, indicating a non-military incident.
• Analysis of Alleged Ukrainian Artillery Preparation: A text message claims that Ukrainian forces are conducting a large-scale artillery preparation in the Kursk region, targeting the Russian 810th unit with HIMARS.
• Analysis of Ukrainian Drone Operations: An image and text highlight the extensive use of Ukrainian drones, reportedly hitting 54,000 targets in December 2024.
• Analysis of Hungarian Diplomat: An image shows a man in formal attire, likely a Hungarian diplomat, participating in international discussions.
• Analysis of Ukrainian Military Maintenance: Images depict Ukrainian military personnel engaged in maintenance and repair of equipment, emphasizing the importance of logistics and resourcefulness.
• Analysis of Russian Military Briefing: A text summary of a Russian Ministry of Defense briefing reports on Russian military actions and Ukrainian losses.
• Analysis of Map Showing Russian Control of Toretsk: Images and text claim that Russian forces control approximately 90% of Toretsk, with Ukrainian forces losing the ability to counterattack.
• Analysis of Map Showing Contested Areas: An image depicts a map showing areas of control or influence, likely in the context of the conflict in Ukraine, with a focus on Toretsk, Naxalivka, and Babalka.
• Analysis of Map with Military Activity Indicators: An image shows a map of the Toretsk area with indicators of military activity, including troop movements, targeted areas, and damaged infrastructure.
• Analysis of Earthquake Aftermath in Tibet (2): A video shows the aftermath of an earthquake in a Tibetan town, with significant damage to buildings and infrastructure.
• Analysis of Earthquake Aftermath in Tibet (3): Another video depicts the aftermath of an earthquake in Tibet, highlighting the humanitarian crisis and the challenges for rescue operations.
• Analysis of Ukrainian Air Force Operations (2): A brief message indicates that the Ukrainian Air Force has carried out operations against the enemy in the Zaporizhzhia direction.
• Analysis of Ukrainian Security Operation (3): Images depict members of the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) involved in tactical operations, potentially related to counter-intelligence or law enforcement actions.
• Analysis of Ukrainian Intelligence Report (2): An image shows a phone screen with a message containing information about military logistics in Dnipro, suggesting active intelligence gathering by Ukrainian forces.
• Analysis of Ukrainian Surveillance Equipment (2): An image depicts binoculars and a USB device, likely used by Ukrainian intelligence for reconnaissance and data collection.
• Analysis of Potential Targets in Ukraine (2): An image shows a phone screen with information about military-industrial facilities in Ukraine, suggesting potential targets for strategic strikes.
• Analysis of Ukrainian Maintenance Operations (2): Images depict Ukrainian military personnel engaged in maintenance and repair of equipment, highlighting the importance of logistics and resourcefulness.
• Analysis of Damaged Ukrainian Tank (2): An image shows the mangled remains of a Ukrainian tracked vehicle, indicating intense fighting and potential casualties.
• Analysis of Burning House in Ukraine (2): An image depicts a house engulfed in flames at night, highlighting the impact of the conflict on civilian infrastructure and the potential for displacement.
• Analysis of Snow Removal Operations (2): An image shows snow removal equipment operating at night, suggesting logistical activities in winter conditions.
• Analysis of Damaged Building (5): An image shows a building heavily damaged by fire, likely the result of a military attack, with an observer nearby.
• Analysis of Damaged Building (6): An image depicts a heavily damaged building with a significant impact crater, indicating active combat operations in the area.
• Analysis of Damaged Building (7): An image shows another heavily damaged building, likely a residential structure, with a partially destroyed porch and signs of impact on the walls.
• Analysis of Ambulance Responding to Casualty (2): An image depicts an ambulance crew attending to an injured person in a snowy environment, highlighting the strain on medical resources and the human cost of the conflict.
• Analysis of Civilian Medical Emergency (2): An image shows an ambulance crew and law enforcement assisting a civilian in a medical emergency, indicating a non-military incident.
• Analysis of Alleged Ukrainian Artillery Preparation (2): A text message claims that Ukrainian forces are conducting a large-scale artillery preparation in the Kursk region, targeting the Russian 810th unit with HIMARS.
• Analysis of Ukrainian Drone Operations (2): An image and text highlight the extensive use of Ukrainian drones, reportedly hitting 54,000 targets in December 2024.
• Analysis of Hungarian Diplomat (2): An image shows a man in formal attire, likely a Hungarian diplomat, participating in international discussions.
• Analysis of Ukrainian Military Maintenance (2): Images depict Ukrainian military personnel engaged in maintenance and repair of equipment, emphasizing the importance of logistics and resourcefulness.
• Analysis of Russian Military Briefing (2): A text summary of a Russian Ministry of Defense briefing reports on Russian military actions and Ukrainian losses.
• Analysis of Map Showing Russian Control of Toretsk (2): Images and text claim that Russian forces control approximately 90% of Toretsk, with Ukrainian forces losing the ability to counterattack.
• Analysis of Map Showing Contested Areas (2): An image depicts a map showing areas of control or influence, likely in the context of the conflict in Ukraine, with a focus on Toretsk, Naxalivka, and Babalka.
• Analysis of Map with Military Activity Indicators (2): An image shows a map of the Toretsk area with indicators of military activity, including troop movements, targeted areas, and damaged infrastructure.
• Analysis of Earthquake Aftermath in Tibet (4): A video shows the aftermath of an earthquake in a Tibetan town, with significant damage to buildings and infrastructure.
• Analysis of Earthquake Aftermath in Tibet (5): Another video depicts the aftermath of an earthquake in Tibet, highlighting the humanitarian crisis and the challenges for rescue operations.
• New Developments:
  • Power Outages in Prykarpattia: Mass power outages have been reported in the Prykarpattia region of Ukraine due to severe weather conditions, including strong winds. This has resulted in damage to power lines and the loss of electricity in several settlements.
  • Russian Military Claims: The Russian Ministry of Defense claims that its forces have hit the infrastructure of military airfields, weapons depots, and troop concentrations in 164 regions of Ukraine. They also report shooting down six HIMARS rockets and 50 Ukrainian drones.
  • Ukrainian Acknowledgment of Losses in Kurakhove: Ukrainian sources, including journalist Yuriy Butusov, are beginning to acknowledge the loss of Kurakhove, comparing it to previous defensive failures in Bakhmut, Soledar, Vuhledar, and Avdiivka.
  • Alleged Attack on Russian Territory: A video purportedly shows Ukrainian forces attacking the city of Sudzha in the Kursk region of Russia.
  • Capture of Ukrainian Equipment: An image suggests that Ukrainian forces attempted to destroy a religious cross with an M577 armored vehicle but failed, with the vehicle overturning. The text claims that many of these vehicles have been captured by Russian forces in the Kursk region.
  • Reported Ukrainian Drone Successes: General Syrskyi claims that Ukrainian drones hit 54,000 targets in December 2024.
  • Statement from Hungarian Foreign Minister: Hungarian Foreign Minister Péter Szijjártó stated that Ukraine's decision to halt the transit of Russian gas has put Europe's economy in a difficult position, leading to a 20% increase in fuel prices.
  • Ukrainian Military Maintenance Efforts: Images and text highlight the efforts of Ukrainian military personnel to repair and maintain equipment, emphasizing the importance of logistics and resourcefulness.
  • Russian Military Briefing: The Russian Ministry of Defense claims that its forces have repelled multiple Ukrainian attacks and inflicted significant losses on Ukrainian troops and equipment.
  • Claims of Russian Control over Toretsk: Russian sources claim that their forces now control approximately 90% of Toretsk, with Ukrainian forces unable to counterattack.
  • Earthquake in Tibet: Videos and reports document the aftermath of a powerful earthquake in Tibet, with significant damage and casualties reported.

Updated Situation

The military situation in Ukraine remains highly volatile and precarious for Ukrainian forces. Russian forces are making significant advances in the Donetsk region, particularly around Pokrovsk, Kurakhove, and Toretsk, while the Ukrainian counteroffensive in the Kursk region has stalled. Ukrainian forces are facing intense pressure, particularly in Kurakhove and Toretsk, where they are struggling to maintain control. The introduction of riverine drones by Ukrainian forces adds a new dimension to the conflict, although their current capabilities are limited. The geopolitical landscape is becoming increasingly complex, with potential shifts in US and European policy towards Ukraine. The coming days will be crucial in determining the trajectory of the conflict and the potential for further escalation. The high number of reported Russian casualties, the use of prisoners in combat, the escalating tensions between the US and China, and the continued fighting in both the Donetsk and Kursk regions highlight the complex and multifaceted nature of the conflict. The damage to civilian infrastructure in Kharkiv Oblast, particularly in Zolochiv, underscores the humanitarian cost of the war. The potential meeting between Scholz and Putin adds another layer of uncertainty to the situation. The recent testimonies from Russian soldiers provide insights into their motivations and experiences, serving as a propaganda tool for recruitment and morale-boosting. The fundraising efforts for Ukrainian forces demonstrate the continued support from various channels. The new messages emphasize the critical situation in Kurakhove, with reports indicating that the city is "factually lost" and Ukrainian forces are struggling to defend a narrow area, including a thermal power plant. The messages highlight concerns over Ukrainian command decisions, drawing parallels to previous defensive actions in Soledar, Bakhmut, Avdiivka, and Vuhledar. The reported capture of Shevchenko by Russian forces and the continued offensive actions further complicate the situation for Ukrainian defenders. The messages also highlight the ongoing fighting in the Kursk region and the use of drones for reconnaissance and attacks. The postponement of the US Special Representative's visit to Kyiv adds another layer of uncertainty to the geopolitical landscape. The fundraising campaign for the EW-equipped buggy underscores the importance of technological advancements in modern warfare and the need for rapid adaptation to evolving threats. The continued use of "Буханки" vans highlights the enduring role of these versatile vehicles in various military roles.

The new messages add the following updates:

• Mass power outages in Prykarpattia, Ukraine: Severe weather has caused widespread power outages in the Prykarpattia region, affecting multiple settlements.
• Russian military claims significant strikes: The Russian Ministry of Defense claims to have struck numerous Ukrainian military targets, including airfields, weapons depots, and troop concentrations.
• Ukrainian acknowledgment of the loss of Kurakhove: Ukrainian sources are increasingly admitting that Kurakhove is "factually lost," with comparisons being made to previous defensive failures.
• Alleged Ukrainian attack on Sudzha, Russia: A video purportedly shows Ukrainian forces attacking the city of Sudzha in Russia's Kursk region.
• Capture of Ukrainian M577 armored vehicles: Reports suggest that Ukrainian forces attempted to destroy a religious cross with an M577 but failed, and many of these vehicles have been captured by Russian forces.
• Ukrainian General Syrskyi claims 54,000 targets hit by drones in December: This highlights the extensive use of drones in Ukrainian military operations.
• Hungarian Foreign Minister criticizes Ukraine's halt of Russian gas transit: Hungary's Foreign Minister claims that Ukraine's actions have negatively impacted Europe's economy and led to increased fuel prices.
• Russian forces claim to control 90% of Toretsk: Russian sources assert that their forces have taken control of the vast majority of Toretsk, a strategically important city in the Donetsk region.
• Ukrainian forces repel Russian assaults in Kherson and Kursk regions: The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports repelling 2 Russian assaults in the Kherson axis and 94 in the Kursk region.
• New missile test by North Korea: North Korea claims to have tested a new ballistic missile with a hypersonic glide vehicle, capable of reaching speeds 12 times the speed of sound and traveling 1500 km.
• Russian military uses damaged Ukrainian M577 as a symbol: A photo caption suggests that a damaged Ukrainian M577, which reportedly failed to destroy a religious cross, is being used as a symbol of Russian resilience.
• Ukrainian forces reportedly using improvised stretcher: A video shows Ukrainian soldiers using a makeshift stretcher with a single wheel to evacuate a wounded comrade, highlighting the challenges they face in the field.
• Former Russian military commissar killed in action: A former Russian military commissar, previously convicted for taking bribes, was reportedly killed in action after signing a contract to fight in Ukraine.
• Russian airstrikes reported in multiple locations: Russian aviation reportedly conducted airstrikes in several areas, including Orishanka, Hraniv, Udy, Zolochiv, and others.
• Clashes reported along multiple axes: Clashes between Ukrainian and Russian forces were reported along the Kharkiv, Kupyansk, Lyman, Sieversk, Kramatorsk, Toretsk, Pokrovsk, Kurakhivka, Vremivka, and Orikhiv axes.
• Finnish blogger to visit Donetsk: A Finnish blogger announced plans to visit Donetsk during the Russian Christmas holiday.
• Russian soldier complains about misuse of vehicles: A Russian soldier expressed concern about the misuse of vehicles provided as humanitarian aid, urging commanders to address the issue.
• Earthquake in Tibet: Reports and videos document the aftermath of a powerful earthquake in Tibet, with significant damage and casualties reported.
• Ukrainian Security Service neutralizes FSB agent network: The SBU reportedly neutralized an FSB agent network that was collecting information on officials from international organizations and volunteers in Kyiv, Dnipro, and Odesa.

The overall situation remains highly volatile, with both sides making claims and counterclaims. The reported Russian advances in the Donetsk region, particularly in Kurakhove and Toretsk, are significant and could lead to further shifts in the front lines. The continued use of drones by both sides highlights the evolving nature of the conflict. The geopolitical implications of the conflict continue to be felt, with potential shifts in US and European policy towards Ukraine. The humanitarian cost of the war is also evident, with damage to civilian infrastructure and reports of casualties. The new information about the earthquake in Tibet adds another dimension to the complex geopolitical landscape, potentially impacting regional stability and humanitarian efforts.

Recommendations

1. Urgently reinforce Toretsk and Pokrovsk: The situation in Toretsk is critical, and immediate action is needed to prevent its complete capture by Russian forces. Deploy additional troops, anti-tank weapons, and air defense systems to Toretsk and Pokrovsk to counter the Russian advance. Reinforce defensive positions in Kurakhove to maintain control of the remaining territory and prevent further Russian advances.
2. Address the information leak: Investigate the alleged leak of information about the Kursk counteroffensive and take appropriate measures to prevent future breaches of operational security.
3. Enhance counter-drone capabilities: Given the increasing use of FPV drones by