Sitrep 2025-01-07 09:07:31

Strategic Overview

As of January 7, 2025, the military situation in Ukraine is highly volatile, particularly in the Donetsk and Kursk regions. Russian forces are making significant advances in Donetsk, especially near Pokrovsk, Kurakhove, and Toretsk. Kurakhove is now considered "factually lost," with only a small area, including a thermal power plant, under Ukrainian control. The situation in Toretsk is critical, with less than 15% of the city remaining in Ukrainian hands. In the Kursk region, the Ukrainian counteroffensive has stalled, and Russian forces are consolidating positions, claiming the capture of several settlements, including Malaya Loknya and Makhnovka.

Ukrainian forces are conducting assaults in urban areas of Kurakhove and towards Dachne and Yantarne, trying to localize and eliminate Russian units that have infiltrated their defenses. Russian forces are consolidating positions in Kurakhove and have reportedly captured Shevchenko, continuing their offensive beyond the city.

Drone warfare remains a central element, with extensive use by both sides. Ukrainian forces report the successful use of fiber-optic guided FPV drones in Pokrovsk and the introduction of riverine drones in the Dnipro River basin. Russian tactical aviation activity is increasing in the north-eastern direction, with air raid alerts activated in several regions due to the threat of ballistic missile usage. Russian airstrikes have caused significant damage to civilian infrastructure in Kharkiv Oblast, notably in Zolochiv.

Geopolitical developments include the postponement of the US Special Representative's visit to Kyiv until after Trump's inauguration, suggesting a potential shift in US policy towards Ukraine. The US Treasury Secretary's threat of "significant consequences" for China if it aids Russia highlights escalating tensions. Reports also indicate a potential meeting between German Chancellor Scholz and Russian President Putin before February 23rd. There is also a concerted effort by NATO to increase maritime security in the Baltic Sea.

Key Developments

Donetsk Region

Kurakhove "Factually Lost": Ukrainian forces are struggling to defend a narrow area of Kurakhove, including a thermal power plant. Concerns are raised over Ukrainian command decisions, drawing parallels to previous defensive actions in Soledar, Bakhmut, Avdiivka, and Vuhledar.
Shevchenko Captured: The 114th brigade of Russian forces has reportedly liberated Shevchenko, continuing their advance beyond Kurakhove. Video and images depict the aftermath of fighting, with Russian forces planting a flag in the center of Shevchenko.
Toretsk in Critical Condition: Less than 15% of Toretsk remains under Ukrainian control. Battles are ongoing along major streets, with Russian forces advancing into the western and northern parts of the city. Ukrainian forces report repelling 30 Russian attacks in the area. The city is under intense attacks and described as being "on fire."
Intensified Attacks near Pokrovsk: Russian forces are intensifying attacks on the Pokrovsk-Konstantinovka highway and making progress in Novovasylivka, Yelizavetovka, and Baranovka.
ISW Assessment: The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) considers the encirclement of Pokrovsk a key Russian operational goal.
Lysivka: Russian forces report further advances of 500m towards the central part of the village.
Sukhoi Yar: Fighting continues in the area.
Southwest of Pokrovsk: Russian troops are advancing from Pisky towards the T-0406 highway and the railway line.
Volkovo: Russian artillery reportedly destroyed an enemy ammunition depot. The settlement was subsequently captured by Russian forces.
Vozdvyzhenka: After capturing the settlement, Russian forces are advancing further and have reportedly dislodged Ukrainian forces from a stronghold near the road.
Krasnoarmiisk Direction: Positional fighting continues in the Krasnoarmiisk-Novoaleksandrivka direction.
Belogorovka: Russian forces report successful advances by the 7th Brigade in Belogorovka.
Chasiv Yar: Russian forces report they have taken new positions in the northern part of Chasiv Yar, advancing up to 1.5 km.
Velyka Novosilka: An operational video from the 14th Guards Special Forces Brigade of the Vostok group showcases their drones destroying enemy observation and communication equipment near Velyka Novosilka. Ukrainian forces report that a Russian drone control center near Velyka Novosilka was destroyed by drone operators.
Sukhoi Yar: Soldiers of the 68th Army Corps destroyed a Ukrainian M-113 armored personnel carrier near Sukhoi Yar.

Kursk Region

Stalled Ukrainian Counteroffensive: The Ukrainian counteroffensive has stalled, with reports indicating that up to 50% of Ukrainian infantry in the area may consist of prisoners, including those forcibly mobilized.
Russian Consolidation: Russian forces are consolidating positions, entering Malaya Loknya and advancing in Makhnovka.
Heavy Losses: Both sides are suffering significant losses. Geolocated footage confirms Ukrainian tactical advances in the southern part of Berdin, as well as in the center of Russkoye Porechnoye and Novosotnitskoye, but simultaneous Russian advances west of Malaya Loknya indicate a fluid situation.
Intense Aerial Bombardment: Reports indicate an unprecedented number of Russian air sorties, with bombers continuously striking Ukrainian positions. Ukrainian sources dispute the intensity of the air attacks.
Russian Claims: Russian sources claim the enemy has lost at least 35 pieces of equipment and more than 200 personnel in the last two days, with 14 Ukrainian soldiers captured near Berdin.
Leonidovo: Russian forces are making progress in the forests of the Sudzhansky district and near Leonidovo and Kurilovka.
Kruhlenky: The Russian Army is conducting a powerful offensive, storming Kruglenkoye and advancing towards Sudzha, Martynovka, and Cherkasskaya Konopelka.
Cherkasskoye Porechnoye: Russian forces advanced to Cherkasskoye Porechnoye. Enemy groups attempted to infiltrate from Cherkasskoye Porechnoye but were repelled by artillery fire.
Ka-52M Helicopters: Ka-52M helicopters reportedly disrupted a rotation of Ukrainian units in the border area.
Ukrainian Infiltration Attempts: Ukrainian reserves are being brought into Lebedevka and Sverdlikovo, with the use of "Baba Yaga" agricultural drones for reconnaissance.
Capture of Ukrainian Soldiers: Video footage shows the capture of Ukrainian soldiers from the 82nd Brigade in the Kursk region.

Kharkiv Region

Russian Advances: Russian forces report advances towards Lozova in the Izyum area of Kharkiv Oblast.

Drone Warfare

Extensive Use: Both sides employ drones extensively for reconnaissance, targeting, and attacks.
Fiber-Optic Guided Drones: Ukrainian forces are utilizing fiber-optic guided FPV drones in Pokrovsk, targeting military vehicles.
Destruction of Retransmitter: A Ukrainian FPV drone retransmitter was reportedly destroyed by a Russian drone in the Kursk region.
Overnight Attacks: 12 Ukrainian drones were destroyed over Russian regions overnight. Russian forces also carried out strikes on various Ukrainian regions.
Ukrainian Drone Successes: Ukrainian air defense forces shot down 10 Russian drones over Cherkasy Oblast and 12 Shahed drones over Sumy Oblast. Ukrainian forces ("Shadow" unit) successfully identified and destroyed two enemy artillery pieces using drones. 13 North Korean soldiers were reportedly killed by Ukrainian drone operators in the Kursk region.
New Riverine Drones: Ukrainian forces are reportedly using riverine drones in the Dnipro River basin, although their range and speed are limited compared to maritime drones.
Drone Warfare Intensification: The "Sever" group of forces is engaged in fierce battles along the entire front line, using a variety of drones, including fiber-optic and AI-equipped ones.
Drone Strikes: Drone operators of the 36th Army of the "Vostok" group reportedly struck a concentration of enemy personnel near Velyka Novosilka. Drone operators of the 80th separate reconnaissance battalion "Sparta" destroyed an 82-mm mortar and a field ammunition depot of the enemy near Dzerzhinsk. Ukrainian drone operators targeted the Russian city of Sudzha with bombs and missiles. A Ukrainian drone attack on Horlivka injured seven civilians.
Zaporizhzhia Oblast Attacks: 380 strikes were reported across 12 settlements in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, including 241 drone attacks on various locations.

Air Attacks and Alerts

Increased Activity: Increased activity of Russian tactical aviation is reported in the north-eastern direction.
Threat of Shahed Drones: A threat of Shahed drones is reported in Kharkiv and Sumy Oblasts.
Air Raid Alerts: Air raid alerts were activated in several regions of Ukraine due to the threat of ballistic missile usage. Air raid alerts were also issued in Dnipropetrovsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kharkiv oblasts due to the threat of missile attacks.
Russian Airstrikes: Russian forces conducted airstrikes on Ukrainian positions in Izium, Kharkiv Oblast. Russian forces are also launching guided aerial bombs in Sumy Oblast.
Zolochiv Airstrikes: At least 30 houses, two apartment buildings, power lines, and a car were damaged in Russian airstrikes on Zolochiv, Kharkiv Oblast. A 61-year-old woman suffered an acute stress reaction.

Geopolitical Developments

US Special Representative's Visit Postponed: The US Special Representative for Ukraine, Keith Kellogg, has postponed his visit to Kyiv until after Trump's inauguration. This suggests a potential shift in US policy towards Ukraine under the incoming administration.
Zelensky's Statements: Zelensky criticizes the imposition of sanctions against Russia and expresses frustration with the security guarantors of the Budapest Memorandum.
China's Potential Technological Advantage: China claims a major breakthrough in laser communication "satellite-to-ground," potentially surpassing Elon Musk's Starlink.
US-China Tensions: The US Treasury Secretary threatened China with "significant consequences" for aiding Russia in the conflict with Ukraine.
Potential Meeting Between Scholz and Putin: Reports suggest a possible meeting between German Chancellor Scholz and Russian President Putin before February 23rd.
Austria: Reports indicate that the nationalist Freedom Party of Austria (FPÖ) has been tasked with forming a new government in Austria, potentially impacting the country's stance on the conflict.
Bulgaria: The Bulgarian government is experiencing political instability, with a high level of public distrust and dissatisfaction with the EU's influence.
NATO Maritime Security: NATO countries are forming the Joint Expeditionary Force (JEF) to protect underwater infrastructure, using British software to monitor specific vessels, including those suspected of being part of a "shadow fleet." The JEF has begun Operation Nordic Warden to protect communications from sabotage in the English Channel, Kattegat Strait, and the North and Baltic Seas.
EU Crisis: The Financial Times reports that the EU is facing a security crisis due to Russia and Trump's indifference to Europe.
Patriarch Kirill's Sermon: The head of the Russian Orthodox Church, Patriarch Kirill, gave a Christmas sermon in which he proclaimed an "alternative path of civilizational development" for Russia and criticized the "sins" of the West. He did not directly mention the war in Ukraine but implied that Russia had challenged "many great and powerful" forces. He also met with Putin during the Christmas service.

Other Significant Developments

Ukrainian Military Reports: The Ukrainian General Staff reports that Russian forces have suffered approximately 800,010 casualties since the beginning of the conflict, with 1,970 in the past 24 hours. They also report significant Russian equipment losses, including 9,710 tanks, 20,189 armored fighting vehicles, 21,710 artillery systems, and 21,708 drones.
Mobilization Challenges: Reports indicate unlawful conscription of employees from a critical enterprise in the Mykolaiv region. The Ukrainian word of the year for 2024, "busification," reflects the forced and accelerated mobilization process, highlighting concerns over the prioritization of quantity over quality in recruitment.
Lawsuit Against Russian MoD: The Degtyarev machine-gun plant has filed a lawsuit against the Russian Ministry of Defense.
Propaganda Efforts: Russian media outlets continue propaganda efforts, including the release of a new video from the group "Русский строй" titled "Рать."
Naval Activity: The Ukrainian Navy reports ongoing naval operations, with a focus on the Mediterranean Sea and continued use of the Kerch Strait by Russian forces. One Russian warship, a "Kalibr" missile carrier without missiles, was detected in the Black Sea. No enemy ships were present in the Sea of Azov.
North Korean Missile Test: North Korea reportedly launched a suspected ballistic missile.
Incidents in Russia: A gas explosion occurred in a residential building in Petrozavodsk, Russia. Telephone scammers are targeting Russian citizens by falsely accusing them of financing the Ukrainian Armed Forces. Scammers are also using deepfake technology to impersonate relatives, superiors, and even officials like Mayor Sobyanin.
US Interest in Greenland: The US, under President-elect Donald Trump, has renewed interest in purchasing Greenland from Denmark.
Earthquake in Tibet: The number of casualties from an earthquake in Tibet has risen to 53, with 62 injured.
Taiwan Airspace Incursions: In 2024, Taiwan's air defense systems recorded 5,111 sorties by Chinese aircraft, with 3,075 entering the Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ) and 114 balloon flights.
Underwater Cables Damaged: Two underwater cables between Finland and Estonia, damaged in late December, have been repaired. Finnish authorities suspect the tanker Eagle S, sailing under the flag of the Cook Islands, of damaging the cables with its anchor. Eight of the 24 crew members are suspected of involvement and are prohibited from leaving the country. The EU considers the tanker part of Russia's "shadow fleet" used to circumvent sanctions.
Russian Soldier Testimonies: Videos featuring Russian soldiers, including "Smile," "Kurgan," Arkady Dorofeev, "Raskol," and Rulan Evloev, have been released, serving as propaganda to boost morale and promote recruitment. These videos highlight the soldiers' motivations, experiences, and supposed superiority over Ukrainian forces. They also emphasize the use of drones and the challenges of urban warfare.
Fundraising for Ukrainian Forces: The "DeepState" channel announced a successful fundraising campaign to procure Mavic 3T drones for the 22nd Mechanized Brigade, highlighting continued efforts to support Ukrainian forces through crowdfunding. A campaign is also underway to procure an EW-equipped buggy for an assault unit on the Kharkiv front.
Religious Observances: A message from Kotsnews extended Christmas greetings to Orthodox followers, indicating the role of religious observances in the context of the ongoing conflict.
Historical Commemoration: A post from "Basurin o Glavnom" commemorated the 1988 battle at Height 3234 during the Afghan War, emphasizing historical military events and heroism.
Ukrainian Petition: A petition to impose sanctions against Andriy Portnov has been created on the website of the Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine.
Digital Professions in Russia: From January 1, 2025, any citizen of the Russian Federation can receive a digital profession for free by filling out a form and passing a test.
Ukrainian Veteran Support: 8,000 Ukrainian veterans and their families have received "Ya-Veteran" cards, which provide discounts at 282 businesses in Kryvyi Rih.
Russian Language Debate: A Russian State Duma deputy compared Anglicisms in speech to migrants, supporting a bill on the protection of the Russian language.

Conclusion

The situation in Ukraine remains highly volatile and precarious for Ukrainian forces. Russian forces are making significant advances in the Donetsk region, particularly around Pokrovsk, Kurakhove, and Toretsk, while the Ukrainian counteroffensive in the Kursk region has stalled. Ukrainian forces are facing intense pressure, particularly in Kurakhove and Toretsk, where they are struggling to maintain control. The introduction of riverine drones by Ukrainian forces adds a new dimension to the conflict, although their current capabilities are limited. The geopolitical landscape is becoming increasingly complex, with potential shifts in US and European policy towards Ukraine. The coming days will be crucial in determining the trajectory of the conflict and the potential for further escalation. The high number of reported Russian casualties, the use of prisoners in combat, the escalating tensions between the US and China, and the continued fighting in both the Donetsk and Kursk regions highlight the complex and multifaceted nature of the conflict. The damage to civilian infrastructure in Kharkiv Oblast, particularly in Zolochiv, underscores the humanitarian cost of the war. The potential meeting between Scholz and Putin adds another layer of uncertainty to the situation. The recent testimonies from Russian soldiers provide insights into their motivations and experiences, serving as a propaganda tool for recruitment and morale-boosting. The fundraising efforts for Ukrainian forces demonstrate the continued support from various channels. The new messages emphasize the critical situation in Kurakhove, with reports indicating that the city is "factually lost" and Ukrainian forces are struggling to defend a narrow area, including a thermal power plant. The messages highlight concerns over Ukrainian command decisions, drawing parallels to previous defensive actions in Soledar, Bakhmut, Avdiivka, and Vuhledar. The reported capture of Shevchenko by Russian forces and the continued offensive actions further complicate the situation for Ukrainian defenders. The messages also highlight the ongoing fighting in the Kursk region and the use of drones for reconnaissance and attacks. The postponement of the US Special Representative's visit to Kyiv adds another layer of uncertainty to the geopolitical landscape. The fundraising campaign for the EW-equipped buggy underscores the importance of technological advancements in modern warfare and the need for rapid adaptation to evolving threats. The continued use of "Буханки" vans highlights the enduring role of these versatile vehicles in various military roles.

Updated Situation

The military situation in Ukraine remains extremely precarious for Ukrainian forces, with Russian troops making significant advances in the Donetsk region and consolidating their positions in the Kursk region. The capture of Kurakhove and Ivanivka, along with the advances towards Pokrovsk and Toretsk, are critical developments that could lead to further breakthroughs for Russian forces. The Ukrainian counteroffensive in the Kursk region appears to have been unsuccessful, resulting in heavy losses and a potential setback for Ukrainian forces.

Drone warfare continues to be a central element of the conflict, with both sides employing drones extensively for reconnaissance, targeting, and attacks. The continued drone activity across multiple regions of Ukraine, as indicated by the new messages, highlights the persistent threat and the widespread nature of aerial engagements. The lifting of the air raid alert in Kyiv provides a temporary reprieve for the capital, but the overall threat remains.

The reported airstrikes in Sumy Oblast, using "Iskander" missiles, suggest an intensification of attacks in this region and a potential effort by Russian forces to target Ukrainian forces and infrastructure near the border. The internal political developments within Russia, including the scandal involving the deputies and the confiscation of assets, could potentially impact decision-making, resource allocation, and public perception regarding the conflict.

The account of the captured Ukrainian soldier provides valuable intelligence on the potential shortcomings in Ukrainian military training, planning, and communication. This information could be exploited by Russian forces to further undermine Ukrainian morale and gain a strategic advantage.

The new messages also highlight the following key developments:

Russian forces are conducting airstrikes in the border areas of Sumy Oblast, using "Iskander" missiles. This suggests an intensification of attacks in this region and a potential effort to target Ukrainian forces and infrastructure near the border.
Internal political tensions within Russia have escalated due to a scandal involving deputies criticizing those fighting against illegal migration. This could potentially impact decision-making and public perception regarding the conflict in Ukraine.
Russian authorities have begun confiscating assets belonging to former minister Abyzov, amounting to nearly 24 billion rubles. While not directly related to the conflict, this could potentially impact the allocation of resources and the overall economic situation within Russia.
A captured Ukrainian soldier's video provides insights into potential shortcomings in Ukrainian military training, planning, and communication. The soldier's account suggests that he and his unit were sent on a "meat assault" without a clear understanding of their objectives or the situation on the ground. This information could be used by Russian forces for propaganda purposes and to further undermine Ukrainian morale.
Ukrainian air defense forces shot down 28 out of 38 Russian drones launched overnight. This indicates a high level of effectiveness in countering Russian drone attacks but also highlights the intensity of the aerial threat.
The mother of a wounded Ukrainian soldier who exposed command fraud is being denied access to her son in the hospital. This incident could further damage morale among Ukrainian troops and raise concerns about the treatment of whistleblowers.
Russian forces have reportedly captured three villages in the Kharkiv and Donetsk regions, according to Deep State. This includes Lozova in the Izyum district of Kharkiv Oblast, as well as Ivanivka and Shevchenko in Donetsk Oblast.
A map analysis suggests that the area around Kurakhove is experiencing intense military engagements, with Russian forces attempting to encircle the town. The arrows on the map indicate a possible direction of attack and a place for active military operations.
The KMVA (Kyiv City Military Administration) is planning to address issues related to the operation of public transport during air raids, overseas travel for officials, and the removal of damaged vehicles from the streets. This indicates ongoing efforts to improve the functioning of the city under wartime conditions.
A captured Ukrainian soldier from the 110th Brigade provided details about his unit's poor conditions and the decision to surrender. He reported that his unit was left without food and water for 10 days and that the command was known for its inhumane treatment of subordinates.
Four civilians were injured in Horlivka due to a Ukrainian drone attack.
A video from a Russian soldier shows the destruction of a Ukrainian mortar position by an FPV drone in the Kursk border area.
8,000 Ukrainian veterans and their families have received "Ya-Veteran" cards, which provide discounts at businesses in Kryvyi Rih. This initiative aims to support veterans and their families and is part of a broader policy that includes 70 different measures.
The Ukrainian OSINT project "Butusov Plus" is collecting signatures for a petition to impose sanctions against Andriy Portnov. The petition has gathered almost 15,000 out of the 25,000 required signatures.
A video shows the destruction of a Ukrainian mortar and ammunition depot near Dzerzhinsk by Russian drone operators.
Gas reserves in European underground storage facilities have fallen below 70%, with withdrawal rates 30% higher than the average for the previous five years.
Ukrainian Minister of Defense Rustem Umerov has appointed Oleksandr Kubrakov as his freelance advisor. Kubrakov's experience in infrastructure and logistics is expected to help improve the supply system in the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
Patriarch Kirill gave a Christmas sermon in which he proclaimed an "alternative path of civilizational development" for Russia and criticized the "sins" of the West. He also met with Putin during the service.
A video from the Ukrainian side shows the Russian city of Sudzha being targeted with bombs and missiles. The narrator claims that the city is being destroyed systematically, without regard for the civilian population.
A calendar featuring the "Archangel of Special Forces" is being distributed among Russian soldiers and their supporters. The calendar includes religious imagery and aims to boost morale.
The Financial Times reports that the EU is facing a security crisis due to Russia and Trump's "indifference" to Europe. The article suggests that European countries need to increase their defense spending significantly.
A video shows a Ukrainian tank firing its main gun in a snowy field. The footage is likely from Ukrainian airborne assault troops.
Another video shows a Ukrainian strike on a Russian armored vehicle column using artillery and a kamikaze drone. The drone operator is heard coordinating the attack in real-time.
Scammers are using deepfake technology to impersonate relatives, superiors, and even officials like Mayor Sobyanin to defraud Russians.
A video shows a video conference call with a Russian flag in the background, suggesting high-level discussions related to Russia's military operations.
The Ukrainian Air Force reported increased activity of Russian tactical aviation on the south-eastern and north-eastern directions, with a threat of the use of guided aerial bombs.
Ukrainian special forces reportedly killed 13 North Korean soldiers in the Kursk region. They found weapons, a radio, and documents on one of the deceased, suggesting he may have been an officer.
North Korea claims to have successfully launched a new hypersonic missile that reached 12 times the speed of sound and a maximum altitude of 99.8 kilometers, allegedly hitting a target 1,500 km away from the launch site.
Kim Jong-un asserts that the new missile can overcome Western air defense systems.
Western countries are criticized for not preventing their microelectronics components from reaching North Korea and Russia.

Overall, the situation remains fluid and highly volatile, with Russian forces maintaining offensive momentum and Ukrainian forces facing mounting challenges. The increasing use of drones, the geographical expansion of the conflict, and the evolving geopolitical landscape contribute to the complexity of the situation. The coming days will be crucial in determining the trajectory of the conflict and the potential for further escalation.

Recommendations

Urgently reinforce Toretsk and Pokrovsk: The situation in Toretsk is critical, and immediate action is needed to prevent its complete capture by Russian forces. Deploy additional troops, anti-tank weapons, and air defense systems to Toretsk and Pokrovsk to counter the Russian advance. Reinforce defensive positions in Kurakhove to maintain control of the remaining territory and prevent further Russian advances.
Address the information leak: Investigate the alleged leak of information about the Kursk counteroffensive and take appropriate measures to prevent future breaches of operational security.
Enhance counter-drone capabilities: Given the increasing use of FPV drones by Russian forces, prioritize the deployment of advanced counter-drone systems and develop tactics to mitigate their effectiveness.
Secure critical infrastructure: Enhance the protection of critical infrastructure, particularly nuclear power plants, to prevent potential catastrophic incidents. Deploy additional air defense systems and security personnel to these facilities.
Maintain offensive pressure in Kursk: Continue to exert offensive pressure on Russian forces in the Kursk region to disrupt their operations and prevent them from concentrating their forces in the Donetsk region. Exploit any successes achieved in the offensive.
Address troop mobilization challenges: Take steps to address any shortcomings in troop mobilization efforts to ensure sufficient manpower for sustained operations.
Strengthen international support: Seek further military and financial assistance from international partners to sustain the war effort. Emphasize the need for advanced weapons systems, including long-range missiles, air defense systems, and counter-drone technology.
Counter Russian information operations: Counter Russian disinformation and propaganda efforts by providing accurate and timely information to the public. Highlight Ukrainian successes and Russian losses to maintain morale and international support. Exploit any internal disagreements or conflicting narratives within Russian media to sow confusion and undermine morale among Russian forces and the public.
Logistical Preparedness: Ensure the availability of sufficient supplies, ammunition, and equipment to sustain operations. Anticipate and mitigate potential logistical challenges, particularly in the face of increased drone attacks and potential disruptions to supply lines.
Intelligence Gathering: Enhance intelligence-gathering capabilities to monitor Russian troop movements, identify potential threats, and anticipate future actions. Utilize all available sources, including satellite imagery, signals intelligence, and human intelligence. Pay particular attention to the situation in Sumy Oblast and any signs of further escalation or Russian incursions.
Training and Adaptation: Continuously train troops on the latest tactics and technologies, with a particular focus on drone warfare and counter-drone measures. Adapt strategies and tactics based on the evolving nature of the conflict and lessons learned from operational outcomes.
Mitigate Environmental Damage: Take steps to address the environmental damage caused by the oil spills in the Black Sea. Seek international assistance in cleanup efforts and highlight the ecological consequences of the conflict.
Exploit Russian Weaknesses: Capitalize on any internal disagreements or conflicting narratives within Russian media to sow confusion and undermine morale among Russian forces and the public.
Enhance Counter-Tank Capabilities: Deploy additional anti-tank weapons and units to areas where armored engagements are likely, such as Yelyzavetivka and other points along the front lines.
Monitor and Respond to Developments: Closely monitor the situation in all regions, particularly in areas where Russian forces are making advances or where Ukrainian forces are conducting offensive operations. Be prepared to adjust strategies and redeploy forces as needed to respond to emerging threats and opportunities.
Prepare for Potential Escalation: Given the increased drone activity in Sumy Oblast and the ongoing fighting in the Kursk region, be prepared for the possibility of the conflict widening along the border. Develop contingency plans for responding to potential Russian incursions or escalations in these areas.
Maintain Operational Security: Emphasize the importance of operational security to prevent Russian forces from gaining intelligence on Ukrainian troop movements, deployments, and intentions.
Prioritize Troop Welfare: Ensure that troops are adequately equipped, supplied, and supported to maintain morale and combat effectiveness. Address any issues related to troop welfare, including medical care, rest, and rotation.
Develop a Clear Strategic Vision: Ensure that all military operations are aligned with a clear strategic vision and long-term objectives. Regularly assess the effectiveness of current strategies and make adjustments as needed to achieve desired outcomes.
Foster Innovation: Encourage innovation and the development of new technologies and tactics to counter emerging threats and maintain a competitive advantage. Invest in research and development, particularly in areas such as drone warfare, counter-drone measures, and electronic warfare.
Prepare for a major Ukrainian offensive in Kursk Oblast: Given the significant concentration of Ukrainian forces in the area and the ongoing fighting, prepare for a potentially large-scale Ukrainian offensive aimed at achieving significant territorial gains or strategic objectives.
Enhance defenses in Sumy Oblast: Due to the reports of Russian troop movements and drone activity in Sumy Oblast, reinforce defenses and prepare for potential incursions or escalations in this region. Deploy additional troops, anti-tank weapons, and air defense systems as needed.
Counter Russian advances in Donetsk region: Given the significant Russian advances around Kurakhove, Pokrovsk, and Toretsk, prioritize efforts to halt their progress and stabilize the front lines. Deploy reinforcements, enhance defensive positions, and conduct counterattacks where feasible.
Exploit Russian vulnerabilities in Vremivka direction: With Russian forces capturing Storozheve and forming a new "pocket" near Velyka Novosilka, explore opportunities to exploit any vulnerabilities in their positions and conduct counteroffensives to regain lost territory.
Address potential widening of conflict along the border: Given the increased drone activity in Sumy Oblast and the ongoing fighting in the Kursk region, prepare for the possibility of the conflict widening along the border. Develop contingency plans for responding to potential Russian incursions or escalations in these areas.
Enhance cooperation with international partners: Given the reported meeting between Scholz and Putin, and the potential donation from Tim Cook to Trump's inauguration, strengthen diplomatic efforts with international partners to ensure continued support for Ukraine and address any potential shifts in policy or allegiances.
Monitor and respond to developments in other regions: While the focus is on the current hot spots, continue to monitor the situation in other regions, such as Zaporizhzhia, where Ukrainian forces are reportedly amassing reserves for an offensive. Be prepared to adjust strategies and redeploy forces as needed to respond to emerging threats and opportunities.
Address environmental concerns: Given the reported oil spills in the Black Sea and the deaths of dolphins, take steps to address the environmental damage and seek international assistance in cleanup efforts. Highlight the ecological consequences of the conflict to garner international support and pressure on Russia.
Prepare for potential shifts in the geopolitical landscape: With the reported meeting between Scholz and Putin, and the potential donation from Tim Cook to Trump's inauguration, anticipate any potential shifts in the geopolitical landscape that could impact the conflict. Develop contingency plans for various scenarios and strengthen diplomatic efforts to maintain international support for Ukraine.
Counter Russian information operations: Given the conflicting reports and internal disagreements within Russian media, counter Russian information operations by providing accurate and timely information to the public. Highlight Ukrainian successes and Russian losses to maintain morale and international support.
Address potential impact of Turkish naval developments: With Turkey's construction of an aircraft carrier, air defense destroyer, and submarine, assess the potential impact on the regional balance of power, particularly in the Black Sea. Develop strategies to counter any potential threats and strengthen cooperation with other regional partners.
Prepare for potential escalation in drone warfare: Given the increasing use of drones by both sides, anticipate further escalation in drone warfare. Invest in counter-drone technologies and develop tactics to counter the threat posed by enemy drones.
Address potential humanitarian crisis: With the ongoing fighting and displacement of civilians, prepare for a potential humanitarian crisis. Coordinate with international organizations and NGOs to provide assistance to affected populations and address any potential refugee flows.
Monitor and respond to developments in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict: Given the ongoing escalation in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, monitor any potential spillover effects or implications for the situation in Ukraine. Be prepared to adjust strategies and diplomatic efforts as needed to address any potential regional instability.
Enhance cybersecurity measures: With the increasing use of technology in warfare, enhance cybersecurity measures to protect critical infrastructure, communication networks, and sensitive data from cyber attacks and espionage.
Address potential economic consequences: Given the impact of the conflict on the global economy, particularly in areas such as energy and food security, develop strategies to mitigate any potential economic consequences for Ukraine. Seek international support to address any potential economic challenges.
Prepare for potential shifts in Russian strategy: With the reported losses of North Korean soldiers in the Russian army and their replacement with Russian soldiers, anticipate any potential shifts in Russian strategy or tactics. Monitor troop movements and deployments to identify any changes in their approach to the conflict.
Address potential impact of new technologies: With the reported development of a military ID within the "Army+" app by the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense, assess the potential impact of this technology on military operations and logistics.
Counter the narrative of a "bad" peace deal: Given the concerns raised by the Financial Times article, develop a communication strategy to counter the narrative of a "bad" peace deal that could weaken Ukraine and embolden Russia. Emphasize the importance of a strong and just peace that ensures Ukraine's security and territorial integrity.
Prepare for potential negotiations: While the current focus is on military operations, prepare for potential negotiations with Russia. Develop a clear set of objectives and principles for any peace talks, and coordinate with international partners to ensure a united front.
Address the reported destruction in Toretsk: Given the extensive damage reported in Toretsk, assess the humanitarian needs of the civilian population and provide assistance where possible. Plan for the eventual reconstruction and rehabilitation of the city.
Monitor the situation in Sumy Oblast: Given the reported absence of Russian troop crossings but the presence of sabotage groups, enhance surveillance and reconnaissance efforts in the Sumy region to detect and counter any potential incursions.
Respond to the reported drone attack in Kharkiv Oblast: With six people, including four children, reportedly injured in a drone attack in Kharkiv Oblast, provide medical assistance to the victims and investigate the incident. Enhance air defense measures in the region to prevent future attacks.
Address the reported infrastructure failures in Russia: While not directly related to the military situation in Ukraine, the reported infrastructure failures in various Russian cities could have implications for Russia's ability to sustain the war effort. Monitor the situation and assess any potential impact on Russia's logistical and economic capabilities.
Prepare for potential escalation in the use of guided bombs: With reports of increased use of guided bombs by Russian forces, develop and deploy countermeasures to protect Ukrainian troops and infrastructure. This may include enhancing air defense systems, improving camouflage and concealment techniques, and developing tactics to counter the threat.
Address the reported information leak regarding the Kursk offensive: Conduct a thorough investigation into the alleged leak of information about the Ukrainian offensive in the Kursk region. Identify the source of the leak and take appropriate measures to prevent future breaches of operational security. Implement stricter protocols for handling sensitive information and reinforce the importance of information security among all personnel.
Monitor and counter Russian information operations: Given the conflicting reports and narratives emerging from both sides, closely monitor Russian information operations and develop strategies to counter their influence. Provide accurate and timely information to the public, highlighting Ukrainian successes and Russian losses. Emphasize the importance of relying on trusted sources and avoiding the spread of misinformation.
Prepare for potential shifts in international support: With reports of a potential meeting between German Chancellor Scholz and Russian President Putin, as well as Tim Cook's planned donation to Trump's inauguration, anticipate any

Situation Report