Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine - January 6, 2025, 09:03 UTC

Strategic Overview

The military situation in Ukraine remains extremely precarious for Ukrainian forces. Russian troops are making significant advances in the Donetsk region, particularly in Toretsk and towards Pokrovsk. The capture of Kurakhove and Ivanivka has been confirmed, solidifying Russian control in the Donetsk and Luhansk regions. The Russian Ministry of Defense has officially declared the liberation of Kurakhove, highlighting the severity of the situation for Ukrainian forces. Ukrainian defenses in Kurakhove were substantial, involving 26 battalions totaling over 15,000 troops, including elite units. The losses suffered by Ukrainian forces during the battle for Kurakhove were significant, with an estimated 80% of personnel (over 12,000 troops) and around 3,000 pieces of military equipment, including 40 tanks, lost. The capture of Kurakhove has disrupted Ukrainian logistics and allowed Russian forces to advance towards operational objectives, potentially leading to further territorial gains in the Donetsk People's Republic. The new messages confirm that Russian forces have advanced in the northern part of Dzerzhinsk (Toretsk), expanding their control zone. Ukrainian sources also confirm the critical situation in Toretsk, with reports indicating that 85% of the city is under Russian control. The battle for Toretsk is described as crucial for the fate of nearby cities, including Chasiv Yar, Konstantinovka, Kramatorsk, and Sloviansk.

The Ukrainian counteroffensive in the Kursk region appears to have failed, resulting in heavy losses. Russian forces have reportedly repelled over 30 Ukrainian attempts to infiltrate the Luhansk People's Republic in the past week, as well as 47 assaults in the Kursk region. The US has acknowledged the strategic importance of the Kursk operation for future negotiations. The reported destruction of a Ukrainian column near Berdin and the liberation of Leonidovo by Russian forces further highlight the setbacks faced by Ukrainian troops in the Kursk region. Despite heavy losses, Ukrainian forces are reportedly bringing in new reserves, indicating a continued effort to contest the area.

Drone warfare continues to be a central element of the conflict. Both sides are employing drones extensively for reconnaissance, targeting, and attacks. Ukrainian air defenses are actively engaging drones over several regions, including Sumy, Lebedyn, Kharkiv, Poltava, Cherkasy, Kyiv, Mykolaiv, Zhytomyr, and Kirovohrad. The new messages report continued drone attacks on Russian territory, including the Belgorod, Bryansk, Kursk, Tula, and Astrakhan regions, demonstrating the ongoing threat posed by Ukrainian drones to Russian infrastructure and military assets.

The reported activity of enemy tactical aviation in the north-eastern direction suggests a potential intensification of attacks in frontline regions. The Ukrainian Air Force has reported increased activity of Russian tactical aviation in the north-eastern direction, posing a potential threat of air and missile strikes.

The Ukrainian Navy's report of a "Kalibr" missile carrier in the Black Sea, while not reporting any missile firings, is a reminder of the continued threat posed by Russian naval forces.

The reported resignation of Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, if confirmed, could potentially impact international support for Ukraine.

The multiple reports of drone attacks and aerial engagements across various regions of Ukraine highlight the widespread nature of the aerial threat and the constant pressure on Ukrainian air defenses.

The continued fighting in the Kursk region, with reports of Ukrainian advances and the use of drones by both sides, indicates that this area remains a key focal point of the conflict.

Key Developments

Intensified Ground Operations and Russian Advances

• Donetsk Region:
  • Critical Situation in Toretsk: The situation in Toretsk has significantly deteriorated, with reports indicating that less than 15% of the city remains under Ukrainian control. Russian forces control the entire southern part of the city and have advanced further into the city, including the northern part.
  • Russian Advances: Russian forces have captured Kurakhove and are advancing towards Pokrovsk, posing a direct threat to the strategic Pokrovsk-Konstantinovka highway. They report advances near Chasiv Yar, Belogorovka, Ukrainka, Novyi Trud, Ivan-Daryevka, Slavyanka, Petropavlovka, Myrolyubivka, Vodyane Druhe, Baranivka, Zelene Pole, and Tymofiivka. Russian forces are intensifying attacks on the Pokrovsk-Konstantinovka highway and making progress in Novovasylivka, southwest of Pokrovsk. Positional fighting continues in the Krasnoarmiisk-Novoaleksandrivka direction. Russian forces are consolidating their positions near Berdin. At the Toretsk axis, clashes were reported near Toretsk, Scherbynivka and Krymske. At the Pokrovsk axis, clashes were reported near Yelyzavetivka, Vozdvyzhenka, Myrolubivka, Promin, Lysivka, Novyy Trud, Pischane, Solone, Novovasylivka, Novoyelyzavetivka and Yasenove. At the Kurakhivka axis, clashes were reported near Slovyanka, Petropavlivka, Kurakhove and Dachne.
  • Heroic Battle near Pokrovsk: A Russian tank, accompanied by two BMPs, engaged two Ukrainian tanks at a close range near Yelyzavetivka, east of Pokrovsk. The Russian tank successfully destroyed one Ukrainian tank. The second Ukrainian tank retreated. Following this engagement, Russian infantry secured positions in Yelyzavetivka.
  • Ukrainian Resistance: Ukrainian forces are attempting to repel the Russian advance, reporting that they repelled a Russian assault near Velyka Novosilka and pushed Russian forces out of the southern part of Novoielizavetivka. Street fighting continues in Toretsk.
  • Casualties: Ukrainian forces report repelling 30 Russian attacks in the Pokrovsk direction and claim to have neutralized 304 Russian troops, with 130 killed. They also report destroying one tank, four BMPs, six vehicles, one artillery system, and ten UAVs. Two artillery systems, one vehicle, and one tank were damaged.
  • Chasiv Yar: Fighting is reported at the "Chasiv Yar Refractory Plant," with Russian forces claiming new positions in the northern part of Chasiv Yar and an advance of up to 1.5 km. At the Kramatorsk axis, clashes were reported near Chasiv Yar, Stupochky and Predtechyne.
• Kursk Region:
  • Major Ukrainian Offensive: A major Ukrainian offensive is underway, with intense fighting reported near Leonidovo, Berdin, Bolshoe Soldatskoe, Martynovka, and Pushkarnoe. The Ukrainian General Staff reports over 40 battles in the Kursk region. The US has confirmed the political significance of the Kursk operation, with Secretary of State Blinken stating that the position in Kursk is important for future negotiations.
  • Russian Counterattack: Russian forces report repelling a Ukrainian counterattack near Berdin and claim to have destroyed multiple Ukrainian vehicles, including a British Challenger tank. They are engaged in battles near Leonidovo, Alexandria, and Kruglenkoye, with ongoing assaults towards Viktorovka. The 106th Airborne Division is conducting active assault operations in the forests near Sverdlikovo and Lebedevka. Russian paratroopers are reportedly pushing Ukrainian forces out of Makhnovka and Dmitryukov in the Kursk region. They also destroyed Ukrainian firing points with a 2S9 Nona-S self-propelled mortar.
  • Situation near Berdin: Russian forces are reportedly eliminating remaining Ukrainian troops near Berdin without significant resistance. Expected Ukrainian reserves have not arrived, suggesting a potential failure in the Ukrainian offensive plan.
  • Casualties: Russian sources claim the Ukrainian military has lost over 540 troops, with new reports indicating even heavier losses, reaching 48,000 casualties.
  • Continued Fighting: Fighting continues near Berdin and Malaya Loknya, with Russian forces making advances in the Sudzha area, particularly near Makhnovka.
  • Ukrainian Units Identified: The Ukrainian units involved in the offensive are identified as the 95th, 92nd, 22nd, 82nd, and 225th Brigades, although it is clarified that only parts of these brigades are involved.
  • Drone Attack on Kursk: Reports indicate a drone attack on Kursk, with claims of a "massive raid from several sides at once." Air defense systems were reportedly active.
  • New Update: The situation on the front in the Sverdlikovo and Lebedevka area remains tense, with active assault operations taking place in the forests. Despite heavy losses, the Ukrainian forces are reportedly not retreating and are bringing in new reserves. Russian forces are using aviation, artillery, and drones. Drones such as the Mavic and FPV, as well as remote mining, are being used.
• Luhansk Region:
  • Russian Advances: The Russian Ministry of Defense reports that Russian forces have liberated Nadia.
  • New Update: Russian forces have captured Ivanivka near Terny, according to both Russian and Ukrainian sources. This marks a significant Russian advance in the Luhansk region. Russian forces are also attempting to capture heights beyond Ivanovka near Terny and are storming Zahryzove. At the Lyman axis, clashes were reported near Nadiya, Tverdokhlibove, Zarichne, Novoserhiyivka and Pershotravneve.
  • Repelled Infiltrations: Russian forces have successfully repelled over 30 attempts by Ukrainian forces and foreign mercenaries to penetrate the territory of the Luhansk People's Republic in the past week. Ukrainian losses are reported to be over 8,000 soldiers and mercenaries.

Drone Warfare and Aerial Attacks

• Extensive Drone Activity: Drone warfare continues to be a dominant feature of the conflict, with both sides utilizing drones extensively.
  • Ukrainian forces report successful drone strikes on Russian targets, including a command post near the Toretsk mine. FPV drones are being used extensively, particularly by Russian forces, causing significant damage to Ukrainian equipment and personnel.
  • New Drone Targets: Russian drones are targeting Chernihiv and Nizhyn.
  • Drone Movements: Reports indicate drone movements in Chernihiv, Poltava, Cherkasy, Kyiv, Mykolaiv, Zhytomyr, and Kirovohrad. Ukrainian air defenses reportedly shot down 7 drones over Dnipropetrovsk Oblast.
  • New Update: 340 additional drones have been procured by Ukrainian forces thanks to donations, bringing the total to 134,114 FPV drones. Overnight, Ukrainian air defense forces shot down 10 Russian drones over Cherkasy Oblast.
• Air Defense Engagements:
  • Ukrainian air defense forces are actively engaging hostile drones. Reports indicate drone activity near Kyiv. The threat of attack drones has been lifted across all regions, according to the Ukrainian Air Force.
  • A Ukrainian drone was shot down over the Bryansk region of Russia. No casualties or damage were reported.
  • Explosions were reported in Cherkasy and its outskirts.
  • A Ukrainian missile was shot down over the territory of the Kursk region.
• Air Raid Alerts: Air raid alerts are active in Kyiv and several other regions. Air raid alerts have been lifted in Zaporizhzhia oblast.
• New Drone Activity:
  • Zhytomyr Oblast: Drones are reported in the northern part, moving west. One drone was reported east of Zviahel, moving southwest.
  • Kyiv Oblast: Drones are present in the northern part, moving west. Three drones are reported to be circling in the north, with one approaching Boryspil and one having flown past Obukhiv towards Kyiv.
  • Chernihiv Oblast: Drones are observed in the northern and southern parts, moving west. Two drones are reported to be circling north of Chernihiv, and one is reported to be southwest of Chernihiv with a southeast trajectory. One drone is also reported to be circling near Pryluky.
  • Kirovohrad Oblast: Drones are present in the eastern part, moving southwest.
  • Kharkiv Oblast: Drones are reported to be moving from Kharkiv Oblast towards Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. Three drones are also reported to be near Lozova. The Ukrainian Air Force has reported increased activity of Russian tactical aviation in the north-eastern direction, posing a potential threat of air and missile strikes. Additionally, there is a reported threat of Shahed drones in Kharkiv and Sumy Oblasts, with drones observed on the border of Kharkiv and Sumy Oblasts, moving towards Poltava Oblast.
  • Dnipropetrovsk Oblast: One drone is reported to be in the Kryvyi Rih district with a trajectory towards the Kherson region, and another is flying over Dolynska in a southerly direction. One drone is also reported to be circling over Samara.
  • Poltava Oblast: One drone is reported to be circling south of Poltava. One drone was reported west of Kremenchuk, constantly changing course.
  • Cherkasy Oblast: One drone was reported in the eastern part, constantly changing course. One drone is reported to be in the western part, moving south.

Geopolitical Developments

• Zelensky's Statements: Zelensky has indicated a willingness to limit the scope of potential NATO membership to Ukrainian-controlled territory and expressed openness to attending Trump's inauguration if invited. He also hopes that Trump can end the war and provide strong security guarantees to Ukraine. Zelensky stated that elections in Ukraine could be held 90 days after the war's end. He also expressed a desire for Elon Musk to be maximally on Ukraine's side, acknowledging his gratitude for "Starlinks." In an interview, Zelensky stated that Ukraine would be open to a ceasefire if partners provided weapons to repel future Russian attacks.
• Potential Meeting Between Scholz and Putin: Reports suggest that German Chancellor Scholz may meet with Russian President Putin before February 23.
• Apple CEO's Potential Donation to Trump's Inauguration: Tim Cook, CEO of Apple, is reportedly planning to donate $1 million to Donald Trump's inauguration.
• Legal Action Against Von Der Leyen: A Belgian court will consider whether European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has legal immunity against corruption allegations related to the purchase of COVID-19 vaccines.
• German Foreign Minister on Aid to Syria: German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock has made the provision of aid to Syria under new authorities dependent on respect for women's rights, stating that the EU will not send money "to Islamist structures."
• North Korean Missile Launch: North Korea has reportedly launched a suspected ballistic missile, according to the Japanese coast guard. The missile fell outside of Japan's exclusive economic zone in the Sea of Japan.

Other Significant Developments

• Casualty Reports: Ukrainian forces report significant Russian casualties. Russian sources claim even heavier Ukrainian losses in the Kursk region, reaching 48,000 casualties.
• Troop Mobilization: Ukraine has reportedly mobilized 200,000 troops in 2024, falling short of the 500,000 called for by former Commander-in-Chief Zaluzhny.
• Environmental Concerns: Oil spills from sunken tankers in the Black Sea have reached the coasts of Crimea, causing the deaths of dolphins.
• US Aid: A new US military aid package for Ukraine is expected to be announced soon, but the US has indicated that they will not be able to provide all military aid to Ukraine before January 20th.
• Serbia's Energy Supply: Serbia is seeking new oil and gas supply routes due to the threat of US sanctions.
• Information Operations: Russian media is accused of building a narrative of victory and exaggerating its achievements. Ukrainian officials are criticized for their response to the situation in the Kursk region. Reports of a drone attack on Kursk highlight the ongoing information war. Russian media outlet Colonelcassad has been posting images and videos aimed at boosting morale and spreading propaganda. They have also been encouraging Ukrainians to join the "people's resistance" to "help Russia."
• Czech Republic Military Aid: The Czech Republic issued 40 permits for Czech citizens to fight for Ukraine in the past year but rejected nearly twice as many applications.
• Russian Military Claims: The Russian Ministry of Defense claims to have repelled a Ukrainian attack in the Kursk region, destroying 11 Ukrainian drones. Video evidence also shows the destruction of another Ukrainian tank in the Kursk region. A Russian Su-34 also struck Ukrainian infantry and equipment at a stronghold in the Kursk region.
• Ukrainian Military App: The Ukrainian Ministry of Defense is developing a military ID within the "Army+" app.
• Fire in Kirov Oblast: A criminal case has been opened following a fire in Kirov Oblast that resulted in multiple fatalities.
• Internal Russian Political Developments: A scandal has emerged involving Russian deputies Fedorov and Matveychev, who reportedly criticized those fighting against illegal migration, labeling them as agents of British intelligence. This has sparked controversy and condemnation from various figures, including political analyst Sergei Markov. The situation has led to internal political tensions within Russia, with expectations of a response from the leadership of the State Duma.
• Confiscation of Assets: Russian authorities have begun the confiscation of assets belonging to former minister Abyzov, amounting to nearly 24 billion rubles, as indicated by court documents.
• Two people were injured: Two people were injured after a drone attack on the village of Rzhevka in the Belgorod region. One man suffered shrapnel wounds to the face, chest and arm, and the second suffered a shrapnel wound to the head, barotrauma and contusion.
• Poet and songwriter killed: Russian poet and songwriter Oleg Gegelsky was killed in the special operation zone at the age of 60. He was reportedly on a mission, traveling in a car through a "gray zone," when he came under artillery fire.
• South Korean President's Arrest Warrant: The Anti-Corruption Investigation Department for Senior Officials is reportedly transferring an arrest warrant application for South Korean President Yoon Seok-yeol to the police in connection with a mutiny case.
• Former Deputy Head of Kuban Emergency Situations Ministry Cooperates with Investigation: Former Deputy Head of the Kuban Main Directorate of the Ministry of Emergency Situations, Simonenko, is reportedly cooperating with the investigation and providing detailed testimony.
• Increased Air Ticket Purchases: Russians have been increasingly purchasing air tickets to Japan, China, Vietnam, and South Korea in 2024.
• Ukrainian Soldiers Trained in Britain: A group of Ukrainian soldiers from the 117th Brigade, trained in Britain under a program approved by Boris Johnson, are reportedly preparing to enter the battle on the Pokrovsk direction.
• Russian Drone Operators Strike Ukrainian Vehicles: Russian FPV drone operators from the "Aida" group reportedly hit two Ukrainian armored fighting vehicles.
• China's Satellite Technology: China claims a major breakthrough in laser communication "satellite-to-ground," potentially surpassing Elon Musk's Starlink. This achievement could serve as the foundation for future technologies like 6G, next-generation satellite positioning systems, and ultra-high-resolution remote sensing.
• Satellite Image Analysis: The satellite image reveals a high-value area with a strategically important palace/complex, potential avenues of approach via roads, a key naval access point with the marina, and possible landing zones on the beaches and open field. The location seems to be of civilian nature, but with enough structure and accessibility to become a prime point for military operations. Military planners would focus on the palace as a high-value target, while the marina and nearby areas could be considered as potential supply routes and staging areas.
• Ukrainian Naval Update: The Ukrainian Navy reports that one enemy warship, a "Kalibr" missile carrier, is present in the Black Sea, but no missile firings are reported. In the Sea of Azov, no enemy warships or missile carriers are present. In the Mediterranean Sea, seven enemy warships, including two "Kalibr" missile carriers, are present, with 22 missile firings reported. The Kerch Strait transit data highlights its importance for Russian naval logistics and movements.
• Russian Military Operations in Kursk Region: Russian paratroopers are reportedly pushing Ukrainian forces out of Makhnovka and Dmitryukov in the Kursk region. They also destroyed Ukrainian firing points with a 2S9 Nona-S self-propelled mortar. In Chasiv Yar, Ivanovo paratroopers repelled a Ukrainian drone attack, suppressing four Baba Yaga drones with small arms fire. In the Kursk region, Primorsky paratroopers destroyed a Ukrainian pickup truck with a drone.
• Zelensky's Interview: A video of Zelensky's interview has been released, where he criticizes the imposition of sanctions against Russia after the start of the special military operation, stating that "it's bullshit." He also claims that everyone didn't care about Ukraine and the security guarantors of the Budapest Memorandum. He further states that he told Trump to give Ukraine $300 billion from Russian assets to buy weapons and invest in the US industry. Lastly, he expresses his lack of respect for the current Russian leadership and its people.
• Historical Commemoration: January 6, 1813, marked the end of the Patriotic War, with Emperor Alexander I issuing a manifesto and ordering the construction of the Cathedral of Christ the Savior in Moscow. The event was celebrated annually on Christmas Day until the October Revolution. The "Great Army" of Napoleon suffered significant losses, with over 550,000 killed, wounded, or captured. The Patriotic War of 1812 had a profound impact on Russia's internal development and demonstrated the heroism and patriotism of the Russian people.
• Video Analysis of Russian Tank Operations: The video shows a Russian T-80 tank crew preparing for an offensive operation in a snowy, wooded environment. The emphasis on camouflage and the tank's movement through challenging terrain suggest a strategy of concealment and surprise. The loading of ammunition and the firing of the tank's weapon indicate its role as a key asset in close-range or ambush combat situations.
• Canadian Prime Minister's Potential Resignation: Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau may announce his resignation as leader of the Liberal Party due to internal party pressure and low public support. The announcement is expected before a key national meeting on January 8. It is unclear whether he will resign immediately or remain as Prime Minister until a new leader is chosen.
• North Korean Missile Test: North Korea launched a ballistic missile that flew about 1,100 km and fell into the Sea of Japan, according to the Yonhap news agency.
• Russian strikes in the Dnipropetrovsk Oblast: During the night, Russian forces attacked the Nikopol region five times using artillery and a kamikaze drone. The attacks targeted Nikopol, Pokrovsk, and Marhanets communities. There were no reported casualties. Ukrainian air defense forces shot down five drones during the evening and night.
• Propaganda: Zelensky's interview continues to be a topic of discussion, with Russian media criticizing his language and behavior.
• Drone Warfare: A video shows the elimination of a group of Russian soldiers using FPV drones by the 110th Mechanized Brigade.
• Kursk Region Fighting: Geolocation of battles in the Kursk region has been established, indicating the areas where Ukrainian forces attacked.
• Drone Activity in Sumy Oblast: Ukrainian air defense forces reportedly shot down 12 Shahed drones over Sumy Oblast during the night.
• Russian Advances: According to DeepState, Russian forces have made advances in Toretsk, Zelene, Petropavlivka, near Vozdvyzhenka, Baranivka, and Pishchane.
• Strategic Importance of Pokrovsk: The ISW considers the encirclement of Pokrovsk as one of Russia's key operational goals. Russian troops have been active east of Pokrovsk, potentially aiming to advance through fields and small settlements.
• Air Strikes: The 11th Guards Air Assault Army carried out air strikes on Ukrainian positions near Konstantinopol. Russian aviation also conducted airstrikes at Velykyy Prykil, Odradne, Kupyansk-Vuzlovyy, Hlushkivka, Kivsharivka, Rayhorodka, Kopanka, Zarichne, Predtechyne, Kostyantynivka, Dachne, Sukha Balka, Andriyivka, Ulakly, Velyka Novosilka, Temyrivka and Novopavlivka. At the Kharkiv axis, clashes took place near Vovchansk. At the Kupyansk axis, clashes took place near Zahryzove.
• Zaporizhzhia Oblast Attacks: Russian forces carried out 542 strikes on 12 settlements in the Zaporizhzhia Oblast, using aviation, drones, MLRS, and artillery.
• Artillery and Drone Attacks in Kharkiv Oblast: Russian forces continued their attacks on Kharkiv Oblast, using both artillery and drones. Several locations were targeted, including Kharkiv, Zolochiv,

Changes Brought by the New Messages:

• Russian Advances in Kursk Region: Russian forces have liberated the village of Leonidovo in the Kursk region, further pushing back Ukrainian forces. This marks another setback for the Ukrainian counteroffensive in the area.
• US Support for Ukrainian Offensive in Kursk Region: US Secretary of State Antony Blinken has officially supported the Ukrainian offensive in the Kursk region, stating that it is an important operation to strengthen Kyiv's position before future negotiations with Moscow.
• Air Strikes: Russian aviation conducted airstrikes in multiple locations, indicating continued air superiority and pressure on Ukrainian forces.
• Clashes: Clashes were reported along multiple axes, indicating ongoing fighting across a broad front. At the Kherson axis, Ukrainian forces have repelled 1 Russian army assault. In the Kursk region, Ukrainian forces have repelled 47 Russian army assaults.
• Trump's Potential Pardon: Former US President Donald Trump has reportedly promised to pardon around 1,000 people involved in the January 6, 2021, Capitol riot. This could potentially impact the US political landscape and influence future support for Ukraine.
• Medvedev's Statement on Zelensky: Dmitry Medvedev, a prominent Russian figure, has intensified his rhetoric against Zelensky, stating that the Russian people's disdain for him should not end with his removal from office. This further highlights the personal animosity and deep-seated tensions between the two sides.
• North Korean Missile Test: North Korea's test of a ballistic missile during Blinken's visit to Seoul underscores the continued tensions in the region and the potential for further escalation. The test highlights the importance of cooperation between the US, South Korea, and Japan in addressing North Korean threats.

Updated Situation:

The military situation in Ukraine remains extremely precarious for Ukrainian forces. The capture of Kurakhove and Ivanivka by Russian forces, along with their advances towards Pokrovsk and Toretsk, are significant developments, solidifying their control in the Donetsk and Luhansk regions and potentially opening up new avenues of advance. The official confirmation of Kurakhove's capture by the Russian Ministry of Defense, along with the detailed account of the Ukrainian defenses and losses, underscores the strategic importance of this victory for Russian forces. The new report that Russian forces have advanced in the northern part of Dzerzhinsk (Toretsk) and the acknowledgment by Ukrainian sources that 85% of the city is under Russian control further confirm the deteriorating situation for Ukrainian forces. The battle for Toretsk is now seen as crucial for the fate of several nearby cities, highlighting the potential for a cascading effect on the wider Donetsk region.

The Ukrainian counteroffensive in the Kursk region appears to have failed, with heavy losses and limited gains. The liberation of Leonidovo by Russian forces and the reported destruction of a Ukrainian column near Berdin demonstrate the challenges faced by Ukrainian troops in this area. Despite the setbacks, Ukrainian forces are reportedly bringing in new reserves, suggesting a continued effort to contest the region. However, the official US support for the Ukrainian offensive, as expressed by Secretary of State Blinken, adds a new dimension to the conflict and could potentially lead to further escalation.

Drone warfare continues to be a central element of the conflict, with both sides employing drones extensively for reconnaissance, targeting, and attacks. The continued drone activity across multiple regions of Ukraine, as indicated by the new messages, highlights the persistent threat and the widespread nature of aerial engagements. The new reports of drone movements across various regions and the engagement of air defense systems near Kyiv indicate a continued high level of aerial activity.

The reported activity of enemy tactical aviation in the north-eastern direction, along with the multiple reports of air strikes, suggests a potential intensification of attacks in frontline regions. The Ukrainian Air Force's report of increased Russian tactical aviation activity further confirms this threat.

Geopolitically, the situation remains complex. Zelensky's statements about potential negotiations with Trump and the possibility of limiting NATO's scope in Ukraine introduce new elements into the strategic calculus. The potential meeting between Scholz and Putin, as well as Tim Cook's planned donation to Trump's inauguration, add further complexity to the geopolitical landscape. The legal action against von der Leyen regarding vaccine procurement adds another layer of international political intrigue. The reported resignation of Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, if confirmed, could potentially impact international support for Ukraine.

The new messages also highlight several other significant developments, including the reported Russian advances in the Kursk region, the US support for the Ukrainian offensive in Kursk, the continued air strikes and clashes across multiple axes, and the potential impact of Trump's possible pardon on the US political landscape. The intensified rhetoric from Russian figures like Medvedev, along with North Korea's missile test, further underscore the volatility of the situation.

Overall, the situation remains fluid and highly volatile, with Russian forces maintaining offensive momentum and Ukrainian forces facing mounting challenges. The increasing use of drones, the geographical expansion of the conflict, and the evolving geopolitical landscape contribute to the complexity of the situation. The coming days will be crucial in determining the trajectory of the conflict and the potential for further escalation.

Recommendations

1. Urgently reinforce Toretsk and Pokrovsk: The situation in Toretsk is critical, and immediate action is needed to prevent its complete capture. Deploy additional troops, anti-tank weapons, and air defense systems to Toretsk and Pokrovsk to counter the Russian advance. Given the recent success of Russian armored units near Yelyzavetivka, prioritize the deployment of anti-tank weapons and units capable of countering armored thrusts.
2. Address the information leak: Investigate the alleged leak of information about the Kursk counteroffensive and take appropriate measures to prevent future breaches of operational security.
3. Enhance counter-drone capabilities: Prioritize the deployment of advanced counter-drone systems and develop tactics to mitigate the effectiveness of Russian FPV drones. Given the recent successful use of drones by Ukrainian forces to target individual soldiers, continue to invest in and develop drone technology for precision strikes.
4. Secure critical infrastructure: Enhance the protection of critical infrastructure, particularly nuclear power plants and energy facilities, to prevent potential catastrophic incidents. Deploy additional air defense systems and security personnel to these facilities.
5. Address troop mobilization challenges: Take steps to address any shortcomings in troop mobilization efforts to ensure sufficient manpower for sustained operations.
6. Strengthen international support: Seek further military and financial assistance from international partners to sustain the war effort. Emphasize the need for advanced weapons systems, including long-range missiles, air defense systems, and counter-drone technology.
7. Counter Russian information operations: Counter Russian disinformation and propaganda efforts by providing accurate and timely information to the public. Highlight Ukrainian successes and Russian losses to maintain morale and international support. Exploit any internal disagreements or conflicting narratives within Russian media to sow confusion and undermine morale among Russian forces and the public.
8. Logistical Preparedness: Ensure the availability of sufficient supplies, ammunition, and equipment to sustain operations. Anticipate and mitigate potential logistical challenges, particularly in the face of increased drone attacks and potential disruptions to supply lines.
9. Intelligence Gathering: Enhance intelligence-gathering capabilities to monitor Russian troop movements, identify potential threats, and anticipate future actions. Utilize all available sources, including satellite imagery, signals intelligence, and human intelligence. Pay particular attention to the situation in Sumy Oblast and any signs of further escalation or Russian incursions.
10. Training and Adaptation: Continuously train troops on the latest tactics and technologies, with a particular focus on drone warfare and counter-drone measures. Adapt strategies and tactics based on the evolving nature of the conflict and lessons learned from operational outcomes.
11. Exploit Russian Weaknesses: Capitalize on any internal disagreements or conflicting narratives within Russian media, such as the scandal involving Russian deputies Fedorov and Matveychev, to sow confusion and undermine morale among Russian forces and the public.
12. Enhance Counter-Tank Capabilities: Deploy additional anti-tank weapons and units to areas where armored engagements are likely, such as Yelyzavetivka and other points along the front lines.
13. Monitor and Respond to Developments: Closely monitor the situation in all regions, particularly in areas where Russian forces are making advances or where Ukrainian forces are conducting offensive operations. Be prepared to adjust strategies and redeploy forces as needed to respond to emerging threats and opportunities.
14. Prepare for Potential Escalation: Given the increased drone activity in Sumy Oblast and the ongoing fighting in the Kursk region, be prepared for the possibility of the conflict widening along the border. Develop contingency plans for responding to potential Russian incursions or escalations in these areas.
15. Maintain Operational Security: Emphasize the importance of operational security to prevent Russian forces from gaining intelligence on Ukrainian troop movements, deployments, and intentions.
16. Prioritize Troop Welfare: Ensure that troops are adequately equipped, supplied, and supported to maintain morale and combat effectiveness. Address any issues related to troop welfare, including medical care, rest, and rotation.
17. Develop a Clear Strategic Vision: Ensure that all military operations are aligned with a clear strategic vision and long-term objectives. Regularly assess the effectiveness of current strategies and make adjustments as needed to achieve desired outcomes.
18. Foster Innovation: Encourage innovation and the development of new technologies and tactics to counter emerging threats and maintain a competitive advantage. Invest in research and development, particularly in areas such as drone warfare, counter-drone measures, and electronic warfare.
19. Enhance defenses in Sumy Oblast: Due to the reports of Russian troop movements and drone activity in Sumy Oblast, reinforce defenses and prepare for potential incursions or escalations in this region. Deploy additional troops, anti-tank weapons, and air defense systems as needed.
20. Counter Russian advances in Donetsk region: Given the significant Russian advances around Kurakhove, Pokrovsk, and Toretsk, prioritize efforts to halt their progress and stabilize the front lines. Deploy reinforcements, enhance defensive positions, and conduct counterattacks where feasible.
21. Exploit Russian vulnerabilities in Vremivka direction: With Russian forces capturing Storozheve and forming a new "pocket" near Velyka Novosilka, explore opportunities to exploit any vulnerabilities in their positions and conduct counteroffensives to regain lost territory.
22. Address potential widening of conflict along the border: Given the increased drone activity in Sumy Oblast and the ongoing fighting in the Kursk region, prepare for the possibility of the conflict widening along the border. Develop contingency plans for responding to potential Russian incursions or escalations in these areas