Sitrep 2025-01-06 08:37:13

Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine - January 6, 2025, 08:33 UTC

Strategic Overview

The military situation in Ukraine remains extremely precarious for Ukrainian forces, with Russian troops making significant advances in the Donetsk region and consolidating their positions in the Kursk region. The capture of Kurakhove and Ivanivka, along with the advances towards Pokrovsk and Toretsk, are critical developments that could lead to further breakthroughs for Russian forces. The Russian Ministry of Defense has officially confirmed the liberation of Kurakhove. The Ukrainian counteroffensive in the Kursk region appears to have been unsuccessful, resulting in heavy losses and a potential setback for Ukrainian forces. The new messages confirm that Russian forces have successfully repelled over 30 Ukrainian attempts to infiltrate the Luhansk People's Republic in the past week, resulting in significant Ukrainian losses.

Drone warfare continues to be a central element of the conflict, with both sides employing drones extensively for reconnaissance, targeting, and attacks. The continued drone activity across multiple regions of Ukraine, as indicated by the new messages, highlights the persistent threat and the widespread nature of aerial engagements. The lifting of the air raid alert in Zaporizhzhia Oblast provides a temporary reprieve for the region, but the overall threat remains. New reports indicate drone threats in multiple Ukrainian oblasts, including Kharkiv, Poltava, Sumy, Cherkasy, Kyiv, Mykolaiv, Zhytomyr, and Kirovohrad. Ukrainian air defenses are actively engaging drones over Sumy and Lebedyn.

The reported activity of enemy tactical aviation in the north-eastern direction suggests a potential intensification of attacks in the frontline regions. This, combined with the ongoing drone movements, indicates that the aerial threat to Ukraine remains high.

The increased purchase of air tickets by Russians to several Asian countries does not directly impact the military situation in Ukraine but could potentially signal a shift in diplomatic or economic engagements.

Zelensky's recent statements regarding Elon Musk and "Starlinks" underscore the importance of international support, including from the private sector actors. The ongoing propaganda efforts by Russian media outlets, such as Colonelcassad's call for Ukrainians to join the "people's resistance," highlight the information warfare dimension of the conflict.

The reported training of Ukrainian soldiers in Britain and their impending deployment to the Pokrovsk direction, along with the reported destruction of Ukrainian armored vehicles by Russian drone operators, demonstrate the continued international involvement in the conflict and the effectiveness of drone warfare.

The new information regarding the lawsuit filed by the Degtyarev machine-gun plant against the Russian Ministry of Defense introduces a new element of internal tension within Russia. While it does not directly affect the current military situation.

The new report of a "big bada-boom" in Sudzha, Kursk region, caused by a FAB 3000 bomb, indicates a significant escalation in the use of force by Russian forces. This development suggests that the Kursk region is becoming an increasingly important area of operations for both sides. The use of such a powerful bomb highlights the intensity of the fighting and the potential for further escalation.

The Ukrainian Navy's report of a "Kalibr" missile carrier in the Black Sea, while not reporting any missile firings, is a reminder of the continued threat posed by Russian naval forces. The presence of enemy warships in the Mediterranean Sea, with reported missile firings, further underscores the global dimension of the conflict and the potential for escalation beyond Ukraine's borders.

The reported resignation of Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, if confirmed, could potentially impact international support for Ukraine. However, the immediate military implications are likely to be minimal.

The new messages regarding the lifting of the threat of ballistic missiles and the cessation of the threat of attack drones provide a temporary reprieve for the affected regions. However, the continued drone activity and the potential for further attacks underscore the persistent threat to Ukrainian airspace.

The video from "ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS" showcasing the operations of Ukrainian Special Operations Forces in the Kursk region highlights the ongoing efforts by Ukrainian forces to counter Russian advances and inflict casualties. The use of snipers, engineers, artillery, and drone operators demonstrates the multifaceted nature of Ukrainian operations in the region.

The image from "Повітряні Сили ЗС України" reporting the downing of 2 guided air missiles and 79 enemy UAVs, with 49 UAVs "locationally lost," provides further evidence of the intense aerial engagements taking place. The reported damage to buildings in several regions due to falling debris highlights the risks to civilian infrastructure.

The new messages regarding the damage to the "Ukrzaliznytsia" contact line due to a drone attack and the damage to private houses and a car in one of the settlements underscore the continued impact of the conflict on civilian infrastructure and the lives of ordinary Ukrainians.

The announcement by the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense regarding the Strategy for the Development of Human Capital in the Defense Forces until 2027 indicates a long-term focus on improving the capabilities and well-being of Ukrainian military personnel. The emphasis on cooperation with NATO and the implementation of Euro-Atlantic standards suggests a commitment to further integration with Western military structures.

The multiple reports of drone attacks and aerial engagements across various regions of Ukraine, including Chernihiv, Sumy, Cherkasy, Poltava, Kyiv, Kharkiv, and Zaporizhzhia, highlight the widespread nature of the aerial threat and the constant pressure on Ukrainian air defenses. The reported damage to civilian infrastructure and the potential for casualties underscore the ongoing risks to the civilian population.

The continued fighting in the Kursk region, with reports of Ukrainian advances and the use of drones by both sides, indicates that this area remains a key focal point of the conflict. The reported destruction of Russian equipment and personnel by Ukrainian forces suggests that the Ukrainian offensive in the region, while suffering heavy losses, is still ongoing.

The new messages regarding the fire in Kirov Oblast and the need for medical assistance for one person, while not directly related to military operations, highlight the broader challenges faced by the civilian population in regions affected by the conflict.

The multiple reports of drone attacks on Russian territory, including the Belgorod, Bryansk, Kursk, Tula, and Astrakhan regions, demonstrate the ongoing threat posed by Ukrainian drones to Russian infrastructure and military assets. The reported damage to railway infrastructure in the Voronezh region and the power outages in the Grayvoron district of Belgorod Oblast underscore the potential for disruption to Russian logistics and civilian life.

The reported elimination of a group of Russian soldiers using FPV drones by the 110th Mechanized Brigade, as well as the geolocation of battles in the Kursk region, provide further evidence of the intensity of the fighting and the continued use of drones by both sides.

The information about the encirclement of Pokrovsk being one of Russia's key operational goals, along with the reported activity of Russian troops east of Pokrovsk, suggests that this area is likely to see further intensified fighting in the coming days.

The reported air strikes by the 11th Guards Air Assault Army on Ukrainian positions near Konstantinopol and the attacks on settlements in the Zaporizhzhia Oblast indicate that Russian forces continue to utilize a wide range of military assets, including aviation, drones, MLRS, and artillery, to pressure Ukrainian defenses.

The video analysis of a Ukrainian soldier named Roman who claims he lost a finger for refusing to fight and wanting to surrender, if true, highlights the potential for low morale and disciplinary issues within the Ukrainian military.

The image analysis of houses and a warehouse roof damaged by falling drone debris, along with the video showing the work of the 148th Separate Artillery Brigade of the Air Assault Forces, provide further evidence of the impact of the conflict on civilian infrastructure and the ongoing efforts by Ukrainian forces to counter Russian attacks.

The image analysis of the area around Toretsk, with red arrows indicating Russian advances, underscores the critical situation in this area and the potential for further Russian gains.

The video analysis of the Rosgvardiya under the command of "Talib" repelling a Ukrainian attack in the Sudzha district, along with the video of the Caspian Marines' UAV operators adjusting fire at enemy positions in the border area of the Kursk region, highlights the ongoing efforts by Russian forces to counter Ukrainian advances and maintain control of the border areas.

The image analysis of a military truck with the text "CHEUTACHO" on the side, indicating that it is likely part of a chemical supply truck group, raises concerns about the potential use of chemical weapons in the conflict.

The image analysis of a portrait of Bohdan Khmelnytsky, the creator and first hetman of the Zaporozhian Host, serves as a reminder of the historical context of the conflict and the long-standing struggle for Ukrainian independence.

The fundraising efforts by the "Two Majors" Telegram channel to purchase equipment for assault units on the Kherson direction, including a quad bike, satellite communication devices, electronic warfare systems, drone detectors, and boat motors, highlight the ongoing need for military equipment and the reliance on crowdfunding to support Ukrainian forces.

The interview with a wounded Russian volunteer who lost his legs in the conflict provides a glimpse into the personal motivations and sacrifices of those fighting on the Russian side. The video is likely intended to boost morale and portray the commitment of Russian soldiers to the cause.

The new message from TASS regarding the opinion of epidemiologist Gennady Onishchenko about epidemics and pandemics being a stimulus for human evolution does not directly impact the military situation in Ukraine. However, it highlights the broader context of biological threats and the importance of preparedness for potential health crises, which can have indirect implications for military operations and strategic planning.

The new message from "Дневник Десантника" regarding the situation in the Kursk region provides further evidence of the intensity of the fighting in this area. The reported destruction of a Ukrainian column, the capture of Leonidovo, and the advances near Makhnovka and in the Sudzha district indicate that Russian forces are making progress in repelling the Ukrainian offensive and consolidating their positions. The reported use of drones with fiber-optic cable control, helicopter-launched guided missiles, and artillery highlights the diverse range of military assets being employed by Russian forces in the region. The mention of Ukrainian forces using 2-3 company tactical groups and the reported losses of over 250 personnel and 25 armored fighting vehicles in the Sumy Oblast underscore the scale of the Ukrainian offensive and the heavy losses they have suffered.

The new message from "Оперативний ЗСУ" regarding the suspected damage to a telecommunications cable near Taiwan by a Chinese vessel does not directly impact the military situation in Ukraine. However, it highlights the broader geopolitical tensions in the region and the potential for disruptions to critical infrastructure, which could have indirect implications for the conflict. The reported involvement of a Chinese-owned company and the proximity to Taiwan's coast raise concerns about potential Chinese activities aimed at undermining Taiwan's communications and security.

The new message from "ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS" reporting the declaration of an air alert in the Kyiv Oblast due to the threat of missile strikes underscores the continued threat to Ukraine's capital and the potential for further attacks on civilian infrastructure.

The new message from "Оперативний ЗСУ" reporting an air alert in several oblasts due to the threat of ballistics, along with the accompanying image showing the affected regions, provides further evidence of the widespread nature of the aerial threat to Ukraine. The concentration of alerts in the eastern and central parts of the country, including Kyiv, highlights the ongoing risk of missile strikes and the need for continued vigilance.

The new message from "Повітряні Сили ЗС України" announcing the end of the threat of ballistics provides a temporary reprieve for the affected regions, but the continued threat of drone attacks and other aerial threats remains.

The new message from TASS regarding the increased efforts to clean up oil spills in the Anapa area of the Krasnodar region does not directly impact the military situation in Ukraine. However, it highlights the environmental consequences of the conflict and the ongoing efforts to mitigate the damage.

The new message from "Старше Эдды" regarding the official confirmation of the capture of Kurakhove by Russian forces provides further evidence of the significant Russian gains in the Donetsk region. The detailed account of the Ukrainian defenses, the forces involved, and the heavy losses suffered by Ukrainian forces underscores the intensity of the fighting and the strategic importance of Kurakhove. The reported capture of this important logistical hub and the disruption of Ukrainian supply lines will likely have a significant impact on the further course of the conflict in the Donetsk direction.

The new message from "РБК-Україна" regarding the request for assistance from the MANTICORA drone battalion of the 155th Separate Mechanized Brigade highlights the ongoing need for military equipment and the reliance on crowdfunding to support Ukrainian forces. The list of required equipment, including charging stations, generators, satellite communication systems, vehicles, frequency scanners, tablets, and ground stations for FPV drones, underscores the importance of modern technology in the conflict and the specific needs of drone units.

The new message from "РБК-Україна" regarding the attempted burning of flags of fallen soldiers in Kyiv's Maidan Nezalezhnosti by a vandal highlights the internal tensions and challenges faced by Ukraine during the conflict. While this incident does not directly impact the military situation on the front lines, it underscores the need for maintaining social cohesion and addressing internal threats to morale and national unity.

The new message from "STERNENKO" regarding the ongoing work in the swamps and the need for more drones emphasizes the continued importance of drone warfare in the conflict and the reliance on crowdfunding to support these efforts. The graphic nature of the accompanying video, showing the elimination of enemy personnel and equipment, serves as a reminder of the brutal reality of the conflict and the potential psychological impact on both combatants and the wider public.

The new message from "Сили оборони Півдня України" reporting the destruction of two S-300 air defense systems, along with other military equipment and personnel, highlights the ongoing efforts by Ukrainian forces to degrade Russian air defense capabilities and inflict losses on enemy forces in the southern operational zone. The reported use of FPV drones and guided bombs underscores the continued reliance on precision strikes and the importance of modern technology in the conflict.

The new message from ASTRA regarding Hamas's offer to release 34 hostages as part of a ceasefire agreement in the Gaza Strip does not directly impact the military situation in Ukraine. However, it highlights the broader geopolitical context and the ongoing conflicts in other regions, which can have indirect implications for the situation in Ukraine.

The new message from "Оперативний ЗСУ" quoting US Secretary of State Antony Blinken regarding the importance of Ukrainian positions in the Kursk region for future negotiations underscores the strategic significance of this area and the potential for the conflict to expand beyond Ukraine's borders. The reported Ukrainian advances in the Kursk region, while suffering heavy losses, could potentially influence the dynamics of any future negotiations and the overall course of the conflict.

The new message from "Воин DV" showing artillery fire from the 29th Army of the "Vostok" group targeting enemy positions in Yantarnoe on the right bank of the Sukhi Yaly River provides further evidence of the ongoing fighting in the Donetsk region. The use of artillery and the focus on targeting enemy positions in a specific settlement highlight the tactical nature of the conflict and the continued efforts by Russian forces to gain ground in the area.

The new message from "ОТУ 'Харків'" reporting the estimated enemy losses, including over 798,040 personnel and significant amounts of military equipment, underscores the scale of the conflict and the heavy toll it has taken on both sides. The reported losses, attributed to the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, provide a glimpse into the intensity of the fighting and the ongoing efforts by Ukrainian forces to degrade the enemy's combat capabilities.

The new message from TASS reporting on Dmitry Medvedev's statement regarding the Russian people's disdain for Zelensky and the need for continued retribution even after his removal from office highlights the deep-seated animosity and the potential for long-lasting consequences of the conflict. This statement underscores the personal and emotional dimension of the conflict and the challenges that will likely persist even after the active fighting subsides.

Key Developments

Intensified Ground Operations and Russian Advances

Donetsk Region:
- Critical Situation in Toretsk: The situation in Toretsk has significantly deteriorated, with reports indicating that less than 15% of the city remains under Ukrainian control. Russian forces control the entire southern part of the city and have advanced further into the city.
- Russian Advances: Russian forces have captured Kurakhove and are advancing towards Pokrovsk, posing a direct threat to the strategic Pokrovsk-Konstantinovka highway. They report advances near Chasiv Yar, Belogorovka, Ukrainka, Novyi Trud, Ivan-Daryevka, Slavyanka, Petropavlovka, Myrolyubivka, Vodyane Druhe, Baranivka, Zelene Pole, and Tymofiivka. Russian forces are intensifying attacks on the Pokrovsk-Konstantinovka highway and making progress in Novovasylivka, southwest of Pokrovsk. Positional fighting continues in the Krasnoarmiisk-Novoaleksandrivka direction. Russian forces are consolidating their positions near Berdin.
- Heroic Battle near Pokrovsk: A Russian tank, accompanied by two BMPs, engaged two Ukrainian tanks at a close range near Yelyzavetivka, east of Pokrovsk. The Russian tank successfully destroyed one Ukrainian tank. The second Ukrainian tank retreated. Following this engagement, Russian infantry secured positions in Yelyzavetivka.
- Ukrainian Resistance: Ukrainian forces are attempting to repel the Russian advance, reporting that they repelled a Russian assault near Velyka Novosilka and pushed Russian forces out of the southern part of Novoielizavetivka. Street fighting continues in Toretsk.
- Casualties: Ukrainian forces report repelling 30 Russian attacks in the Pokrovsk direction and claim to have neutralized 304 Russian troops, with 130 killed. They also report destroying one tank, four BMPs, six vehicles, one artillery system, and ten UAVs. Two artillery systems, one vehicle, and one tank were damaged.
- Chasiv Yar: Fighting is reported at the "Chasiv Yar Refractory Plant," with Russian forces claiming new positions in the northern part of Chasiv Yar and an advance of up to 1.5 km.
Kursk Region:
- Major Ukrainian Offensive: A major Ukrainian offensive is underway, with intense fighting reported near Leonidovo, Berdin, Bolshoe Soldatskoe, Martynovka, and Pushkarnoe. The Ukrainian General Staff reports over 40 battles in the Kursk region. The US has confirmed the political significance of the Kursk operation, with Secretary of State Blinken stating that the position in Kursk is important for future negotiations.
- Russian Counterattack: Russian forces report repelling a Ukrainian counterattack near Berdin and claim to have destroyed multiple Ukrainian vehicles, including a British Challenger tank. They are engaged in battles near Leonidovo, Alexandria, and Kruglenkoye, with ongoing assaults towards Viktorovka. The 106th Airborne Division is conducting active assault operations in the forests near Sverdlikovo and Lebedevka. Russian paratroopers are reportedly pushing Ukrainian forces out of Makhnovka and Dmitryukov in the Kursk region. They also destroyed Ukrainian firing points with a 2S9 Nona-S self-propelled mortar.
- Situation near Berdin: Russian forces are reportedly eliminating remaining Ukrainian troops near Berdin without significant resistance. Expected Ukrainian reserves have not arrived, suggesting a potential failure in the Ukrainian offensive plan.
- Casualties: Russian sources claim the Ukrainian military has lost over 540 troops, with new reports indicating even heavier losses, reaching 48,000 casualties.
- Continued Fighting: Fighting continues near Berdin and Malaya Loknya, with Russian forces making advances in the Sudzha area, particularly near Makhnovka.
- Ukrainian Units Identified: The Ukrainian units involved in the offensive are identified as the 95th, 92nd, 22nd, 82nd, and 225th Brigades, although it is clarified that only parts of these brigades are involved.
- Drone Attack on Kursk: Reports indicate a drone attack on Kursk, with claims of a "massive raid from several sides at once." Air defense systems were reportedly active.
- New Update: The situation on the front in the Sverdlikovo and Lebedevka area remains tense, with active assault operations taking place in the forests. Despite heavy losses, the Ukrainian forces are reportedly not retreating and are bringing in new reserves. Russian forces are using aviation, artillery, and drones. Drones such as the Mavic and FPV, as well as remote mining, are being used.
Luhansk Region:
- Russian Advances: The Russian Ministry of Defense reports that Russian forces have liberated Nadia.
- New Update: Russian forces have captured Ivanivka near Terny, according to both Russian and Ukrainian sources. This marks a significant Russian advance in the Luhansk region. Russian forces are also attempting to capture heights beyond Ivanovka near Terny and are storming Zahryzove.
- Repelled Infiltrations: Russian forces have successfully repelled over 30 attempts by Ukrainian forces and foreign mercenaries to penetrate the territory of the Luhansk People's Republic in the past week. Ukrainian losses are reported to be over 8,000 soldiers and mercenaries.

Drone Warfare and Aerial Attacks

Extensive Drone Activity: Drone warfare continues to be a dominant feature of the conflict, with both sides utilizing drones extensively.
- Ukrainian forces report successful drone strikes on Russian targets, including a command post near the Toretsk mine. FPV drones are being used extensively, particularly by Russian forces, causing significant damage to Ukrainian equipment and personnel.
- New Drone Targets: Russian drones are targeting Chernihiv and Nizhyn.
- Drone Movements: Reports indicate drone movements in Chernihiv, Poltava, Cherkasy, Kyiv, Mykolaiv, Zhytomyr, and Kirovohrad. Ukrainian air defenses reportedly shot down 7 drones over Dnipropetrovsk Oblast.
- New Update: 340 additional drones have been procured by Ukrainian forces thanks to donations, bringing the total to 134,114 FPV drones. Overnight, Ukrainian air defense forces shot down 10 Russian drones over Cherkasy Oblast.
Air Defense Engagements:
- Ukrainian air defense forces are actively engaging hostile drones. Reports indicate drone activity near Kyiv. The threat of attack drones has been lifted across all regions, according to the Ukrainian Air Force.
- A Ukrainian drone was shot down over the Bryansk region of Russia. No casualties or damage were reported.
- Explosions were reported in Cherkasy and its outskirts.
- A Ukrainian missile was shot down over the territory of the Kursk region.
Air Raid Alerts: Air raid alerts are active in Kyiv and several other regions. Air raid alerts have been lifted in Zaporizhzhia oblast.
New Drone Activity:
- Zhytomyr Oblast: Drones are reported in the northern part, moving west. One drone was reported east of Zviahel, moving southwest.
- Kyiv Oblast: Drones are present in the northern part, moving west. Three drones are reported to be circling in the north, with one approaching Boryspil and one having flown past Obukhiv towards Kyiv.
- Chernihiv Oblast: Drones are observed in the northern and southern parts, moving west. Two drones are reported to be circling north of Chernihiv, and one is reported to be southwest of Chernihiv with a southeast trajectory. One drone is also reported to be circling near Pryluky.
- Kirovohrad Oblast: Drones are present in the eastern part, moving southwest.
- Kharkiv Oblast: Drones are reported to be moving from Kharkiv Oblast towards Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. Three drones are also reported to be near Lozova. The Ukrainian Air Force has reported increased activity of Russian tactical aviation in the north-eastern direction, posing a potential threat of air and missile strikes. Additionally, there is a reported threat of Shahed drones in Kharkiv and Sumy Oblasts, with drones observed on the border of Kharkiv and Sumy Oblasts, moving towards Poltava Oblast.
- Dnipropetrovsk Oblast: One drone is reported to be in the Kryvyi Rih district with a trajectory towards the Kherson region, and another is flying over Dolynska in a southerly direction. One drone is also reported to be circling over Samara.
- Poltava Oblast: One drone is reported to be circling south of Poltava. One drone was reported west of Kremenchuk, constantly changing course.
- Cherkasy Oblast: One drone was reported in the eastern part, constantly changing course. One drone is reported to be in the western part, moving south.

Geopolitical Developments

Zelensky's Statements: Zelensky has indicated a willingness to limit the scope of potential NATO membership to Ukrainian-controlled territory and expressed openness to attending Trump's inauguration if invited. He also hopes that Trump can end the war and provide strong security guarantees to Ukraine. Zelensky stated that elections in Ukraine could be held 90 days after the war's end. He also expressed a desire for Elon Musk to be maximally on Ukraine's side, acknowledging his gratitude for "Starlinks." In an interview, Zelensky stated that Ukraine would be open to a ceasefire if partners provided weapons to repel future Russian attacks.
Potential Meeting Between Scholz and Putin: Reports suggest that German Chancellor Scholz may meet with Russian President Putin before February 23.
Apple CEO's Potential Donation to Trump's Inauguration: Tim Cook, CEO of Apple, is reportedly planning to donate $1 million to Donald Trump's inauguration.
Legal Action Against Von Der Leyen: A Belgian court will consider whether European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has legal immunity against corruption allegations related to the purchase of COVID-19 vaccines.
German Foreign Minister on Aid to Syria: German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock has made the provision of aid to Syria under new authorities dependent on respect for women's rights, stating that the EU will not send money "to Islamist structures."
North Korean Missile Launch: North Korea has reportedly launched a suspected ballistic missile, according to the Japanese coast guard. The missile fell outside of Japan's exclusive economic zone in the Sea of Japan.

Other Significant Developments