Military Situation in Ukraine: Major Updates as of January 5, 2025, 17:14 UTC

Donetsk Region

• Intense Fighting: The Donetsk region remains the epicenter of the conflict, with heavy fighting reported around Kurakhove, Pokrovsk, Toretsk, and Chasiv Yar.
• Russian Advances: Russian forces have made significant gains, capturing Kurakhove and advancing towards Pokrovsk, posing a direct threat to the strategic Pokrovsk-Konstantinovka highway. They also report advances near Chasiv Yar, Belogorovka, Ukrainka, Novyi Trud, and Ivan-Daryevka. Russian forces have also made progress in the northern part of Kurakhove, with ongoing clearing operations in the city's industrial zone.
• Ukrainian Resistance: Ukrainian forces are attempting to repel the Russian advance, reporting that they repelled a Russian assault near Velyka Novosilka. Street fighting continues in Toretsk.
• Casualties: Ukrainian forces report repelling 30 Russian attacks and claim significant Russian losses.
• Drone Warfare: Both sides are utilizing drones extensively in the Donetsk region. Ukrainian forces report successful drone strikes on Russian targets in the area.
• Tank Battle: A tank battle was reported in Yelyzavetivka, with a Russian tank column engaging two Ukrainian tanks, resulting in the destruction of one Ukrainian tank and the retreat of the other.
• Krasnoarmeysk Direction: Russian forces continue their offensive operations to the south of Krasnoarmeysk and near Vozdvyzhenka, intensifying the winter campaign. They are reported to have destroyed Ukrainian infantry and equipment in this area.

Kursk Region

• Ukrainian Offensive: A new Ukrainian offensive is underway, with intense fighting reported near multiple settlements, including Leonidovo, Berdin, Bolshoe Soldatskoe, Martynovka, and Pushkarnoe. The offensive appears to be focused on the area around Bolshoe Soldatskoe.
• Russian Counterattack: Russian forces report repelling a Ukrainian counterattack near Berdin, involving tanks, infantry fighting vehicles, and a demining vehicle. They claim to have destroyed multiple Ukrainian vehicles.
• Disputed Narrative: Reports of disagreements among Russian propagandists regarding the situation in the Kursk region suggest potential internal tensions and conflicting narratives within Russian media.
• Drone Warfare: Ukrainian and Russian forces report successful drone strikes on various targets in the region. Ukrainian drone units report successful strikes on Russian armored vehicles. Russian forces report destroying Ukrainian vehicles and using drones to target Ukrainian positions.
• Casualties: Russian sources claim the Ukrainian military has lost over 540 troops in the region.
• Evacuation of Wounded: Russian forces report that Ukrainian troops are attempting to evacuate their wounded, with Russian drones targeting the evacuation vehicles.
• Continued Fighting: Fighting continues near Berdin, with Ukrainian forces attempting to advance. The situation remains fluid, with both sides engaged in active combat.

Luhansk Region

• Russian Advances: The Russian Ministry of Defense reports that Russian forces have liberated Nadia. Russian forces are also attempting to capture heights beyond Ivanovka near Terny and are storming Zahryzove.
• Drone Warfare: Ukrainian forces report destroying a Russian "Baba Yaga" drone near Kupyansk.

Vremivka Direction

• Russian Gains: Russian forces captured Storozheve, forming a new "pocket" near Velyka Novosilka, and liberated Uspenovka and Novyi Komar.

Zaporizhzhia Direction

• Ukrainian Preparations: Ukrainian forces report they are amassing reserves for an offensive.
• Drone Activity: Ukrainian forces report shooting down three Russian reconnaissance drones.
• Artillery and Drone Strikes: Ukrainian artillery units report significant successes in the Vovchansk direction, claiming to have destroyed multiple enemy positions, equipment, and personnel. This suggests effective targeting and coordination between drone reconnaissance and artillery strikes.

Sumy Oblast

• Drone Attacks: The Ukrainian Air Force reports a threat of Russian drone attacks in the Sumy region, indicating a potential escalation in this area. Heavy airstrikes were also reported.
• Drone Activity: Multiple new groups of Russian drones are entering Ukrainian airspace, particularly in Sumy Oblast.

Kharkiv Region

• Drone Activity: Multiple new groups of Russian drones are entering Ukrainian airspace, particularly in Kharkiv Oblast.

Drone Warfare

• Intensification: Drone warfare continues to be a dominant feature of the conflict, with both sides utilizing drones for reconnaissance, targeting, and attacks.
• Russian Training: The Russian Ministry of Defense released a video showcasing a field school for UAV operators, highlighting efforts to improve drone capabilities and adapt to battlefield conditions.
• Ukrainian Countermeasures: Ukrainian forces are effectively employing drones, particularly in conjunction with artillery strikes.

Other Key Developments

• Troop Mobilization: The Washington Post reports that Ukraine has only managed to mobilize 200,000 troops in 2024, falling short of the 500,000 called for by former Commander-in-Chief Zaluzhny. This contrasts with reports of over 450,000 volunteers joining the Russian military.
• Environmental Concerns: Oil spills from sunken tankers in the Black Sea have reached the coasts of Crimea, causing the deaths of dolphins.
• Restoration of Services: "Diia" has restored access to several important services, including extracts on the place of residence of children, updating data on the place of residence of children, "Winter eSupport" for children, and social benefits.

Strategic Analysis

The military situation in Ukraine remains highly volatile and dynamic. Russian forces are making significant advances in the Donetsk region, particularly around Kurakhove and Pokrovsk, posing a serious threat to Ukrainian defenses. The new Ukrainian offensive in the Kursk region, while met with resistance, demonstrates Ukraine's willingness to engage in offensive operations.

Drone warfare continues to be a defining feature of the conflict, with both sides utilizing drones extensively. The Russian emphasis on training UAV operators and modifying drones with 3D-printed parts indicates an attempt to enhance their drone capabilities. Ukrainian forces are also effectively employing drones, particularly in conjunction with artillery strikes.

The dispute over Ukrainian troop numbers raises questions about Ukraine's ability to sustain a prolonged war of attrition. The reported tank battle in Yelyzavetivka and the ongoing fighting in the Kursk region highlight the intensity of the conflict along the border areas.

The environmental damage caused by the oil spills in the Black Sea adds an environmental dimension to the conflict and could lead to increased international pressure on Russia.

The situation in the Kursk region is particularly noteworthy, with both sides claiming successes. The conflicting reports and internal disagreements among Russian sources suggest uncertainty about the true state of affairs. The Ukrainian offensive in this area, coupled with reports of Russian troop movements in Sumy Oblast, indicates a potential widening of the conflict along the border.

The continued fighting in multiple regions and the high level of drone activity suggest that the conflict is far from over and that both sides are committed to achieving their strategic objectives. The coming days and weeks will likely see further developments, with the potential for increased escalation and significant shifts in the balance of power.

Recommendations

1. Reinforce Pokrovsk and Key Locations: Urgently reinforce defenses around Pokrovsk, Chasiv Yar, and along the Pokrovsk-Konstantinovka highway to counter the Russian advance. Deploy additional troops, anti-tank weapons, and air defense systems to these critical areas.
2. Enhance Drone Capabilities: Continue to invest in the development and deployment of advanced drone systems for reconnaissance, targeting, and attack missions. Focus on increasing the range, payload capacity, and precision of drones to strike high-value targets deep inside enemy territory.
3. Improve Counter-Drone Measures: Deploy advanced counter-drone systems to detect, track, and neutralize enemy drones. Develop and implement tactics to counter the threat posed by FPV drones, particularly in areas where Russian forces are attempting to evacuate their wounded.
4. Secure Critical Infrastructure: Enhance the protection of critical infrastructure, particularly nuclear power plants, to prevent potential catastrophic incidents. Deploy additional air defense systems and security personnel to these facilities.
5. Maintain Offensive Pressure: Continue to exert offensive pressure on Russian forces in multiple regions, including the Kursk and Kharkiv regions, to disrupt their operations and prevent them from concentrating their forces in any one area. Exploit any successes achieved in the Vovchansk direction.
6. Address Troop Mobilization Challenges: Take steps to address any shortcomings in troop mobilization efforts to ensure sufficient manpower for sustained operations.
7. Strengthen International Support: Seek further military and financial assistance from international partners to sustain the war effort. Emphasize the need for advanced weapons systems, including long-range missiles, air defense systems, and counter-drone technology.
8. Information Warfare: Counter Russian disinformation and propaganda efforts by providing accurate and timely information to the public. Highlight Ukrainian successes and Russian losses to maintain morale and international support. Exploit any internal disagreements or conflicting narratives within Russian media to sow confusion and undermine morale among Russian forces and the public.
9. Logistical Preparedness: Ensure the availability of sufficient supplies, ammunition, and equipment to sustain operations. Anticipate and mitigate potential logistical challenges, particularly in the face of increased drone attacks and potential disruptions to supply lines.
10. Intelligence Gathering: Enhance intelligence-gathering capabilities to monitor Russian troop movements, identify potential threats, and anticipate future actions. Utilize all available sources, including satellite imagery, signals intelligence, and human intelligence. Pay particular attention to the situation in Sumy Oblast and any signs of further escalation or Russian incursions.
11. Training and Adaptation: Continuously train troops on the latest tactics and technologies, with a particular focus on drone warfare and counter-drone measures. Adapt strategies and tactics based on the evolving nature of the conflict and lessons learned from operational outcomes.
12. Mitigate Environmental Damage: Take steps to address the environmental damage caused by the oil spills in the Black Sea. Seek international assistance in cleanup efforts and highlight the ecological consequences of the conflict.
13. Exploit Russian Weaknesses: Capitalize on any internal disagreements or conflicting narratives within Russian media to sow confusion and undermine morale among Russian forces and the public.
14. Enhance Counter-Tank Capabilities: Deploy additional anti-tank weapons and units to areas where armored engagements are likely, such as Yelyzavetivka and other points along the front lines.
15. Monitor and Respond to Developments: Closely monitor the situation in all regions, particularly in areas where Russian forces are making advances or where Ukrainian forces are conducting offensive operations. Be prepared to adjust strategies and redeploy forces as needed to respond to emerging threats and opportunities.
16. Prepare for Potential Escalation: Given the increased drone activity in Sumy Oblast and the ongoing fighting in the Kursk region, be prepared for the possibility of the conflict widening along the border. Develop contingency plans for responding to potential Russian incursions or escalations in these areas.
17. Maintain Operational Security: Emphasize the importance of operational security to prevent Russian forces from gaining intelligence on Ukrainian troop movements, deployments, and intentions.
18. Prioritize Troop Welfare: Ensure that troops are adequately equipped, supplied, and supported to maintain morale and combat effectiveness. Address any issues related to troop welfare, including medical care, rest, and rotation.
19. Develop a Clear Strategic Vision: Ensure that all military operations are aligned with a clear strategic vision and long-term objectives. Regularly assess the effectiveness of current strategies and make adjustments as needed to achieve desired outcomes.
20. Foster Innovation: Encourage innovation and the development of new technologies and tactics to counter emerging threats and maintain a competitive advantage. Invest in research and development, particularly in areas such as drone warfare, counter-drone measures, and electronic warfare.