Military Situation Report: Ukraine - January 5, 2025, 16:00:00 UTC

Executive Summary

The situation in Ukraine remains highly dynamic, with intense fighting concentrated in the Donetsk, Kursk, and Kharkiv regions. Russian forces have made significant gains in Donetsk, capturing Kurakhove and advancing towards Pokrovsk, posing a threat to the strategic Pokrovsk-Konstantinovka highway. A new Ukrainian offensive in the Kursk region is underway, with heavy fighting reported near multiple settlements. Drone warfare continues to be a dominant feature, with both sides utilizing drones for reconnaissance, targeting, and attacks. Ukrainian forces report successful drone strikes on Russian targets, including the destruction of several reconnaissance drones and reports of the ability to strike targets up to 2,000 km away.

Key Developments

Donetsk Region

Kurakhove: Russian forces have captured Kurakhove, with intense fighting reported on the outskirts. Ukrainian forces report Russian drone activity in the area. The loss of Kurakhove is a significant strategic setback for Ukraine.
Pokrovsk: Russian forces continue their advance towards Pokrovsk, with Ukrainian forces attempting to push them back. The liberation of Vozdvyzhenka brings Russian forces closer to the strategic Pokrovsk-Konstantinovka highway. Drone warfare is intensifying in the area, with both sides reporting successful strikes.
Other Areas:
- Street fighting continues in Toretsk.
- Positional fighting is reported in the Lysychansk-Belohorivka area.
- Russian forces report advances near Chasiv Yar, Belogorovka, Ukrainka, Novyi Trud, and Ivan-Daryevka.
- Ukrainian forces report repelling a Russian assault near Velyka Novosilka.
- Russian forces are reportedly using FPV drones to target Ukrainian positions in the Kurakhove direction.

Kursk Region

Intense Fighting: Fighting has intensified, particularly near Leonidovo, with reports of Ukrainian drone and HIMARS strikes. Russian forces are reportedly pressing Ukrainian forces on all fronts. Ukrainian forces have launched a new offensive in the region, with heavy fighting reported near Berdin, Bolshoe Soldatskoe, Martynovka, and Pushkarnoe. Russian forces report repelling these attacks and inflicting heavy losses on Ukrainian forces.
Russian Advances: Russian forces report advancing towards Cherkasskoye Porechnoye, Kruglenkoye, Sudzha, Martynovka, and Cherkasskaya Konopelka. They also report advances in the Sudzha area, particularly near Makhnovka and Dmitryukov.
Active Combat Near Sudzha: Russian forces are attacking towards Viktorivka.
Casualties: Ukrainian forces report repelling 30 Russian attacks and claim significant Russian losses. Russian sources claim the Ukrainian military has lost over 540 troops in the region.
Drone Warfare: Ukrainian drone units report successful strikes on Russian armored vehicles and other targets. Russian forces report destroying Ukrainian vehicles and using drones to target Ukrainian positions.

Luhansk Region

The Russian Ministry of Defense reports that Russian forces have liberated Nadia.
Russian forces are attempting to capture heights beyond Ivanovka near Terny.
Russian forces report storming Ukrainian positions near Terny.
Russian forces are storming Zahryzove.

Vremivka Direction

Russian forces captured Storozheve, forming a new "pocket" near Velyka Novosilka, and liberated Uspenovka and Novyi Komar.

Other Regions

Belgorod Region: Two civilians were injured in a drone attack on a vehicle. Partial power outages were reported in Shebekino due to shelling.
Donetsk People's Republic (DPR): Four civilians were injured in Panteleimonovka (Yasynuvata district) due to shelling. A radio operator of the Russian Ministry of Emergency Situations was injured in Horlivka.
Zaporizhzhia Direction: Ukrainian forces report they are amassing reserves for an offensive. Russian forces continue to launch airstrikes on concentrations of Ukrainian forces. Ukrainian forces report shooting down three Russian reconnaissance drones.
Sumy Oblast: Heavy airstrikes were reported. Ukrainian Air Force reports the use of guided aerial bombs (KABs).

Drone Warfare and Aerial Attacks

Extensive Drone Activity: Drone warfare remains a dominant feature of the conflict. Both Ukrainian and Russian forces report successful drone strikes on various targets.
Drone Attacks on Russia: Multiple drones were destroyed over various regions of Russia.
New Drone Threats: Multiple new groups of Russian drones are entering Ukrainian airspace, particularly in Sumy and Kharkiv Oblasts.

Strategic Analysis

The capture of Kurakhove by Russian forces is a significant development that could shift the balance of power in the Donetsk region. The advance towards Pokrovsk and the threat to the Pokrovsk-Konstantinovka highway pose a serious challenge to Ukrainian defenses. The new Ukrainian offensive in the Kursk region, while met with resistance, indicates Ukraine's willingness to take the fight to Russian territory. The extensive use of drones by both sides highlights the evolving nature of the conflict, with drones playing an increasingly crucial role in reconnaissance, targeting, and attack operations. The reported Ukrainian capability to strike targets up to 2,000 km away, if confirmed, represents a significant escalation and could potentially target critical infrastructure deep inside Russia. The attacks on the Novovoronezh and Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plants, while unsuccessful, underscore the increasing risk to critical infrastructure and the potential for the conflict to expand beyond conventional military targets. The continued fighting in multiple regions and the high level of drone activity suggest that the conflict is far from over and that both sides are committed to achieving their strategic objectives.

Recommendations

Reinforce Pokrovsk Defenses: Prioritize the reinforcement of defenses around Pokrovsk and along the Pokrovsk-Konstantinovka highway to counter the Russian advance. Deploy additional troops, anti-tank weapons, and air defense systems to the area.
Enhance Drone Capabilities: Continue to invest in the development and deployment of advanced drone systems for reconnaissance, targeting, and attack missions. Focus on increasing the range and payload capacity of drones to strike high-value targets deep inside enemy territory.
Improve Counter-Drone Measures: Deploy advanced counter-drone systems to detect, track, and neutralize enemy drones. Develop and implement tactics to counter the threat posed by FPV drones.
Secure Critical Infrastructure: Enhance the protection of critical infrastructure, particularly nuclear power plants, to prevent potential catastrophic incidents. Deploy additional air defense systems and security personnel to these facilities.
Maintain Offensive Pressure: Continue to exert offensive pressure on Russian forces in multiple regions to disrupt their operations and prevent them from concentrating their forces in any one area.
Strengthen International Support: Seek further military and financial assistance from international partners to sustain the war effort. Emphasize the need for advanced weapons systems, including long-range missiles and air defense systems.
Information Warfare: Counter Russian disinformation and propaganda efforts by providing accurate and timely information to the public. Highlight Ukrainian successes and Russian losses to maintain morale and international support.
Logistical Preparedness: Ensure the availability of sufficient supplies, ammunition, and equipment to sustain operations. Anticipate and mitigate potential logistical challenges, particularly in the face of increased drone attacks.
Intelligence Gathering: Enhance intelligence gathering capabilities to monitor Russian troop movements, identify potential threats, and anticipate future actions. Utilize all available sources, including satellite imagery, signals intelligence, and human intelligence.
Training and Adaptation: Continuously train troops on the latest tactics and technologies, with a particular focus on drone warfare and counter-drone measures. Adapt strategies and tactics based on the evolving nature of the conflict and lessons learned from operational outcomes.

Updated Situations Based on New Messages:

The new messages add several important details to the overall military situation:

Increased Drone Activity in Sumy Oblast: The Ukrainian Air Force reports a threat of Russian drone attacks in the Sumy region, indicating a potential escalation in this area. This aligns with earlier reports of increased shelling and the use of guided aerial bombs in the region.
Artillery Successes in Vovchansk Direction: Ukrainian artillery units report significant successes in the Vovchansk direction, claiming to have destroyed multiple enemy positions, equipment, and personnel. This suggests effective targeting and coordination between drone reconnaissance and artillery strikes.
Russian Counterattack Near Berdin: The Russian Ministry of Defense reports a Ukrainian counterattack near Berdin in the Kursk region, involving tanks, infantry fighting vehicles, and a demining vehicle. Russian forces claim to have repelled the attack, destroying multiple Ukrainian vehicles. This indicates ongoing intense fighting in the area.
Dispute Over Ukrainian Troop Numbers: The Washington Post reports that Ukraine has only managed to mobilize 200,000 troops in 2024, falling short of the 500,000 called for by former Commander-in-Chief Zaluzhny. This contrasts with reports of over 450,000 volunteers joining the Russian military. The discrepancy in troop numbers could have significant implications for the future course of the conflict.
Tank Battle in Yelyzavetivka: A video from Colonelcassad purports to show a tank battle in Yelyzavetivka, with a Russian tank column engaging two Ukrainian tanks, resulting in the destruction of one Ukrainian tank and the retreat of the other. This indicates ongoing armored engagements in the area.
Internal Russian Disagreements: Reports of disagreements among Russian propagandists regarding the situation in the Kursk region suggest potential internal tensions and conflicting narratives within Russian media.
Russian Drone Training: The Russian Ministry of Defense released a video showcasing a field school for UAV operators, highlighting efforts to improve drone capabilities and adapt to battlefield conditions. The emphasis on 3D printing for drone modifications suggests an attempt to innovate and overcome supply chain challenges.

Updated Situation:

The military situation in Ukraine remains highly volatile, with intense fighting continuing in multiple regions.

Donetsk Region: Russian forces continue to press their advantage in the Donetsk region, particularly around Kurakhove and Pokrovsk. The reported tank battle in Yelyzavetivka suggests ongoing armored engagements in this area. Ukrainian forces are attempting to hold their positions and inflict losses on the advancing Russian troops.
Kursk Region: The situation in the Kursk region remains tense, with a new Ukrainian offensive underway. While Russian forces claim to have repelled a Ukrainian counterattack near Berdin, the conflicting reports and internal disagreements among Russian sources suggest uncertainty about the true state of affairs. Ukrainian forces are utilizing drones and artillery effectively, but also reportedly suffering losses.
Kharkiv Region: Ukrainian artillery units are actively engaging Russian forces in the Vovchansk direction, inflicting significant damage and casualties. The use of drones for reconnaissance and targeting is proving effective.
Drone Warfare: Drone warfare continues to be a dominant feature of the conflict, with both sides utilizing drones for reconnaissance, targeting, and attacks. The Russian emphasis on training UAV operators and modifying drones with 3D-printed parts indicates an attempt to enhance their drone capabilities. Ukrainian forces are also effectively employing drones, particularly in conjunction with artillery strikes.
Information Warfare: The conflicting narratives and internal disagreements among Russian sources highlight the ongoing information warfare aspect of the conflict. Both sides are attempting to shape public perception and maintain morale through their respective media outlets.
Environmental Concerns: The report of oil spills from sunken tankers in the Black Sea, reaching the coasts of Crimea and causing the deaths of dolphins, adds an environmental dimension to the conflict. This could lead to increased international pressure and scrutiny.

Strategic Implications:

The increased drone activity in Sumy Oblast suggests a potential widening of the conflict in this area.
The reported Ukrainian artillery successes in the Vovchansk direction demonstrate the continued effectiveness of Ukrainian forces in utilizing combined arms tactics.
The Russian counterattack near Berdin and the ongoing fighting in the Kursk region highlight the intensity of the conflict along the border areas.
The dispute over Ukrainian troop numbers raises questions about Ukraine's ability to sustain a prolonged war of attrition.
The video of the tank battle in Yelyzavetivka underscores the continued importance of armored warfare in the conflict.
The internal disagreements among Russian propagandists could indicate underlying tensions or uncertainties within the Russian leadership.
The Russian emphasis on drone training and modification suggests an attempt to adapt to the evolving nature of the conflict and overcome challenges posed by Ukrainian defenses.
The environmental damage caused by the oil spills could lead to increased international condemnation and pressure on Russia.

Recommendations:

Monitor Sumy Oblast: Closely monitor the situation in Sumy Oblast for any signs of further escalation or Russian incursions. Deploy additional reconnaissance assets to the area to detect and track enemy movements.
Sustain Artillery Pressure: Continue to utilize artillery effectively in the Vovchansk direction and other areas to disrupt Russian operations and inflict casualties. Maintain effective coordination between drone reconnaissance and artillery units.
Exploit Russian Internal Disagreements: Capitalize on any internal disagreements or conflicting narratives within Russian media to sow confusion and undermine morale among Russian forces and the public.
Address Troop Mobilization Challenges: Take steps to address any shortcomings in troop mobilization efforts to ensure sufficient manpower for sustained operations.
Enhance Counter-Tank Capabilities: Deploy additional anti-tank weapons and units to areas where armored engagements are likely, such as Yelyzavetivka and other points along the front lines.
Continue Drone Warfare Development: Invest further in the development and deployment of advanced drone systems for reconnaissance, targeting, and attack missions. Focus on countering Russian drone capabilities and maintaining a technological edge.
Mitigate Environmental Damage: Take steps to address the environmental damage caused by the oil spills in the Black Sea. Seek international assistance in cleanup efforts and highlight the ecological consequences of the conflict.
Maintain Information Dominance: Counter Russian disinformation and propaganda efforts by providing accurate and timely information to the public. Highlight Ukrainian successes and Russian losses to maintain morale and international support.
Strengthen International Partnerships: Continue to engage with international partners to secure additional military and financial assistance. Emphasize the need for advanced weapons systems, including long-range missiles, air defense systems, and counter-drone technology.
Adapt and Innovate: Continuously adapt tactics and strategies based on the evolving nature of the conflict. Encourage innovation and the development of new technologies to counter emerging threats and maintain a competitive advantage.