Situation Report

Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine

As of January 5, 2025, 09:33 UTC

Strategic Overview

The military situation in Ukraine remains highly volatile, with intense fighting concentrated in the Donetsk and Kursk regions. Russian forces have made significant gains in Donetsk, capturing Kurakhove and making advances towards Pokrovsk and its strategic highway. Drone warfare continues to be a dominant feature, with both sides utilizing drones for reconnaissance, targeting, and attacks. The use of drones has expanded to include attacks on Russian territory, with multiple drones destroyed over various regions, including a record number destroyed over multiple oblasts for a single night and morning. Ukrainian forces are reportedly conducting a new offensive thrust in the Kursk region, resulting in intense fighting and increased use of drones by both sides. Russian forces are also reporting advances in multiple directions, including the Luhansk and Vremivka directions. Ukrainian forces report they have successfully pushed Russian forces out of the southern part of Novoielizavetivka.

A new US military aid package for Ukraine is expected to be announced soon, potentially bolstering Ukrainian defenses. However, concerns are rising in Kyiv about a potential shift in US policy under a possible Trump administration, with a representative, Keith Kellogg, expected to visit.

The situation is further complicated by reports of increased Russian naval presence in the Mediterranean and ongoing air alerts in various regions of Ukraine.

Key Developments

Intensified Ground Operations and Russian Advances

• Donetsk Region:
  • Kurakhove: Russian forces have fully captured Kurakhove, with assault groups raising the Russian flag on the western outskirts. A video from "Mash na Donbasse" confirms this, showing the flag being raised by troops from the 5th Motorized Rifle Brigade and "Grachi" special forces. Drone footage indicates heavy fighting preceded the city's fall, with Ukrainian forces reportedly withdrawing. Russian forces are clearing the western industrial zone. Pro-Russian sources claim Ukrainian forces are attempting to hold positions at the sewage treatment facilities on the city's northwest outskirts. The "People's Militia of the DPR" released a video showing the destruction of a Ukrainian firing point on Kurakhovo's western outskirts by a 152-mm Msta-B howitzer.
  • Pokrovsk: Russian forces continue their advance towards Pokrovsk, with Ukrainian forces reportedly attempting to push them back. The liberation of Vozdvyzhenka brings Russian forces closer to the strategic Pokrovsk-Konstantinovka highway. A counterattack on Vozdvyzhenka was repelled. Russian forces are intensifying attacks on the highway, and drone operators from the "Center" group are actively targeting Ukrainian forces in the Pokrovsk direction. Video evidence confirms ongoing engagements, with soldiers from the 68th tank regiment advancing and capturing enemy positions.
  • Other Areas:
    • Russian forces initiated assaults on Solone, Novovasylivka, and Novoelizavetivka.
    • Street fighting continues in Toretsk, with Russian forces capturing two objects on the outskirts of the "Central" mine spoil heap. Clashes are ongoing near multiple settlements, and Russian forces are advancing behind New York.
    • Ukrainian forces report they have successfully pushed Russian forces out of the southern part of Novoielizavetivka.
    • Operators of FPV drones from the 20th Motorized Rifle Division destroyed a camouflaged communications repeater.
    • Russian forces report advancing towards Shevchenko.
    • Several groups of Ukrainian soldiers were ambushed near Velyka Novosilka, with casualties and four soldiers captured.
    • Ukrainian forces reportedly destroyed a Russian ammunition depot in Shevchenko near Kurakhove.
• Kursk Region:
  • Intense Fighting: Fighting has intensified, particularly near Leonidovo, with reports of Ukrainian drone and HIMARS strikes. Russian forces are reportedly pressing Ukrainian forces on all fronts. "Dnevnik Desantnika" reports a Ukrainian offensive in the Bolshoe Soldatskoe area, using demining trawls, tanks, and other armored vehicles, supported by strong electronic warfare systems. "Operatsiya Z: Voenkory Russkoy Vesny" reports similar activity near Berdin. "Arkhangel Spetsnaza Z" reports a Ukrainian offensive from Martynovka to Pushkarnoe. Ukrainian forces are reportedly using a large number of armored vehicles and powerful electronic warfare systems. Russian forces used IMR engineering vehicles to clear roads for an offensive operation. Ukrainian forces attacked from Martynovka towards Pushkarnoe with 2 tanks and 2 AFVs, while also initiating an offensive from Sudzha towards Bolshoe Soldatskoe. Russian forces, specifically BARS units, are engaging the enemy.
  • Russian Advances: Russian forces report advancing towards Cherkasskoye Porechnoye. The Russian Army is conducting a powerful offensive, storming Kruglenkoye and advancing towards Sudzha, Martynovka, and Cherkasskaya Konopelka. They made advances in the northern Sudzha district and near Cherkasskaya Konopelka. South of Kruhlenky, they advanced towards Viktorivka and Leonidove.
  • Active Combat Near Sudzha: Russian forces are attacking towards Viktorivka.
  • Casualties: Ukrainian forces repelled 30 Russian attacks and reported significant Russian losses.
  • North Korean Involvement: Operators of drones from the 95th Air Assault Brigade repelled an attack by North Koreans.
  • Disinformation: Ukrainian forces report that Syrsky arrived to award Ukrainian soldiers. Russian forces claim this is disinformation and that Ukrainian forces are suffering heavy losses.
  • Alleged Command Post Strike: Video shows the aftermath of a missile strike on a cultural center in Ivanovsky, which allegedly housed a command post of the 810th Marine Brigade.
  • Drone Warfare: Ukrainian forces conducted a drone operation targeting a Russian T-90 tank and an ammunition depot.
• Luhansk Region:
  • The Russian Ministry of Defense reports that Russian forces have liberated Nadia.
• Vremivka Direction:
  • Russian forces captured Storozheve, forming a new "pocket" near Velyka Novosilka, and liberated Uspenovka and Novyi Komar. Clashes are ongoing near multiple settlements, and Russian forces are advancing towards Velyka Novosilka.

Drone Warfare and Aerial Attacks

• Extensive Drone Activity: Drone warfare remains a dominant feature of the conflict.
  • Ukrainian Drone Strikes: Ukrainian drone units report successful strikes on Russian armored vehicles, a Starlink terminal, and a command post near the Toretsk mine. They also claim to be able to strike targets up to 2,000 km away. Ukrainian forces used drones to destroy three Russian field howitzers near Volchansk. Ukrainian forces used drones to destroy a Russian communication tower and a supply depot in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. Ukrainian forces used drones to target Russian positions in the Kurakhove direction. Ukrainian forces used FPV drones to destroy a Ukrainian T-64BV tank near Kupyansk. Ukrainian forces used FPV drones to destroy a German Leopard 1 tank. Ukrainian forces used FPV drones to shoot down an enemy UAV. Ukrainian forces used drones to record the bodies of North Korean and Russian troops in Kursk Oblast. A Ukrainian Magura V5 naval drone reportedly shot down a Russian Mi-8 helicopter near Cape Tarkhankut in Crimea, using an R-73 "SeeDragon" missile. Another Mi-8 was reportedly damaged but able to reach its base. Ukrainian forces repelled a Russian assault using drones in the Siversk direction.
  • Russian Drone Strikes: Russian sources report using drones to eliminate a Ukrainian special forces group near Kupyansk, destroy a Ukrainian armored vehicle in a wooded area, and target the positions of the 33rd Mechanized Brigade in the Kurakhovo direction. They also report using FPV drones to target Ukrainian positions in the Kurakhove direction. Operators of drones from the 20th Motorized Rifle Division destroyed a camouflaged communications repeater. A Ukrainian drone "Vampir" remotely mined Russian logistics routes near Zoria, Donetsk Oblast.
  • Drone Attacks on Russia: Over the past day, 372 drones of various modifications were used by Russian forces to attack Mariivka, Kamianske, Huliaipole, Shcherbaky, Novoandriivka, Novodanylivka, Mala Tokmachka, Charivne, and Novodarivka. Ten drones were destroyed over the Leningrad, Pskov, Kursk, and Voronezh regions of Russia. This marks a record number of drones destroyed over multiple oblasts for a single night and morning. Four drones were destroyed over the Bryansk region of Russia. Five enemy drones were shot down over the Smolensk region of Russia, with confirmed reports suggesting the target may have been the "Avangard" missile manufacturing facility. St. Petersburg is under a drone attack, with reports of at least one drone being shot down. Pulkovo Airport has implemented "Plan 'Carpet'" twice today, temporarily halting flights due to an unidentified aerial object. There are reports that these drones were engaged using a combination of air defense systems, electronic warfare (EW) systems, and small arms fire. Multiple drones were destroyed over Voronezh, Bryansk, Rostov, Kaluga, and Kursk Oblasts. Reports of a drone being rammed by a Russian drone over Pokrovsk. A Ukrainian drone attack on Bryansk Oblast was reportedly repelled by Russian air defense forces. Over 10 drones were reportedly detected and destroyed in the suburbs of Voronezh. 13 Ukrainian drones were destroyed overnight by air defense systems over Russian territory. 5 were shot down over Bryansk Oblast, 3 over Kursk Oblast, 2 each over Belgorod and Tula Oblasts, and 1 over Astrakhan Oblast. Debris from downed drones caused damage to railway infrastructure in the Voronezh region. Reports of drone attacks on an oil depot in Smolensk Oblast, with the local governor claiming "debris" fell. Reports of loud explosions in Sevastopol overnight, with claims of drone attacks. Reports that a drone was shot down over a training ground in North Ossetia, causing the closure of Vladikavkaz airport. 17 drones were reportedly shot down over Crimea overnight, with 4 near Sevastopol. Two unmanned boats were also reportedly destroyed near the coast of Sevastopol. Reports of a massive drone attack on Russian regions, with 68 drones shot down overnight. Reports that a Ukrainian drone was shot down over Bryansk Oblast, with no casualties or damage reported.
  • New Drone Threats: Multiple new groups of Russian drones are entering Ukrainian airspace, particularly in Sumy and Kharkiv Oblasts. Specific updates include drones moving across various oblasts with varied courses. Ukrainian air defenses are actively engaging these threats.
  • Drone Warfare Analysis: A video analysis reveals the use of modified consumer drones by Ukrainian forces for reconnaissance and targeted attacks. Reports indicate the use of "Baba Yaga" drones to launch attacks and deliver RPG rounds.
  • Journalist Casualties: Several journalists were injured or killed in drone attacks, with reports of targeting to silence the press.
  • FPV Drone Operators from the 425 ОШБ "Скала" report that they are hunting and destroying enemy infantry and equipment in Donetsk Oblast. A video message shows FPV drone strikes on Russian personnel and equipment.
• Air Defense Engagements: Ukrainian air defenses are actively countering hostile drones and guided bombs. Overnight, four enemy UAVs were shot down in the Kryvyi Rih and Nikopol regions.
• Guided Bomb Attacks: Russian tactical aviation continues to launch guided aerial bombs, particularly targeting the Sumy and Chernihiv regions. Semenivka in Chernihiv Oblast suffered from airstrikes, resulting in at least nine injuries, including two children, and damage to civilian infrastructure.
• Air Superiority: A video showcasing a Russian Su-35S fighter jet intercepting a Ukrainian Su-25 highlights Russia's efforts to maintain air superiority.
• Ukrainian Air Force Activity: Ukrainian Air Force reports an enemy drone approaching Lubny (Poltava Oblast) from the northeast. Ukrainian air defenses are preparing for a possible Russian Tu-95MS strategic bomber attack tonight.

Naval Activity

• Black Sea: One Russian missile carrier is present, but without "Kalibr" missiles on board.
• Azov Sea: No Russian warships are present.
• Mediterranean Sea: Seven Russian warships are present, including two "Kalibr" missile carriers with a total of 22 missiles.
• Kerch Strait: Seven Russian ships passed through the Kerch Strait towards the Black Sea, all continuing towards the Bosphorus. One ship passed towards the Azov Sea, not originating from the Bosphorus.

Geopolitical Developments

• Airport Restrictions: Temporary flight restrictions were imposed at several Russian airports due to drone threats. Restrictions have now been lifted.
• Belarusian Political Prisoner: The Brest Regional Court sentenced the mother of a political prisoner to two years of restricted freedom for assisting extremist activities.
• US Politics: The US will not be able to provide all military aid to Ukraine before January 20th. Some deliveries may continue after that date. The US will announce a new military aid package for Ukraine in the coming days. Tim Cook, CEO of Apple, is reportedly planning to donate $1 million to Donald Trump's inauguration.
• Chinese Military Drone Training: The Chinese military is reportedly studying the use of drones in the Ukraine conflict.
• Turkish Naval Developments: Turkey has commenced the construction of an aircraft carrier, an air defense destroyer, and a submarine.
• Potential Meeting Between Scholz and Putin: Reports suggest that German Chancellor Scholz may meet with Russian President Putin before February 23. A German Bundestag member opposes this, believing it would be detrimental to Ukraine.
• Potential Meeting Between Trump and Putin: Reports indicate a possible meeting between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin in March.
• US Secretary of State's Assessment: US Secretary of State Blinken believes that the front line in Ukraine is unlikely to change significantly in the near future and that any ceasefire would likely lead to Russia rearming and attacking again.
• Ukraine-Israel Relations: The Biden administration intends to sell $8 billion worth of weapons to Israel.

Other Significant Developments

• Casualty Reports: Ukrainian sources report significant Russian casualties, with an estimated 1,730 personnel lost in the past day, along with the destruction of numerous military equipment.
• Ukrainian Military Reports: The Ukrainian General Staff reports 179 combat clashes over the past day, with Russian forces actively using aviation and artillery in the Chernihiv and Sumy regions. They also report striking another oil depot of the Russian occupiers, "Yartsevskaya" in the Smolensk region. 1358 people have been released as a result of 11 prisoner exchanges.
• Infrastructure Damage: Several infrastructure facilities were damaged in the Zaporizhzhia region. Reports that 12 apartment buildings, 2 educational institutions, and several infrastructure facilities were damaged in Shostka.
• Military Equipment: A British FV101 Scorpion light tank, modified with a 14.5-mm KPVT machine gun and equipped with communication and electronic warfare devices, was observed in service with the 1st Brigade "Bureviy" of the National Guard of Ukraine. The destruction of a Ukrainian 155-mm wheeled self-propelled gun 2S22 "Bogdan" on the chassis of a MAZ-6317 is also a notable event.
• Fundraising for Missing Soldier: A campaign has been launched to locate a soldier named Igor, whose personal belongings were found in a hospital in Belgorod after an evacuation.
• Use of Electric Scooters by Russian Forces: Russian military personnel are increasingly using electric scooters, motorcycles, and ATVs to move quickly along the front line.
• Air Missile Threat: "Dnevnik Desantnika" reports an air missile threat in multiple Russian regions.

Updated Situation and Key Changes

The military situation remains highly dynamic, with significant developments on multiple fronts:

• Russian Advances: Russian forces have made notable gains, particularly in the Donetsk region, capturing Kurakhove and advancing towards Pokrovsk. The capture of Kurakhove is a critical development, solidifying Russian control in the Donetsk region and potentially opening new avenues of advance.
• Ukrainian Counteroffensive in Kursk: Ukrainian forces have reportedly launched a counteroffensive in the Kursk region, leading to intense fighting and increased drone activity. This marks a significant escalation and expansion of the conflict into Russian territory.
• Drone Warfare Intensification: Drone warfare continues to escalate, with both sides employing drones extensively. The increased range and frequency of drone attacks, including those on Russian territory, demonstrate the evolving nature of this aspect of the conflict. Ukrainian drone operators report successful strikes on Russian armored vehicles and a Starlink terminal. The Ukrainian Air Force reported that 61 enemy drones were shot down overnight, with another 42 drones not reaching their targets. Russian sources reported that Ukrainian forces launched 103 drones overnight, with 61 being shot down and 42 not reaching their targets.
• Geopolitical Uncertainty: The potential shift in US policy under a possible Trump administration adds a layer of uncertainty to the conflict's future trajectory. Reports of a potential meeting between Scholz and Putin also raise concerns about possible negotiations that could impact Ukraine's interests.
• Naval Activity: The presence of seven Russian warships in the Mediterranean, including two "Kalibr" missile carriers, indicates a continued Russian naval presence and potential threat in the region.
• Air Attacks and Alerts: The continued use of guided bombs by Russian forces and the declaration of an air alert in the Zaporizhzhia region highlight the ongoing threat to civilian areas and infrastructure.
• Casualty and Equipment Losses: Both sides are reporting significant casualties and equipment losses, underscoring the intensity of the fighting.
• Propaganda and Information Warfare: Both sides continue to engage in propaganda and information warfare, as evidenced by conflicting reports and the use of social media to shape public perception.

The coming days will likely see continued intense fighting, particularly in the Donetsk and Kursk regions, with both sides attempting to gain a strategic advantage. The evolving drone warfare landscape and the potential for further escalation into Russian territory will be key factors to monitor. The geopolitical landscape, particularly concerning US policy and potential negotiations, will also play a crucial role in shaping the conflict's future. The situation remains fluid and subject to rapid changes. The potential for a new northern front, coupled with Russia's advancements in space control capabilities, adds complexity to the already challenging situation. The confirmed use of air support and successful drone operations indicates a sustained Russian effort to gain a strategic advantage. The potential shift in Russian focus towards the Donetsk-Dnipropetrovsk border, if confirmed, could open a new chapter in the conflict, potentially expanding the scope of the war.