Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine

As of January 5, 2025, 09:03 UTC

Strategic Overview

The military situation in Ukraine remains extremely volatile, with Russian forces maintaining offensive pressure on multiple fronts. The Donetsk region continues to be the focal point of intense fighting, with significant Russian gains reported near Pokrovsk, Kurakhove, and Toretsk. The capture of Kurakhove by Russian forces is a critical development, solidifying their control in the Donetsk region and potentially opening up new avenues of advance towards Pokrovsk. Russian forces are intensifying their attacks on the Pokrovsk-Konstantinovka highway.

Drone warfare remains a dominant feature, with Ukrainian forces reportedly launching a significant drone attack on Taganrog and a military airfield, resulting in 24 explosions. Ukrainian sources also report that 61 enemy drones were shot down overnight, with another 42 drones not reaching their targets. Russian sources reported that Ukrainian forces launched 103 drones overnight, with 61 being shot down and 42 not reaching their targets. The use of electric scooters by Russian forces introduces a new tactical element, enhancing their mobility and elusiveness.

Reports from the Kursk and Bryansk regions indicate intensified fighting and increased use of drones by both sides, with a new Ukrainian offensive thrust. Ukrainian forces report they have successfully pushed Russian forces out of the southern part of Novoielizavetivka.

The naval updates confirm the ongoing threat from the Black Sea and highlight a substantial Russian naval presence in the Mediterranean.

A new US military aid package for Ukraine is expected to be announced soon, potentially bolstering Ukrainian defenses. Temporary flight restrictions were imposed at several Russian airports, including Nizhnekamsk, Izhevsk, and Perm, following earlier restrictions in Kazan, due to the perceived threat of drone attacks. These restrictions have now been lifted in Kazan, Nizhnekamsk, Izhevsk, and Perm. An air alert has been declared in the Zaporizhzhia region of Ukraine, with a threat of ballistic missile use from the south reported by the Ukrainian Air Force. The air raid alert in Zaporizhzhia Oblast has been lifted.

The Ukrainian General Staff reports that the 79th Air Assault Brigade has been actively targeting Russian forces in their area of responsibility.

Key Developments

Intensified Ground Operations and Russian Advances

• Donetsk Region:
  • Russian forces have reportedly fully captured Kurakhove, with assault groups raising the Russian flag on the western outskirts of the city. This marks a significant gain for Russian forces in the region. A video from "Mash na Donbasse" reportedly confirms this, showing the Russian flag being raised in the western part of the city by assault troops from the 5th Motorized Rifle Brigade and the "Grachi" special forces unit. The raising of a Russian flag and a skull and crossbones flag by Russian forces in Kurakhovo provides further visual confirmation of the reported capture of the city by Russian troops.
  • Russian troops continue their advance towards Pokrovsk, with reports of Ukrainian forces attempting to push back Russian forces from their positions near the city.
  • The liberation of Vozdvyzhenka near Pokrovsk is a critical development, bringing Russian forces closer to the strategic Pokrovsk-Konstantinovka highway. Ukrainian forces repelled a counterattack on Vozdvyzhenka near Pokrovsk.
  • Russian forces are intensifying their attacks on the Pokrovsk-Konstantinovka highway.
  • Several groups of Ukrainian soldiers were ambushed near Velyka Novosilka in the south of Donetsk, with some casualties and four soldiers captured.
  • Ukrainian forces reportedly destroyed a Russian ammunition depot in Shevchenko near Kurakhove.
  • Ukrainian forces report they have successfully pushed Russian forces out of the southern part of Novoielizavetivka.
  • A video from the "People's Militia of the DPR" depicts the destruction of a Ukrainian firing point on the western outskirts of Kurakhovo by a 152-mm Msta-B howitzer from the 238th Artillery Brigade, in support of the 110th and 5th Brigades.
  • Drone operators from the "Center" group reportedly eliminated a Ukrainian observation post in the Pokrovsk direction.
  • Drone operators from the "Center" group continue to hunt for Ukrainian forces in the Pokrovsk direction.
  • Operators of FPV drones from the 20th Motorized Rifle Division destroyed a camouflaged communications repeater.
  • Ukrainian forces report Russian forces used drones to target positions of the 33rd Mechanized Brigade in the Kurakhove direction.
  • Video shows drone footage from the 9th Brigade of the 51st Guards Combined Arms Army of the Russian Armed Forces engaging an American-made M-113 armored personnel carrier (APC) near Dzerzhinsk.
  • Russian forces, specifically the "Otvazhnye" forces, are initiating assaults on Solone, Novovasylivka, and Novoelizavetivka.
  • Russian forces report advancing towards Shevchenko.
  • Street fighting continues in Toretsk, with Russian forces capturing two objects on the outskirts of the "Central" mine spoil heap. Clashes are ongoing near multiple settlements, and Russian forces are advancing behind New York.
  • Novoelizavetivka: Ukrainian forces, specifically the 153rd Brigade, are using FPV drones to target Russian tanks on the outskirts of Novoelizavetivka, which has recently fallen under Russian control.
• Kursk Region:
  • Fighting has intensified in the Kursk region, particularly near the village of Leonidovo. Russian forces are reportedly pushing Ukrainian forces on all fronts in the region.
  • Ukrainian forces are reportedly attacking in the direction of Berdin-Bolshoe Soldatskoe, with reports indicating that they are using a large amount of armored vehicles and powerful electronic warfare systems to suppress Russian drones.
  • "Dnevnik Desantnika" reports that Ukrainian forces have launched an offensive in the Bolshoe Soldatskoe area of the Kursk region, using demining trawls, tanks, and other armored vehicles, supported by strong electronic warfare systems to disrupt Russian drones.
  • "Operatsiya Z: Voenkory Russkoy Vesny" reports that Ukrainian armored vehicles are transporting large numbers of infantry, attacking Berdin in the Bolshoe Soldatskoe area of the Kursk region, with ongoing small arms fire and Russian artillery actively engaging the enemy. They also mention that Ukrainian forces demined approaches to the settlement and roads in the dark. Ukrainian aviation is reportedly supporting ground troops.
  • "Arkhangel Spetsnaza Z" reports that Ukrainian forces launched an offensive from Martynovka to Pushkarnoe in the Kursk region, using two tanks and two armored fighting vehicles. They also note increased activity near Sudzha, with Ukrainian forces working in small groups and accumulating near the border.
  • Russian forces used IMR engineering vehicles to clear roads for an offensive operation in the Kursk region. Ukrainian forces attacked from Martynovka towards Pushkarnoe with 2 tanks and 2 AFVs, while also initiating an offensive from Sudzha towards Bolshoe Soldatskoe. Russian forces, specifically BARS units, are engaging the enemy.
  • Operators of drones from the 95th Air Assault Brigade repelled an attack by North Koreans in the Kursk region.
  • Operators of the 80th Airborne Assault Brigade destroyed an enemy along with equipment in the Kursk region.
  • Russian forces are reportedly pressing Ukrainian forces on all fronts in the Kursk region.
  • In the Kursk region, Ukrainian forces report that Syrsky arrived to award Ukrainian soldiers. Russian forces report that this is disinformation, and that Ukrainian forces are suffering heavy losses in the region.
  • Video shows the aftermath of a missile strike on a cultural center in Ivanovsky, Kursk region, which allegedly housed a command post of the 810th Marine Brigade.
  • Heavy fighting with reports of Ukrainian drone and HIMARS strikes. Ukrainian forces conducted a drone operation targeting a Russian T-90 tank and an ammunition depot.
  • Ukrainian forces repelled 30 Russian attacks and reported significant Russian losses.
  • Russian forces report advancing towards Cherkasskoye Porechnoye.
  • The Russian Army is conducting a powerful offensive, storming Kruglenkoye and advancing towards Sudzha, Martynovka, and Cherkasskaya Konopelka.
  • Russian forces made advances in the northern Sudzha district and near Cherkasskaya Konopelka.
  • South of Kruhlenky, Russian forces advanced towards Viktorivka. They are also advancing towards Leonidove.
  • Active combat near Sudzha: Russian forces are attacking towards Viktorivka.
• Luhansk Region:
  • The Russian Ministry of Defense reports that Russian forces have liberated Nadia in the Luhansk People's Republic.
• Vremivka Direction:
  • Russian forces captured Storozheve, forming a new "pocket" near Velyka Novosilka, and liberated Uspenovka and Novyi Komar. Clashes are ongoing near multiple settlements, and Russian forces are advancing towards Velyka Novosilka.

Drone Warfare and Aerial Attacks

• Extensive Drone Activity: Drone warfare continues to be a major factor in the conflict, with both sides utilizing drones for reconnaissance, targeting, and attacks.
  • Ukrainian drone units report successful strikes on Russian armored vehicles and a Starlink terminal.
  • Over the past day, 372 drones of various modifications were used by Russian forces to attack Mariivka, Kamianske, Huliaipole, Shcherbaky, Novoandriivka, Novodanylivka, Mala Tokmachka, Charivne, and Novodarivka.
  • Ten drones were destroyed over the Leningrad, Pskov, Kursk, and Voronezh regions of Russia. This marks a record number of drones destroyed over multiple oblasts for a single night and morning.
  • Four drones were destroyed over the Bryansk region of Russia.
  • Five enemy drones were shot down over the Smolensk region of Russia, with confirmed reports suggesting the target may have been the "Avangard" missile manufacturing facility.
  • St. Petersburg is under a drone attack, with reports of at least one drone being shot down. Pulkovo Airport has implemented "Plan 'Carpet'" twice today, temporarily halting flights due to an unidentified aerial object.
  • There are reports that these drones were engaged using a combination of air defense systems, electronic warfare (EW) systems, and small arms fire.
  • The head of the Zaporizhzhia Regional Military Administration reported that a daily moment of silence is being observed at 9:00 AM across the Zaporizhzhia region to honor those who have died in the war.
  • The Ukrainian Air Force reported that 61 enemy drones were shot down overnight, with another 42 drones not reaching their targets.
  • Russian sources reported that Ukrainian forces launched 103 drones overnight, with 61 being shot down and 42 not reaching their targets.
  • Ukrainian sources reported that a Russian drone control center near Velyka Novosilka was destroyed by drone operators.
  • Ukrainian sources reported that Ukrainian drones can strike targets up to 2,000 km away.
  • Ukrainian sources reported that Ukrainian forces used drones to destroy a Russian command post near the Toretsk mine.
  • Ukrainian sources reported that Ukrainian forces used drones to destroy three Russian field howitzers near Volchansk.
  • Ukrainian sources reported that Ukrainian forces used drones to destroy a Russian communication tower and a supply depot in Zaporizhzhia Oblast.
  • Ukrainian sources reported that Ukrainian forces used drones to target Russian positions in the Kurakhove direction.
  • Ukrainian sources reported that Ukrainian forces used FPV drones to destroy a Ukrainian T-64BV tank near Kupyansk.
  • Ukrainian sources reported that Ukrainian forces used FPV drones to destroy a German Leopard 1 tank.
  • Ukrainian sources reported that Ukrainian forces used FPV drones to shoot down an enemy UAV.
  • Ukrainian sources reported that Ukrainian forces used drones to destroy three Russian field howitzers near Volchansk.
  • Ukrainian sources reported that Ukrainian forces used drones to record the bodies of North Korean and Russian troops in Kursk Oblast.
  • Russian sources reported that Russian forces used drones to eliminate a Ukrainian special forces group near Kupyansk.
  • Russian sources reported that Russian forces used drones to destroy a Ukrainian armored vehicle in a wooded area.
  • Russian sources reported that Russian forces used FPV drones to destroy a Ukrainian armored vehicle in a forest.
  • Ukrainian sources reported that Ukrainian forces used a drone to attack a Russian position near a road, resulting in a fire.
  • Ukrainian sources reported that Ukrainian forces used an FPV drone to destroy a Ukrainian T-64BV tank near Kupyansk.
  • Ukrainian sources reported that Ukrainian forces repelled a powerful Russian assault in the Kupyansk direction, destroying 5 armored vehicles.
  • Russian sources reported that Russian forces used drones to target the positions of the 33rd Mechanized Brigade in the Kurakhovo direction.
  • Russian sources reported that Russian forces used FPV drones to target Ukrainian positions in the Kurakhove direction.
  • Ukrainian sources reported that a Ukrainian drone "Vampir" of the "Hydra" unit of the 137th Separate Marine Battalion remotely mined Russian logistics routes near Zoria, Donetsk Oblast.
  • Ukrainian sources reported that Ukrainian forces used drones to record the bodies of North Korean and Russian troops in Kursk Oblast.
  • Russian sources reported that up to 10 drones and several FPV drones were involved in a recent attack.
  • Russian sources reported that Ukrainian air defense systems engaged multiple Russian drones near Nechaiane, Ochakiv, and Velyka Korenykha.
  • Russian sources reported that Russian drones were launched from Crimea.
  • Russian sources reported that up to 10 drones were reported over Ochakiv, with some shot down. One drone was reported near Parutino.
  • Russian sources reported that new enemy drone attacks were reported in Ochakiv from the Black Sea.
  • Russian sources reported that the Sever Group of Forces’ FPV drone team destroyed a camouflaged position of an AFU mortar in Sumy region.
  • Russian sources reported that operators of the FPV group "Sever" hit three Ukrainian Armed Forces dugouts with three kamikaze drones in the Kharkiv direction.
  • "Tseplienko_Ukraine" reports that 61 Ukrainian drones attacked Russian Taganrog and Millerovo airfield tonight. There is information about a UAV hit on a military airfield in Taganrog. Multiple videos from different sources are provided to corroborate the claim.
  • "Shef Hayabusa" reports that while there was activity with a car on the right bank of the Dnipro River near Kherson, there was also activity in Taganrog, with reports of 24 explosions caused by unknown drones. Several videos are provided as evidence.
  • A Ukrainian Magura V5 naval drone reportedly shot down a Russian Mi-8 helicopter near Cape Tarkhankut in Crimea, using an R-73 "SeeDragon" missile. Another Mi-8 was reportedly damaged but able to reach its base.
  • Multiple drones were destroyed over Voronezh, Bryansk, Rostov, Kaluga, and Kursk Oblasts.
  • Reports of a drone being rammed by a Russian drone over Pokrovsk.
  • A Ukrainian drone attack on Bryansk Oblast was reportedly repelled by Russian air defense forces.
  • Over 10 drones were reportedly detected and destroyed in the suburbs of Voronezh.
  • 13 Ukrainian drones were destroyed overnight by air defense systems over Russian territory. 5 were shot down over Bryansk Oblast, 3 over Kursk Oblast, 2 each over Belgorod and Tula Oblasts, and 1 over Astrakhan Oblast.
  • Ukrainian forces report shooting down two more Russian drones over the Belgorod region.
  • A Ukrainian drone attack on Bryansk Oblast was reportedly repelled by Russian air defense forces.
  • Debris from downed drones caused damage to railway infrastructure in the Voronezh region.
  • Ukrainian air defenses reportedly shot down a Ukrainian missile over Kursk Oblast.
  • Reports of drone attacks on an oil depot in Smolensk Oblast, with the local governor claiming "debris" fell.
  • Reports of drone attacks on an oil depot in Smolensk Oblast, with the local governor claiming "debris" fell.
  • Reports of loud explosions in Sevastopol overnight, with claims of drone attacks.
  • Reports that a drone was shot down over a training ground in North Ossetia, causing the closure of Vladikavkaz airport.
  • 17 drones were reportedly shot down over Crimea overnight, with 4 near Sevastopol. Two unmanned boats were also reportedly destroyed near the coast of Sevastopol.
  • Reports that a drone was shot down over a training ground in North Ossetia, causing the closure of Vladikavkaz airport.
  • Reports of a massive drone attack on Russian regions, with 68 drones shot down overnight.
  • Reports that a drone was shot down over a training ground in North Ossetia, causing the closure of Vladikavkaz airport.
  • Reports of a massive drone attack on Russian regions, with 68 drones shot down overnight.
  • Reports of a massive drone attack on Russian regions, with 68 drones shot down overnight.
  • Reports of a massive drone attack on Russian regions, with 68 drones shot down overnight.
  • Reports that a Ukrainian drone was shot down over Bryansk Oblast, with no casualties or damage reported.
  • Reports of a massive drone attack on Russian regions, with 68 drones shot down overnight.
  • New drone threats are reported, with multiple new groups of Russian drones entering Ukrainian airspace, particularly in Sumy and Kharkiv Oblasts. Specific updates include:
    • Drones on the south of Sumy Oblast, with varied courses (west, southwest, southeast).
    • Drones in the center of Chernihiv Oblast, with varied courses (west, southwest, northwest).
    • Drones on the north of Kyiv Oblast, course west.
    • Drones in the east of Zhytomyr Oblast, course west/southwest.
    • Drones on the southeast of Poltava Oblast, course west/southwest.
    • Drones in Kharkiv Oblast, course west/southwest/northwest/south.
    • Drones in the east of Kharkiv Oblast, course west.
    • Drones in the north of Dnipropetrovsk and Donetsk Oblasts, course south/southwest.
    • A drone approaching Zhytomyr from the northeast.
    • A drone approaching Lubny (Poltava Oblast) from the northeast.
    • A drone approaching Cherkasy from the northeast.
    • A drone approaching Kremenchuk (Poltava Oblast) from the northeast.
    • Enemy drones approaching Chernihiv and Brovary.
    • A drone over Poltava.
    • A drone approaching Myrhorod (Poltava Oblast) from the east.
    • Nikolaevskiy Vanyok reports on multiple drone movements, including 11 drones moving from the west of Kharkiv Oblast to Dnipropetrovsk, 4 drones near Poltava heading southwest, 1 drone near Oleksandriia heading southwest, 4 drones moving from Sumy Oblast to Kharkiv, 4 new drones in the Sumy district heading towards Chernihiv Oblast, 3 drones at the intersection of Kyiv and Zhytomyr Oblasts heading west, 2 drones leaving Chernihiv Oblast for Belarus, 1 drone moving from Chernihiv Oblast to the north of Kyiv, 2 drones over Nizhyn, 1 drone from Poltava Oblast heading towards Cherkasy, 2 new drones north of Izium heading west, 1 drone east of Izium heading towards Sloviansk, and 1 new drone heading towards or through Sumy.
  • Ukrainian air defenses are actively engaging these threats, with reports of drones over Poltava and Myrhorod. Reports confirm air defenses are active over Poltava.
  • A video analysis reveals the use of modified consumer drones by Ukrainian forces for reconnaissance and targeted attacks, emphasizing the growing threat of drone warfare. Reports indicate the use of "Baba Yaga" drones to launch attacks. A captured Russian soldier stated his unit was used as cannon fodder and left behind. The use of "Baba Yaga" drones to deliver RPG rounds is confirmed, highlighting the evolving tactics in drone warfare.
  • Several journalists were injured or killed in drone attacks, with reports of targeting to silence the press. A survivor reported on a large-scale drone attack in Horlivka. The head of the DPR, Pushilin, called the killing of Izvestia journalist Alexander Martemyanov during a Ukrainian drone attack a "vile murder". Another survivor gave an account of journalist "Sasha" filming his last report on shelling before being killed in a drone strike. The drone that attacked the journalists' car was launched using a "Baba-Yaga," according to a surviving journalist. Maria Zakharova, a Russian official, stated that those responsible for the attacks on Russian journalists would be punished and that the killings are a result of international organizations ignoring the crimes of the Kyiv regime.
  • FPV-засідка ― розвідники ліквідували начальника штабу батальйону окупантів “шторм-осєтія”. 29 грудня 2024 року на трасі Василівка-Токмак воїни розрахунку  FPV підрозділу активних дій ГУР МО України “Кракен” ліквідували  начальника штабу батальйону “шторм.осєтія” (сєрґєя “кама” мєльнікова та його водія.
  • Video evidence of a Russian FPV drone attacking a building with a modified munition.
  • Drone operators from the "Center" group reportedly eliminated a Ukrainian observation post in the Pokrovsk direction.
  • Drone operators from the "Center" group continue to hunt for Ukrainian forces in the Pokrovsk direction.
  • Drone operators from the 425 ОШБ "Скала" report that they are hunting and destroying enemy infantry and equipment in Donetsk Oblast. A video message shows FPV drone strikes on Russian personnel and equipment. The video shows multiple instances of strikes by first-person view (FPV) drones. These strikes are targeted against personnel, a wheeled military vehicle, and buildings. Several clips show individuals being targeted, with varying outcomes. Some are hit and appear incapacitated (labeled as "300" - wounded), while others are directly killed. The audio uses the Russian/Ukrainian military codes "300" for wounded and "200" for killed in action. The strikes occur in various environments – residential areas, open fields, and wooded areas. The video also shows a concentration of Russian casualties near a tree line and in trenches. One of the more notable sequences shows a soldier feigning death, which prompts a secondary attack. The video also reveals the effective employment of drone strikes against enemy installations.
  • Drone operators from the 20th Motorized Rifle Division destroyed a camouflaged communications repeater.
  • Video shows a drone observation of Russian forces ambushing and engaging enemy personnel.
  • FPV drones of the "Center" group continue to hunt for the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the Pokrovsk direction.
  • Remote mining by Ukrainian "Vampir" drone near Zoria.
  • Drone strikes on assault columns near Kurakhove.
  • Video evidence of military engagement near Kurakhove.
  • Russian forces used FPV drones to target Ukrainian positions in the Kurakhove direction.
  • Ukrainian forces report Russian forces used drones to target positions of the 33rd Mechanized Brigade in the Kurakhove direction.
  • Operators of FPV drones from the 20th Motorized Rifle Division destroyed a camouflaged communications repeater.
  • Ukrainian drone "Vampir" remotely mined Russian logistics routes near Zoria.
  • Ukrainian forces repelled a Russian assault using drones in the Siversk direction.
  • Video evidence confirms ongoing engagements, with soldiers from the 68th tank regiment advancing and capturing enemy positions.
  • Drone strikes remain a significant feature of the fighting near Kurakhove.
  • Video footage shows the destruction of a Starlink station by the "Southern Front" group.
  • Russian forces report that operators of drones from the 20th Motorized Rifle Division of the 8th Guards Army discovered and destroyed a disguised Ukrainian communications repeater.
  • Russian forces report that operators of drones from the 110th Brigade spotted moving Ukrainian soldiers and dropped a munition, killing one.
  • Operators of drones from the 20th Motorized Rifle Division of the 8th Guards Army detected and destroyed a camouflaged communications repeater of the Ukrainian Armed Forces.
  • Operators of FPV drones from the 20th Motorized Rifle Division of the 8th Guards Army detected and destroyed a camouflaged communications repeater of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in a forest plantation, ensuring the security of Russian positions from enemy drone strikes.
  • Operators of drones from the 110th Brigade, operating in the Kurakhove direction, spotted moving Ukrainian soldiers and dropped a munition, killing one.
  • Aerial reconnaissance from the "Mad Dogs" brigade detected a night raid by Ukrainian forces from the 32nd Brigade. A Russian FPV drone operator, "Dolgiy," reportedly destroyed four Ukrainian soldiers and wounded two during this raid in the Pokrovsk direction.
  • Operators of ударных дронов 9 бригады 51 гвардейской общевойсковой армии ВС РФ добили БТР американского производства М-113, перед этим повреждённый бойцами 1 Славянской бригады, что позволило продолжить успешное продвижение в районе Дзержинска.
  • Video shows drone footage from the 9th Brigade of the 51st Guards Combined Arms Army of the Russian Armed Forces engaging an American-made M-113 armored personnel carrier (APC) near Dzerzhinsk. The APC was previously damaged by the 1st Slavic Brigade, and the drone strike allowed for continued advances in the area.
  • Ukrainian forces, specifically the 1st Assault Battalion of the 25th Airborne Brigade, report repelling a Russian attack on Lysivka. The Ukrainian forces claim to have inflicted significant losses on the attacking force, forcing survivors to commit suicide. Video evidence of the aftermath of the attack is presented.
  • Operators of drones from the 35th Army of the "Vostok" group destroyed a concentration of Ukrainian manpower in the Polozhsk direction. A Russian FPV drone strike resulted in five casualties.
  • Ukrainian forces, specifically the 153rd Brigade, are using FPV drones to target Russian tanks on the outskirts of Novoelizavetivka, which has recently fallen under Russian control. One tank was reportedly disabled, with two crew members evacuating. This highlights the continued use of drones to harass and inflict damage on Russian forces even in areas they control.
  • Debris from downed drones caused damage to railway infrastructure in the Voronezh region.
  • Reports of drone attacks on an oil depot in Smolensk Oblast, with the local governor claiming "debris" fell.
  • Reports of loud explosions in Sevastopol overnight, with claims of drone attacks.
  • Reports that a drone was shot down over a training ground in North Ossetia, causing the closure of Vladikavkaz airport.
  • 17 drones were reportedly shot down over Crimea overnight, with 4 near Sevastopol. Two unmanned boats were also reportedly destroyed near the coast of Sevastopol.
• Air Defense Engagements: Ukrainian air defenses are actively countering hostile drones and guided bombs. Overnight, four enemy UAVs were shot down in the Kryvyi Rih and Nikopol regions.
• Guided Bomb Attacks: Russian tactical aviation continues to launch guided aerial bombs, particularly targeting the Sumy and Chernihiv regions. The city of Semenivka in Chernihiv Oblast suffered from airstrikes, resulting in at least seven injuries and damage to civilian infrastructure, including an administrative building, a hospital, a cafe, residential buildings, and civilian vehicles. The number of wounded has risen to nine, including two children.
  • Ukrainian Air Force reports activity of enemy tactical aviation in the northeast, with a threat of the use of air-launched weapons. Guided aerial bombs were reportedly used in Sumy region.
  • The Ukrainian Air Force reports repeated launches of guided aerial bombs on Sumy Oblast by Russian tactical aviation.
  • Russian forces launched four guided aerial bombs on Semenivka, Chernihiv Oblast, targeting the city center and a residential area.
  • Repeated launches of guided aerial bombs were reported on Sumy and Donetsk Oblasts.
  • Launches of guided aerial bombs were reported on the north of Kharkiv Oblast.
• Air Superiority:
  • A video showcasing a Russian Su-35S fighter jet intercepting a Ukrainian Su-25 highlights Russia's efforts to maintain air superiority. The Su-35S is depicted using air-to-air missiles, demonstrating Russia's long-range precision engagement capabilities.
• Ukrainian Air Force Activity:
  • Ukrainian Air Force reports an enemy drone approaching Lubny (Poltava Oblast) from the northeast.
  • Ukrainian air defenses are preparing for a possible Russian Tu-95MS strategic bomber attack tonight.

Naval Activity

• Black Sea: One Russian missile carrier is present, but without "Kalibr" missiles on board.
• Azov Sea: No Russian warships are present.
• Mediterranean Sea: Seven Russian warships are present, including two "Kalibr" missile carriers with a total of 22 missiles.
• Kerch Strait: Seven Russian ships passed through the Kerch Strait towards the Black Sea, all continuing towards the Bosphorus. One ship passed towards the Azov Sea, not originating from the Bosphorus.

Geopolitical Developments

• Airport Restrictions: Temporary flight restrictions were imposed at Kazan airport due to a drone threat. Restrictions were also introduced at the airports of Nizhnekamsk, Izhevsk, and Perm, according to Rosaviatsia. Restrictions have now been lifted in Kazan, Nizhnekamsk, Izhevsk, and Perm.
• Belarusian Political Prisoner: The Brest Regional Court sentenced the mother of a political prisoner to two years of restricted freedom for assisting extremist activities by giving an interview to an opposition TV channel in 2021.
• US Politics:
  • The US will not be able to provide all military aid to Ukraine before January 20th. Some deliveries may continue after that date.
  • The US will announce a new military aid package for Ukraine in the coming days. The exact date and contents of the package are yet to be disclosed.
  • Tim Cook, CEO of Apple, is reportedly planning to donate $1 million to Donald Trump's inauguration.
• Chinese Military Drone Training: The Chinese military is reportedly studying the use of drones in the Ukraine conflict, as evidenced by a propaganda video showing simulated drone attacks, including FPV drone drops, from both stationary positions and moving vehicles.
• Turkish Naval Developments: Turkey has commenced the construction of an aircraft carrier (MUGEM), an air defense destroyer (TF-2000), and a submarine (MILDEN). The aircraft carrier will have three runways and be capable of carrying up to 50 aircraft, including drones. The destroyer will be equipped with advanced weaponry, including a 127-mm cannon, vertical launch systems, and anti-ship missiles. The submarine will feature an Air-Independent Propulsion (AIP) system, enhancing its stealth and endurance.
• Potential Meeting Between Scholz and Putin: Reports suggest that German Chancellor Scholz may meet with Russian President Putin before February 23. This meeting could have significant implications for Ukraine, potentially leading to a suspension of the Paris Charter for 10-20 years. The reaction of the Ukrainian population and neighboring countries will be crucial in shaping the outcome of such a meeting. A German Bundestag member, Roderich Kiesewetter, opposes this, believing it would be detrimental to Ukraine.
• Potential Meeting Between Trump and Putin: Reports indicate a possible meeting between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin in March.
• US Secretary of State's Assessment: US Secretary of State Blinken believes that the front line in Ukraine is unlikely to change significantly in the near future and that any ceasefire would likely lead to Russia rearming and attacking again.
• Ukraine-Israel Relations: The Biden administration intends to sell $8 billion worth of weapons to Israel.

Other Significant Developments

• Casualty Reports: Ukrainian sources report significant Russian casualties, with an estimated 1,730 personnel lost in the past day, along with the destruction of 7 tanks, 26 armored fighting vehicles, 25 artillery systems, 91 tactical-level UAVs, 97 automotive vehicles, and 2 units of special equipment.
• Ukrainian Military Reports: The Ukrainian General Staff reports 179 combat clashes over the past day, with Russian forces actively using aviation and artillery in the Chernihiv and Sumy regions. The Ukrainian General Staff reports that the 79th Air Assault Brigade has been actively targeting Russian forces in their area of responsibility, including troops and armored vehicles. The Ukrainian General Staff reports that Ukrainian defense forces struck another oil depot of the Russian occupiers, "Yartsevskaya" in the Smolensk region. Powerful explosions and a fire were recorded at the facility, with heavy smoke observed. 1358 people have been released as a result of 11 prisoner exchanges. The Coordination Headquarters has approved a report summarizing its work in 2024.
• Infrastructure Damage: Several infrastructure facilities were damaged in the Zaporizhzhia region, according to the head of the regional administration. Reports that 12 apartment buildings, 2 educational institutions, and several infrastructure facilities were damaged in Shostka.
• Military Equipment: A British FV101 Scorpion light tank, modified with a 14.5-mm KPVT machine gun and equipped with communication and electronic warfare devices, was observed in service with the 1st Brigade "Bureviy" of the National Guard of Ukraine. The destruction of a Ukrainian 155-mm wheeled self-propelled gun 2S22 "Bogdan" on the chassis of a MAZ-6317 is also a notable event, as it is a rare modification.
• Fundraising for Missing Soldier: A campaign has been launched to locate a soldier named Igor, whose personal belongings, including letters from his wife and drawings from his daughters, were found in a hospital in Belgorod after an evacuation.
• Use of Electric Scooters by Russian Forces: Russian military personnel are increasingly using electric scooters, motorcycles, and ATVs to move quickly along the front line, making them elusive to Ukrainian forces, according to The New York Times.
• Air Missile Threat: "Dnevnik Desantnika" reports an air missile threat in the Bryansk, Kursk, Belgorod, Voronezh, Orel, and Kaluga regions. They