Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine - January 4, 2025, 22:45 UTC

Strategic Overview

The military situation in Ukraine remains highly dynamic, with intense fighting concentrated in the Donetsk and Kharkiv regions. Russian forces are making advances, notably around Kurakhove, Pokrovsk, and Velyka Novosilka, as well as near Toretsk and Novosilka. Ukrainian forces are conducting withdrawals and counteroffensives, with drone warfare playing a central role. The latest updates indicate a significant escalation in Russian drone activity across multiple regions, including Sumy, Chernihiv, Kyiv, Zhytomyr, Poltava, Kharkiv, and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts. Ukrainian air defenses are actively engaging these threats, with reports of drones over Poltava and Myrhorod, as well as a drone approaching Chernihiv.

New reports indicate drone attacks on Taganrog and Millerovo in the Rostov region of Russia, with the local governor, Yury Slyusar, stating that air defense forces are actively repelling the attacks. The attacks targeted a military airfield in Millerovo, and explosions were reported in Taganrog. The situation is further complicated by reports of internal issues within both the Ukrainian and Russian military structures, civilian casualties, and targeted attacks on journalists.

Key Updates

Intensified Drone Warfare

• New Drone Threats: Multiple new groups of Russian drones are entering Ukrainian airspace, particularly in Sumy, Chernihiv, Kharkiv, Poltava, and Zhytomyr Oblasts. Specific updates include:
  • Drones on the south of Sumy Oblast, with varied courses (west, southwest, southeast).
  • Drones in the center of Chernihiv Oblast, with varied courses (west, southwest, northwest).
  • Drones on the north of Kyiv Oblast, course west.
  • Drones in the east and southwest of Zhytomyr Oblast, course west/southwest.
  • Drones on the southeast of Poltava Oblast, course west/southwest.
  • Drones in Kharkiv Oblast, course west/southwest/northwest/south.
  • Drones in the east of Kharkiv Oblast, course west.
  • Drones in the north of Dnipropetrovsk and Donetsk Oblasts, course south/southwest.
  • A drone approaching Zhytomyr from the northeast.
  • A drone approaching Lubny (Poltava Oblast) from the northeast.
  • A drone approaching Cherkasy from the northeast.
  • A drone approaching Kremenchuk (Poltava Oblast) from the northeast.
  • Enemy drones approaching Chernihiv and Brovary.
  • A drone over Poltava.
  • A drone approaching Myrhorod (Poltava Oblast) from the east.
  • One drone from Zhytomyr Oblast is flying to Shepetivka region.
  • One drone is near Korosten, heading southwest.
  • Three drones are circling south of Chernihiv.
  • One drone flew past Pryluky heading west.
  • Two drones are circling at the intersection of Sumy and Poltava Oblast.
  • Two drones are circling north of Poltava.
  • Two drones are west of Poltava, heading west.
  • One drone is flying near Kremenchuk towards Oleksandriia.
  • One drone is heading towards or through Kamianka.
  • Two drones are circling near Barvinkove.
  • One drone flew past Balakliia heading west.
  • Two drones from Kharkiv Oblast are flying to Poltava Oblast.
• Drone Attacks in Russia: Ukrainian drone attacks are reported in Taganrog and Millerovo in the Rostov region.
  • The attacks targeted a military airfield in Millerovo.
  • Explosions were reported in Taganrog.
  • Governor Yury Slyusar reported that air defense forces are repelling the attacks.
  • Drones were reportedly destroyed in the Millerovo and Tarasovsky districts.
  • No casualties have been reported so far.
  • Videos circulating online show the drone attacks and explosions.
• Air Defense Activation: Ukrainian air defenses are active, particularly in Kyiv Oblast, engaging drones. Reports confirm air defenses are active over Poltava. Russian air defense forces are active in the Rostov region, with drones reportedly shot down over Taganrog, Millerovo, and Tarasovsky districts.
• Drone Warfare Tactics: A video analysis reveals the use of modified consumer drones by Ukrainian forces for reconnaissance and targeted attacks, emphasizing the growing threat of drone warfare. Reports indicate the use of "Baba Yaga" drones to launch attacks. The use of "Baba Yaga" drones to deliver RPG rounds is confirmed, highlighting the evolving tactics in drone warfare.

Ground Operations and Engagements

• Donetsk Region:
  • Intense fighting continues, with 149 combat clashes reported. The hottest areas are Pokrovsk and Kursk directions.
  • Russian forces have made advances near Kurakhove, Novosilka, and in Toretsk.
  • Ukrainian forces repelled 39 attacks in the Pokrovsk direction, with one ongoing.
  • Ukrainian forces repelled 11 attacks in the Kurakhiv direction, with five ongoing.
  • Heavy fighting is reported near Bohdanivka and Ivanivske, with both sides claiming success in repelling attacks.
  • The Ukrainian General Staff reported that the enemy advanced in Toretsk, near Kurakhove and Novosilka.
  • Russian forces conducted 11 offensive actions in the Toretsk direction.
  • Russian forces are advancing towards Novoaleksandrivka from Uspenovka and Novovasylivka.
  • Russian forces have liberated Petropavlivka and are engaged in battles for Slavyanka.
  • Russian forces have made advances near Sribne, Novandriivka, Yasenove, and Ukrainka.
  • Fierce battles are ongoing near Uspenovka and Novovasylivka.
  • Heavy artillery shelling is reported in Pokrovsk and the communication routes leading to the city, suggesting an impending Russian offensive.
• Kharkiv Region:
  • Russian forces attacked near Vovchansk and Starytsia.
  • Ukrainian forces repelled attacks near Zahryzove and Petropavlivka.
  • Russian forces launched guided aerial bombs on the north of Kharkiv Oblast.
• Kursk Region:
  • Ukrainian forces repelled 30 Russian attacks and reported significant Russian losses.
• Other Regions:
  • On the Lyman direction, Ukrainian forces stopped 16 Russian attacks.
  • On the Kramatorsk direction, Ukrainian forces repelled nine attacks.
  • On the Vremivka direction, Ukrainian forces repelled 15 attacks.
  • On the Orikhiv direction, Ukrainian forces repelled one attack.
  • On the Prydniprovskyi direction, Ukrainian forces repelled two attacks.

Geopolitical Developments

• Potential Meeting Between Scholz and Putin: Reports suggest a possible meeting between German Chancellor Scholz and Russian President Putin before February 23, potentially leading to a suspension of the Paris Charter for 10-20 years. A German Bundestag member, Roderich Kiesewetter, opposes this, believing it would be detrimental to Ukraine.
• Potential Meeting Between Trump and Putin: Reports indicate a possible meeting between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin in March.
• US Secretary of State's Assessment: US Secretary of State Blinken believes that the front line in Ukraine is unlikely to change significantly in the near future and that any ceasefire would likely lead to Russia rearming and attacking again.

Other Significant Developments

• Journalist Casualties: Several journalists were injured or killed in drone attacks, with reports of targeting to silence the press. The head of the DPR, Pushilin, called the killing of Izvestia journalist Alexander Martemyanov during a Ukrainian drone attack a "vile murder". Maria Zakharova, a Russian official, stated that those responsible for the attacks on Russian journalists would be punished and that the killings are a result of international organizations ignoring the crimes of the Kyiv regime.
• Internal Tensions: Reports indicate Ukrainian military personnel are hesitant to wear their uniforms in public due to fear and hostility from civilians. An incident in Donetsk involving an attempted assassination of a soldier who complained about torture by commanders highlights internal tensions within the Russian-controlled areas.
• Awards to Russian Airborne Units: Seven units of the Russian Airborne Forces have been awarded.
• Fundraising for Drones: Ongoing fundraising efforts to supply drones to both Ukrainian and Russian forces are reported. Ukrainian forces have reportedly purchased 270 additional drones.
• Turkish Naval Developments: Turkey has commenced construction of an aircraft carrier, an air defense destroyer, and a submarine, potentially impacting the Black Sea naval balance.

Updated Situation

The military situation in Ukraine is characterized by intense fighting, with a particular focus on the Donetsk and Kharkiv regions. Russian forces are making advances, while Ukrainian forces are conducting both withdrawals and counteroffensives. Drone warfare remains central, with new reports indicating a significant expansion of Russian drone operations across multiple regions, posing threats to Sumy, Chernihiv, Kyiv, Zhytomyr, Poltava, Kharkiv, and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts. Ukrainian air defenses are actively engaging these threats, with specific reports of drones over Poltava, Myrhorod, and approaching Chernihiv.

Ukrainian drone attacks on Taganrog and Millerovo in Russia mark a significant escalation, bringing the conflict to Russian territory. The targeting of a military airfield in Millerovo is particularly noteworthy. Russian air defense forces are actively engaged in repelling these attacks. The new information about drone movements and air defense activations reinforces the critical role of drone warfare and air defense systems in the current phase of the conflict.

Heavy artillery shelling in Pokrovsk suggests an impending Russian offensive in the area, with concerns that the defense line could collapse if reinforcements are not provided. The construction of new naval assets by Turkey introduces a significant new dynamic in the Black Sea, potentially challenging Russian naval dominance and impacting the conflict's trajectory.

Geopolitical tensions are heightened by potential meetings between Western and Russian leaders and possible shifts in US policy. The conflict continues to impact civilians, with casualties reported and internal tensions within Ukraine evident. The death of a Russian journalist in a drone attack further escalates tensions and adds another layer to the information war.