Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine - January 4, 2025, 22:30 UTC

Strategic Overview

The military situation in Ukraine remains highly dynamic, with intense fighting concentrated in the Donetsk and Kharkiv regions. Russian forces are making advances, notably around Kurakhove, Pokrovsk, and Velyka Novosilka, as well as near Toretsk and Novosilka. Ukrainian forces are conducting withdrawals and counteroffensives, with drone warfare playing a central role. The latest updates indicate a significant escalation in Russian drone activity across multiple regions, including Sumy, Chernihiv, Kyiv, Zhytomyr, Poltava, Kharkiv, and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts. Ukrainian air defenses are actively engaging these threats, with reports of drones over Poltava and Myrhorod, as well as a drone approaching Chernihiv. There are also reports of drones being shot down in the Rostov region.

Geopolitical tensions are highlighted by potential meetings between Western and Russian leaders, possible shifts in US policy, and ongoing international discussions regarding the conflict's resolution. The situation is further complicated by reports of internal issues within both the Ukrainian and Russian military structures, civilian casualties, and targeted attacks on journalists. The recent airstrikes on Semenivka in Chernihiv Oblast, resulting in seven civilian casualties, underscore the ongoing threat to civilian populations. The death of Izvestia journalist Alexander Martemyanov in a Ukrainian drone attack further escalates tensions, with Russian officials demanding a response from international organizations.

Key Updates

Intensified Drone Warfare

• New Drone Threats: Multiple new groups of Russian drones are entering Ukrainian airspace, particularly in Sumy, Chernihiv, Kharkiv, Poltava, and Zhytomyr Oblasts. Specific updates include:
  • Drones on the south of Sumy Oblast, with varied courses (west, southwest, southeast).
  • Drones in the center of Chernihiv Oblast, with varied courses (west, southwest, northwest).
  • Drones on the north of Kyiv Oblast, course west.
  • Drones in the east and southwest of Zhytomyr Oblast, course west/southwest.
  • Drones on the southeast of Poltava Oblast, course west/southwest.
  • Drones in Kharkiv Oblast, course west/southwest/northwest/south.
  • Drones in the east of Kharkiv Oblast, course west.
  • Drones in the north of Dnipropetrovsk and Donetsk Oblasts, course south/southwest.
  • A drone approaching Zhytomyr from the northeast.
  • A drone approaching Lubny (Poltava Oblast) from the northeast.
  • A drone approaching Cherkasy from the northeast.
  • A drone approaching Kremenchuk (Poltava Oblast) from the northeast.
  • Enemy drones approaching Chernihiv and Brovary.
  • A drone over Poltava.
  • A drone approaching Myrhorod (Poltava Oblast) from the east.
  • One drone from Zhytomyr Oblast is flying to Shepetivka region.
  • One drone is near Korosten, heading southwest.
  • Three drones are circling south of Chernihiv.
  • One drone flew past Pryluky heading west.
  • Two drones are circling at the intersection of Sumy and Poltava Oblast.
  • Two drones are circling north of Poltava.
  • Two drones are west of Poltava, heading west.
  • One drone is flying near Kremenchuk towards Oleksandriia.
  • One drone is heading towards or through Kamianka.
  • Two drones are circling near Barvinkove.
  • One drone flew past Balakliia heading west.
  • Two drones from Kharkiv Oblast are flying to Poltava Oblast.
  • Nikolaevskiy Vanyok reports on multiple drone movements, including 11 drones moving from the west of Kharkiv Oblast to Dnipropetrovsk, 4 drones near Poltava heading southwest, 1 drone near Oleksandriia heading southwest, 4 drones moving from Sumy Oblast to Kharkiv, 4 new drones in the Sumy district heading towards Chernihiv Oblast, 3 drones at the intersection of Kyiv and Zhytomyr Oblasts heading west, 2 drones leaving Chernihiv Oblast for Belarus, 1 drone moving from Chernihiv Oblast to the north of Kyiv, 2 drones over Nizhyn, 1 drone from Poltava Oblast heading towards Cherkasy, 2 new drones north of Izium heading west, 1 drone east of Izium heading towards Sloviansk, and 1 new drone heading towards or through Sumy.
• Air Defense Activation: Ukrainian air defenses are active, particularly in Kyiv Oblast, engaging drones. Reports confirm air defenses are active over Poltava. Russian air defense forces are active in the Rostov region, with drones reportedly shot down over Taganrog, Millerovo, and Tarasovsky districts.
• Drone Warfare Tactics: A video analysis reveals the use of modified consumer drones by Ukrainian forces for reconnaissance and targeted attacks, emphasizing the growing threat of drone warfare. Reports indicate the use of "Baba Yaga" drones to launch attacks. A captured Russian soldier stated his unit was used as cannon fodder and left behind. The use of "Baba Yaga" drones to deliver RPG rounds is confirmed, highlighting the evolving tactics in drone warfare.
• Journalist Casualties: Several journalists were injured or killed in drone attacks, with reports of targeting to silence the press. A survivor reported on a large-scale drone attack in Horlivka. The head of the DPR, Pushilin, called the killing of Izvestia journalist Alexander Martemyanov during a Ukrainian drone attack a "vile murder". Another survivor gave an account of journalist "Sasha" filming his last report on shelling before being killed in a drone strike. The drone that attacked the journalists' car was launched using a "Baba-Yaga," according to a surviving journalist. Maria Zakharova, a Russian official, stated that those responsible for the attacks on Russian journalists would be punished and that the killings are a result of international organizations ignoring the crimes of the Kyiv regime.

Ground Operations and Engagements

• Donetsk Region:
  • Intense fighting continues, with 149 combat clashes reported. The hottest areas are Pokrovsk and Kursk directions.
  • Russian forces have made advances near Kurakhove, Novosilka, and in Toretsk.
  • Ukrainian forces repelled 39 attacks in the Pokrovsk direction, with one ongoing.
  • Ukrainian forces repelled 11 attacks in the Kurakhiv direction, with five ongoing.
  • Heavy fighting is reported near Bohdanivka and Ivanivske, with both sides claiming success in repelling attacks.
  • The Ukrainian General Staff reported that the enemy advanced in Toretsk, near Kurakhove and Novosilka.
  • Russian forces conducted 11 offensive actions in the Toretsk direction.
  • Russian forces are advancing towards Novoaleksandrivka from Uspenovka and Novovasylivka.
  • Russian forces have liberated Petropavlivka and are engaged in battles for Slavyanka.
  • Russian forces have made advances near Sribne, Novandriivka, Yasenove, and Ukrainka.
  • Fierce battles are ongoing near Uspenovka and Novovasylivka.
• Kharkiv Region:
  • Russian forces attacked near Vovchansk and Starytsia.
  • Ukrainian forces repelled attacks near Zahryzove and Petropavlivka.
  • Russian forces launched guided aerial bombs on the north of Kharkiv Oblast.
• Kursk Region:
  • Ukrainian forces repelled 30 Russian attacks and reported significant Russian losses.
• Other Regions:
  • On the Lyman direction, Ukrainian forces stopped 16 Russian attacks.
  • On the Kramatorsk direction, Ukrainian forces repelled nine attacks.
  • On the Vremivka direction, Ukrainian forces repelled 15 attacks.
  • On the Orikhiv direction, Ukrainian forces repelled one attack.
  • On the Prydniprovskyi direction, Ukrainian forces repelled two attacks.
• Guided Aerial Bomb Attacks:
  • Russian forces launched four guided aerial bombs on Semenivka, Chernihiv Oblast, targeting the city center and a residential area. Seven civilians were injured, and damage was reported to an administrative building, a hospital, a cafe, residential buildings, and civilian vehicles.
  • Repeated launches of guided aerial bombs were reported on Sumy and Donetsk Oblasts.
  • Launches of guided aerial bombs were reported on the north of Kharkiv Oblast.

Geopolitical Developments

• Potential Meeting Between Scholz and Putin: Reports suggest a possible meeting between German Chancellor Scholz and Russian President Putin before February 23, potentially leading to a suspension of the Paris Charter for 10-20 years. A German Bundestag member, Roderich Kiesewetter, opposes this, believing it would be detrimental to Ukraine.
• Potential Meeting Between Trump and Putin: Reports indicate a possible meeting between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin in March.
• US Secretary of State's Assessment: US Secretary of State Blinken believes that the front line in Ukraine is unlikely to change significantly in the near future and that any ceasefire would likely lead to Russia rearming and attacking again.
• US Politics: Tim Cook, CEO of Apple, is reportedly planning to donate $1 million to Donald Trump's inauguration.
• Ukraine-Israel Relations: The Biden administration intends to sell $8 billion worth of weapons to Israel.
• Zelenskyy's Statement: President Zelenskyy stated that the January 9 Ramstein meeting will discuss Ukraine's defense against Russian missiles, guided bombs, and aircraft.

Other Significant Developments

• Internal Tensions: Reports indicate Ukrainian military personnel are hesitant to wear their uniforms in public due to fear and hostility from civilians. An incident in Donetsk involving an attempted assassination of a soldier who complained about torture by commanders highlights internal tensions within the Russian-controlled areas. A video depicts men in a cramped room claiming to be held against their will, tear-gassed, and mistreated, suggesting potential civil unrest or resistance to mobilization.
• Awards to Russian Airborne Units: Seven units of the Russian Airborne Forces have been awarded.
• Fundraising for Drones: Ongoing fundraising efforts to supply drones to both Ukrainian and Russian forces are reported. Ukrainian forces have reportedly purchased 270 additional drones.
• Polish Evacuation Plans: Poland is developing evacuation plans in case of natural disasters or military threats.
• Mobilization Death in Chernivtsi: Another death during mobilization in the Armed Forces of Ukraine occurred in Chernivtsi.
• Restoration of Key Social Services in Ukraine: Access to key social services in Ukraine will be restored tomorrow after a Russian cyberattack.
• Truck Driver to Avoid Trial by Joining the War: A truck driver responsible for a deadly accident will avoid trial by signing a contract to fight in Ukraine.
• US Data Restrictions: The US government has restricted access to citizens' personal data for unfriendly countries, including Russia, China, Iran, North Korea, Cuba, and Venezuela.
• Turkish Naval Developments: Turkey has commenced construction of an aircraft carrier, an air defense destroyer, and a submarine, potentially impacting the Black Sea naval balance.
• Environmental Disaster in Anapa: 90% of birds rescued in Anapa died during transportation due to overloading and improper handling. Volunteers are cleaning up oil spills on the coast.
• Shelling in Donetsk: Ukrainian forces reportedly shelled Donetsk 33 times, injuring 19 people.

Updated Situation

The military situation in Ukraine is characterized by intense fighting, with a particular focus on the Donetsk and Kharkiv regions. Russian forces are making advances, while Ukrainian forces are conducting both withdrawals and counteroffensives. Drone warfare remains central, with new reports indicating a significant expansion of Russian drone operations across multiple regions, posing threats to Sumy, Chernihiv, Kyiv, Zhytomyr, Poltava, Kharkiv, and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts. Ukrainian air defenses are actively engaging these threats, with specific reports of drones over Poltava, Myrhorod, and approaching Chernihiv. Russian air defense forces are also active, with reports of drones shot down in the Rostov region.

The construction of new naval assets by Turkey introduces a significant new dynamic in the Black Sea, potentially challenging Russian naval dominance and impacting the conflict's trajectory. The recent airstrikes on Semenivka and reports of shelling in Donetsk highlight the continued danger to civilian populations. The death of a Russian journalist in a drone attack further escalates tensions and adds another layer to the information war.

Geopolitical tensions are heightened by potential meetings between Western and Russian leaders and possible shifts in US policy. The conflict continues to impact civilians, with casualties reported and internal tensions within Ukraine evident. The importance of logistics, particularly in the supply of drones and other advanced equipment, is underscored by ongoing fundraising efforts.

The situation is further complicated by reports of journalists being targeted, environmental disasters, and internal issues within both the Ukrainian and Russian military structures. The international dimension is marked by Poland's preparations for potential evacuations and discussions about the restoration of social services in Ukraine following cyberattacks. The recent drone attacks and air raid alerts across multiple regions highlight the widespread and escalating nature of the conflict. The reported advances of Russian forces in Toretsk, near Kurakhove and Novosilka, as indicated by DeepState, further emphasize the ongoing intensity of ground operations. The potential meetings between Scholz and Putin, as well as Trump and Putin, could significantly impact the trajectory of the conflict, with concerns raised about the potential for agreements detrimental to Ukraine. The new information about drone movements and air defense activations reinforces the critical role of drone warfare and air defense systems in the current phase of the conflict.