Strategic Overview

The military situation in Ukraine remains critical as of January 3, 2025, 08:17 UTC. Russian forces maintain offensive momentum, particularly in the Donetsk region, with significant advances near Kurakhove, Pokrovsk, and Toretsk (Dzerzhinsk). They are making progress in the Vremivka and Mezheve directions, aiming to encircle Pokrovsk and cut off the highway to Konstantinovka. Ukrainian forces are reported to be under pressure, attempting to hold their positions while facing a strategic threat to their supply lines.

In the Kharkiv region, specifically the Bohodukhiv and Zolochiv districts, heavy shelling is reported, with Russian forces utilizing aviation and drones.

Drone warfare remains a crucial aspect of the conflict, with extensive use by both sides. Ukrainian air defenses report shooting down 60 out of 93 Russian drones launched overnight, with 26 "locationally lost" due to active countermeasures.

Key Developments

Russian Military Actions and Advances

• Donetsk Region:

  • Intense fighting near Kurakhove, with Russian forces capturing three factories and the industrial zone, advancing towards Petropavlivka, Krasne (Sontsovka), Novovasylivka, and Uspenovka.
  • Russian forces report entering the eastern outskirts of Petropavlovka.
  • In Kurakhove, Russian forces have secured most of the city, with only the outskirts requiring clearance.
  • Heavy fighting in Novovasylivka, 10 km southwest of Pokrovsk, with active assault operations. Russian forces are trying to bypass Pokrovsk and cut off Ukrainian supply lines.
  • Russian forces liberated Novyi Trud, Konstantinopolskoe (Ostrovskoe), Zelenovka, Novyi Komar, Novopustynka, Neskuchne, Novoolenivka, and Uspenovka.
  • Russian forces liberated around 10 sq km along the Huliaipole - Velyka Novosilka road and dislodged Ukrainian forces from Rozdolne in the Vremivka direction.
  • Russian forces liberated Makarivka on December 16th and gained control over the road between Huliaipole and Velyka Novosilka.
  • Russian forces advanced near Terny, Vozdvyzhenka, Novoukrainka, Uspenivka, Dalne, Sontsivka, Novoelizavetivka, Vovkove, Kurakhove, and Shevchenko.
  • Russian forces report taking new positions in the northern part of Chasiv Yar, advancing up to 1.5 km and securing the railway station.
  • In Toretsk (Dzerzhinsk), Russian forces are advancing north of the Central Market and attacking towards the spoil heaps of the No. 10 and Toretsk mines.
  • On the Pokrovsk (Krasnoarmeysk) front, Russian troops are attacking near Novovasylivka, southwest of Pokrovsk. South of the city, Russian forces are leveling the front near Zelene.
  • In the Zaporizhzhia front, the actions of Russian forward units in the western part of Belohiria, Polohy Raion, have become known.
  • Russian forces captured three factories in Kurakhove, signifying a substantial gain.

• Kursk Region:

  • Russian forces are making progress in the forests of the Sudzhansky district and near Leonidovo and Kurilovka.
  • Ukrainian reserves, including foreign mercenaries, are reportedly being transferred to the region.
  • Russian forces report reaching Kurylivka, south of Sudzha.
  • The "Sever" group of forces is engaged in fierce battles along the entire front line of the Kursk Region.
  • Russian forces made advances in the northern Sudzha district and near Cherkasskaya Konopelka.
  • Calculations of the MLRS "Grad" group of troops "North" destroyed strongholds and infantry of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the Kursk region.
  • Russian forces report they liberated Pogrebki, Russkoye Porechnoye, Kamyshovka, Lozova, and Novovasylivka.

• Krasnolimansky Direction:

  • Russian forces are attempting to capture heights beyond Ivanovka near Terny.
  • A buildup of Russian forces is noted on the newly formed bridgehead in Ivanovka on the right bank of the Zherebets River.
  • Russian forces are storming Zahryzove, pushing through defenses near Lozova and Zelenyi Hai, and moving towards Borova.
  • Russian forces advanced in the central part of Terny.

• Kharkiv Region:

  • Russian aviation and "Geran" drones have been targeting the Bohodukhiv and Zolochiv districts.
  • Six explosions were reported in Bohodukhiv and 11 in Zolochiv.

Ukrainian Actions

• Drone Attacks on Russia:

  • Numerous drones destroyed over Voronezh, Bryansk, Rostov, Kaluga, Kursk, Orlov, Belgorod, Volgograd, and Lipetsk regions.
  • A Russian court ordered Yandex to block access to maps and photographs of oil refineries due to Ukrainian drone attacks.
  • Ukrainian forces conducted a successful drone operation in the Kursk region, targeting a Russian T-90 tank and an ammunition depot.
  • Ukrainian forces report their drones can strike targets up to 2000 km away.
  • Ukrainian forces report destroying a Russian "Baba Yaga" drone near Kupyansk.
  • Ukrainian air defense forces successfully detected and neutralized about ten hostile drones near Kyiv.
  • Video evidence shows Ukrainian forces targeting Russian positions with drones, resulting in multiple explosions and fires.
  • Ukrainian forces report destroying 3 Russian BTRs.

• Drone Attacks on Ukraine:

  • Ukrainian air defenses report shooting down 47 out of 72 drones, 24 drones that failed to reach their targets, and one drone still airborne.
  • New reports of drone threats in Kharkiv, Poltava, Sumy, Cherkasy, Kyiv, Mykolaiv, Zhytomyr, and Kirovohrad Oblasts.
  • Ukrainian air defense forces report shooting down two "Shahed" drones in the Sumy region.
  • Ukrainian Air Force reports increased drone activity in Poltava and Myrhorod, as well as in Kyivska and Chernihivska regions.
  • Ukrainian Air Force reports updates on the movement of Russian drones.
  • Reports of drone movements in various regions, including Chernihiv, Poltava, Cherkasy, Kyiv, Mykolaiv, Zhytomyr, and Kirovohrad.
  • Reports of drone movements in Kharkiv, Dnipropetrovsk, and Chernihiv Oblasts.
  • Ukrainian air defenses reportedly shot down 7 drones over Dnipropetrovsk Oblast.
  • Air raid alerts have been issued in Mykolaiv Oblast due to the threat of "Shahed" drones.
  • Enemy drones are moving from the Black Sea towards Chornomorske/Pivdenne (Odesa Oblast).
  • New Shahed drones are heading towards Odesa Oblast, specifically towards the Bilhorod-Dnistrovskyi district.
  • The Air Force reported movement of drones in various directions, including towards Odesa, Myrhorod, and Chernihiv.
  • One drone is flying from the Mykolaiv region towards the Odesa region, to the north of the region.
  • Several Shahed drones detected moving from the Black Sea towards Chornomorske and Pivdenne.
  • A new group of drones from Sumy Oblast is moving towards Poltava Oblast.
  • A high-speed target is reported on the border of Odesa and Mykolaiv oblasts.
  • The missile is flying west of Voznesensk towards Pervomaisk.
  • Ukrainian Air Force reports updates on the movement of Russian drones.
  • City of Pryluky (Chernihiv Oblast) is under threat from enemy drones approaching from the northeast.
  • The Ukrainian Air Force reports the movement of drones in Kharkiv Oblast towards Poltava Oblast, in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast to the south-west and west, in Chernihiv Oblast to the west, and new groups in the east of Kharkiv Oblast to the west.
  • Drone movement has been detected in the Khmelnytskyi, Poltava, and Chernihiv regions, specifically near Nizhyn.

Other Significant Developments

• The West does not rule out an early collapse of the Ukrainian Armed Forces' defense and notes a decline in Ukraine's ability to resist the Russian army, the Russian Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR) reports.
• The SVR also reports that a decision has been prepared to reduce the mobilization age to 18 in Ukraine and will be made soon.
• Eastern European countries are preparing to receive new waves of Ukrainian refugees after the mobilization age is lowered.
• Kazakhstan's President Tokayev stated that Russia is militarily invincible and that Ukraine is trying to "survive the war, at least not lose it" with the help of Western allies.
• All industrial enterprises in Transnistria have reportedly ceased operations due to a lack of energy resources following the cessation of Russian gas supplies.
• Ukrainian forces struck another oil depot of the Russian occupiers, "Yartsevskaya" in the Smolensk region.
• Russian forces captured an "International MaxxPro" and a "Kozak" armored vehicle from Ukrainian forces on the Krasnoarmeysk direction.
• One Russian missile carrier is present in the Black Sea, but without Kalibr missiles. No enemy ships are observed in the Azov Sea.

Updated Situation

The military situation in Ukraine is rapidly escalating, particularly in the Donetsk and Kharkiv regions. Russian forces are making significant advances, aiming to encircle Pokrovsk and cut off key supply lines. Ukrainian forces are under immense pressure, facing a strategic threat to their positions and supply routes. Drone warfare remains a central element of the conflict, with both sides utilizing drones extensively for reconnaissance and attack missions. The large-scale drone attack on Ukraine, with 93 drones launched by Russia, demonstrates the intensity of this aspect of the conflict. The Ukrainian air defense forces' success in shooting down 60 drones highlights their capabilities but also the challenges they face in countering such attacks. The situation is further complicated by reports of heavy shelling in the Kharkiv region and the potential lowering of the mobilization age in Ukraine. The international community continues to monitor the situation closely, with varying perspectives on the conflict's trajectory and potential outcomes. The coming days and weeks will likely see further developments, with the potential for increased escalation and significant shifts in the balance of power.