Updated Military Situation in Ukraine - December 31, 2024, 21:47 UTC

Strategic Overview

The military situation in Ukraine remains highly dynamic and volatile, with significant developments in the past few hours. The conflict is characterized by intense fighting, particularly in the Donetsk and Kharkiv regions, with Russian forces making notable advances, especially around Kurakhove and towards Pokrovsk. Drone warfare remains a prominent feature, with both sides utilizing drones extensively for reconnaissance, targeting, and attacks. Ukrainian forces are engaged in a fighting withdrawal in some areas, notably towards the Dnipro River, while also launching new offensives in others, such as near Volchansk.

Key Developments

Donetsk Oblast

• Kurakhove: Russian forces have made a significant advance, capturing the Kurakhovskaya Thermal Power Plant and raising the Russian flag over it. This signifies a major gain for Russian forces and further solidifies their control over the city, with reports indicating they control approximately 80% of Kurakhove. Ukrainian forces are reportedly withdrawing from the city.
• Pokrovsk: Russian forces are continuing their offensive operations towards Pokrovsk, with reports of intense fighting and the destruction of Ukrainian equipment. The situation in this area remains fluid, with both sides engaged in heavy combat. Russian forces are advancing south towards Ukrainka, reportedly entering Pisky, and are storming Novooleenovka and advancing towards Slavyanka.
• Vremivka: Russian forces captured Storozheve, forming a new "pocket" near Velyka Novosilka, and liberated Uspenovka and Novyi Komar. Clashes are ongoing near multiple settlements, and Russian forces are advancing towards Velyka Novosilka.
• Toretsk: Street fighting continues, with Russian forces capturing two objects on the outskirts of the "Central" mine spoil heap. Clashes are ongoing near multiple settlements, and Russian forces are advancing behind New York.
• Chasiv Yar: Russian forces control over half of the city, with Ukrainian units regrouping. Russian forces retook positions at the fire-resistant compound, and clashes are reported near Stupochky and Predtechyne.

Kharkiv Oblast

• Volchansk: Russian forces launched a new offensive, crossing the Volchya River and establishing a bridgehead.
• Kupyansk: Fighting continues, with reports of Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian positions.
• Drone Activity: Reports of drone movements in Kharkiv Oblast towards Poltava Oblast, in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast to the south-west and west, in Chernihiv Oblast to the west, and new groups in the east of Kharkiv Oblast to the west.

Other Regions

• Kyiv: Air raid alerts were activated and lifted. Reports of air defense activity and explosions, with debris falling in the Darnytskyi district.
• Zaporizhzhia: Air raid alerts were activated and lifted. Reports of drone attacks and explosions. An explosion was reported in the city.
• Sumy: Air raid alerts were activated due to drone threats. A high-speed target was reported in the direction of Shostka.
• Mykolaiv: Air raid alerts were activated and lifted due to drone threats. Reports of drone attacks.
• Odesa: Reports of drone attacks.
• Kursk Oblast: Heavy fighting with reports of Ukrainian drone and HIMARS strikes. Ukrainian forces conducted a drone operation targeting a Russian T-90 tank and an ammunition depot.

Drone Warfare Highlights

• AI Integration: Russia is confirmed to be integrating AI into Shahed drones.
• Ukrainian Innovations: Shotgun-mounted drones are being used to down enemy drones.
• Extensive Use: FPV drones are being used extensively by both sides.
• Targeting Successes: Ukrainian forces report multiple successful drone strikes on Russian equipment, personnel, and infrastructure.
• New Drone Attacks: Reports of a massive drone attack on Russian regions, with 68 drones shot down overnight.
• Drone Attack on Russian Helicopter: A Ukrainian Magura V5 naval drone reportedly shot down a Russian Mi-8 helicopter near Cape Tarkhankut in Crimea, using an R-73 "SeeDragon" missile. Another Mi-8 was reportedly damaged but able to reach its base.

Other Significant Updates

• Continued Air Activity: Reports indicate ongoing air activity with the take-off of a MiG-31K from Savasleyka and the launch of X-22 missiles from Tu-22M3 bombers. Multiple missiles targeted Shostka.
• Military Engagements: The Ukrainian General Staff reports 168 combat clashes over the past day, with significant Russian losses.
• Explosions in Sevastopol: Reports of loud explosions in Sevastopol overnight, with claims of drone attacks.
• SpaceX and Starlink: SpaceX has reportedly entered into a new agreement to provide satellite communication services to Ukraine through Kyivstar, a mobile operator.
• Potential Assault in Kherson Region: Reports suggest that Russian forces are preparing for an assault in the Kherson region, expecting heavy losses.
• Fundraising Campaigns: Several fundraising campaigns for both Ukrainian and Russian forces are ongoing.
• Ukraine's Commitment to Syria: Ukrainian President Zelensky stated that Ukraine will "do everything possible to help Syria get rid of Russian influence."
• Attacks on Infrastructure in Shostka: Reports that 12 apartment buildings, 2 educational institutions, and several infrastructure facilities were damaged in Shostka.
• Frontline Report from Seversk Direction: Reports indicate that Ukrainian forces are continuing to destroy Russian forces near Verkhnokamyanske.
• Russian Naval Successes: The Commander-in-Chief of the Russian Navy reported that the Pacific Fleet was ranked first among Russian fleets in 2024.
• Increase in Crimes Committed by Migrants in Russia: Reports of a significant increase in crimes committed by migrants in Russia in 2024.
• Propaganda Efforts: Ongoing propaganda efforts by both sides, including a video from a Russian soldier in a Ded Moroz costume and videos showing drone targeting.
• Report of Ukrainian delegation visit to Damascus: Ukrainian delegation visited Damascus and presented a traditional Ukrainian shirt to al-Julani. Kyiv is reportedly interested in acquiring jihadists, particularly Chechens, and weapons.
• Claim of potential appearance of Chechen fighters in the Special Military Operation zone: Chechen fighters who previously fought in Aleppo and Homs might soon appear in the conflict zone, fighting on the Ukrainian side.
• Appointment of former head of Kyiv Regional State Administration: Ruslan Kravchenko has been appointed head of the State Tax Service of Ukraine.
• New Drone Attacks: New reports indicate continued drone activity, with multiple drones targeting Zaporizhzhia. Ukrainian air defenses are actively engaging these drones.

Updated Situation

The military situation in Ukraine remains highly volatile, with ongoing fighting, significant casualties, and a high risk of further escalation. Russian forces have made a notable advance in Kurakhove, capturing the Kurakhovskaya Thermal Power Plant. Drone warfare continues to be a prominent feature, with reports of multiple drones targeting Zaporizhzhia and Ukrainian air defenses actively engaging these threats. Russian forces are continuing their offensive operations towards Pokrovsk, with intense fighting reported.

The capture of the Kurakhovskaya TPP and the offensive towards Pokrovsk represent a significant shift in the balance of power in the Donetsk region. The continued drone attacks on Zaporizhzhia highlight the persistent threat to Ukrainian cities and infrastructure. The strategic implications of the conflict continue to evolve, with potential impacts on regional and global stability.