Sitrep 2024-12-31 21:19:15

Updated Military Situation in Ukraine - December 31, 2024, 21:17 UTC

Strategic Overview

The military situation in Ukraine remains extremely volatile, with intense fighting concentrated in the Donetsk and Kharkiv regions. Russian forces are making significant advances, particularly around Kurakhove, Pokrovsk, and along the Vremivka direction. Drone warfare continues to be a dominant feature, with both sides utilizing drones extensively for reconnaissance, targeting, and attacks. Russia's reported integration of AI into Shahed drones represents a concerning development. Ukrainian forces are engaged in a fighting withdrawal in some areas, notably towards the Dnipro River, while also launching new offensives in others, such as near Volchansk. They are employing counter-drone measures and inflicting losses on Russian troops and equipment.

The air situation is highly active, with Russia launching multiple strategic bombers and deploying cruise missiles. Air raid alerts have been repeatedly activated and lifted across Ukraine, including in Kyiv, Zaporizhzhia, Sumy, and Mykolaiv Oblasts. Ukrainian air defenses are actively engaging drones and missiles.

Key Developments

Donetsk Oblast

Kurakhove: Russian forces have reportedly captured the entirety of Kurakhove, including the Kurakhove thermal power plant, with fighting continuing in the industrial zone on the western outskirts.
Pokrovsk: Heavy fighting continues, with Ukrainian forces engaged in a fighting withdrawal. Drone warfare is prominent, with both sides utilizing drones for reconnaissance and attacks.
Vremivka: Russian forces continue to make advances along this direction.
Toretsk: Urban combat is ongoing, with Russian forces attempting to break through via Shcherbynivka. Ukrainian forces used drones to destroy a Russian command post near the Toretsk mine.
Chasiv Yar: Fighting continues, with Russian forces reportedly controlling over half the city, including the railway station.

Kharkiv Oblast

Volchansk: Russian forces launched a new offensive, crossing the Volchya River and establishing a bridgehead.
Kupyansk: Fighting continues, with reports of Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian positions.
Drone Activity: Reports of drone movements in Kharkiv Oblast towards Poltava Oblast, in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast to the south-west and west, in Chernihiv Oblast to the west, and new groups in the east of Kharkiv Oblast to the west.

Kursk Oblast

Heavy Fighting: Ongoing engagements with reports of Ukrainian drone and HIMARS strikes.
Drone Warfare: Ukrainian forces conducted a drone operation in the Kursk region, targeting a Russian T-90 tank and an ammunition depot.

Other Regions

Kyiv: Air raid alerts activated and lifted. Reports of air defense activity and explosions.
Zaporizhzhia: Air raid alerts activated and lifted. Reports of drone attacks and explosions.
Sumy: Air raid alerts activated due to drone threats. A high-speed target was reported in the direction of Shostka.
Mykolaiv: Air raid alerts activated and lifted due to drone threats. Reports of drone attacks.
Odesa: Reports of drone attacks.

Drone Warfare Highlights

AI Integration: Russia is confirmed to be integrating AI into Shahed drones.
Ukrainian Innovations: Shotgun-mounted drones used to down enemy drones.
Extensive Use: FPV drones used extensively by both sides.
Targeting Successes: Ukrainian forces report multiple successful drone strikes on Russian equipment, personnel, and infrastructure.
New Drone Attacks: Reports of a massive drone attack on Russian regions, with 68 drones shot down overnight.

Geopolitical and Other Developments

US Support: Continued US support for Ukraine.
NATO Presence: Increased NATO presence in the Baltic Sea.
BRICS Expansion: Potential expansion discussed, highlighting global instability.
Russian Counter-Extremism Strategy: Introduction of new strategy, including "Russophobia" concept.
Civilian Airliner Crash: Crash in South Korea with significant casualties, underscoring global instability.
Telegram Disruptions: Reports of Telegram outages in Russia and abroad.
Ukrainian Diplomatic Efforts: Ukraine seeking to broaden international support, including a visit to Damascus.
Poland's EU Accession Support: Poland intends to speed up Ukraine's accession to the EU.
War Crimes Accusations: Some of the military personnel participating in the New Year's shows on Russian television channels are accused of war crimes in Ukraine.

Changes to the Situation from New Messages

Continued Air Activity: Reports indicate ongoing air activity with the take-off of a MiG-31K from Savasleyka and the launch of X-22 missiles from Tu-22M3 bombers. There's also a high-speed target in the northern part of Chernihiv Oblast and reports of multiple missiles targeting Shostka.
Attacks in Kharkiv Oblast: On the Kharkiv direction, the enemy attacked twice near Vovchansk and Lyptsi. On the Kupiansk direction, the enemy attempted to advance 16 times near Holubivka, Stepova Novoselivka, Kruhliakivka, and Zahryzove. Six clashes are ongoing.
Military Engagements: The Ukrainian General Staff reports 168 combat clashes over the past day. The enemy launched one missile strike and used 1864 kamikaze drones. Ukrainian aviation, missile, and artillery forces struck four areas of enemy concentration, an ammunition depot, and six other important enemy targets.
Russian Losses: Over the past day, Russian losses amounted to 1,610 personnel, five tanks, 27 armored fighting vehicles, 34 artillery systems, 12 operational-tactical UAVs, 75 vehicles, and one unit of special equipment.
Russian Drone Usage: The "Ghost Khortytsia" battalion, a unit of the 15th Brigade of the National Guard of Ukraine, has conducted 1797 drone missions since its formation on December 13, 2024. They claim to have killed or wounded 232 enemy personnel, destroyed 220 infrastructure points, 13 armored vehicles, 3 logistics vehicles, 2 electronic warfare/SIGINT units, and conducted 26 remote mining missions.
Explosions in Kyiv: Explosions were reported in Kyiv, with debris falling in the Darnytskyi district. No casualties or significant damage were reported.
Air Defense Activity in Kyiv: Air defense systems are active in Kyiv, indicating ongoing threats.
Missile Attacks on Shostka: Russian forces launched multiple missile attacks on Shostka, Sumy Oblast.
Drone Attacks in Smolensk Oblast: Reports of drone attacks on an oil depot in Smolensk Oblast.
Explosions in Sevastopol: Reports of loud explosions in Sevastopol overnight, with claims of drone attacks.
Drone Attacks in North Ossetia: A drone was reportedly shot down over a training ground in North Ossetia. Vladikavkaz airport was closed for arrivals and departures.
Drone and Missile Attacks on Crimea: 17 drones were reportedly shot down over Crimea overnight, with 4 near Sevastopol. Two unmanned boats were also reportedly destroyed near the coast of Sevastopol.
SpaceX and Starlink: SpaceX has reportedly entered into a new agreement to provide satellite communication services to Ukraine through Kyivstar, a mobile operator. SpaceX has a contract with the US Department of Defense to provide 2,500 Starlink terminals to Ukraine with access to the Starshield system, a secure and encrypted signal.
Potential Assault in Kherson Region: Reports from a partisan group "ATESH" suggest that Russian forces are preparing for an assault in the Kherson region, expecting heavy losses.
Alleged Attempted Assassination in Donetsk: Reports of an attempted assassination of an illegally mobilized individual in Donetsk.
Russian Military Training: The Russian Minister of Defense inspected combat training of Black Sea Fleet marines, focusing on tactical and special training, including the use of FPV drones.
Fundraising Campaigns: Several fundraising campaigns for both Ukrainian and Russian forces are ongoing.
Ukrainian Morale-Boosting Video: A video from the 97th Separate Mechanized Battalion of the 60th Mechanized Brigade shows Ukrainian forces targeting a Russian soldier with a drone strike on the Lyman direction of the front.
Ukraine's Commitment to Syria: Ukrainian President Zelensky stated that Ukraine will "do everything possible to help Syria get rid of Russian influence."
Attacks on Infrastructure in Shostka: Reports that 12 apartment buildings, 2 educational institutions, and several infrastructure facilities were damaged in Shostka.
Public Opinion Poll: A poll by the "Rating" group indicates that the Ukrainian Armed Forces are the most trusted institution in Ukraine, with over 70% of respondents having relatives who have fought or are fighting in the war.
Frontline Report from Seversk Direction: Reports from the "Diary of a Paratrooper" Telegram channel indicate that Ukrainian forces are continuing to destroy Russian forces near Verkhnokamyanske, with the goal of expanding control towards a field reservoir east of Seversk. Ukrainian forces also reportedly advanced 900 meters south of Vyimka after clearing a forest belt.
Russian Naval Successes: The Commander-in-Chief of the Russian Navy reported that the Pacific Fleet was ranked first among Russian fleets in 2024, with over 350 exercises conducted.
HIMARS Strike in Kherson Oblast: Reports of a Russian missile strike targeting HIMARS launchers in Kherson Oblast.
Ukrainian Military Losses in Kurakhove Direction: Reports from TASS, citing sources in the security forces, that Ukrainian forces have lost at least three battalions in the Kurakhove direction in recent weeks.
Russian Government Denies Lump-Sum Payments to Contracted Prisoners: A new decree from the Russian government denies lump-sum payments to prisoners who sign contracts to join the military.
Increase in Crimes Committed by Migrants in Russia: Reports of a significant increase in crimes committed by migrants in Russia in 2024, including a 40% increase in rapes.
Propaganda Efforts: A video from a Russian soldier in a Ded Moroz costume delivering a holiday message and a video from the Telegram channel "T.ME/RUSICH_ARMY" showing a drone targeting Ukrainian personnel and positions, followed by artillery strikes, are examples of ongoing propaganda efforts by both sides.
Report of Ukrainian delegation visit to Damascus: Ukrainian delegation visited Damascus and presented a traditional Ukrainian shirt to al-Julani.
Report of non-public part of negotiations between Ukrainian delegation and Damascus: Kyiv is reportedly interested in acquiring jihadists, particularly Chechens, and weapons from the remnants of the Syrian government army.
Claim of potential appearance of Chechen fighters in the Special Military Operation zone: The report suggests that Chechen fighters who previously fought in Aleppo and Homs might soon appear in the conflict zone, fighting on the Ukrainian side.
Report of Russian forces being attacked by soldiers from the Foreign Legion under Pokrovsk: Russian forces attacked soldiers from the Foreign Legion near Pokrovsk.
Appointment of former head of Kyiv Regional State Administration: Ruslan Kravchenko has been appointed head of the State Tax Service of Ukraine.
Inspection of combat training of Black Sea Fleet marines: Russian Minister of Defense inspected combat training, focusing on tactical and special training, including the use of FPV drones.
Report on the downing of a Russian helicopter by a Ukrainian drone: A Ukrainian drone reportedly struck a Russian helicopter using an R-73 missile.
Sabotage in Tver: The Legion "Freedom of Russia" claimed responsibility for setting fire to a communication tower in Tver.
Map Updates: Several changes to the map were reported, including:
- Russian forces advancing past the Solen River near Dachenskoye.
- Russian forces capturing the railway station in Chasiv Yar.
- Russian forces advancing near the Agronom farm.
- Russian forces improving positions in Toretsk.
- Russian forces advancing west of Uspenovka.
- Russian forces expanding the control zone north of Dachenskoye.
- Russian forces entering Makhnovka.
- Russian forces advancing in Vozdvyzhenka.
- Russian forces expanding the control zone northwest of Uspenovka.
- Russian forces liberating Volkovo.
- Russian forces controlling most of Terny.
Explosion in Zaporizhzhia: An explosion was reported in Zaporizhzhia.
Military Recruiting: Ukrainian military personnel with master's degrees and leadership experience will be able to hold officer positions without attending additional courses.
New Drone Attacks: Reports of new Russian missile and drone attacks on Ukraine, with damage reported in Shostka and Kyiv. Air raid alerts have been issued across the country.
Air Raid Alerts Lifted in Kyiv: Air raid alerts have been lifted in Kyiv, indicating a temporary de-escalation in the immediate threat.
Ukrainian Drone Strikes Russian Helicopter: Ukrainian forces successfully used a Magura V5 naval drone equipped with an R-73 "SeeDragon" missile to shoot down a Russian Mi-8 helicopter near Cape Tarkhankut in Crimea. This marks a significant development in Ukraine's naval drone capabilities.
Toretsk: Urban combat is ongoing, with Russian forces attempting to break through via Shcherbynivka.
Zaporizhzhia: An explosion was reported in the city.
Drone Attack on Russian Helicopter: A Ukrainian Magura V5 naval drone reportedly shot down a Russian Mi-8 helicopter near Cape Tarkhankut in Crimea, using an R-73 "SeeDragon" missile. Another Mi-8 was reportedly damaged but able to reach its base.
New Drone Attacks: Reports of a massive drone attack on Russian regions, with 68 drones shot down overnight.
Drone Attack on Bryansk Oblast: Reports that a Ukrainian drone was shot down over Bryansk Oblast, with no casualties or damage reported.
Drone Attack on Russian Helicopter: A Ukrainian Magura V5 naval drone reportedly shot down a Russian Mi-8 helicopter near Cape Tarkhankut in Crimea, using an R-73 "SeeDragon" missile. Another Mi-8 was reportedly damaged but able to reach its base.
New Advertisement for a Mobile Game: A new advertisement for a mobile game called "Battle of Drones: Ukraine," created by "real commanders during the war."
Praise for Russian General: A photo and message praising Colonel-General Andrei Mordvichev as the "commander of the year," highlighting the successes of his troops in 2024.
Drone Attack on Russian Soldier: A video message from the 97th Battalion of the 60th Mechanized Brigade, showing a drone strike on a Russian soldier.
New Fundraising Campaign: A new fundraising campaign for an evacuation vehicle for the 3rd Mechanized Battalion of the Separate Presidential Brigade named after Bohdan Khmelnytsky.
5 Brigade Raises Russian Flag Over Kurakhovskaya TPP: Russian forces, specifically the 5th Brigade, have reportedly raised the Russian flag over the Kurakhovskaya Thermal Power Plant, indicating a significant advance in the Kurakhove direction. This marks the completion of the defeat of the main Ukrainian forces in the industrial zone of Kurakhove, with the final clearing of the outskirts underway.
Drone Attacks Continue: New reports indicate continued drone activity, with multiple drones targeting Zaporizhzhia. Ukrainian air defenses are actively engaging these drones.
Russian Offensive Operations: The video from the "Operational Z" Telegram channel, along with the accompanying text, suggests that Russian forces, specifically the "Siberian fighters of Vega," are actively engaged in offensive operations towards Pokrovsk. The mention of the destruction of NATO armored vehicles and Ukrainian forces indicates the intensity of the fighting and the strategic importance of this direction.

Updated Situation

The military situation in Ukraine remains highly dynamic, with significant developments in the past few hours. Russian forces have made a notable advance in Kurakhove, capturing the Kurakhovskaya Thermal Power Plant and raising the Russian flag over it. This signifies a major gain for Russian forces in the Donetsk region and further solidifies their control over the city.

Drone warfare continues to be a prominent feature of the conflict, with reports of multiple drones targeting Zaporizhzhia. Ukrainian air defenses are actively engaging these threats, highlighting the ongoing air battle over Ukraine.

Russian forces are continuing their offensive operations towards Pokrovsk, with reports of intense fighting and the destruction of Ukrainian equipment. The situation in this area remains fluid, with both sides engaged in heavy combat.

The new information regarding the capture of the Kurakhovskaya TPP and the ongoing offensive towards Pokrovsk indicates a further escalation of the conflict in the Donetsk region. Russian forces are making significant gains, and the situation for Ukrainian forces in this area is becoming increasingly precarious.

The continued drone attacks on Zaporizhzhia highlight the persistent threat to Ukrainian cities and infrastructure. Ukrainian air defenses are actively working to counter these attacks, but the sheer number of drones being deployed poses a significant challenge.

The overall situation remains highly volatile, with ongoing fighting, significant casualties, and a high risk of further escalation. The strategic implications of the conflict continue to evolve, with potential impacts on regional and global stability. The capture of the Kurakhovskaya TPP and the offensive towards Pokrovsk represent a significant shift in the balance of power in the Donetsk region, and the coming days will likely see further intense fighting as both sides seek to consolidate their positions.

Situation Report