Major Military Situation Updates - December 21, 2024, 16:25 UTC
Intensified Drone Warfare and Attacks on Russian Territory
Drone Activity:
Reports of 18 drones moving in a "snake-like" formation, with the head near Cherkasy, moving southwest.
One drone from Chernihiv Oblast moving into Kyiv Oblast.
New groups of hostile drones detected in Sumy Oblast, moving southwest.
Drones reported in the southern and northern parts of Kyiv Oblast, moving west.
Drones detected in Sumy Oblast heading towards Poltava Oblast.
Multiple drone groups observed in Cherkasy Oblast, moving southwest.
Multiple drone groups observed in Poltava Oblast, moving southwest.
Drone threat reported in Kirovohrad Oblast from Cherkasy Oblast.
Air Raid Alerts:
Air raid alerts lifted for Kyiv city but remain in effect for Kyiv Oblast.
Attacks in Russia:
Kazan: Ukrainian drones reportedly attacked Kazan, hitting a 37-story residential complex ("Lazurnye Nebesa"), a 23-story residential complex ("Manhattan"), and a five-story building on Klara Tsetkin Street. This is the first reported instance of Ukrainian drones reaching this distance. Russian authorities claim some drones carried unexploded ordnance. Russian President Putin was reportedly informed of the drone attack and is in communication with Rustam Minnikhanov, the head of the Republic of Tatarstan. All Kazan operational services are working efficiently. Three of eight drones were aimed at military-industrial complex (MIC) objects.
St. Petersburg: Series of explosions and arson attacks reported. A Sberbank branch was targeted, and an individual was filmed setting fire to a Russian post office. Reports suggest these actions are carried out by individuals influenced or coerced by Ukrainian call centers. Two elderly women were reportedly arrested for attempting to set fire to a police car.
Leningrad Oblast: A Russian citizen was forced by unknown individuals to set fire to a post office by telephone.
Ground Engagements and Frontline Developments
Kursk Region:
32 combat clashes reported, with 19 in the Kursk region where Ukrainian forces are repelling Russian attacks.
55 engagements reported on December 19.
Intense fighting continues. Russian forces made progress in Kruhlenke and Cherkasskaya Konopelka.
Ukrainian forces report repelling 19 Russian attacks as of 16:00 UTC on December 21.
A Russian soldier named Egor Guzenko, known as "Thirteenth," who previously conflicted with "Akhmat" forces, has been deployed to the Kursk region.
Donetsk Region:
Russian forces control approximately 80% of Kurakhove, with fierce battles ongoing.
Advances in Toretsk and near Dzerzhinsk, with partial dislodgment of Ukrainian forces from a refractory plant in Chasov Yar.
Russian forces advancing southwest of Velyka Novosilka, reaching Storozheve and Neskuchne, forming a new "pocket."
Other Areas:
Rostov Region: Massive attack overnight on December 19, with 84 Ukrainian drones shot down, 36 over Rostov. Air defense systems activated throughout the night. One person injured near Rostov, and houses damaged in the Kamensk district. Novoshakhtinsk oil refinery set on fire due to a drone attack, but the fire was extinguished.
Eastern Front (December 19): Russian forces lost control of Trudove and Uspenovka. Advanced within 3 km of the Konstantinopol-Kurakhovo road, capturing Zelenovka. Continued expansion of control near Pokrovsk, capturing Novyi Trud and advancing north of Pushkino.
Vremivka Direction (December 19): Russian forces achieved success in Novyi Komar. Attacks near Velyka Novosilka and Storozheve. Advance north of Nesterianka on the Zaporizhzhia front.
Northern Front (December 19): "Sever" group engaged in fierce battles. Ukrainian counterattacks repelled using NATO armored vehicles and HIMARS MLRS. Airstrikes and artillery used by Russian Aerospace Forces and Tornado-S MLRS.
Kupyansk Direction: A Leopard tank was destroyed.
Other Significant Developments
Propaganda and Disinformation: Reports of the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) allegedly coercing Russian citizens into acts of sabotage.
Alleged Assassination Attempt: Reports of an alleged assassination attempt on Lieutenant General Igor Kirillov, head of the Russian Chemical, Biological, and Radiological Protection troops.
Casualties and Losses: Reports of significant losses on both sides. Ukrainian General Staff reported the destruction of 2,200 Russian soldiers in the past 24 hours. Civilian casualties due to shelling and drone strikes.
Negotiations: Discussions between US and Ukrainian officials to find a way to end the war. US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan stated that Kyiv will be in a weakened position in negotiations with Russia if the US stops providing aid.
NATO Involvement: NATO reportedly took over the coordination of military aid to Ukraine from the US. Discussions about sending European troops to Ukraine in the event of a ceasefire or peace agreement.
Information Warfare: Both sides actively engaged in information warfare, using reports and videos to shape public perception and demoralize the enemy.
Explosions in Moscow and St. Petersburg: Several explosions were reported in Moscow and St. Petersburg, with firecrackers detonated in shopping centers and a post office set on fire.
Diplomatic Statements: Russian Permanent Representative to the UN, Nebenzya, criticized NATO's "double standards" regarding cooperation with North Korea. US Secretary of State Blinken claimed that China's support for Russia is hindering relations with European countries. Polish President Duda mentioned the possibility of sending Polish troops to Ukraine.
"Canadian Center for the Development of Democracy in Russia": This organization was declared "undesirable" in Russia after allegedly investigating Russian agents in Canada.
Air Raid Alert in Kyiv: An air raid alert was issued for Kyiv on December 21, 15:44 UTC, with reports of a high-speed target approaching from Chernihiv Oblast. The alert was lifted at 15:56 UTC.
Statement by Maria Zakharova: Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova compared Ukrainian President Zelensky to Osama bin Laden.
Report from the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine: The General Staff commented on an article in The Guardian about the transfer of air defense personnel to the infantry, stating that the information was incorrect.
Statement by the Polish Minister of National Defense: The Polish Minister of National Defense called the placement of UPA flags on Polish Rosomak armored personnel carriers a provocation.
Statement by Dmitry Peskov: Dmitry Peskov stated that Putin receives reports from military commanders twice a day. He did not confirm or deny whether the Prime Minister of Slovakia might visit Moscow. He also stated that the US is an unfriendly country whose missiles are hitting Russia.
Poem by "Starshe Eddy": A poem was published criticizing Ukrainians and their behavior.
Expenditure on Food Delivery in Russia: Russians spent a record 650 billion rubles on food delivery from restaurants in 2024.
Emergency Situation in Kerch: An emergency situation was declared in Kerch due to a fuel oil spill.
Meeting of the Coordination Council of Rectors in Zaporizhzhia: A meeting was held to discuss the development of higher education in the region.
Cultural Event in Grozny: The 16th final of the Republican TV festival-competition "Sinmekhallash" (Spiritual Values) was held in Grozny.
Arson in the Leningrad Region: Unknown individuals set fire to a post office in the Leningrad region.
Statement by the US Republican Party: The US Republican Party proposed recognizing Somaliland.
Discussion in the Federation Council: The Federation Council committees discussed the candidacy of Igor Krasnov for the position of Prosecutor General on December 19.
Detainment for Treason: A resident of Khakassia was detained on suspicion of treason for financing the Ukrainian Armed Forces.
Cossack Participation in the Special Military Operation: 43,000 Cossacks have participated in the special military operation, with over 4,500 receiving state awards.
Naval Activity in the Black, Azov, and Mediterranean Seas: No enemy warships in the Black and Azov Seas. Six enemy warships in the Mediterranean Sea, three armed with Kalibr cruise missiles.
Passage through the Kerch Strait: One vessel traveled through the Kerch Strait towards the Black Sea, and five towards the Azov Sea. Two continued towards the Bosporus Strait.
Russia Reinforces Army and Uses Conscripts in Ukraine: The ISW reports that Russia is intensifying its army recruitment and coercing conscripts into signing contracts to participate in the war in Ukraine.
Territorial Changes on December 18: A Russian source reported a net gain of 15.68 km² in the "KTO Zone" on December 18, with no changes in the "SVO Zone."
Assassination Attempt on General Kirillov: A suspect in the assassination attempt on Lieutenant General Igor Kirillov confessed, claiming recruitment by Ukrainian special services.
Britain Announces Aid Package: Britain announced a new military aid package for Ukraine valued at 286 million hryvnias.
Zelensky-Rutte Meeting: President Zelensky discussed strengthening Ukraine's air defense and security guarantees with NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte.
Zelensky-Macron Meeting: President Zelensky discussed strengthening Ukraine's position against Russian aggression with President Macron. France will prepare an additional brigade for the Ukrainian army.
Train Collision in Russia: Two people died in a train collision near Murmansk, Russia.
Propaganda Video: A video surfaced showing a Ukrainian journalist in Pokrovsk being interrupted by Russian artillery fire.
Alleged Assassination Attempt: Reports of an alleged assassination attempt on a high-ranking Russian official, with suggestions of Ukrainian involvement.
North Korean Troops: Reports of North Korean troops participating in the conflict, suffering losses, and mistakenly firing upon Chechen forces.
Destruction of "Leopard" Tanks:
A video was published showing the destruction of a Leopard tank by soldiers of the Group of Forces "West" in the Kharkiv region.
A video was published showing the destruction of a Leopard 2A4 tank by soldiers of the Central Military District using FPV drones and a "Lancet" loitering munition in the Pokrovsk direction.
A video was published showing the destruction of a Leopard 1A5 tank by a UAV operator of the 25th Brigade "Udai" near Kupyansk.
A video was published showing the destruction of a Leopard 2A6 tank by an FPV drone crew in the Kursk region.
A video was published showing the destruction of a Leopard 2A4 tank by an FPV drone in the area of Andreevka.
A video was published showing the destruction of a Leopard 1A5 tank.
Strategic Implications
The intensification of drone warfare and the extension of Ukrainian drone operations into Russia are likely to lead to increased Russian air defense efforts and potential retaliatory strikes.
The ongoing ground engagements in the Donetsk and Kursk regions suggest a continued Russian offensive push, with the potential for further territorial gains.
The reported attacks in Russia, if confirmed to be orchestrated by Ukraine, could lead to a further escalation of the conflict and increased internal security measures within Russia.
The information warfare dimension of the conflict is becoming increasingly important, with both sides using propaganda and disinformation to influence public opinion and demoralize the enemy.
The potential involvement of European troops in Ukraine, even in a post-ceasefire scenario, could significantly alter the dynamics of the conflict and lead to a broader internationalization of the war.
The discussions between US and Ukrainian officials regarding a potential end to the war highlight the complex geopolitical considerations at play and the potential for a negotiated settlement, although the conditions for such a settlement remain highly uncertain.
Conclusion
The situation remains highly volatile and fluid, with the potential for rapid developments and escalations. The coming days and weeks will be crucial in determining the trajectory of the conflict. The intensification of drone warfare, attacks on Russian territory, and ongoing ground engagements indicate a significant escalation in the conflict.
