Situation Report

Updating the Situation based on new messages:

The situation has evolved significantly with the new messages received between 15:59:12 and 15:59:11 UTC on December 21, 2024. The key updates are:

1. Increased Drone Activity: There are now reports of 18 drones moving in a "snake-like" formation, with the head of this formation near Cherkasy, moving southwest. One drone from Chernihiv Oblast is reported to be moving into Kyiv Oblast.
2. Air Raid Alerts Lifted: Air raid alerts have been lifted for Kyiv city, but they remain in effect for Kyiv Oblast.
3. Reported Attacks in Russia: Multiple attacks have been reported in Russia:
   • Kazan: Ukrainian drones reportedly attacked Kazan, with one hitting a 37-story residential complex ("Lazurnye Nebesa") and another hitting a 23-story residential complex ("Manhattan") as well as a five-story building on Klara Tsetkin Street. This marks a significant escalation, as it is the first reported instance of Ukrainian drones reaching such a distance. Russian authorities claim that some of the drones carried unexploded ordnance, which is being dealt with.
   • St. Petersburg: A series of explosions and arson attacks have been reported in St. Petersburg. A Sberbank branch was targeted, and an individual was filmed setting fire to a Russian post office. Reports suggest these actions are being carried out by individuals influenced or coerced by Ukrainian call centers. Two elderly women were reportedly arrested for attempting to set fire to a police car.
4. Military Engagements: The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reported 32 combat clashes on the front lines, with 19 of them taking place in the Kursk region, where Ukrainian forces are repelling Russian attacks.
5. Propaganda and Disinformation: There are reports and videos circulating, including one from "Operatsiia Z: Voenkory Russkoi Vesny," alleging that the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) is using threats and manipulation to coerce Russian citizens into committing acts of sabotage, such as setting fires.
6. Alleged Assassination Attempt: Reports suggest an alleged assassination attempt on Lieutenant General Igor Kirillov, head of the Russian Chemical, Biological, and Radiological Protection troops, with Ukrainian sources claiming responsibility.

Updated Situation:

As of December 21, 2024, 16:00 UTC, the military situation in Ukraine is characterized by intense drone warfare, ongoing ground engagements, and a significant escalation in attacks targeting Russian territory.

Key Developments:

• Drone Warfare: Drone activity has intensified significantly, with reports of multiple drones across various regions of Ukraine and Russia. Ukrainian drones have reportedly reached as far as Kazan, marking a notable extension of their operational range. Russian forces are actively employing drones as well, with reports of "Geran" drones being used to deplete Ukrainian air defenses.

• Ground Engagements: Fighting continues on multiple fronts, with significant Russian advances reported in the Donetsk and Kursk regions:

  • Donetsk: Russian forces control approximately 80% of Kurakhove, with fierce battles ongoing. They have made advances in Toretsk and near Dzerzhinsk, and have partially dislodged Ukrainian forces from a refractory plant in Chasov Yar. Russian forces are also advancing southwest of Velyka Novosilka, reaching Storozheve and Neskuchne, and forming a new "pocket."
  • Kursk: Intense fighting continues, with 55 engagements reported. Russian forces have made progress in Kruhlenke and Cherkasskaya Konopelka. A HIMARS strike with cluster munitions reportedly resulted in heavy losses for groups of North Korean special forces near Mala Loknia and Kruhlenke.

• Escalation in Russia: The reported drone attacks on Kazan and the series of explosions and arson attacks in St. Petersburg represent a significant escalation, bringing the conflict deeper into Russian territory. These incidents are likely to increase tensions and may lead to retaliatory actions by Russia.

• Information Warfare: Both sides are actively engaged in information warfare, with reports and videos being used to shape public perception and demoralize the enemy. The allegations of Ukrainian coercion of Russian citizens to commit sabotage are particularly noteworthy and, if true, represent a new tactic in the conflict.

• Casualties and Losses: Reports continue to indicate significant losses on both sides. The Ukrainian General Staff reported the destruction of 2,200 Russian soldiers in the past 24 hours. There are also reports of civilian casualties due to shelling and drone strikes.

• Negotiations: Discussions are reportedly taking place between US and Ukrainian officials to find a way to end the war. US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan stated that Kyiv will be in a weakened position in negotiations with Russia if the US stops providing aid.

• NATO Involvement: NATO has reportedly taken over the coordination of military aid to Ukraine from the US. Discussions are reportedly taking place in Brussels about sending European troops to Ukraine in the event of a ceasefire or peace agreement.

Strategic Implications:

• The intensification of drone warfare and the extension of Ukrainian drone operations into Russia are likely to lead to increased Russian air defense efforts and potential retaliatory strikes.
• The ongoing ground engagements in the Donetsk and Kursk regions suggest a continued Russian offensive push, with the potential for further territorial gains.
• The reported attacks in Russia, if confirmed to be orchestrated by Ukraine, could lead to a further escalation of the conflict and increased internal security measures within Russia.
• The information warfare dimension of the conflict is becoming increasingly important, with both sides using propaganda and disinformation to influence public opinion and demoralize the enemy.
• The potential involvement of European troops in Ukraine, even in a post-ceasefire scenario, could significantly alter the dynamics of the conflict and lead to a broader internationalization of the war.
• The discussions between US and Ukrainian officials regarding a potential end to the war highlight the complex geopolitical considerations at play and the potential for a negotiated settlement, although the conditions for such a settlement remain highly uncertain.

The situation remains highly volatile and fluid, with the potential for rapid developments and escalations. The coming days and weeks will be crucial in determining the trajectory of the conflict and the potential for either further intensification or a move towards de-escalation and negotiations.