Major Military Situation Updates - December 19, 2024, 06:32 UTC

Rostov Region Under Heavy Attack

• Extensive Drone and Missile Strikes: The Rostov region was subjected to a massive attack overnight, with 84 Ukrainian drones shot down, 36 over Rostov. This marks a significant escalation in the scale and intensity of attacks on the region.
• Air Defense Activation: Air defense systems were actively engaged throughout the night, protecting Taganrog, Bataysk, Rostov, Shakht, Kamensk, Millerovo, and Novoshakhtinsk.
• Damage and Casualties: One person was injured near Rostov. Houses were damaged in the Kamensk district. The Novoshakhtinsk oil refinery was set on fire due to a drone attack, though the fire has been extinguished.
• Ukrainian ATACMS Usage: The Russian MoD reports this attack is in retaliation for the Ukrainian use of ATACMS missiles near Taganrog.
• Drone Attacks: Ukrainian forces report shooting down 45 out of 85 drones launched by Russian forces. 40 additional drones were reported as "locationally lost" due to defensive measures. Drones were reported over multiple regions, including Kharkiv, Pavlohrad, Pokrovsk, Dnipropetrovsk, Zaporizhzhia, Cherkasy, Sumy, Poltava, Konotop, Kyiv, and Chernihiv. New groups of drones were reported entering Sumy Oblast from the Kursk region. Drones were shot down in Sumy and Khmelnytskyi Oblasts.

Eastern Front

Kurakhove and Pokrovsk

• Loss of Territory: Ukrainian forces have lost control of Trudove and Uspenovka.
• Advance to Konstantinopol-Kurakhovo Road: Russian forces have advanced to within 3 km of the Konstantinopol-Kurakhovo road, capturing Zelenovka.
• Pokrovsk Advance: Russian forces continue to expand their zone of control near Pokrovsk, capturing Novyi Trud and advancing north of Pushkino.
• Kryvyi Rih and Nikopolshchyna Attacked: Overnight, Russian forces launched a missile attack on Kryvyi Rih, damaging infrastructure, two nine-story buildings, a hospital, a school, a store, and ten cars. One of the boilers was stopped in Kryvyi Rih. Traffic was restored, and the overhead wires were repaired. Russian forces also attacked Nikopolshchyna 15 times throughout the day using heavy artillery and kamikaze drones, damaging five private houses and two outbuildings.

Vremivka Direction

• Success in Novyi Komar: Russian forces have achieved success in Novyi Komar. Reports indicate that the clearing of Novyi Komar was ongoing as of the previous evening.
• Attacks on Velyka Novosilka and Storozheve: Russian forces are conducting attacks near Velyka Novosilka and Storozheve.
• Advance North of Nesterianka: Russian forces have advanced north of Nesterianka on the Zaporizhzhia front and captured a Ukrainian stronghold.

Northern Front

Kursk Region

• Intense Fighting: The "Sever" group of forces is engaged in fierce battles along the entire front line.
• Advances in Kruhlenke and Cherkasskaya Konopelka: Russian assault groups are advancing in Kruhlenke and have achieved success in Cherkasskaya Konopelka.
• Ukrainian Counterattacks Repelled: Ukrainian forces launched four counterattacks during the night and day, using NATO armored vehicles and HIMARS MLRS, but were unsuccessful.
• Airstrikes and Artillery: Russian Aerospace Forces and Tornado-S MLRS carried out strikes on Ukrainian forces near Sverdlikovo, Martynovka, and Belovody.
• Ukrainian Reinforcements: Ukrainian forces are reportedly transferring additional reserves to the Kremenna area in response to increased Russian activity.

Kharkiv Region

• Shelling in Tsyrkuny: Four people were injured in Tsyrkuny due to enemy shelling.

Other Key Developments

• Chasov Yar: Russian paratroopers continue to engage Ukrainian forces in Chasov Yar.
• Air Defense: In addition to the drones shot down over Rostov, 21 were shot down in Bryansk, 14 in Belgorod, 6 in Voronezh, 3 in Kursk, 3 in Tambov, and 1 in Krasnodar Krai.
• Kamchatka Aircraft Incident: An An-2 aircraft disappeared from radar in Kamchatka. A rescue operation is underway.
• Train Collision in Murmansk: The death toll from a train collision in the Murmansk region has risen to two. 31 people were injured, including five children. 14 people were hospitalized, 4 of them in serious condition. The train driver and assistant driver have been detained.
• Extremist Group Neutralized in Kyrgyzstan: 22 members of the "Hizb ut-Tahrir" extremist group were arrested in Kyrgyzstan.
• Israeli Airstrikes on Yemen: The Israeli army confirmed launching airstrikes on Yemen.
• Discussion on Russian Prosecutor General: The Federation Council committees will discuss the candidacy of Igor Krasnov for the position of Prosecutor General on December 19.
• Air Raid Alert: An air raid alert has been issued for Kyiv. The alert in the Zaporizhzhia region has been lifted.
• Detainment for Treason: A resident of Khakassia has been detained on suspicion of treason for financing the Ukrainian Armed Forces.
• Cossack Participation in Special Operation: 43,000 Cossacks have participated in the special military operation, with over 4,500 receiving state awards.
• Naval Activity in the Black, Azov, and Mediterranean Seas: There are no enemy warships in the Black and Azov Seas. Six enemy warships are in the Mediterranean Sea, three of which are armed with Kalibr cruise missiles.
• Passage through the Kerch Strait: One vessel traveled through the Kerch Strait towards the Black Sea and five vessels towards the Azov Sea. Two of these continued towards the Bosporus Strait.
• Russia Reinforces Army and Uses Conscripts in Ukraine: The ISW reports that Russia is intensifying its army recruitment and coercing conscripts into signing contracts to participate in the war in Ukraine.
• Territorial Changes on December 18: A Russian source reported a net gain of 15.68 km² in the "KTO Zone" on December 18, with no changes in the "SVO Zone."
• Assassination Attempt on General Kirillov: A suspect in the assassination attempt on Lieutenant General Igor Kirillov has reportedly confessed. The suspect, a citizen of Uzbekistan, claims to have been recruited by Ukrainian special services. The detonation was triggered remotely from Dnipro, Ukraine.
• Britain Announces Aid Package: Britain announced a new military aid package for Ukraine valued at 286 million hryvnias.
• Zelensky-Rutte Meeting: President Zelensky discussed strengthening Ukraine's air defense and security guarantees with NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte.

Analysis and Strategic Implications

The intense attack on the Rostov region signifies a major escalation in the conflict, likely a response to Ukrainian ATACMS usage. The widespread activation of air defense systems underscores the severity of the situation. This development could lead to increased military activity and heightened tensions in the region. The successful interception of 84 drones overnight demonstrates the effectiveness of Russian air defenses but also highlights the scale of the Ukrainian drone threat. The attack on the Novoshakhtinsk oil refinery is particularly significant, demonstrating the vulnerability of critical infrastructure deep within Russian territory.

Russian forces continue to make gains on the Eastern Front, particularly near Kurakhove and Pokrovsk. The reported loss of Trudove and Uspenovka by Ukrainian forces, coupled with the Russian advance towards the Konstantinopol-Kurakhovo road, further jeopardizes the Ukrainian position in the area. The expanding zone of control near Pokrovsk indicates a concerted effort to push back Ukrainian defenses. The attacks on Kryvyi Rih and Nikopolshchyna demonstrate the ongoing threat to civilian infrastructure and population centers.

On the Vremivka direction, the success in Novyi Komar and the attacks on Velyka Novosilka and Storozheve demonstrate continued Russian pressure in this sector. The advance north of Nesterianka on the Zaporizhzhia front suggests a potential shift in the frontline.

In the Kursk region, the intense fighting and reported advances in Kruhlenke and Cherkasskaya Konopelka highlight the ongoing efforts to push back Ukrainian forces. The repelled Ukrainian counterattacks and the use of airstrikes and artillery indicate a strong Russian defensive posture. The Ukrainian decision to reinforce the Kremenna area indicates their concern about the increasing Russian activity in the region.

The disappearance of the An-2 aircraft in Kamchatka and the train collision in Murmansk, while not directly related to the conflict in Ukraine, highlight logistical and safety challenges in Russia. These incidents could potentially impact military operations and resource allocation.

The neutralization of an extremist group in Kyrgyzstan demonstrates ongoing security challenges in the region. The Israeli airstrikes on Yemen represent a further expansion of the conflict in the Middle East.

The discussion on the candidacy of Igor Krasnov for the position of Russian Prosecutor General indicates ongoing political developments within Russia. The air raid alert in Kyiv and the lifting of the alert in Zaporizhzhia suggest continued aerial threats and defensive measures.

The confirmation of no enemy warships in the Black and Azov Seas, with a concentration in the Mediterranean, suggests a potential shift in naval strategy. The reported reinforcement of the Russian army and the use of conscripts in Ukraine, as well as the procurement of drones for Ukrainian forces, indicate an intensification of military efforts on both sides.

The reported territorial gains by Russian forces suggest a dynamic and evolving battlefield situation. The confession of the suspect in the assassination attempt on General Kirillov, if true, represents a significant escalation in the conflict. The alleged involvement of Ukrainian special services and the use of a remotely detonated bomb highlight the potential for covert operations and targeted killings.

The announcement of a new British aid package for Ukraine and the Zelensky-Rutte meeting demonstrate continued international support for Ukraine.

The situation remains highly volatile, with the attack on the Rostov region, the ongoing fighting on the Eastern and Northern fronts, and the broader geopolitical developments being key factors to monitor. These developments could have significant implications for the ongoing conflict and the broader geopolitical landscape. The destruction of a significant number of Ukrainian drones and the continued fighting on multiple fronts indicate that the conflict is far from over and that both sides are actively engaged in military operations. The successful interception of a large number of drones demonstrates the effectiveness of Ukrainian air defenses. This will likely influence the strategic decisions of both sides regarding the use of drones and air defense systems in future operations.