Major Military Situation Updates - December 19, 2024, 06:02 UTC

Rostov Region Under Heavy Attack

Extensive Drone and Missile Strikes: The Rostov region was subjected to a massive attack overnight and throughout the day, with over 30 drones and 13 missiles reported initially. This was later updated to 36 drones. This marks a significant escalation in the scale and intensity of attacks on the region. A total of 84 Ukrainian drones were shot down overnight, with 36 over Rostov.
Air Defense Activation: Air defense systems were actively engaged throughout the day and night, protecting Taganrog, Bataysk, Rostov, Shakht, Kamensk, Millerovo, and Novoshakhtinsk. This widespread activation indicates a coordinated and extensive attack across the region.
Damage and Casualties: One person was injured due to falling drone debris near Rostov. Houses were damaged in the Kamensk district. Four people were injured in Tsyrkuny due to enemy shelling.
Novoshakhtinsk Oil Refinery: A fire broke out at the Novoshakhtinsk oil refinery as a result of a drone attack. The fire has now been extinguished. The scale of the fire suggests a significant industrial target and a successful strike.
Ukrainian ATACMS Usage: The Russian MoD reports that this attack is in retaliation for the Ukrainian use of ATACMS missiles near Taganrog.

Eastern Front

Kurakhove and Pokrovsk

Loss of Territory: Ukrainian forces have reportedly lost control of Trudove and Uspenovka.
Advance to Konstantinopol-Kurakhovo Road: Russian forces have advanced to within 3 km of the Konstantinopol-Kurakhovo road, capturing Zelenovka.
Pokrovsk Advance: Russian forces continue to expand their zone of control near Pokrovsk, with a broad offensive underway. They have captured Novyi Trud and are advancing north of Pushkino.
Kryvyi Rih and Nikopolshchyna Attacked: Overnight, Russian forces launched a missile attack on Kryvyi Rih, damaging infrastructure, two nine-story buildings, a hospital, a school, a store, and ten cars. Russian forces also attacked Nikopolshchyna 15 times throughout the day using heavy artillery and kamikaze drones, damaging five private houses and two outbuildings. One of the boilers was stopped in Kryvyi Rih as a result of the attack. Traffic was restored and the overhead wires were repaired.

Vremivka Direction

Success in Novyi Komar: Russian forces have achieved success in Novyi Komar, having previously destroyed a crossing near Novoocheretuvate. However, reports indicate that the clearing of Novyi Komar was still ongoing as of the previous evening.
Attacks on Velyka Novosilka and Storozheve: Russian forces are conducting attacks near Velyka Novosilka and Storozheve.
Advance North of Nesterianka: Russian forces have advanced north of Nesterianka on the Zaporizhzhia front and captured a Ukrainian stronghold.

Northern Front

Kursk Region

Intense Fighting: The "Sever" group of forces is engaged in fierce battles along the entire front line.
Advances in Kruhlenke and Cherkasskaya Konopelka: Russian assault groups are reportedly advancing in Kruhlenke and have achieved success in Cherkasskaya Konopelka.
Ukrainian Counterattacks Repelled: Ukrainian forces, having accumulated reserves, launched four counterattacks during the night and day, using NATO armored vehicles and HIMARS MLRS, but were unsuccessful.
Airstrikes and Artillery: Russian Aerospace Forces and Tornado-S MLRS carried out strikes on Ukrainian forces near Sverdlikovo, Martynovka, and Belovody.
Ukrainian Soldiers Face Severe Punishment: Four Ukrainian soldiers captured in the Kursk region face up to 24 years in prison for terrorism-related charges.
Ukrainian Reinforcements: Ukrainian forces are reportedly transferring additional reserves to the Kremenna area in response to increased Russian activity.

Kharkiv Region

Shelling in Tsyrkuny: Four people were injured in Tsyrkuny due to enemy shelling.

Other Key Developments

Chasov Yar: Russian paratroopers continue to engage Ukrainian forces in Chasov Yar.
Drone Activity: A new drone was reported near Kharkiv, moving towards Pavlohrad. 8 drones are reported to be moving from Kharkiv Oblast towards Pavlohrad. 1 drone flew past Pokrovsk heading south. 1 drone moved from Dnipropetrovsk Oblast to Zaporizhzhia Oblast, heading south. 1 drone from Bilhorod entered Kharkiv Oblast, heading towards Kharkiv. 4 drones are east of Cherkasy, heading south. 5 drones are in Sumy Oblast heading towards Poltava. 1 drone flew near Konotop, heading west. 1 drone is in the east of Kyiv Oblast. Poltava - a UAV from the south in the direction of the city. An attack drone was detected coming from Chernihiv towards Kyiv. New groups of enemy drones are entering Sumy Oblast from the Kursk region, moving in a west/southwest direction. Ukrainian drones have been spotted targeting Russian military facilities in Russian territory. Ukrainian forces report destroying a Russian "Plastun-3000" electronic warfare station and damaging a Russian command post with drones. Ukrainian forces successfully destroyed an enemy drone with an aerial ram. Ukrainian forces used drones to destroy a Russian command post near the Toretsk mine.
Air Defense: 84 Ukrainian drones were shot down overnight by Russian air defenses across multiple regions, including 36 in Rostov, 21 in Bryansk, 14 in Belgorod, 6 in Voronezh, 3 in Kursk, 3 in Tambov, and 1 in Krasnodar Krai. In Sumy Oblast, 7 "Shahed" drones were shot down overnight, and in Khmelnytskyi Oblast, 2 enemy drones were shot down.
Kharkiv Region: A Russian drone unit reportedly disrupted Ukrainian plans in the Kharkiv region.
Kamchatka Aircraft Incident: An An-2 aircraft carrying three people and commercial cargo disappeared from radar in Kamchatka. An emergency landing signal has been received, and a rescue operation is underway.
Train Collision in Murmansk: The death toll from a train collision in the Murmansk region has risen to two. 31 people were injured, including five children. 14 people were hospitalized, 4 of them in serious condition. The incident involved a passenger train traveling from Murmansk to St. Petersburg and a freight train. The investigation is ongoing, with the train driver and assistant driver detained on suspicion of leaving the cabin.
Extremist Group Neutralized in Kyrgyzstan: 22 members of the "Hizb ut-Tahrir" extremist group, including its leaders, were arrested in Kyrgyzstan.
Israeli Airstrikes on Yemen: The Israeli army confirmed launching airstrikes on Yemen, further escalating tensions in the Middle East.
Discussion on Russian Prosecutor General: The Federation Council committees will discuss the candidacy of Igor Krasnov for the position of Prosecutor General on December 19, as proposed by the President of the Russian Federation.
Air Raid Alert in Kyiv: An air raid alert has been issued for Kyiv. The alert has now ended.
Air Raid Alert Lifted in Zaporizhzhia: The air raid alert in the Zaporizhzhia region has been lifted.
Detainment for Treason: A resident of Khakassia has been detained on suspicion of treason for financing the Ukrainian Armed Forces.
Cossack Participation in Special Operation: 43,000 Cossacks have participated in the special military operation, with over 4,500 receiving state awards.
Military Counterintelligence Day: December 19th is celebrated as Military Counterintelligence Day in Russia.
Ukrainian Drone Attacks: 84 Ukrainian drones were shot down overnight across various regions of Russia.
Naval Activity in the Black, Azov, and Mediterranean Seas: Ukrainian and Russian sources confirm that there are no enemy warships in the Black and Azov Seas. Six enemy warships are in the Mediterranean Sea, three of which are armed with Kalibr cruise missiles.
Passage through the Kerch Strait: One vessel traveled through the Kerch Strait towards the Black Sea and five vessels towards the Azov Sea. Two of these continued towards the Bosporus Strait.
Russia Reinforces Army and Uses Conscripts in Ukraine: The ISW reports that Russia is intensifying its army recruitment and coercing conscripts into signing contracts to participate in the war in Ukraine. This is likely to generate more assault forces to maintain the current offensive tempo.
Celebration of the 80th Separate Air Assault Brigade: The Ukrainian Airborne Assault Forces Command congratulated the 80th Separate Air Assault Brigade on its anniversary, highlighting its combat successes and contributions to Ukraine's defense.
Territorial Changes on December 18: A Russian source reported a net gain of 15.68 km² in the "KTO Zone" on December 18, with no changes in the "SVO Zone."
Drone Procurement for Ukrainian Forces: A Ukrainian unit received drones procured through a fundraising campaign called "Day of the Hundred" by the "Arkhangel Spetsnaz" project, which will be used for reconnaissance and targeting on the Kursk direction.
Assassination Attempt on General Kirillov: A suspect in the assassination attempt on Lieutenant General Igor Kirillov has reportedly confessed. The suspect, a citizen of Uzbekistan, claims to have been recruited by Ukrainian special services and promised $100,000 and relocation to the EU for carrying out the attack. The suspect allegedly placed a bomb on an electric scooter near General Kirillov's residence and used a car-sharing vehicle with a camera to monitor the location. The detonation was triggered remotely from Dnipro, Ukraine.

Analysis and Strategic Implications

The intense attack on the Rostov region, involving a large number of drones and missiles, signifies a major escalation in the conflict and is likely a response to Ukrainian ATACMS usage. The widespread activation of air defense systems and the reported damage and casualty underscore the severity of the situation. This development could lead to increased military activity and heightened tensions in the region. The successful interception of 84 drones overnight demonstrates the effectiveness of Russian air defenses but also highlights the scale of the Ukrainian drone threat. The attack on the Novoshakhtinsk oil refinery is particularly significant, as it demonstrates the vulnerability of critical infrastructure deep within Russian territory. This could have significant implications for Russia's fuel supply and its ability to sustain military operations.

Russian forces continue to make gains on the Eastern Front, particularly near Kurakhove and Pokrovsk. The reported loss of Trudove and Uspenovka by Ukrainian forces, coupled with the Russian advance towards the Konstantinopol-Kurakhovo road, further jeopardizes the Ukrainian position in the area. The expanding zone of control near Pokrovsk indicates a concerted effort to push back Ukrainian defenses. The attacks on Kryvyi Rih and Nikopolshchyna demonstrate the ongoing threat to civilian infrastructure and population centers, as well as highlighting the effectiveness of Ukrainian air defenses in intercepting drones.

On the Vremivka direction, the success in Novyi Komar and the attacks on Velyka Novosilka and Storozheve demonstrate continued Russian pressure in this sector. The advance north of Nesterianka on the Zaporizhzhia front suggests a potential shift in the frontline.

In the Kursk region, the intense fighting and reported advances in Kruhlenke and Cherkasskaya Konopelka highlight the ongoing efforts to push back Ukrainian forces. The repelled Ukrainian counterattacks and the use of airstrikes and artillery indicate a strong Russian defensive posture. The severe charges faced by captured Ukrainian soldiers underscore the seriousness of the situation in the Kursk region. The Ukrainian decision to reinforce the Kremenna area indicates their concern about the increasing Russian activity in the region.

The disappearance of the An-2 aircraft in Kamchatka and the train collision in Murmansk, while not directly related to the conflict in Ukraine, highlight logistical and safety challenges in Russia. These incidents could potentially impact military operations and resource allocation. The train collision, in particular, with its significant number of casualties, raises concerns about infrastructure and safety protocols.

The neutralization of an extremist group in Kyrgyzstan demonstrates ongoing security challenges in the region and the need for international cooperation to counter such threats.

The Israeli airstrikes on Yemen represent a further expansion of the conflict in the Middle East. This development could have broader implications for regional stability and international relations.

The discussion on the candidacy of Igor Krasnov for the position of Russian Prosecutor General indicates ongoing political developments within Russia. This could potentially impact the legal and political landscape surrounding the conflict.

The air raid alert in Kyiv and the lifting of the alert in Zaporizhzhia suggest continued aerial threats and defensive measures. The detainment of a resident of Khakassia for treason underscores the internal security challenges faced by Russia.

The significant participation of Cossacks in the special military operation highlights the mobilization of various groups in support of Russian objectives. The celebration of Military Counterintelligence Day underscores the importance of this branch in the ongoing conflict.

The confirmation of no enemy warships in the Black and Azov Seas, with a concentration in the Mediterranean, suggests a potential shift in naval strategy. This could indicate a focus on other operational areas or a preparation for future actions.

The reported reinforcement of the Russian army and the use of conscripts in Ukraine, as well as the procurement of drones for Ukrainian forces, indicate an intensification of military efforts on both sides.

The reported territorial gains by Russian forces, especially in the context of the broader conflict, suggest a dynamic and evolving battlefield situation.

The confession of the suspect in the assassination attempt on General Kirillov, if true, represents a significant escalation in the conflict. The alleged involvement of Ukrainian special services and the use of a remotely detonated bomb highlight the potential for covert operations and targeted killings. This development could have significant implications for the future conduct of the war and the relationship between Russia and Ukraine.

The situation remains highly volatile, with the attack on the Rostov region, the ongoing fighting on the Eastern and Northern fronts, and the broader geopolitical developments being key factors to monitor. These developments could have significant implications for the ongoing conflict and the broader geopolitical landscape. The destruction of a significant number of Ukrainian drones and the continued fighting on multiple fronts indicate that the conflict is far from over and that both sides are actively engaged in military operations. The successful interception of a large number of drones, particularly in Sumy and Khmelnytskyi Oblasts, demonstrates the effectiveness of Ukrainian air defenses. This will likely influence the strategic decisions of both sides regarding the use of drones and air defense systems in future operations.

Situation Report