Major Military Situation Updates - December 19, 2024, 01:32 UTC

Executive Summary

The conflict in Ukraine is characterized by intense fighting and strategic maneuvering on multiple fronts. Russian forces maintain offensive pressure in the Kurakhove and Pokrovsk directions and are engaged in significant battles across the Toretsk, Velyka Novosilka, and Kursk regions. Ukrainian forces are leveraging drone warfare extensively, achieving a notable strike on the Novoshakhtinsk oil refinery in Russia's Rostov region, potentially targeting the ELOY-AVT-2,5 unit, designed for obtaining liquefied hydrocarbon gases. This attack signifies a major escalation, impacting Russian fuel infrastructure.

Key Updates

Attacks on Russian Territory

• Novoshakhtinsk Oil Refinery Attack: A confirmed drone attack caused a major fire at the Novoshakhtinsk oil refinery in the Rostov region. Ukrainian forces claim responsibility. The ELOY-AVT-2,5 unit may have been targeted. This attack marks a significant escalation, directly impacting Russian fuel infrastructure and demonstrating Ukraine's ability to strike deep within Russian territory. Further footage of the aftermath has been released, corroborating initial reports.
• Drone Attacks on Airfields: Reports indicate drone attacks targeting airfields in Taganrog and Bataysk, with details still emerging.
• Drone Attack in Voronezh: Drone attacks were reported in the Voronezh Oblast.

Drone Warfare

• Extensive Drone Activity: Both sides continue to utilize drones extensively for reconnaissance, targeting, and attacks. Drones remain a significant threat across multiple regions.
• Ukrainian Drone Movements:
  • One drone is near Brovary, approaching Kyiv.
  • One drone is near Bashtanka.
  • One drone moved from Dnipropetrovsk Oblast to Kirovohrad Oblast.
  • Two drones are north of Zhytomyr.
  • Two drones are in the Kremenchuk area.
  • Two drones are in the east of Kyiv Oblast.
  • Three drones are north of Cherkasy.
  • Three drones moved from Poltava Oblast to Cherkasy Oblast.
  • Four drones are north of Pryluky.
  • One drone moved from Chernihiv Oblast to the north of Kyiv Oblast.
  • Two drones are near Konotop.
  • One drone is approaching Starokostiantyniv.
  • One drone is near/over Shepetivka.
  • One drone is near/over Kropyvnytskyi.
  • Two drones are moving from the north of Chernihiv Oblast to the north of Kyiv Oblast.
  • One drone is in the Cherkasy area, moving west.
  • One drone is over Poltava.
  • One drone is in Sumy Oblast, near Shostka.
  • One drone is east of Starokostiantyniv.
  • Two drones are in the Bilotserkva district of Kyiv Oblast.
  • One drone left Kirovohrad Oblast towards Cherkasy Oblast.
  • One drone is in the north of Kyiv Oblast.
  • One drone is east of Myrhorod.
  • One drone is in the north of Chernihiv Oblast.
  • One drone is approaching Kyiv from the Obukhiv direction.
  • One drone is in Khmelnytskyi Oblast.
  • One drone is in Chernihiv Oblast.
  • A group of drones is in the south of Kyiv Oblast.
  • One drone is in Cherkasy Oblast.
  • One drone is in Poltava Oblast.
  • One drone moved from Sumy Oblast to Chernihiv Oblast.
  • One drone is flying from Kyiv Oblast towards Vinnytsia.
  • One drone is in the east of Kyiv Oblast.
  • One drone moved from Chernihiv Oblast towards Briansk.
• Threats Reported: Drone threats are reported for Mykolaiv, Kirovohrad, Poltava, Cherkasy, Kyiv, Chernihiv, Sumy, and Zhytomyr Oblasts. There is also a threat of air attacks in the northeast.

Ground Situation

• Eastern Front:
  • Kurakhove: Russian forces control approximately 80% of Kurakhove, including the city council building and all residential areas. They are attempting to encircle Ukrainian forces.
  • Pokrovsk: Russian forces have advanced to within 2 km of Pokrovsk, capturing several surrounding villages.
  • Toretsk and Chasov Yar: Russian forces are consolidating control in Toretsk and advancing near Dzerzhinsk. In Chasov Yar, they have partially dislodged Ukrainian forces from a refractory plant and captured a Ukrainian stronghold with the support of armored groups.
  • Velyka Novosilka: Russian forces are advancing southwest of Velyka Novosilka and have reached Storozheve and Neskuchne. They are attacking Novyi Komar and Novoocheretuvate.
  • Donetsk Region: Russian forces have occupied Trudove and made advances near Uspenivka, Kurakhove, Zahryzove, Pishchane, Novoolenivka, Volkove, Neskuchne, and Vidrodzhennia.
• Northern Front:
  • Kursk Region: Intense fighting continues, with 55 engagements reported.
  • Sumy Oblast: New groups of enemy drones are entering Sumy Oblast from the Kursk region.
• Southern Front:
  • Zaporizhzhia Oblast: Drone activity continues. The air raid alert has been lifted.
  • Kherson: Kherson is under threat of attack from the north.

Other Developments

• Alleged Assassination Attempt: Reports of an alleged assassination attempt on a high-ranking Russian official.
• North Korean Troops: Reports of North Korean troops participating in the conflict.
• Zelensky-Macron Meeting: France will prepare an additional brigade for the Ukrainian army.
• Zelensky-Rutte Meeting: Discussions on strengthening Ukraine's air defense.
• Diplomatic Statements:
  • Russian UN representative criticized NATO's "double standards" regarding cooperation with North Korea.
  • US Secretary of State Blinken claimed China's support for Russia is hindering Beijing's relations with Europe. Blinken also stated that he is open to productive contacts with Russia concerning Ukraine under a Trump administration, but claims Russia has not shown interest in serious discussions with the current administration.
  • Chinese embassy spokesperson urged Washington to evaluate Beijing's intentions objectively, and stated that China maintains a minimal nuclear arsenal for national security.
  • Polish President mentioned the possibility of sending Polish troops to Ukraine is a "topic for discussion".
  • Maria Zakharova made an ironic statement about a US State Department representative's slip of the tongue.
  • White House National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan suggested the possibility of involving China in negotiations between Ukraine and Russia, an idea previously expressed by President-elect Donald Trump, saying it is "not crazy."
• Train Collision in Russia: Two people died in a train collision near Murmansk.
• Propaganda Video: A Ukrainian journalist in Pokrovsk was interrupted by Russian artillery fire. A video message showed older Russian soldiers preparing for suicidal attacks to divert Ukrainian drone strikes.
• Kryvyi Rih: An attack on Kryvyi Rih damaged central collectors, electricity, trams, and multiple buildings, including a hospital. All individuals are reported alive.
• Launch of Reactors: The launch of reactors on the heavy nuclear missile cruiser "Admiral Nakhimov" is scheduled for the third week of December.
• Military Aid: Belgium has postponed the delivery of F-16 aircraft to Ukraine.

Analysis and Strategic Implications

The Ukrainian drone attack on the Novoshakhtinsk oil refinery represents a significant escalation and a strategic blow to Russian infrastructure. It demonstrates Ukraine's growing capability to conduct long-range strikes and potentially disrupt Russia's fuel supply chain. The attack may also lead to retaliatory strikes and further escalation of the conflict.

Russian advances in Kurakhove and Pokrovsk, alongside the intense fighting in the Kursk region and near Toretsk, underscore the sustained offensive pressure exerted by Russian forces. The reported capture of a Ukrainian stronghold in Chasov Yar by Russian airborne troops, supported by armored groups, highlights the ongoing tactical successes of Russian forces in this area.

The extensive use of drones by both sides highlights the evolving technological nature of the conflict, with drones playing a crucial role in reconnaissance, targeting, and direct attacks.

The situation remains highly volatile, with the Novoshakhtinsk oil refinery attack, ongoing Russian offensives, and the evolving drone warfare landscape being key factors to monitor. The reported damage in Kryvyi Rih also highlights the continued targeting of critical infrastructure. The ironic statement by Maria Zakharova, the postponement of F-16 deliveries to Ukraine, and Jake Sullivan's comments about potentially involving China in negotiations add further complexity to the diplomatic and military landscape.