Major Military Situation Updates - December 19, 2024, 01:02 UTC

Executive Summary

The conflict in Ukraine remains highly dynamic, with significant developments on multiple fronts. Russian forces continue to press their advantage in the Kurakhove and Pokrovsk directions, while also engaging in intense fighting across the Toretsk, Velyka Novosilka, and Kursk regions. Ukrainian forces are actively using drone warfare, achieving a significant strike on the Novoshakhtinsk oil refinery in Russia's Rostov region, potentially targeting the ELOY-AVT-2,5 unit.

Key Updates

Attacks on Russian Territory

• Novoshakhtinsk Oil Refinery Attack: A confirmed drone attack caused a major fire at the Novoshakhtinsk oil refinery in the Rostov region. Ukrainian forces claim responsibility. The ELOY-AVT-2,5 unit, designed for obtaining liquefied hydrocarbon gases, may have been targeted. This marks a significant escalation, directly impacting Russian fuel infrastructure.
• Drone Attacks on Airfields: Reports indicate drone attacks targeting airfields in Taganrog and Bataysk, with details still emerging.
• Drone Attack in Voronezh: Drone attacks were reported in the Voronezh Oblast.

Drone Warfare

• Extensive Drone Activity: Both sides continue to utilize drones extensively for reconnaissance, targeting, and attacks.
• Ukrainian Drone Movements:
  • One drone is near Brovary, approaching Kyiv.
  • One drone is near Bashtanka.
  • One drone moved from Dnipropetrovsk Oblast to Kirovohrad Oblast.
  • Two drones are north of Zhytomyr.
  • Two drones are in the Kremenchuk area.
  • Two drones are in the east of Kyiv Oblast.
  • Three drones are north of Cherkasy.
  • Three drones moved from Poltava Oblast to Cherkasy Oblast.
  • Four drones are north of Pryluky.
  • One drone moved from Chernihiv Oblast to the north of Kyiv Oblast.
  • Two drones are near Konotop.
  • One drone is approaching Starokostiantyniv.
  • One drone is near/over Shepetivka.
  • One drone is near/over Kropyvnytskyi.
  • Two drones are moving from the north of Chernihiv Oblast to the north of Kyiv Oblast.
  • One drone is in the Cherkasy area, moving west.
  • One drone is over Poltava.
  • One drone is in Sumy Oblast, near Shostka.
  • One drone is east of Starokostiantyniv.
  • Two drones are in the Bilotserkva district of Kyiv Oblast.
  • One drone left Kirovohrad Oblast towards Cherkasy Oblast.
  • One drone is in the north of Kyiv Oblast.
  • One drone is east of Myrhorod.
  • One drone is in the north of Chernihiv Oblast.
  • One drone is approaching Kyiv from the Obukhiv direction.
  • One drone is in Khmelnytskyi Oblast.
  • One drone is in Chernihiv Oblast.
  • A group of drones is in the south of Kyiv Oblast.
  • One drone is in Cherkasy Oblast.
  • One drone is in Poltava Oblast.
  • One drone moved from Sumy Oblast to Chernihiv Oblast.
  • One drone is flying from Kyiv Oblast towards Vinnytsia.
  • One drone is in the east of Kyiv Oblast.
  • One drone moved from Chernihiv Oblast towards Briansk.
• Threats Reported: Drone threats are reported for Mykolaiv, Kirovohrad, Poltava, Cherkasy, Kyiv, Chernihiv, Sumy, and Zhytomyr Oblasts. There is also a threat of air attacks in the northeast.

Ground Situation

• Eastern Front:
  • Kurakhove: Russian forces control approximately 80% of Kurakhove, including the city council building and all residential areas. They are attempting to encircle Ukrainian forces.
  • Pokrovsk: Russian forces have advanced to within 2 km of Pokrovsk, capturing several surrounding villages.
  • Toretsk and Chasov Yar: Russian forces are consolidating control in Toretsk and advancing near Dzerzhinsk. In Chasov Yar, they have partially dislodged Ukrainian forces from a refractory plant. Russian forces have reportedly advanced 400 meters in the southern part of Dzerzhinsk.
  • Velyka Novosilka: Russian forces are advancing southwest of Velyka Novosilka and have reached Storozheve and Neskuchne. They are attacking Novyi Komar and Novoocheretuvate.
  • Donetsk Region: Russian forces have occupied Trudove and made advances near Uspenivka, Kurakhove, Zahryzove, Pishchane, Novoolenivka, Volkove, Neskuchne, and Vidrodzhennia.
• Northern Front:
  • Kursk Region: Intense fighting continues, with 55 engagements reported.
  • Sumy Oblast: New groups of enemy drones are entering Sumy Oblast from the Kursk region.
• Southern Front:
  • Zaporizhzhia Oblast: Drone activity continues. The air raid alert has been lifted.
  • Kherson: Kherson is under threat of attack from the north.

Other Developments

• Alleged Assassination Attempt: Reports of an alleged assassination attempt on a high-ranking Russian official.
• North Korean Troops: Reports of North Korean troops participating in the conflict.
• Zelensky-Macron Meeting: France will prepare an additional brigade for the Ukrainian army.
• Zelensky-Rutte Meeting: Discussions on strengthening Ukraine's air defense.
• Diplomatic Statements:
  • Russian UN representative criticized NATO's "double standards" regarding cooperation with North Korea.
  • US Secretary of State Blinken claimed China's support for Russia is hindering Beijing's relations with Europe. Blinken also stated that he is open to productive contacts with Russia concerning Ukraine under a Trump administration, but claims Russia has not shown interest in serious discussions with the current administration.
  • Chinese embassy spokesperson urged Washington to evaluate Beijing's intentions objectively.
  • The Chinese press secretary stated that China maintains a minimal nuclear arsenal for national security.
  • Polish President mentioned the possibility of sending Polish troops to Ukraine is a "topic for discussion".
  • Maria Zakharova made an ironic statement about a US State Department representative's slip of the tongue.
• Train Collision in Russia: Two people died in a train collision near Murmansk.
• Propaganda Video: A Ukrainian journalist in Pokrovsk was interrupted by Russian artillery fire. A video message showed older Russian soldiers preparing for suicidal attacks to divert Ukrainian drone strikes.
• Kryvyi Rih: An attack on Kryvyi Rih damaged central collectors, electricity, trams, and multiple buildings, including a hospital. All individuals are reported alive.
• Launch of Reactors: The launch of reactors on the heavy nuclear missile cruiser "Admiral Nakhimov" is scheduled for the third week of December.
• Military Aid: Belgium has postponed the delivery of F-16 aircraft to Ukraine.

Analysis and Strategic Implications

The Ukrainian drone attack on the Novoshakhtinsk oil refinery represents a significant escalation in the conflict, demonstrating Ukraine's ability to strike deep within Russian territory and impact its fuel infrastructure. This could lead to retaliatory strikes and further escalation. The potential targeting of the ELOY-AVT-2,5 unit suggests a focus on disrupting specific refining capabilities.

Russian advances in Kurakhove and Pokrovsk, along with intense fighting in the Kursk region and Dzerzhinsk, indicate sustained offensive pressure.

The extensive use of drones by both sides underscores the evolving technological nature of the conflict.

The situation remains highly fluid, with the Novoshakhtinsk oil refinery attack and ongoing Russian offensives being key factors to monitor. The reported damage in Kryvyi Rih also highlights the continued targeting of critical infrastructure. The ironic statement by Maria Zakharova and the postponement of F-16 deliveries to Ukraine add further complexity to the diplomatic and military landscape.