Major Military Situation Updates - December 19, 2024, 00:02 UTC

Executive Summary

The conflict in Ukraine shows a dynamic situation with Russian forces making advances in multiple directions, especially around Kurakhove and Pokrovsk. Intense fighting is reported across various fronts, including Toretsk, Velyka Novosilka, and the Kursk region. Ukrainian forces are employing extensive drone warfare, achieving a significant strike on the Novoshakhtinsk oil refinery in Russia's Rostov region.

Key Updates

Attacks on Russian Territory

• Novoshakhtinsk Oil Refinery Attack: A major fire occurred at the Novoshakhtinsk oil refinery in the Rostov region, Russia, following multiple drone attacks. Ukrainian forces claim responsibility. The attack is confirmed by local media and the regional governor, with reports of multiple drones involved and a large fire at the facility. This signifies a direct impact on Russian fuel infrastructure and a major escalation in the conflict. The acting governor of the Rostov region confirmed the attack and stated that emergency services were deployed.
• Other Drone Attacks: Reports indicate drone attacks targeting airfields in Taganrog and Bataysk, with details still emerging.

Drone Warfare

• Extensive Drone Activity: Both sides are using drones extensively for reconnaissance, targeting, and attacks.
• Ukrainian Drone Movements:
  • One drone is near Brovary, approaching Kyiv.
  • One drone is near Bashtanka.
  • One drone moved from Dnipropetrovsk Oblast to Kirovohrad Oblast.
  • Two drones are north of Zhytomyr.
  • Two drones are in the Kremenchuk area.
  • Two drones are in the east of Kyiv Oblast.
  • Three drones are north of Cherkasy.
  • Three drones moved from Poltava Oblast to Cherkasy Oblast.
  • Four drones are north of Pryluky.
  • One drone moved from Chernihiv Oblast to the north of Kyiv Oblast.
  • Two drones are near Konotop.
  • One drone is approaching Starokostiantyniv.
  • One drone is near/over Shepetivka.
  • One drone is near/over Kropyvnytskyi.
  • Two drones are moving from the north of Chernihiv Oblast to the north of Kyiv Oblast.
  • One drone is in the Cherkasy area, moving west.
  • One drone is over Poltava.
  • One drone is in Sumy Oblast, near Shostka.
• Air Raid Alert in Kyiv: An air raid alert was issued for Kyiv, with reports of UAVs moving past Brovary towards the city and air defense systems active. The alert has since been lifted.
• Threats Reported: Drone threats are reported for Mykolaiv, Kirovohrad, Poltava, Cherkasy, Kyiv, Chernihiv, Sumy, and Zhytomyr Oblasts.

Ground Situation

• Eastern Front:
  • Kurakhove: Russian forces control approximately 80% of Kurakhove, including the city council building and all residential areas. They are attempting to encircle Ukrainian forces.
  • Pokrovsk: Russian forces have advanced to within 2 km of Pokrovsk, capturing several surrounding villages. The situation is described as difficult for Ukrainian forces.
  • Toretsk and Chasov Yar: Russian forces are consolidating control in Toretsk and advancing near Dzerzhinsk. In Chasov Yar, they have partially dislodged Ukrainian forces from a refractory plant.
  • Velyka Novosilka: Russian forces are advancing southwest of Velyka Novosilka and have reached Storozheve and Neskuchne, forming a new "pocket." They are also attacking Novyi Komar and Novoocheretuvate. Ukrainian forces report that Russian forces are attempting to encircle them near Makarivka.
  • Donetsk Region: Russian forces have reportedly occupied Trudove and made advances near Uspenivka, Kurakhove, Zahryzove, Pishchane, Novoolenivka, Volkove, Neskuchne, and Vidrodzhennia.
• Northern Front:
  • Kursk Region: Intense fighting continues, with 55 engagements reported. Reports of North Korean special forces involvement, suffering losses, and mistakenly firing upon Chechen forces.
  • Sumy Oblast: New groups of enemy drones are entering Sumy Oblast from the Kursk region, moving west/southwest.
• Southern Front:
  • Zaporizhzhia Oblast: Drone activity continues.
  • Kherson: Kherson is under threat of attack from the north.

Other Developments

• Alleged Assassination Attempt: Reports of an alleged assassination attempt on a high-ranking Russian official, with suggestions of Ukrainian involvement.
• North Korean Troops: Reports of North Korean troops participating in the conflict, suffering losses, and reportedly mistakenly firing upon Chechen forces.
• Zelensky-Macron Meeting: President Zelensky discussed strengthening Ukraine's position against Russian aggression with President Macron. France will prepare an additional brigade for the Ukrainian army.
• Zelensky-Rutte Meeting: President Zelensky discussed strengthening Ukraine's air defense and the reliability of the peace they are working towards with NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte.
• Diplomatic Statements:
  • Russian Permanent Representative to the UN, Nebenzya, criticized NATO's "double standards" regarding cooperation with North Korea, stating that Russia-North Korea partnership is not directed against third countries.
  • US Secretary of State Blinken claimed that China's support for Russia is hindering Beijing's relations with European countries.
  • Chinese embassy spokesperson in the US, Liu Pengyu, urged Washington to objectively evaluate Beijing's strategic intentions.
  • Polish President Duda mentioned that the possibility of sending Polish troops to Ukraine is a "topic for discussion" but emphasized that no such discussion is currently taking place.
• Train Collision in Russia: Two people died in a train collision near Murmansk, Russia.
• Propaganda Video: A video surfaced showing a Ukrainian journalist in Pokrovsk being interrupted by Russian artillery fire.

Analysis and Strategic Implications

The Ukrainian drone attack on the Novoshakhtinsk oil refinery is a significant escalation, demonstrating Ukraine's ability to strike deep within Russian territory and directly impact Russia's fuel infrastructure. This could have major implications for Russia's ability to sustain military operations and may lead to retaliatory strikes.

Russian advances in the Kurakhove and Pokrovsk directions, along with intense fighting in the Kursk region, indicate sustained offensive pressure on multiple fronts. The reported involvement of North Korean troops, although likely exaggerated, adds complexity to the conflict.

The extensive use of drones by both sides, particularly the Ukrainian use of signal splitters, highlights the evolving technological nature of the conflict. The constant adaptation and innovation in drone warfare indicate a battle for technological superiority.

The situation remains highly fluid and unpredictable. The coming days and weeks will be crucial in determining the trajectory of the conflict, particularly in light of the Novoshakhtinsk oil refinery attack and the ongoing Russian offensives.