Major Military Situation Updates - December 18, 2024, 23:32 UTC

Executive Summary

The conflict in Ukraine remains highly dynamic, with Russian forces making significant advances, particularly in the Kurakhove and Pokrovsk directions. Intense fighting is reported across multiple fronts, including Toretsk, Velyka Novosilka, and the Kursk region.

• Significant Fire/Explosion at Novoshakhtinsk Oil Refinery: Reports and videos indicate a major fire at the Novoshakhtinsk oil refinery in the Rostov region, Russia, following multiple drone attacks. This is a significant development as it directly impacts Russian fuel infrastructure. Ukrainian forces claim responsibility for the attack. Local media confirms the attack, with reports of multiple drones involved and a large fire at the facility.
• Air Raid Alert in Kyiv: An air raid alert has been issued for Kyiv, with reports of a UAV moving past Brovary towards the city. Air defense is active in the region. Multiple drones are reported across Ukraine.
• Drone Activity: Multiple drone movements are reported across Ukraine:
  • One drone is near Brovary, approaching Kyiv.
  • One drone is near Bashtanka.
  • One drone moved from Dnipropetrovsk Oblast to Kirovohrad Oblast.
  • Two drones are north of Zhytomyr.
  • Two drones are in the Kremenchuk area.
  • Two drones are in the east of Kyiv Oblast.
  • Three drones are north of Cherkasy.
  • Three drones moved from Poltava Oblast to Cherkasy Oblast.
  • Four drones are north of Pryluky.
  • One drone moved from Chernihiv Oblast to the north of Kyiv Oblast.
  • Two drones are near Konotop.
  • Threats are reported for Mykolaiv, Kirovohrad, Poltava, Cherkasy, Kyiv, Chernihiv, Sumy, and Zhytomyr Oblasts.
• Drone Attack in Rostov Region: A drone attack is reported in the Rostov region, with a confirmed fire at an oil refinery in Novoshakhtinsk. Ukrainian forces are suspected. Videos show a large fire at the refinery.
• Alleged Assassination Attempt: Reports of an alleged assassination attempt on a high-ranking Russian official, with suggestions of Ukrainian involvement and the use of foreign mercenaries.
• North Korean Troops: Reports of North Korean troops participating in the conflict, suffering losses, and reportedly mistakenly firing upon Chechen forces.
• Zelensky-Macron Meeting: President Zelensky had a productive meeting with President Macron, discussing the strengthening of Ukraine's position against Russian aggression. France will prepare an additional brigade for the Ukrainian army.
• Zelensky-Rutte Meeting: President Zelensky had an important meeting with NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte, focusing on strengthening Ukraine's air defense and discussing the reliability of the peace they are working towards.

Key Updates by Region

Eastern Front

Kurakhove and Pokrovsk

• Kurakhove Under Heavy Assault: Russian forces control approximately 80% of Kurakhove, including the city council building and all residential areas. Active combat is ongoing, with Russian forces attempting to encircle Ukrainian forces.
• Significant Russian Advances: Russian forces made significant advances, securing several settlements around Kurakhove and advancing towards Pokrovsk.
• Pokrovsk Threatened: Russian forces have advanced to within 2 km of Pokrovsk, capturing several surrounding villages. The situation for Ukrainian forces is described as increasingly difficult.

Toretsk and Chasov Yar

• Consolidation and Advances: Russian forces are consolidating control in Toretsk and advancing near Dzerzhinsk. Street fighting has continued for two months.
• Chasov Yar Fighting: Russian forces have partially dislodged Ukrainian forces from a refractory plant in Chasov Yar.

Velyka Novosilka

• Southwest Advance: Russian forces are advancing southwest of Velyka Novosilka and have reached Storozheve and Neskuchne, forming a new "pocket."
• Attacks on Novyi Komar and Novoocheretuvate: Russian assault units are attacking in the direction of these settlements.
• Encirclement Near Makarivka: Ukrainian sources report that Russian forces are attempting to encircle Ukrainian forces near Makarivka.

Northern Front

Kursk Region

• Intense Fighting: Intense fighting continues, with 55 engagements reported.
• North Korean Involvement: Reports claim North Korean special forces are involved, suffering losses, and mistakenly firing upon Chechen forces.
• Drone Warfare: Extensive drone activity is reported, with Ukrainian forces using drones to target Russian logistics and troops in the region.

Sumy Oblast

• Drone Activity: New groups of enemy drones are entering Sumy Oblast from the Kursk region, moving west/southwest.

Southern Front

• Drone Activity: Drone activity continues in the Zaporizhzhia Oblast.
• Kherson: Kherson is under threat of attack from the north.

Drone Warfare

• Extensive Drone Activity: Extensive drone activity is reported across Ukraine, with both sides employing drones for reconnaissance, targeting, and attacks. New groups of drones are entering Sumy from the north and northeast, approaching Dnipro, Kryvyi Rih, and Starokostiantyniv. There are reports of multiple drone movements across Ukraine, particularly in Sumy, Chernihiv, Poltava, and Dnipropetrovsk regions.
• Novoshakhtinsk Oil Refinery Attack: Ukrainian forces claim responsibility for a significant drone attack on the Novoshakhtinsk oil refinery in the Rostov region, Russia, causing a large fire and significant damage. This attack marks a major escalation as it directly targets Russian fuel infrastructure.
• Ukrainian Drone Tactics: Ukrainian forces have reportedly started using signal splitters to counter Russian electronic warfare measures against their drones.

Missile Attacks

• Continued Attacks: Russia continues to target Ukrainian infrastructure with missile attacks, including power grids, gas networks, and transport networks.

Other Developments

• Alleged Assassination: Ukrainian sources claim responsibility for the assassination of Lieutenant General Igor Kirillov, head of the Russian Chemical, Biological, and Radiological Protection troops.
• Negotiations: Discussions are reportedly taking place between US and Ukrainian officials to find a way to end the war.
• Moldova: Moldova is introducing a state of emergency due to uncertainty regarding gas transit through Ukraine.
• Syria: The Syrian military reportedly lost all of its combat aircraft and most of its air defense systems in 42 hours due to Israeli airstrikes.

Analysis and Strategic Implications

The successful Ukrainian drone attack on the Novoshakhtinsk oil refinery represents a significant escalation in the conflict. It demonstrates Ukraine's increasing capability to strike targets deep within Russian territory and directly impact Russia's fuel infrastructure. This could have major implications for Russia's ability to sustain its military operations and could lead to retaliatory strikes.

The continued Russian advances in the Kurakhove and Pokrovsk directions, coupled with the intense fighting in the Kursk region, indicate that Russia is maintaining offensive pressure on multiple fronts. The reported involvement of North Korean troops, while likely exaggerated, adds another layer of complexity to the conflict.

The ongoing drone warfare, particularly the use of signal splitters by Ukrainian forces, highlights the evolving technological landscape of the conflict. Both sides are adapting and innovating in their use of drones, leading to a constant battle for technological superiority.

The reported discussions between US and Ukrainian officials regarding negotiations to end the war suggest that diplomatic efforts are still underway, although the likelihood of a near-term breakthrough seems low given the current battlefield dynamics.

The situation remains highly fluid and unpredictable. The coming days and weeks will be crucial in determining the trajectory of the conflict, particularly in light of the Novoshakhtinsk oil refinery attack and the ongoing Russian offensives.