Major Military Situation Updates - December 15, 2024, 17:24 UTC
Key Developments
Eastern Front
Intense Fighting in Kurakhove and Pokrovsk: Russian forces are making significant advances in the Pokrovsk and Kurakhove directions.
A large-scale encirclement operation is underway in Kurakhove, with Russian troops reportedly occupying the city council building and controlling 80% of the city, up from the previously reported figure.
Ukrainian forces control no more than 20% of Kurakhove, according to DPR head Pushilin.
Heavy fighting is ongoing in and around Kurakhove, with reports of significant Ukrainian casualties and the destruction of the last Ukrainian defense line in Veselyi Hai.
Russian forces have reportedly captured Yelizavetovka, Veselyi Hai, Zholte, and Zarya.
Russian forces are attempting to cut off the supply route from Dachenske to Yantarne to Uspenovka.
Ukrainian forces are attempting to restore their tactical position near Storozheve, Sukhi Yaly, Kostiantynopil, and Veselyi Hai.
Russian forces have advanced to within 2km of Pokrovsk, capturing Novotroitskoye, Zarya, and Shevchenko.
Ukrainian forces destroyed a bridge leading to Pokrovsk to slow the Russian advance.
Over 1,000 personnel from the 155th Brigade of the Ukrainian Armed Forces reportedly deserted in the Krasnoarmiisk area.
Russian Advances Near Toretsk and Chasov Yar:
Russian forces are consolidating control in Toretsk and reportedly advancing near Dzerzhinsk.
Fighting is ongoing on the northern and western edge of the Fire-Resistant Compound in Chasov Yar, which is being used by Ukrainian forces as a strongpoint.
Russian forces have made a breakthrough in the Khomkolonka microdistrict and are attempting to take control of spoil heaps No. 1 and No. 2.
Russian forces are advancing towards the small mine No. 10 spoil heap near Toretsk.
Ivanovo paratroopers are clearing out Ukrainian forces from the refractory plant in Chasov Yar.
Velyka Novosilka:
Russian forces are advancing southwest of Velyka Novosilka and have reached Storozheve and Neskuchne, forming a new "pocket."
Clashes are reported near Trudove, Velykyi Hai, Kostiantynopilske, Sukhi Yaly, Blahodatne, Storozheve, and Neskuchne.
Northern Front
Kursk Region:
There were 55 engagements in the Kursk direction, with 25 ongoing.
Russian forces reportedly liberated Daryino and Novoivanovka in the Sudzha district.
Russian marines took a fortified position from Ukrainian forces in the Kursk border region.
Reports claim North Korean special forces are involved in operations in the Kursk region, with reports of them suffering their first losses and mistakenly firing upon Chechen forces. Their participation is likely exaggerated.
Russian forces destroyed an M1 Abrams tank with an FPV drone and two Ukrainian vehicles with fiber optic drones near Mala Loknya.
Residents of liberated Kursk villages are to be evacuated.
Sumy Oblast:
New groups of enemy drones are entering Sumy Oblast from the Kursk region, moving west/southwest.
Sumy is under threat of attack from the northwest and northeast.
Russian tactical aviation is active, conducting guided air bomb strikes on Sumy.
Russian forces are concentrating significant forces in Sumy Oblast, with a potential strength of up to 12,000 personnel.
Kharkiv Oblast:
Heavy fighting is ongoing in Volchansk, with reports of Ukrainian forces deploying chemical weapons.
Fighting continues near Hlyboke, Lyptsi, Starytsya and Vovchansk.
Russian forces are consolidating their positions in the areas of Masytivka and Dvorichna.
Multiple ballistic missile strikes are reported in Kharkiv and Slobozhanske.
Southern Front
Zaporizhzhia Oblast:
There were 268 attacks on 10 settlements, involving 150 drones, 8 Grad rocket barrages, and 109 artillery strikes.
Ukrainian HIMARS units are deployed in Zaporizhzhia.
Ukrainian authorities are evacuating civilians from Mala Tokmachka.
Kherson Oblast:
Kherson is under threat of attack from the north.
There was a reported firefight near the Antonovsky Bridge.
Russian forces attacked Mikhailovka and Nikolsky.
Drone Warfare
Extensive Drone Activity: Drone activity is reported across Ukraine, including Kyiv, Sumy, Kharkiv, Poltava, Cherkasy, Kirovohrad, Vinnytsia, Kherson, Dnipro, and Zaporizhzhia regions.
New Drone Groups: New groups of drones are entering Sumy from the north and northeast, approaching Dnipro, Kryvyi Rih, and Starokostiantyniv.
Explosions: Explosions have been reported in multiple regions due to drone attacks.
Russian Drone Tactics:
Russian forces used approximately 100 Geran drones to deplete Ukrainian air defenses overnight.
Ukrainian forces report a new tactic of Russian drones attacking other drones in the air, specifically mentioning such attacks near Kharkiv.
Ukrainian Drone Usage: Ukrainian forces are utilizing drones for reconnaissance, targeting, and kamikaze attacks.
Drone Shootdowns: 14 Ukrainian UAVs were destroyed overnight in Bryansk Oblast. Two Shahed drones were shot down over Khmelnytskyi Oblast.
Specific Drone Attacks:
Ukrainian drone attacks reported in multiple Russian regions, including a fire at an oil depot in Orlov.
Ukrainian drone remotely mined Russian logistics routes near Zoria, Donetsk Oblast.
A Ukrainian drone attack near Ochakiv damaged an "Ukraposhta" vehicle.
A drone attack on a police special forces barracks in Grozny resulted in minor injuries to 4 guards.
Russian operators destroyed a Ukrainian "Baba Yaga" drone near Kupyansk and an armored vehicle in the Kharkiv region.
Missile Attacks
Massive Attack: A massive Russian missile attack involved 93 missiles and 200 drones, with 81 missiles shot down by Ukrainian forces.
Targets: Russia is targeting Ukrainian infrastructure, including power grids, gas networks, and transport networks.
Specific Strikes: Explosions were reported in Odesa and near Dnipro, with reports indicating a ballistic missile strike.
North Korean Missiles: Russia is employing various missile types, including North Korean missiles.
F-16 Interceptions: Ukrainian F-16s reportedly shot down 11 cruise missiles during the massive attack.
Other Developments
Ship Sinkings: Three Russian ships have reportedly sunk in the Black Sea: the tankers "Volgoneft-212" and "Volgoneft-239" in the Kerch Strait, and a crane vessel near Yalta. The operation to evacuate the crew of "Volgoneft-239" was suspended due to weather.
Humanitarian Crisis:
The humanitarian situation remains dire, with ongoing reports of civilian casualties and infrastructure damage.
Ukraine is facing an ongoing energy crisis due to Russian attacks on energy infrastructure. Half of the population is expected to be without power.
DTEK reports that new power outage schedules will be implemented on December 16, with further information delayed until 01:00 due to system updates.
"Ukrenergo" announced power restrictions for December 16. Power outages will be in effect from 07:00 to 20:00.
Moldova State of Emergency: Moldova is introducing a state of emergency due to uncertainty regarding gas transit through Ukraine, starting December 16.
Economic Measures in Ukraine: A meeting in Zaporizhzhia addressed improving the business environment and removing administrative barriers. The Ukrainian government is considering a proposal to provide quarterly financial assistance to veterans for sports activities.
Explosion in Dnipro: Reports indicate an explosion in Dnipro, resulting in at least one death and multiple injuries. The incident is being investigated as a potential terrorist act.
Explosion in Mykolaiv: An explosion was heard in Mykolaiv, confirmed by the head of the regional military administration, likely caused by a drone. Two women were injured.
Alleged Deception by Head of Hardcore: Reports accuse the head of Hardcore, Anatoly Sulyanov, of deceiving the 810th Marine Brigade by promising but failing to deliver military equipment.
Turkish Statement on Syria: Turkish media stated that Turkey would shoot down Israeli warplanes if they support the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), but this is viewed as unlikely.
Russian Leadership Denials: The head of the Russian Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR) denied contact with the CIA regarding Syria and confirmed ongoing contacts with the US regarding prisoner exchanges.
Negotiations to End the War: Discussions are reportedly taking place between US officials and Ukrainian officials to find a way to end the war. The Trump administration is reportedly ready to consider Orban's initiative for a ceasefire.
US Cost of Russian Victory: A former Pentagon official estimated a Russian victory in Ukraine would cost the US $808 billion in defense spending over five years.
George Bush Presidential Center Recommendations: The center recommended doubling support for Ukraine.
Syrian Army Collapse: The reasons for the collapse of the Syrian army are being attributed to economic factors. The Syrian military reportedly lost all of its combat aircraft and most of its air defense systems in 42 hours due to Israeli airstrikes.
Alleged Atrocities in Syrian Military Prisons: Reports of atrocities in Syrian military prisons add to regional instability.
Russian Troop Withdrawal from Syria: Reuters reports that Russia is withdrawing troops from the front lines in Syria but will maintain their two main bases. Russia reportedly assisted in evacuating personnel from diplomatic missions of Belarus, North Korea, and Abkhazia from Damascus. The Russian embassy in Damascus continues to operate.
Food Rationing in Russia: The Russian State Duma is considering reintroducing food ration cards, similar to those used in the USSR.
Training of Ukrainian Instructors: Ukrainian military instructors will be trained in Lithuania in 2025 as part of NATO's DEEP program.
Belarusian Military Tests: Belarus conducted successful tests of the "Sapphire" grenade launcher complex.
Alleged Atrocities in Petrivka: Russian forces reportedly discovered civilians locked in basements in Petrivka, DPR.
Capture of Ukrainian Soldiers: 700 Ukrainian soldiers are reportedly trapped near Kurakhovo.
Territorial Gains: Russian forces have reportedly gained 5.85 km² of territory.
Air Superiority: Russian forces used approximately 100 Geran drones to deplete Ukrainian air defenses overnight.
Explosions in Ukraine: Explosions have been reported in Poltava, Sumy, Kharkiv, Kremenchuk, Dnipropetrovsk, Khmelnytskyi, Kyiv, Kherson, Cherkasy, and Mykolaiv.
Black Sea and Azov Sea Activity: No hostile warships are detected in the Black Sea or the Azov Sea.
Mediterranean Sea Activity: 7 hostile warships present, 4 missile carriers with "Kalibr" missiles, and 41 total missile volleys in the Mediterranean Sea.
Kerch Strait Passage: No passages were registered for the Black Sea, 4 Russian vessels passed through the Kerch Strait into the Azov Sea, and 2 of these vessels continued their transit towards the Bosporus Strait.
Negotiations in Doha: Turkish Foreign Minister reported that Bashar al-Assad stepped down as President of Syria following negotiations in Doha.
Israeli Airstrikes in Syria: Israeli Air Force continues to destroy military facilities in Syria.
Georgian Presidential Elections: Protests are taking place in Georgia as opposition parties do not recognize the legitimacy of the elections.
Protests in Tbilisi: The lighting of the New Year's tree in Tbilisi was postponed due to protests.
Russian Military Values: President Putin stated the main task of the National Center "Russia" is to promote traditional spiritual and moral values.
Chernobyl Liquidators Honored: A ceremony was held in Zaporizhzhia to honor the liquidators of the Chernobyl disaster.
Casualty and Equipment Loss Reports
Casualty Report: The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reported an estimated 761,160 enemy losses since February 24, 2022, with 1,040 in the last 24 hours, a decrease from the previous report.
Equipment Losses: Significant losses reported in aircraft (369), helicopters (329), tanks (9,539), UAVs (20,229), armored vehicles (19,675), cruise missiles (2,861), artillery systems (21,102), warships/boats (28), MLRS (1,253), submarines (1), vehicles & fuel tanks (31,217), anti-aircraft systems (1,023), and special equipment (3,644).
Strategic Implications of Ukrainian Pilot Loss: The Ukrainian Air Force confirmed the loss of a pilot and a Su-25 ground attack aircraft near Kherson.
Strategic Implications
The Russian advances in Pokrovsk and Kurakhove directions pose a significant threat to Ukrainian defenses in the east. The potential encirclement of Ukrainian forces in Kurakhove could lead to a major loss for Ukraine.
The widespread use of drones by both sides highlights the evolving nature of the conflict and the importance of drone warfare in shaping the battlefield. The new tactic of drones attacking other drones may become more prevalent.
Russia's continued targeting of Ukrainian infrastructure, particularly energy facilities, is creating a humanitarian crisis and putting immense pressure on the Ukrainian government and population.
The potential involvement of North Korean troops, although likely exaggerated, adds another layer of complexity to the conflict.
The concentration of Russian forces in Sumy Oblast could signal a new offensive in the north.
Moldova's state of emergency highlights the regional instability caused by the conflict and the potential for broader implications.
Germany's potential refusal to supply Taurus missiles to Ukraine could impact Ukraine's ability to strike long-range targets and may signal a shift in Western support.
The delay in DTEK's power outage schedules indicates ongoing challenges in managing Ukraine's energy grid and the impact of Russian attacks on civilian infrastructure.
The confirmation of ship sinkings adds to the naval dimension of the conflict and may impact maritime operations in the Black Sea.
The consideration of food rationing in Russia suggests potential economic strain and challenges in maintaining supplies.
The reported negotiations to end the war and discussions on potential costs of a Russian victory highlight the ongoing diplomatic efforts and the high stakes involved.
Future Outlook
The situation on the ground remains highly fluid, with intense fighting ongoing across multiple fronts. The coming days and weeks will be critical in determining whether Russian forces can maintain their momentum and achieve a breakthrough, or if Ukrainian defenses can hold and stabilize the situation. The continued use of drones and missiles will likely shape the battlefield, while the humanitarian situation will continue to deteriorate. The international response, particularly regarding military aid and diplomatic efforts, will play a crucial role in determining the future course of the conflict.
Changes from the Previous Situation
Increased Russian Control in Kurakhove: Russian forces now control approximately 80% of Kurakhove, a significant increase from previous reports. Ukrainian forces control no more than 20%.
New Reports of Drone-on-Drone Attacks: Ukrainian forces report a new tactic of Russian drones attacking other drones in the air, particularly near Kharkiv.
Confirmation of Ship Sinkings: Three Russian ships have reportedly sunk in the Black Sea, including two tankers and a crane vessel.
Food Rationing in Russia: The Russian State Duma is considering reintroducing food ration cards, similar to those used in the USSR.
New Information on Military Aid: Poland has provided over 4.5 billion euros in military aid to Ukraine, including over 1,300 tanks, IFVs, artillery systems, aircraft, and helicopters.
Updated Casualty and Equipment Loss Figures: The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine has provided updated figures on estimated enemy losses and equipment losses.
New Information on Diplomatic Developments: Reports on the meeting between Putin and Nazarbayev, Belgium's planned increase in NATO reserve troops, and the potential deployment of EU peacekeepers.
New Information on Drone Warfare: Details on specific drone attacks, countermeasures, and the use of new drone technologies.
Updates on the Situation in Syria: Information on the alleged resignation of Bashar al-Assad and ongoing Israeli airstrikes. Russia is reportedly withdrawing troops from Syria but will maintain its two main bases.
New Information on Drone Attacks in Russia: Details on Ukrainian drone attacks in multiple Russian regions, including a fire at an oil depot in Orlov.
New Information on Missile Attacks in Taganrog: Ukraine reportedly launched six ATACMS ballistic missiles at Taganrog.
Evacuation of Diplomatic Staff from Syria: Russia has evacuated some personnel from its foreign missions in Damascus and assisted in evacuating personnel from Belarusian, North Korean, and Abkhazian missions. The Russian embassy in Damascus continues to operate.
North Korean Troops: Reports of North Korean troops suffering their first losses and mistakenly firing upon Chechen forces.
These updates highlight the intensification of fighting in the Kurakhove and Pokrovsk directions, the increasing importance of drone warfare, and the ongoing humanitarian and economic challenges faced by Ukraine. The potential for further escalation and the need for continued international support remain critical factors in the evolving situation. The new tactic of drones attacking other drones, the confirmation of ship sinkings, and the consideration of food rationing in Russia add new dimensions to the conflict and its broader implications. The evacuation of diplomatic staff from Syria and reports of North Korean troop involvement further highlight the international dimension of the conflict.
