Major Military Situation Updates - December 15, 2024, 16:54 UTC
Key Developments
Intense Fighting in Kurakhove and Pokrovsk: Russian forces are making significant advances in the Pokrovsk and Kurakhove directions. A large-scale encirclement operation is underway in Kurakhove, with Russian troops reportedly occupying the city council building and controlling 80% of the city. Heavy fighting is ongoing in and around Kurakhove, with reports of significant Ukrainian casualties and the destruction of the last Ukrainian defense line in Veselyi Hai. Russian forces have reportedly captured Yelizavetovka. Ukrainian forces are attempting to restore their tactical position near Storozheve, Sukhi Yaly, Kostiantynopil, and Veselyi Hai.
Russian Advances Near Toretsk and Chasov Yar: Russian forces are consolidating control in Toretsk and reportedly advancing near Dzerzhinsk. Fighting is ongoing on the northern and western edge of the Fire-Resistant Compound in Chasov Yar, which is being used by Ukrainian forces as a strongpoint. Russian forces have made a breakthrough in the Khomkolonka microdistrict. They are also attempting to take control of the No. 1 and No. 2 spoil heaps.
Drone Warfare Dominates: Both sides are employing extensive drone operations. Ukrainian forces report increased drone attacks, especially FPV drones, and are struggling to counter them. Russian forces are employing new drone technologies, including fiber-optic guided drones and kamikaze drones to destroy Ukrainian equipment and personnel. Extensive drone activity is reported across Ukraine, including the destruction of a Ukrainian "Vampir" near Zoria, and the ramming of a Ukrainian drone by a Russian FPV drone. Ukraine reports a new tactic by Russian forces of using drones to attack other drones in the air, specifically mentioning such attacks near Kharkiv.
Missile Attacks Continue: Russia continues to target Ukrainian infrastructure with missile attacks, employing various missile types, including North Korean missiles. Ukrainian forces report a massive Russian attack involving 93 missiles and 200 drones, with 81 missiles shot down, including 11 cruise missiles shot down by F-16s. The "Stalny Kon" linear production and control station in the Oryol region, a major oil terminal supplying the Russian army, was struck.
Humanitarian Crisis Worsens: The humanitarian situation remains dire, with ongoing reports of civilian casualties and infrastructure damage. Ukraine is facing an ongoing energy crisis due to Russian attacks on energy infrastructure. Half of the population is expected to be without power. DTEK reports that new power outage schedules will be implemented on December 16, with further information delayed until 01:00 due to system updates. "Ukrenergo" announced power restrictions for December 16. Power outages will be in effect from 07:00 to 20:00.
Moldova State of Emergency: Moldova is introducing a state of emergency due to uncertainty regarding gas transit through Ukraine, starting December 16.
North Korean Involvement: Reports suggest North Korean troops are participating in assaults in the Kursk region, with new reports indicating they suffered their first losses and mistakenly fired upon Chechen forces. However, their overall involvement is likely exaggerated.
Potential Russian Troop Concentration in Sumy: Russian forces are concentrating significant forces in Sumy Oblast, with a potential strength of up to 12,000 personnel.
Strategic Implications of Ukrainian Pilot Loss: The Ukrainian Air Force confirmed the loss of a pilot and a Su-25 ground attack aircraft near Kherson.
Explosion in Dnipro: Reports indicate an explosion in Dnipro, resulting in at least one death and multiple injuries. The incident is being investigated as a potential terrorist act.
Alleged Deception by Head of Hardcore: Reports accuse the head of Hardcore, Anatoly Sulyanov, of deceiving the 810th Marine Brigade by promising but failing to deliver military equipment.
Turkish Statement on Syria: Turkish media stated that Turkey would shoot down Israeli warplanes if they support the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), but this is viewed as unlikely.
Russian Leadership Denials: The head of the Russian Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR) denied contact with the CIA regarding Syria and confirmed ongoing contacts with the US regarding prisoner exchanges.
Economic Measures in Ukraine: A meeting in Zaporizhzhia addressed improving the business environment and removing administrative barriers. The Ukrainian government is considering a proposal to provide quarterly financial assistance to veterans for sports activities.
Increased Attacks in Zaporizhzhia Oblast: 268 attacks on 10 settlements were reported, involving 150 drones, 8 Grad rocket barrages, and 109 artillery strikes.
Successful Drone Operations: Ukrainian air defense forces neutralized about ten hostile drones near Kyiv.
Casualty Report: The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reported an estimated 761,160 enemy losses since February 24, 2022, with 1,040 in the last 24 hours.
Equipment Losses: Significant losses reported in aircraft (369), helicopters (329), tanks (9,539), UAVs (20,229), armored vehicles (19,675), cruise missiles (2,861), artillery systems (21,102), warships/boats (28), MLRS (1,253), submarines (1), vehicles & fuel tanks (31,217), anti-aircraft systems (1,023), and special equipment (3,644).
Georgian Presidential Elections: Protests are taking place in Georgia as opposition parties do not recognize the legitimacy of the elections.
Training of Ukrainian Instructors: Ukrainian military instructors will be trained in Lithuania in 2025 as part of NATO's DEEP program.
Negotiations in Doha: Turkish Foreign Minister reported that Bashar al-Assad stepped down as President of Syria following negotiations in Doha.
Israeli Airstrikes in Syria: Israeli Air Force continues to destroy military facilities in Syria.
Drone Attacks in Russia: Ukrainian drone attacks reported in multiple Russian regions, including a fire at an oil depot in Orlov.
Negotiations to End the War: Discussions are reportedly taking place between US officials and Ukrainian officials to find a way to end the war.
US Cost of Russian Victory: A former Pentagon official estimated a Russian victory in Ukraine would cost the US $808 billion in defense spending over five years.
George Bush Presidential Center Recommendations: The center recommended doubling support for Ukraine.
Chernobyl Liquidators Honored: A ceremony was held in Zaporizhzhia to honor the liquidators of the Chernobyl disaster.
Belarusian Military Tests: Belarus conducted successful tests of the "Sapphire" grenade launcher complex.
Protests in Tbilisi: The lighting of the New Year's tree in Tbilisi was postponed due to protests.
Russian Military Values: President Putin stated the main task of the National Center "Russia" is to promote traditional spiritual and moral values.
Syrian Army Collapse: The reasons for the collapse of the Syrian army are being attributed to economic factors.
Russian Troop Withdrawal from Syria: Reuters reports that Russia is withdrawing troops from the front lines in Syria but will maintain their two main bases.
Food Rationing in Russia: The Russian State Duma is considering reintroducing food ration cards, similar to those used in the USSR.
Ship Sinkings in Black Sea: Three Russian ships have reportedly sunk in the Black Sea: the tankers "Volgoneft-212" and "Volgoneft-239" in the Kerch Strait, and a crane vessel near Yalta.
Detailed Situation Report
Eastern Front
Pokrovsk Direction:
Russian forces have advanced to within 2km of Pokrovsk, capturing Novotroitskoye, Zarya, and Shevchenko.
Ukrainian forces destroyed a bridge leading to Pokrovsk to slow the Russian advance.
Intense fighting is reported near Shevchenko, Novovasylivka, Sukhoi Yar, Lysivka, Dachevske, and Zelene.
Russian forces are advancing towards Novooleksiyivka and have reached the central part of Lysivka.
Over 1,000 personnel from the 155th Brigade of the Ukrainian Armed Forces reportedly deserted in the Krasnoarmiisk area.
Kurakhove Direction:
Russian forces have captured Veselyi Hai, Zholte, and Yelizavetovka south of Kurakhove.
Active combat is ongoing in Kurakhove, with Russian forces expanding their control zone in the city center by up to 500 meters. They have reportedly captured the city council building.
Ukrainian forces are at risk of encirclement in Uspenovka, Hannevka, Trudove, Veselyi Gai, and Romanivka.
Russian forces are attempting to cut off the supply route from Dachenske to Yantarne to Uspenovka.
Reports indicate significant Ukrainian casualties near Kurakhovo.
Toretsk and Chasov Yar:
Clashes are reported near Toretsk, Krymske, and Dyliivka.
Russian forces advanced into the region near Aleksandria.
Russian forces advanced towards the small mine No. 10 spoil heap near Toretsk.
Russian forces have made a breakthrough in the Khomkolonka microdistrict and are attempting to take control of spoil heaps No. 1 and No. 2.
Velyka Novosilka:
Russian forces are advancing southwest of Velyka Novosilka and have reached Storozheve and Neskuchne, forming a new "pocket".
Clashes are reported near Trudove, Velykyi Hai, Kostiantynopilske, Sukhi Yaly, Blahodatne, Storozheve, and Neskuchne.
Northern Front
Kursk Region:
There were 55 engagements in the Kursk direction, with 25 ongoing.
Russian forces reportedly liberated Daryino and Novoivanovka in the Sudzha district.
Russian marines took a fortified position from Ukrainian forces in the Kursk border region.
Reports claim North Korean special forces are involved in operations in the Kursk region, but their participation is likely exaggerated.
Russian forces destroyed an M1 Abrams tank with an FPV drone and two Ukrainian vehicles with fiber optic drones near Mala Loknya.
Sumy Oblast:
New groups of enemy drones are entering Sumy Oblast from the Kursk region, moving west/southwest.
Sumy is under threat of attack from the northwest and northeast.
Russian tactical aviation is active, conducting guided air bomb strikes on Sumy.
Kharkiv Oblast:
Heavy fighting is ongoing in Volchansk, with reports of Ukrainian forces deploying chemical weapons.
Fighting continues near Hlyboke, Lyptsi, Starytsya and Vovchansk.
Russian forces are consolidating their positions in the areas of Masytivka and Dvorichna.
Multiple ballistic missile strikes are reported in Kharkiv and Slobozhanske.
Southern Front
Zaporizhzhia Oblast:
There were 268 attacks on 10 settlements, involving 150 drones, 8 Grad rocket barrages, and 109 artillery strikes.
Ukrainian HIMARS units are deployed in Zaporizhzhia.
Ukrainian authorities are evacuating civilians from Mala Tokmachka.
Kherson Oblast:
Kherson is under threat of attack from the north.
There was a reported firefight near the Antonovsky Bridge.
Russian forces attacked Mikhailovka and Nikolsky.
Drone Warfare
Extensive drone activity across Ukraine, including Kyiv, Sumy, Kharkiv, Poltava, Cherkasy, Kirovohrad, Vinnytsia, Kherson, Dnipro, and Zaporizhzhia regions.
New groups of drones are entering Sumy from the north and northeast, approaching Dnipro, Kryvyi Rih, and Starokostiantyniv.
Explosions have been reported in multiple regions due to drone attacks.
Russian forces used approximately 100 Geran drones to deplete Ukrainian air defenses overnight.
Ukrainian forces are utilizing drones for reconnaissance, targeting, and kamikaze attacks.
14 Ukrainian UAVs were destroyed overnight in Bryansk Oblast. Two Shahed drones were shot down over Khmelnytskyi Oblast.
Ukrainian forces report a new tactic of Russian drones attacking other drones in the air, specifically mentioning such attacks near Kharkiv.
Missile Attacks
A massive Russian missile attack involved 93 missiles and 200 drones, with 81 missiles shot down by Ukrainian forces.
Russia is targeting Ukrainian infrastructure, including power grids, gas networks, and transport networks.
Explosions were reported in Odesa and near Dnipro, with reports indicating a ballistic missile strike.
Other Developments
The "Metinvest" metallurgical holding has stopped work at the "Shakhtoupravlenie "Pokrovskoe" coal site due to the approach of the front line.
Ukraine is preparing for a cessation of gas transit from Russia by 1 January 2025.
Reports allege Ukrainian forces committed mass killings of civilians in Selidovo.
Reports of Russian forces liquidating a unit of Colombian mercenaries near the LPR.
Unidentified drones disrupted operations at an airport in New York State.
Several unidentified drones were spotted over military objects in Germany, including Rheinmetall plants, a BASF chemical plant, and the US Ramstein Air Base.
A Ukrainian Su-24 bomber was shot down near the village of Zolotoye, Donetsk Oblast.
The Social Democratic Party of Germany (SPD) is considering a proposal to include a refusal to supply Taurus cruise missiles to Ukraine in its election program.
DTEK, Ukraine's largest private energy company, announced that power outage schedules for December 16 will be delayed until 01:00 due to system updates.
Strategic Implications
The Russian advances in Pokrovsk and Kurakhove directions pose a significant threat to Ukrainian defenses in the east. The potential encirclement of Ukrainian forces in Kurakhove could lead to a major loss for Ukraine.
The widespread use of drones by both sides highlights the evolving nature of the conflict and the importance of drone warfare in shaping the battlefield. The new tactic of drones attacking other drones may become more prevalent.
Russia's continued targeting of Ukrainian infrastructure, particularly energy facilities, is creating a humanitarian crisis and putting immense pressure on the Ukrainian government and population.
The potential involvement of North Korean troops, although likely exaggerated, adds another layer of complexity to the conflict.
The concentration of Russian forces in Sumy Oblast could signal a new offensive in the north.
Moldova's state of emergency highlights the regional instability caused by the conflict and the potential for broader implications.
Germany's potential refusal to supply Taurus missiles to Ukraine could impact Ukraine's ability to strike long-range targets and may signal a shift in Western support.
The delay in DTEK's power outage schedules indicates ongoing challenges in managing Ukraine's energy grid and the impact of Russian attacks on civilian infrastructure.
Future Outlook
The situation on the ground remains highly fluid, with intense fighting ongoing across multiple fronts. The coming days and weeks will be critical in determining whether Russian forces can maintain their momentum and achieve a breakthrough, or if Ukrainian defenses can hold and stabilize the situation. The continued use of drones and missiles will likely shape the battlefield, while the humanitarian situation will continue to deteriorate. The international response, particularly regarding military aid and diplomatic efforts, will play a crucial role in determining the future course of the conflict.
Changes from the Previous Situation
Increased Russian Control in Kurakhove: Russian forces now control approximately 80% of Kurakhove, a significant increase from previous reports.
New Reports of Drone-on-Drone Attacks: Ukrainian forces report a new tactic of Russian drones attacking other drones in the air, particularly near Kharkiv.
Confirmation of Ship Sinkings: Three Russian ships have reportedly sunk in the Black Sea, including two tankers and a crane vessel.
Food Rationing in Russia: The Russian State Duma is considering reintroducing food ration cards, similar to those used in the USSR.
New Information on Military Aid: Poland has provided over 4.5 billion euros in military aid to Ukraine, including over 1,300 tanks, IFVs, artillery systems, aircraft, and helicopters.
Updated Casualty and Equipment Loss Figures: The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine has provided updated figures on estimated enemy losses and equipment losses.
New Information on Diplomatic Developments: Reports on the meeting between Putin and Nazarbayev, Belgium's planned increase in NATO reserve troops, and the potential deployment of EU peacekeepers.
New Information on Drone Warfare: Details on specific drone attacks, countermeasures, and the use of new drone technologies.
Updates on the Situation in Syria: Information on the alleged resignation of Bashar al-Assad and ongoing Israeli airstrikes.
New Information on Drone Attacks in Russia: Details on Ukrainian drone attacks in multiple Russian regions, including a fire at an oil depot in Orlov.
New Information on Missile Attacks in Taganrog: Ukraine reportedly launched six ATACMS ballistic missiles at Taganrog.
These updates highlight the intensification of fighting in the Kurakhove and Pokrovsk directions, the increasing importance of drone warfare, and the ongoing humanitarian and economic challenges faced by Ukraine. The potential for further escalation and the need for continued international support remain critical factors in the evolving situation. The new tactic of drones attacking other drones, the confirmation of ship sinkings, and the consideration of food rationing in Russia add new dimensions to the conflict and its broader implications.
