Major Military Situation Updates - December 14, 2024, 06:20 UTC
Krasnoarmiisk (Pokrovsk) Direction
Intense Fighting Near Shevchenko and Novovasylivka: Ukrainian counterattacks met with Russian artillery and drone retaliations. Ukrainian reserves deployed near Shevchenko.
Russian Advance Towards Pokrovsk: Russian forces advanced within 2km of Pokrovsk, capturing Novotroitskoye, Zarya, and Shevchenko. A destroyed bridge leading to Pokrovsk indicates Ukrainian attempts to slow the advance.
Positional Fighting and Southern Flank Advance: Significant Russian advance on the southern flank near Krasnoarmiysk, with fighting ongoing near multiple settlements.
Russian Consolidation East of Highway M-30: Russian forces are consolidating positions and pushing towards Novoukrainka.
Lysivka Advance: Russian forces have reached the central part of Lysivka.
Demoralization in Kursk: Reports of demoralization among Ukrainian forces in Kursk Oblast.
Repelled Assaults: Ukrainian forces repelled multiple Russian assaults, primarily in the Zaporizhzhia direction.
Bridgehead Expansion: Russian forces are expanding their bridgehead towards Pokrovsk, using sabotage and reconnaissance groups (DRGs).
Railway Line Advance: Russian forces are advancing along the railway line towards the "Dymytrova" mine.
DeepState Report: Confirms Russian occupation of Zelenyi Hai, Romanivka, Novotroitske, and Pushkine, with advances elsewhere.
Kurakhove Direction
Significant Russian Advances: Russian forces secured southeastern Uspenovka and are attempting to encircle Ukrainian forces near the Kurakhov thermal power plant. The "Uspenovka pocket" has reportedly been eliminated.
Ukrainian Withdrawals: Ukrainian forces are withdrawing from parts of Yelizavetovka, Veselyi Hai, Annovka, Uspenovka, and Ostrovsky.
Destruction of Ukrainian Grouping: Russian forces destroyed a Ukrainian grouping between Elizavetovka and Uspenovka, consolidating control in southern Kurakhovo.
Capture of Veselyi Gai and Zarya: Russian forces captured Veselyi Gai, south of Kurakhovo, and the town of Zarya.
Fighting in Kurakhove: Fighting continues in Kurakhove and along the Sukhie Yaly River, with Russian forces attempting a breakthrough in the Uspenovka-Annovka-Veselyi Hai sector.
Supply Route Cut-Off Attempt: Russian forces are attempting to cut off the supply route from Dachenske to Yantarne to Uspenovka.
River Crossing Destruction: A Russian airstrike destroyed a Ukrainian crossing over the river Mokrye Yaly.
Significant Casualties: Reports of significant Ukrainian casualties near Kurakhovo, with over 20 Ukrainian soldiers reportedly killed near Storozheve and Neskuchne.
Encirclement Risk: Ukrainian forces in Uspenovka, Hannevka, Trudove, Veselyi Gai, and Romanivka are at risk of encirclement.
Advances in Kurakhovo Outskirts: Russian forces advanced along Nagornaya-1 street on the southern outskirts of Kurakhovo.
Zholte Capture and Counterattacks: Russian forces captured Zholte, with failed Ukrainian counterattacks.
Allegations of Atrocities in Selidovo: Reports allege Ukrainian forces committed mass killings of civilians in Selidovo.
Liquidation of Colombian Mercenaries: Reports of Russian forces liquidating a unit of Colombian mercenaries near the LPR.
Toretsk and Chasov Yar
Consolidation and Advances: Russian forces are consolidating control in Toretsk and advancing near Dzerzhinsk. Fighting continues on the northern and western edge of the Fire-Resistant Compound in Chasov Yar.
Partial Dislodgement in Chasov Yar: Russian forces have partially dislodged Ukrainian forces from the fire-resistant compound in Chasov Yar.
Velyka Novosilka
Aleksandria Advance: Russian forces advanced into the region near Aleksandria.
Pushkino Control: Russian forces likely have full control of Pushkino.
Other Advances: Russian forces advanced near Kalinina, around Scherbinovka, and north of Rivnopil.
Drone Warfare
Extensive Drone Activity: Widespread drone activity across Ukraine, with multiple drones moving towards Kyiv, Sumy, Kharkiv, Poltava, Cherkasy, Kirovohrad, Vinnytsia, Kherson, Dnipro, and Zaporizhzhia regions. New groups are entering Sumy Oblast.
Air Raid Alerts: Air raid alerts issued for Kyiv, Zaporizhzhia Oblast, and several other regions.
Ukrainian Drone Success: Ukrainian forces report destroying a Russian "Plastun-3000" electronic warfare station and damaging a Russian command post with drones.
Increased FPV Drone Threat: Ukrainian forces face an increased threat from Russian FPV drones. Reports indicate that Ukrainian forces are struggling to counter the increased use of Russian FPV drones.
Drone Attacks in Germany: Unidentified drones spotted over military objects in Germany.
Extensive FPV Drone Usage: Including the destruction of a Russian "Baba Yaga" drone and an M1 Abrams tank.
Reconnaissance and Guided Strikes: Russian forces are using reconnaissance drones followed by guided missile strikes.
Drone Technology: Reports of new Russian drone technology using fiber optics.
Simultaneous Strikes: Two Ukrainian drones simultaneously struck a single target.
Novoshahtinsk Oil Refinery Attack: The Novoshahtinsk oil refinery in Rostov region reportedly attacked by drones.
Drone Interceptions: Russian forces destroyed multiple Ukrainian drones in Rostov and Belgorod regions.
Anti-Drone Platform: Russian army presented images of a captured Ukrainian anti-drone platform.
UAV Crash in Kyiv: Ukrainian UAV crashed in Kyiv's Pecherskyi district.
Drone Deployments in Sumy Oblast: Russian forces actively deploying drones in Sumy Oblast.
High Speed Object Detection: High-speed object detected in the Sumy area.
Modified Drone Attacks: Possible use of modified drones with tail fins and mini-bombs.
Precision-Guided FPV Drones: Ukrainian forces are using precision-guided FPV drones.
Drone Movement Towards Cities: Drones moving towards Mirgorod, Kremenchug, Chernihiv, Kharkiv, Vinnitsya, Kirovohrad, Cherkasy, Zaporizhzhia, Dnipro, Kherson, Khmelnytska, Starokostyantyniv, and Kryvyi Rih.
Guided Air Bomb Attacks: Russian tactical aircraft launched guided air bombs in the Sumy region.
Depleted Air Defense: Russian forces used approximately 100 Geran drones to deplete Ukrainian air defenses.
Approach to Cities: Drones approaching Bila Tserkva, Belyayevka, Borispil, and Kryvyi Rih.
High-Speed Drone Threat: High-speed drones are a threat to Ternopil.
Lviv Region Threat: Multiple Russian drones threatening the Lviv region.
Ukrainian Drone Strikes: 180 FPV drone strikes and 125 fragmentation munitions launched by Ukrainian forces.
Increased Air Threat: Increased air threat, including drones, over the Kursk region.
Drone Shootdowns: Some drones shot down in Orel, causing a fire at an oil depot.
Drone Strikes and Countermeasures: Overnight, 37 Ukrainian drones were reportedly shot down over Russia. A fire at an oil depot in Orel, Russia, was caused by a drone attack.
Other Developments
Naval Activity: Russian missile carriers were not deployed to the Black or Azov Seas today, but were present in the Mediterranean.
Thailand Incident: Four people were killed and over 40 injured in an explosion at a Red Cross fair in Thailand.
Russian Military Summary: A report from the Russian Ministry of Defense summarized the previous day's military activity.
Air Activity: Ukrainian Air Force reported activity of Russian tactical aviation in the northeast.
Meeting in Novo-Ogaryovo: Putin held a meeting with Nazarbayev in Novo-Ogaryovo.
Belgian Military Reserves: Belgium plans to increase its NATO reserve troops threefold or fourfold in 2025.
Territorial Changes: A report indicated a net gain of 18.55 km² for Russian forces on December 13, 2024.
French Proposal for Peacekeepers: French President Macron plans to propose the deployment of EU peacekeepers to Ukraine after a ceasefire, to be discussed at the EU summit on December 18-19.
Concentration of Forces in Sumy Oblast: Russian forces are concentrating significant forces in Sumy Oblast, with a potential strength of up to 12,000 personnel. They are considering an attack towards Kurchatov from the south.
Strategic Objective: The Russian command aims to capture more internationally recognized territories to use as leverage in future negotiations.
Successful Drone Operations: Ukrainian air defense forces successfully detected and neutralized about ten hostile drones near Kyiv. Debris was reported in the Darnitsky district.
Casualty Report: The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reported an estimated 761,160 enemy losses since February 24, 2022, with 1,040 in the last 24 hours.
Equipment Losses: Significant losses reported in aircraft (369), helicopters (329), tanks (9,539), UAVs (20,229), armored vehicles (19,675), cruise missiles (2,861), artillery systems (21,102), warships/boats (28), MLRS (1,253), submarines (1), vehicles & fuel tanks (31,217), anti-aircraft systems (1,023), and special equipment (3,644).
Air Defense Activity: Ukrainian air defense worked overnight and in the morning in the Dnipropetrovsk region. Three private houses and a store were damaged in the Samarivskyi district, and a power line was affected. No casualties were reported.
Changes from Previous Situation
Continued Fighting: Ongoing intense fighting in multiple directions, with Russian advances in Pokrovsk and Kurakhove directions.
Drone Warfare Escalation: Significant increase in drone activity, with both sides employing drones extensively. Ukrainian forces are reporting an increased threat, especially from FPV drones.
Russian Advances: Significant Russian advances in several areas, capturing key locations and pushing closer to strategic objectives.
Ukrainian Countermeasures: Active Ukrainian countermeasures through counterattacks, drone warfare, and defensive actions.
Increased Air Activity: Increased air activity from both sides, including guided bombs and aviation strikes.
Territorial Gains and Losses: Dynamic battlefield with notable gains by Russian forces.
Humanitarian Concerns: Continued reports of civilian casualties and infrastructure damage.
Strategic Recommendations
Reinforce Pokrovsk and Kurakhove: Prioritize defenses in these areas due to significant Russian advances.
Enhance Counter-Drone Capabilities: Invest in and deploy advanced counter-drone technologies and strategies.
Secure Supply Lines: Ensure the security of supply lines, especially where Russian forces are attempting to cut off access.
Strengthen Air Defense: Enhance air defense systems to counter Russian aviation strikes and drone attacks.
Intelligence Gathering: Enhance intelligence to monitor Russian troop movements and anticipate actions.
International Support: Continue to seek and utilize international military and humanitarian aid.
Civilian Protection: Implement measures to protect civilians, including evacuations and safe zones.
Strategic Communication: Maintain clear communication with the public and international community.
Address Increased Drone Threat: Allocate resources to develop or acquire effective countermeasures against Russian FPV drones.
Investigate Atrocities in Selidovo: Investigate the allegations of mass killings in Selidovo and take appropriate actions.
Monitor Mediterranean Escalation: Monitor and plan for potential escalation due to Russian missile carriers in the Mediterranean.
Address Belgium's NATO Reserves Increase: Assess the impacts of Belgium's planned increase in NATO reserve troops on the conflict in Ukraine.
Analyze Putin-Nazarbayev Meeting: Gather intelligence on the meeting between Putin and Nazarbayev to understand potential outcomes.
Leverage Territorial Changes Information: Use reported territorial changes to inform operational planning and prioritize defensive efforts.
Counter Demoralizing Effects: Address potential troop demoralization through effective communication, leadership, and support.
Exploit Russian Drone Activity Intelligence: Use information on Russian drone movements to develop countermeasures and improve air defense strategies.
Address Ukrainian "Donetsk" OTG Command Change: Monitor and assess the impacts of the command change in the Ukrainian "Donetsk" OTG.
Investigate Demoralization in Kursk Oblast: Confirm and address reports of demoralization among Ukrainian forces in Kursk Oblast.
Prepare for Increased Guided Bomb Use: Prepare Ukrainian air defenses to counter the threat of increased guided bomb use by Russian forces.
Address Su-24 Bomber Loss Implications: Investigate the reported loss of a Ukrainian Su-24 bomber and mitigate future risks.
Utilize New Ukrainian Drone "Postman": Assess the capabilities and potential deployment of the new Ukrainian drone.
Prepare for EU Peacekeeper Deployment: Analyze the potential impact of deploying EU peacekeepers to Ukraine post-ceasefire.
Address Threat in Sumy Oblast: Reinforce defenses and prepare for potential offensive actions in Sumy Oblast due to the reported concentration of Russian forces.
Monitor Ukrainian Casualty Reports: Ensure adequate medical support and resources for Ukrainian forces given the high number of reported casualties.
Assess Damage in Dnipropetrovsk Region: Evaluate the need for additional air defense and protective measures in the Dnipropetrovsk region.
Conclusion
The military situation in Ukraine remains highly volatile, with intense fighting and significant developments on multiple fronts. Russian forces are making advances, particularly in the Pokrovsk and Kurakhove directions, while Ukrainian forces are actively countering these threats. Drone warfare is escalating, highlighting the need for enhanced counter-drone capabilities. The humanitarian situation continues to deteriorate, underscoring the need for civilian protection measures. International support and strategic communication remain crucial. The situation requires continuous monitoring, adaptation, and strategic decision-making to address the evolving challenges. The increasing use of drones, particularly FPV drones, by both sides underscores the need for enhanced counter-drone capabilities and strategies. The reported atrocities, command changes, and potential escalation in the Mediterranean add further complexity to the situation, requiring careful analysis and response. The potential deployment of EU peacekeepers, the threat in Sumy Oblast, and the ongoing attacks on civilian infrastructure highlight the need for comprehensive defensive and diplomatic strategies.
