Military Situation Update - December 14, 2024, 05:50 UTC
Major Updates
Krasnoarmiisk (Pokrovsk) Direction
Ukrainian Counterattacks and Russian Retaliation: Ukrainian counterattacks near Shevchenko and Novovasylivka resulted in intense fighting. Russian forces retaliated using artillery and drones. Ukrainian reserves were deployed near Shevchenko.
Russian Advance Towards Pokrovsk: Russian forces advanced to within 2km of Pokrovsk, infiltrating the city and capturing Novotroitskoye, Zarya, and Shevchenko.
Positional Fighting and Advances: Positional fighting was observed near Krasnoarmiysk, with a significant Russian advance on the southern flank.
Russian MoD Statement: Claimed improvements in tactical positions and significant Ukrainian losses.
Consolidation and Attacks: Russian forces are consolidating east of highway M-30, pushing towards Novoukrainka and attacking towards Dachnoye and Zelenoye.
Battles Near Pokrovsk: Ongoing battles near Shevchenko, Pischane, Novotroyitske, Novooleksiyivka, Novyy Trud, Dachenske, Lysivka, Myrolubivka, Promin, and Pokrovsk.
Pushkino and Veselyi Gai: Russian forces advanced near Pushkino and liberated Veselyi Gai.
Lysivka Advance: The Russian advance on the southern approach to Krasnoarmeisk has reached the central part of Lysivka.
Active Attacks on Krasnoarmeisk: Russian forces are actively attacking Krasnoarmeisk.
Bridge Destruction: Ukrainian forces destroyed a bridge leading to Pokrovsk.
Platoon Destruction: Russian forces report the destruction of a Ukrainian platoon near Velyka Novosilka.
Ukrainian Command Change: Ukrainian forces replaced the commander of the "Donetsk" Operational Tactical Group (OTG).
Demoralization in Kursk: A Russian battalion commander reported demoralization among Ukrainian forces in Kursk Oblast.
Aviation Strikes: Renewed Russian aviation strikes, including guided bombs on Stepnogirsk and Mala Tokmachka.
Repelled Assaults: Ukrainian forces repelled multiple Russian assaults, mostly in the Zaporizhzhia direction.
Russian Claims of Repelled Attacks: Russian forces claim to have repelled 20 Ukrainian attacks.
Aircraft Downing: A Ukrainian Su-24 bomber was shot down near Zolotoye, Donetsk Oblast.
Bridgehead Expansion: Russian forces are expanding their bridgehead towards Pokrovsk.
DRG Usage: Russian forces are using DRGs (sabotage and reconnaissance groups) near Pokrovsk.
Krasnoarmiisk-Nikolaevka Advances: Russian forces are advancing in the Krasnoarmiisk-Nikolaevka area.
Railway Line Advance: Russian forces are advancing along the railway line towards the "Dymytrova" mine.
DeepState Report: Confirms Russian occupation of Zelenyi Hai, Romanivka, Novotroitske, and Pushkine, with advances elsewhere.
Kurakhove Direction
Significant Russian Advances: Russian forces secured southeastern Uspenovka and raised their flag at the Kurakhove elevator and at Veselyi Hai. They are attempting to encircle Ukrainian forces near the Kurakhov thermal power plant.
Ukrainian Withdrawals: Ukrainian forces are withdrawing from portions of Yelizavetovka, Veselyi Hai, Annovka, Uspenovka, and Ostrovsky, while maintaining control of Yantarne.
Uspenovka Pocket: Russian forces secured positions in Uspenovka, with Ukrainian forces under threat of encirclement. The "Uspenovka pocket" has reportedly been eliminated.
Destruction of Ukrainian Grouping: Russian forces destroyed a Ukrainian grouping between Elizavetovka and Uspenovka, consolidating control in southern Kurakhovo.
Capture of Veselyi Gai: Russian forces captured Veselyi Gai, south of Kurakhovo.
New Ukrainian Drone: A new Ukrainian drone, the "Postman," is reported near Kurakhovo.
Repelled Advance: Ukrainian forces repelled a Russian advance near Konstantinovskoye.
Fighting in Kurakhove: Russian forces are advancing in the Kurakhove direction, with fighting in Kurakhove and along the Sukhie Yaly River.
Breakthrough Attempt: Russian forces are attempting a breakthrough in the Uspenovka-Annovka-Veselyi Hai sector.
Supply Route Cut-Off Attempt: Russian forces are attempting to cut off the supply route from Dachenske to Yantarne to Uspenovka.
Vremevsk Advance: Russian forces advanced on the Vremevsk direction.
Ukrainian Counterattacks: Ukrainian forces are counterattacking to impede Russian advances.
Mine Clearing and Tank Fire: Russian forces are using mine-clearing techniques in Pavlovka and direct tank fire.
Targeting Supply Lines: Russian forces are targeting supply lines to Neskuchne and Storozheve.
River Crossing Destruction: Russian forces destroyed a Ukrainian crossing over the river Mokrye Yaly with an airstrike.
Uspenovka and Konstantinopolskoye: Russian forces secured southeastern Uspenovka and pushed towards Konstantinopolskoye.
Fighting in Kurakhovo Center: Reports indicate fighting in Kurakhovo's town center and near Uspenivka.
Significant Casualties: Russian forces inflicted significant casualties on Ukrainian forces near Kurakhovo.
Kurakhovo Positions: Russian forces secured positions along Grueshevaya street, Lermontov street, the town's city council, and the southern portion of the town.
Zarya Capture: Russian forces have taken the town of Zarya.
Fighting Near Infrastructure: Fighting is ongoing near the fire station, school, lyceum, and high school in Kurakhovo.
Fighting Near Yelizavetovka and Sukhyi Yaly: Fighting continues near Yelizavetovka and Sukhyi Yaly.
Casualties Near Storozheve and Neskuchne: Over 20 Ukrainian soldiers reportedly killed near Storozheve and Neskuchne.
Captures Near Velyka Novosilka: Russian forces captured five Ukrainian soldiers near Velyka Novosilka.
Encirclement Risk: Ukrainian forces in Uspenovka, Hannevka, Trudove, Veselyi Gai, and Romanivka are at risk of encirclement, with heavy losses reported.
Critical Situation in Uspenovka: Ukrainian forces are facing a critical situation in Uspenovka.
Fierce Fighting in Uspenovka: Russian forces have advanced into Uspenovka, leading to fierce fighting.
Advances in Kurakhovo Outskirts: Russian forces advanced along Nagornaya-1 street on the southern outskirts of Kurakhovo.
Heavy Losses in Kurakhovo Region: Ukrainian forces are suffering heavy losses in the Kurakhovo region.
Uspenovka Blockade: Russian forces have blocked the Ukrainian grouping in Uspenovka.
Zholte Capture and Counterattacks: Russian forces captured Zholte, with failed Ukrainian counterattacks.
Advance in Central Kurakhovo: Russian forces advanced in central Kurakhovo.
Regrouping and Counterattack in Zholte: Ukrainian forces are trying to regroup in the Zholte area and launched a counterattack that was stopped.
Operational Encirclement and Losses: Ukrainian forces are reporting an operational encirclement near Kurakhovo and significant losses.
False Information: Reports that Ukrainian TV information is false regarding the situation near Kurakhove.
Allegations of Atrocities in Selidovo: Reports allege Ukrainian forces committed mass killings of civilians in Selidovo.
Liquidation of Colombian Mercenaries: Russian forces reportedly liquidated a unit of Colombian mercenaries near the LPR.
Toretsk and Chasov Yar
Russian forces are consolidating control in Toretsk and advancing near Dzerzhinsk. Fighting continues on the northern and western edge of the Fire-Resistant Compound in Chasov Yar.
Advances Near Dzerzhinsk: Russian forces reportedly advanced near Dzerzhinsk and gained control of the surrounding slag heaps.
New Update: Russian forces have partially dislodged Ukrainian forces from the fire-resistant compound in Chasov Yar.
Velyka Novosilka
Aleksandria Advance: Russian forces advanced into the region near Aleksandria.
Pushkino Control: Russian forces likely have full control of Pushkino.
Other Advances: Russian forces advanced near Kalinina, around Scherbinovka, and north of Rivnopil.
Drone Warfare
Extensive Drone Activity: Widespread drone activity across Ukraine, with multiple drones moving towards Kyiv, Sumy, Kharkiv, Poltava, Cherkasy, Kirovohrad, Vinnytsia, Kherson, Dnipro, and Zaporizhzhia regions. New groups are entering Sumy Oblast.
Air Raid Alert: Air raid alerts issued for Kyiv, Zaporizhzhia Oblast, and several other regions.
Russian Drone Movements: Multiple Russian drones targeting areas across Ukraine. Specific movements reported towards Kyiv, Kirovohrad, Kremenchuk, Cherkasy, Izium, Irpin, Oleksandriia, Nizhyn, Chernihiv, Zhytomyr, Uman, Bila Tserkva, Myrhohod, and other locations. Large groups reported in multiple regions.
Ukrainian Drone Success: Ukrainian forces report destroying a Russian "Plastun-3000" electronic warfare station and damaging a Russian command post with drones.
Increased FPV Drone Threat: Ukrainian forces face an increased threat from Russian FPV drones.
Drone Attacks in Germany: Unidentified drones spotted over military objects in Germany.
FPV Drone Usage: Extensive FPV drone usage reported, including the destruction of a Russian "Baba Yaga" drone and an M1 Abrams tank.
River Crossing Destruction: Russian army destroyed a crossing over the Mokrye Yaly river using an airstrike.
Reconnaissance and Guided Strikes: Russian forces are using reconnaissance drones followed by guided missile strikes.
Drone Technology: Reports of new Russian drone technology using fiber optics.
Successful Drone Operations: 14th and 16th Special Forces Brigades conducted successful drone operations.
Simultaneous Strikes: Two Ukrainian drones simultaneously struck a single target.
Electronic Warfare Station Destruction: Russia destroyed a Ukrainian "Plastun-3000" electronic warfare station.
Increased FPV Drone Threat: Ukrainian forces report an increased threat from FPV drones.
Drone Usage Near Kurakhovo and Novotroitskoye: Ukrainian forces are using drones near Kurakhovo and to strike Russian tanks.
Drone Destruction in Kupyansk: Russian FPV drone destroyed a Ukrainian "Baba Yaga" drone.
Increased Drone Activity: New groups of drones entering from Sumy region.
Novoshahtinsk Oil Refinery Attack: The Novoshahtinsk oil refinery in Rostov region reportedly attacked by drones.
Drone Interceptions: Russian forces destroyed multiple Ukrainian drones in Rostov and Belgorod regions.
Armored Vehicle Destruction: Russian forces destroyed a Ukrainian armored vehicle with a drone in Kharkiv region.
Anti-Drone Platform: Russian army presented images of a captured Ukrainian anti-drone platform.
Active Drone Destruction: Russian forces are actively attempting to destroy Ukrainian drones.
UAV Crash in Kyiv: Ukrainian UAV crashed in Kyiv's Pecherskyi district.
Multiple Drone Detections: Multiple drones detected moving towards various regions.
Drone Deployments in Sumy Oblast: Russian forces actively deploying drones in Sumy Oblast.
High Speed Object Detection: High-speed object detected in the Sumy area.
FPV Drone Attacks in Kharkiv: Ukrainian forces used FPV drones on Russian vehicles in Kharkiv region.
Drone Destruction of Vehicles: Russian forces claim to have destroyed Ukrainian vehicles with drones.
Fiber Optic Drone Attack: Possible use of a fiber optic drone by Ukrainian forces.
Modified Drone Attacks: Possible use of modified drones with tail fins and mini-bombs.
Precision-Guided FPV Drones: Ukrainian forces are using precision-guided FPV drones.
New Drone Entries: New drones entering Sumy from Kursk and northeast, and Zaporizhzhia from occupied territories.
Drone Movement Towards Cities: Drones moving towards Mirgorod, Kremenchug, Chernihiv, Kharkiv, Vinnitsya, Kirovohrad, Cherkasy, Zaporizhzhia, Dnipro, Kherson, Khmelnytska, Starokostyantyniv, and Kryvyi Rih.
Threats in Specific Locations: Threats in Nikopol, Starokostiantyniv, Kryvyi Rih, Chernihiv, Kherson, and Kharkiv.
Drone Movements: Specific movements reported in Sumy, Kharkiv, Poltava, and other regions.
Guided Air Bomb Attacks: Russian tactical aircraft launched guided air bombs in the Sumy region.
Threat in Kherson: Threat of Russian drones from the northeast in Kherson.
Successful Drone Strikes: Reports of multiple successful drone strikes by Russian forces near Kursk.
Active Drones: Large number of drones active across Ukraine.
Hostile Drones: Large number of hostile drones approaching or over Sumy.
New Drone Activity: New groups of drones entering Sumy, Dnipro, Kryvyi Rih, and Starokostiantyniv.
Drone Shootdowns: Some drones shot down in Orel, causing a fire at an oil depot.
Drone Movements: Specific movements and threats reported for multiple regions.
Drone Strikes and Countermeasures: Overnight, 37 Ukrainian drones were reportedly shot down over Russia. A fire at an oil depot in Orel, Russia, was caused by a drone attack.
Concentration of Forces in Sumy Oblast: Russian forces are concentrating significant forces in Sumy Oblast, with a potential strength of up to 12,000 personnel. They are considering an attack towards Kurchatov from the south.
Distraction Attacks: Possible distraction attacks are being considered near the Rylsk-Lgov-Kursk highway and near Glushkovo.
Strategic Objective: The Russian command aims to capture more internationally recognized territories to use as leverage in future negotiations.
Successful Drone Operations: Ukrainian air defense forces successfully detected and neutralized about ten hostile drones near Kyiv. Debris was reported in the Darnitsky district.
Casualty Report: The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reported an estimated 761,160 enemy losses since February 24, 2022, with 1,040 in the last 24 hours.
Equipment Losses: Significant losses reported in aircraft (369), helicopters (329), tanks (9,539), UAVs (20,229), armored vehicles (19,675), cruise missiles (2,861), artillery systems (21,102), warships/boats (28), MLRS (1,253), submarines (1), vehicles & fuel tanks (31,217), anti-aircraft systems (1,023), and special equipment (3,644).
Air Defense Activity: Ukrainian air defense worked overnight and in the morning in the Dnipropetrovsk region. Three private houses and a store were damaged in the Samarivskyi district, and a power line was affected. No casualties were reported.
Other Developments
Naval Activity: Russian missile carriers were not deployed to the Black or Azov Seas today, but were present in the Mediterranean.
Thailand Incident: Four people were killed and over 40 injured in an explosion at a Red Cross fair in Thailand. Two teenage suspects have been detained.
Russian Military Summary: A report from the Russian Ministry of Defense summarized the previous day's military activity, mentioning the destruction of 37 Ukrainian drones over Russia and the improvement of tactical positions in various directions.
Air Activity: Ukrainian Air Force reported activity of Russian tactical aviation in the northeast, with a threat of aviation weapons use.
Historical Commemoration: A message commemorated the birthday of Nikolai Gennadiyevich Basov, a Soviet physicist and Nobel laureate, known for his work on quantum electronics and lasers.
Meeting in Novo-Ogaryovo: Putin held a meeting with Nazarbayev in Novo-Ogaryovo, according to the Kremlin.
Belgian Military Reserves: Belgium plans to increase its NATO reserve troops threefold or fourfold in 2025.
Territorial Changes: A report indicated a net gain of 18.55 km² for Russian forces on December 13, 2024, with specific gains in Uspenovka, Annovka, Trudovoe, Kruglyakovka, Zarya, Novotroitskoye, Dachenskoye, Pushkino, Dzerzhinsk, Nelepovka, and Volchansk.
Kyiv Drone Activity: Ukrainian air defense forces detected and neutralized about ten hostile drones approaching Kyiv from different directions. Debris from downed drones was reported in the Darnitsky district.
French Proposal for Peacekeepers: French President Macron plans to propose the deployment of EU peacekeepers to Ukraine after a ceasefire, to be discussed at the EU summit on December 18-19.
Changes from Previous Situation (Based on older messages)
Continued Fighting: The situation remains intense, with ongoing fighting in multiple directions. Russian forces continue to make advances, particularly in the Pokrovsk and Kurakhove directions.
Drone Warfare Escalation: Drone activity has significantly increased, with both sides employing drones extensively for reconnaissance, targeting, and attacks. The use of FPV drones is particularly notable. Ukrainian forces are reporting an increased threat.
Russian Advances: Russian forces have made significant advances in several areas, including capturing key locations and pushing closer to strategic objectives like Pokrovsk and Kurakhove.
Ukrainian Countermeasures: Ukrainian forces are actively countering Russian advances through counterattacks, drone warfare, and defensive actions, such as destroying bridges to hinder Russian movements.
Increased Air Activity: Both sides report increased air activity, including the use of guided bombs and aviation strikes.
Significant Drone Usage: The extensive use of drones by both sides highlights their importance in the current conflict, with a particular focus on FPV drones and reconnaissance drones.
Territorial Gains and Losses: The reported territorial changes indicate a dynamic battlefield, with Russian forces making notable gains.
Humanitarian Concerns: The reports of civilian casualties and infrastructure damage continue, underscoring the severe humanitarian impact of the conflict.
Strategic Recommendations
Reinforce Key Locations: Prioritize the reinforcement of defenses in Pokrovsk and Kurakhove, given the significant Russian advances and strategic importance of these areas.
Enhance Counter-Drone Capabilities: Given the escalating drone threat, particularly from FPV drones, invest in and deploy advanced counter-drone technologies and strategies.
Secure Supply Lines: Ensure the security of supply lines, especially in areas where Russian forces are attempting to cut off Ukrainian access.
Air Defense: Strengthen air defense systems to counter Russian aviation strikes and drone attacks.
Intelligence Gathering: Enhance intelligence-gathering efforts to monitor Russian troop movements, identify strategic targets, and anticipate enemy actions.
International Support: Continue to seek and utilize international military and humanitarian aid to bolster Ukrainian defenses and address the humanitarian crisis.
Civilian Protection: Implement measures to protect civilian populations, including evacuations and the establishment of safe zones where possible.
Strategic Communication: Maintain clear and consistent communication with the public and international community regarding the situation on the ground and Ukrainian military efforts.
Address the increased drone threat: Reports indicate that Ukrainian forces are struggling to counter the increased use of Russian FPV drones. This requires immediate attention and the allocation of resources to develop or acquire effective countermeasures.
Investigate and respond to the reported atrocities in Selidovo: The allegations of mass killings by Ukrainian forces in Selidovo, if true, could have significant negative impacts on international support and troop morale. A thorough investigation is needed, with appropriate actions taken based on the findings.
Monitor and prepare for potential escalation in the Mediterranean: The presence of Russian missile carriers in the Mediterranean, coupled with increased tensions, suggests the possibility of a broader conflict. Close monitoring and strategic planning are needed to address this potential threat.
Address the implications of Belgium's planned increase in NATO reserve troops: While this could be seen as a positive development for NATO's collective defense, it also signals a potential escalation in the broader geopolitical context. The potential impacts on the conflict in Ukraine and regional stability should be carefully assessed.
Analyze the significance of Putin's meeting with Nazarbayev: Given Nazarbayev's historical role as a key regional leader and his potential influence, this meeting could have implications for the conflict. Further intelligence gathering and analysis are needed to understand the potential outcomes of this meeting.
Leverage the information about territorial changes: The reported gains by Russian forces, particularly in strategically important areas, should be used to inform operational planning and prioritize defensive efforts.
Counter the potential demoralizing effects of recent losses: The reported losses in the Kurakhove direction, coupled with the destruction of Ukrainian equipment and the risk of encirclement, could negatively impact troop morale. Efforts should be made to address these issues through effective communication, leadership, and support.
Exploit the intelligence regarding Russian drone activity: The detailed information about Russian drone movements and targeting patterns should be used to develop effective countermeasures, improve air defense strategies, and disrupt Russian operations.
Address the reported command change in the Ukrainian "Donetsk" OTG: The replacement of the commander could signal a shift in strategy or an attempt to address operational issues. The potential impacts of this change should be carefully monitored and assessed.
Investigate the reported demoralization among Ukrainian forces in Kursk Oblast: If true, this could indicate vulnerabilities that could be exploited by Russian forces. Further investigation is needed to confirm the reports and address any underlying issues.
Prepare for potential increased use of guided bombs: The reported use of guided bombs by Russian forces suggests a potential escalation in air attacks. Ukrainian air defenses should be prepared to counter this threat.
Address the potential implications of the reported destruction of a Ukrainian Su-24 bomber: The loss of this aircraft, if confirmed, could impact Ukrainian air capabilities. The circumstances of the incident should be investigated, and appropriate measures taken to mitigate future risks.
Utilize the information about the new Ukrainian drone "Postman": If this new drone proves to be effective, it could provide a significant advantage for Ukrainian forces. Its capabilities and potential deployment should be carefully assessed.
Prepare for potential deployment of EU peacekeepers: Analyze the potential impact of deploying EU peacekeepers to Ukraine following a ceasefire. This could significantly alter the dynamics of the conflict and post-conflict stabilization efforts.
Address the threat in Sumy Oblast: The reported concentration of Russian forces in Sumy Oblast and the potential attack towards Kurchatov require immediate attention. Reinforce defenses in the region and prepare for potential offensive actions.
Monitor Ukrainian casualty reports: The high number of reported casualties by the Ukrainian General Staff highlights the intensity of the conflict. Ensure adequate medical support and resources are available for Ukrainian forces.
Assess the damage in Dnipropetrovsk region: The reported damage to civilian infrastructure in the Dnipropetrovsk region underscores the ongoing threat to civilian areas. Evaluate the need for additional air defense and protective measures.
Conclusion
The military situation in Ukraine remains highly volatile, with intense fighting and significant developments on multiple fronts. Russian forces are making advances, particularly in the Pokrovsk and Kurakhove directions, while Ukrainian forces are actively countering these threats through a combination of defensive actions, counterattacks, and drone warfare. The extensive use of drones by both sides highlights their growing importance in modern warfare. The humanitarian situation continues to deteriorate, with reports of civilian casualties and infrastructure damage. International support and strategic communication remain crucial for Ukraine's defense efforts. The situation requires continuous monitoring, adaptation, and strategic decision-making to address the evolving challenges and achieve a favorable outcome. The increasing use of drones, particularly FPV drones, by both sides underscores the need for enhanced counter-drone capabilities and strategies. The reported atrocities, command changes, and potential escalation in the Mediterranean add further complexity to the situation, requiring careful analysis and response. The potential deployment of EU peacekeepers, the threat in Sumy Oblast, and the ongoing attacks on civilian infrastructure highlight the need for comprehensive defensive and diplomatic strategies.
