Situation Report

Updated Military Situation Analysis - December 12, 2024 (17:47:05 UTC)

Eastern Ukraine: Russian forces are continuing their advance on multiple axes. They have expanded their control south-east of Velyka Novosilka by over 4 by 1.6 kilometers and reportedly destroyed a Ukrainian platoon. Five Ukrainian troops have surrendered in this area. Russian forces are also advancing south-west of Velyka Novosilka towards Storozheve and Neskuchne, reporting over 20 Ukrainian casualties and additional captured Ukrainian soldiers. Ukrainian forces are counterattacking, particularly near Novotroitskoye, Novoelizavetovka, and Novoelenovka. Russian forces have made advances near Pischane, approximately 1km, and have taken an опорник (strongpoint) at the junction of several tree lines and are pushing towards Chynyshyne from the area of Shevchenko. Russian forces have taken control of Belhiysky (Belhiyka) and have advanced toward Slaviansk from Zarya. They are also close to capturing Krasne (Sontsivka) and are advancing towards the industrial zone near Kurakhove. There is also fighting near Zelenoe and Dachenske. Russian forces are pushing from the area of Staryi Terny towards Shevchenko.

Kursk Region: Russian forces continue to be present in areas of the Kursk region. The Ukrainian military claims to have repelled multiple Russian advances in the region, while the Russian military also states that it is making gains in the region.

Sumy Oblast: Multiple drones are entering Sumy Oblast, and moving further south towards Kyiv, and Poltava.

Zaporizhzhia Oblast: Air raid alarms have been activated in Zaporizhzhia Oblast due to increased drone activity. Fighting remains exceptionally harsh in the region.

Kherson Oblast: No major updates

Toretsk/Kramatorsk Direction: No major updates

Other Fronts: A high-speed target is moving in the direction of Sumy.

Drone Warfare: Hostile drones are moving towards Sumy from the northwest, and towards Kharkiv from the northeast. Drones are also moving towards Kyiv from the southeast, and towards Zaporizhzhia from the east and northeast. Drones are also moving south-west in the regions of Poltava and Sumy, and west in the areas of Chernihiv and Kyiv. A large number of drones are active in the Kyiv, Chernihiv, Cherkasy, Kirovohrad, Poltava, Sumy, Dnipropetrovsk, Zaporizhzhia and Kharkiv regions.

Logistics: No major updates.

Military Activity: Russian forces are using artillery and drones to cut supply lines to Neskuchne and Storozheve, but not cutting them off entirely. The Ukrainian military is counterattacking in various areas to try to impede Russian advances.

Other Conflicts: Russia has stated that it has made contact with a political committee of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) in Syria and is also in contact with Israel about the situation in Syria. There are reports of increased tensions in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Israeli forces have performed strikes in the Gaza Strip, killing 40 and injuring over 100 in the past day. IDF forces are operating in Beit Lahia, Jabalia and Rafah. There are reports of an attack on a bus south of Jerusalem, which has killed a child and left others injured. Hezbollah and Israel continue to observe a ceasefire. Russia has stated that it will help any Russian citizens who want to leave Syria. There are also reports of a group of Russian-speaking fighters in Syria stating they are about to attack Alawite civilians. There are reports that Russian forces are withdrawing from Syria.

Casualties: At least 11 people were killed in Zaporizhzhia on December 10th, and 22 more injured.

Political and Geopolitical:

• The EU has stated it needs to be involved in peace talks regarding the Ukrainian conflict, should these occur.
• The US has stated that it opposes the use of US-made missiles by the Ukrainian military inside Russia.
• Poland has stated that it will not be sending troops to Ukraine as part of a peacekeeping mission.
• The US House of Representatives has approved a 2025 defense budget that does not include a lend-lease agreement with Ukraine.
• Romania and Bulgaria will be joining the Schengen area on January 1st, 2025.
• Russia and India have signed a major new oil deal.
• Russia is now publicly stating that it is in contact with Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) in Syria, and is working with them to maintain Russian military bases.
• The Russian government is offering support to any Russian citizens who would like to leave Syria.

Internal Security:

• A trans-woman in Russia has been arrested and sent to a military recruiting office to be inducted into the army.
• An ex-governor of the Ryazan region of Russia has been arrested on bribery charges.
• A chief investor of the Russian football club "Khimki" has been found to not be required for pre-trial custody.
• There are reports of a Russian missile designer being killed by Ukrainian GUR agents.
• There are reports from Russian media that there is an ongoing dispute between the security forces of Hodorkovsky and Nevzlin related to the attack on Volkov.
• There are increasing reports of corruption and embezzlement in Russia and Ukraine.

Technological Warfare: No major updates.

Military Leadership Changes: President Zelenskyy has introduced a new head of ground forces, General-Major Mykhailo Drapatyi.

Other:

• A Russian media company has claimed that a Ukrainian special forces team killed a Russian missile designer.
• Ukraine will be discussing further anti-aircraft support with western allies next week.
• Ukraine is implementing a new standardized system for rolling blackouts.
• The Ukrainian government is making an effort to encourage Ukrainians currently residing in Germany to return home.
• The Ukrainian National Bank has increased its interest rate from 13.0% to 13.5% to fight inflation.
• The official currency rate of the dollar has decreased to 41.6588 UAH as of December 13th.

Casualties:

• Russian forces report destroying a Ukrainian platoon near Velyka Novosilka.
• Over 20 Ukrainian soldiers were reportedly killed near Storozheve and Neskuchne.
• Russian forces claim to have taken 5 Ukrainian soldiers prisoner near Velyka Novosilka, and additional Ukrainian soldiers in other regions of Ukraine.
• At least 11 people were killed in Zaporizhzhia on December 10th, and 22 more injured.
• Over 40 Palestinians were killed by Israeli attacks in the Gaza Strip in the past day, and over 100 were injured.

Strategic Operations: Russian forces are continuing to push deeper into Ukrainian territory on multiple fronts, with a focus on the areas near Velyka Novosilka, Storozheve, Neskuchne, Pischane, Chynyshyne, Belhiyka and Krasne. Ukrainian forces are attempting counterattacks in areas where Russian troops are making gains. Russian artillery is attempting to cut off supply lines to Storozheve and Neskuchne but have not yet done so. Ukraine is requesting additional anti-aircraft support from western allies in light of the increased drone and missile activity.

Updated Assessment of Key Areas:

• Velyka Novosilka: This area continues to be a major focal point of Russian offensive operations, with Russian forces reportedly advancing on multiple axes in and around the area. Russian forces are making gains in the area. There are reports of both troop losses and gains in the area, with a focus on infantry attacks and the use of artillery and drones.
• Pokrovsk/Kurakhove: Russian forces continue to push towards Kurakhove from multiple directions and have taken multiple villages, and are expanding control towards the industrial zones. The Ukrainian military is reporting heavy fighting in this area. The area is also the location of reports of mass desertions of Ukrainian forces due to heavy losses and low morale.
• Kursk Region: Russia and Ukraine continue to struggle for control in the Kursk region, with both reporting losses of the enemy.
• Sumy/Kharkiv/Kyiv: The reports of drone activity on multiple fronts, moving towards multiple important locations in this region highlight a widespread and concerning threat to this area. There also seems to be a pattern of drones moving towards the capital city, Kyiv.

Strategic Recommendations for Commanders:

1. Prioritize Air Defense: Given the increased drone and missile activity, it's crucial to prioritize bolstering anti-aircraft defenses, especially in the areas near Kyiv, Sumy and Kharkiv, and other major urban centers, and to secure more western aid in this regard.
2. Reinforce Velyka Novosilka: Increase defensive capabilities and allocate sufficient resources to counter the Russian offensive operations in the Velyka Novosilka area. Analyze Russian attack patterns and develop defensive strategies. Prioritize counter-battery fire against Russian artillery that is targeting supply lines to Storozheve and Neskuchne.
3. Secure Logistics: Ensure supply lines remain functional and protected, given the Russian attempts to cut supply lines and disrupt resupply efforts, and explore alternative supply routes, if required.
4. Monitor the Situation in Syria: Closely track developments in Syria, particularly with the Russian contacts with HTS, and the situation in Al Hol, along with actions by Israel. Monitor the Russian evacuation efforts in Syria, and the political situation in Syria, to assess the potential impacts on the war in Ukraine.
5. Address Troop Morale: Given reported demoralization, ensure clear communications to the troops, prioritize support, and address any housing issues for veterans and military members.
6. Counter Disinformation: Prepare for any messaging that may come from Russia and Russia-controlled media, especially those which may be designed to erode public trust in the war.
7. Assess New Threats: Given the presence of a trans-woman being arrested and sent to a recruitment office, there should be a review of any methods Russia might be employing to conscript citizens, especially those who may not be eligible or who might face discrimination.

Major Updates:

• Russian Advances: Russian forces have expanded their advances south-east of Velyka Novosilka, and southwest of Velyka Novosilka near Storozheve and Neskuchne, and are making gains near Pischane, Chynyshyne, Belhiyka, and Krasne. Ukrainian forces are mounting counterattacks.
• Increased Drone Activity: There is a concerningly high level of drone activity across multiple Ukrainian regions, with drones moving toward urban areas like Sumy, Kharkiv and Kyiv.
• Syria: Russia has stated that it is in contact with HTS and Israel regarding the situation in Syria. There are also reports that Russian forces are preparing for withdrawal.
• Casualties: Fighting is resulting in high casualties on both sides. In the past day alone, the Israeli-Palestinian conflict has resulted in over 40 deaths and over 100 injuries.
• Legal and Political: The Ukrainian National Bank has increased its interest rate from 13.0% to 13.5% to fight inflation, and the official currency rate of the dollar has decreased to 41.6588 UAH as of December 13th. There are also new reports of a trans woman being arrested by Russian authorities to be sent to a recruiting station.

This updated analysis provides a detailed snapshot of the current situation, identifying key areas of concern and providing strategic recommendations for commanders. It will need to be closely monitored for any changes or new updates.