Situation Report

Updated Military Situation Analysis - December 12, 2024 (17:17:05 UTC)

Eastern Ukraine: Russian forces continue to advance near Pokrovsk, with fighting in Shevchenko, and near Novotroitskoye, where the Ukrainian forces have blown up a bridge. Russian forces are not firmly established in the western areas of Novotroitskoye. There are reports of small Russian units infiltrating southern Pokrovsk. Russian forces have taken Zarya and are consolidating control in Toretsk.

Kursk Region: Russian forces have taken Novoiivanovka and continue to advance in the Sudzha district. Russian forces also used Ukrainian IMPs near several villages, and report that they are pushing toward the town of Sudzha, and they have requested a humanitarian corridor to evacuate civilians from Russian-occupied parts of the Kursk region. The Russian military claims that Ukrainian forces were involved in terrorist attacks in the Kursk region, and Ukrainian soldiers were sentenced to 14-15 years in prison for this. Ukrainian forces report repelling 22 Russian assaults with over 200 Ukrainian troops killed in the past 24 hours.

Sumy Oblast: Russian forces have advanced near Aleksandria and Esman. New groups of Russian drones are moving toward Poltava and Chernihiv Oblasts from Sumy Oblast, and entering Sumy Oblast from the Kursk region. Russian forces are reportedly advancing into Sumy Oblast, forcing a Ukrainian retreat.

Zaporizhzhia Oblast: Rolling blackouts and attacks on energy infrastructure continue, with a hospital hit by a Russian missile killing 6 and injuring 22. Ukrainian forces report high numbers of combat engagements in the Kurakhiv, Pokrovsk, and Vremivka directions. Fighting remains "exceptionally harsh," with Russian forces pushing south from Pokrovsk. Fights near numerous towns have been reported, and Russian advances continue south of Kurakhove. A group of Russian forces remains blocked within the Kurakhovo Thermal Power Plant. Ukrainian forces report that all supply routes to Kurakhovo are under Russian fire or control. 268 attacks were launched on 10 settlements in the region in the last 24 hours. A Russian strike on Stepnohirsk injured 3 rescuers. President Zelenskyy has visited Zaporizhzhia, and has opened the first underground school.

Kherson Oblast: Russian forces are targeting settlements on the left bank of the Dnieper river, including the area of Novaya Kahovka, where a gas pipeline and a high voltage line were damaged. Ukrainian forces report repelling 5 Russian assaults on the Kherson axis. Ukrainian artillery is targeting Russian positions on the right bank of the Dnieper with Grad rockets. There are multiple reports of civilian casualties in Kherson due to shelling and drone attacks.

Toretsk/Kramatorsk Direction: Russian air attacks are targeting Toretsk, and fighting reported near Toretsk, Chasiv Yar and Stupochky. Russian forces are reportedly advancing towards Toretsk.

Other Fronts: Russian air attacks target Krymske, Petrivka, Komar, Rozlyv and Vremivka of Donetsk region. Fighting continues near Zapadne, Pischane, Loziv and Zahryzove in the Kupyansk area. Russian forces are reportedly advancing in the direction of Lyubimovka, Zelonyy Shlyakh, and Tolstyy Lug. Fighting reported near Tverdokhlibove, Druzhelubivka, Novoyehorivka, Hrekivka, Makiyivka, Terny, Torske, Hryhorivka, Kopanka and Serebryanskyi forest in the Lyman axis. Fighting reported near Verkhnokamyanske in the Sieversk axis. Fighting reported near Trudove, Kostyantynopolske, Sukhykh Yaliv, Blahodatne and Novodarivka in the Vremivka axis. Fighting reported near Novoandriyivka in the Orikhiv axis. Fighting has also been reported in the area of Kolesnikovka, Kruglyakovka and Zagryzovo.

Drone Warfare: Drone usage is escalating on both sides. Russia is using FPV drones to destroy Ukrainian equipment, and Zala Lancets to shoot down Ukrainian drones. Russia has deployed the Molniya 2.0 drone, resistant to REB. Ukrainian forces have shot down a Russian Supercam drone. New groups of enemy drones are moving south in northern Chernihiv Oblast, and from Sumy Oblast toward Poltava and Chernihiv oblasts, and from Kharkiv Oblast to Dnipropetrovsk. Russian drones are moving toward Poltava, Chernihiv and Cherkasy Oblasts. Ukrainian forces report that Russian tactical aviation is launching guided aerial bombs in Sumy and Donetsk Oblasts, and Kharkiv.

Logistics: Supply lines in contested regions are under heavy fire. Russian facilities inside Russia are being targeted with Ukrainian drones and missiles. Russia is also reportedly moving troops and equipment by air in the Kharkiv region using Mi-26 helicopters to reinforce forces. Russian forces are reported to be using civilian vehicles to disguise themselves. Russian state media is stating there is an increasing number of requests from the public about social assistance, particularly around housing and transportation.

Military Activity: Russian forces have taken Zolote and are reported to have made advances near Novotroiske, Uspenivka, Kurakhove, and Sontsivka, and near Veselyi Hai. The Ukrainian military is also actively utilizing anti-tank guided missiles. A Ukrainian artillery unit set a new record for long-range strikes. One Russian FPV operator destroyed a Ukrainian "Plastun-3000" electronic warfare station. Ukrainian forces are destroying Russian military vehicles near the village of Zeloniy Shlyakh. Russian forces appear to be attempting an encirclement of forces in Kurakhove. Ukrainian forces claim to have destroyed three BMD-2 vehicles and killed 14 Russian soldiers in Kursk Oblast.

Other Conflicts: A political crisis has escalated in Jubaland, Somalia. Russian forces are reportedly withdrawing from Syria but naval assets remain. Russia is nearing an agreement with the new Syrian leadership to retain their two military bases in Tartus and Khmeimim. 4-5 military transport planes are flying daily between Khmeimim and Russian airfields. Ships are still moving military equipment from Syria to the base in Tartus. Russia has claimed that all of their naval nuclear forces have been fully upgraded. Russia has also proposed to send Syrian president Assad to rebuild the Donbas, and given Russian citizenship. There are now protests in Al-Hol, where ISIS forces are being guarded by Kurdish forces.

Casualties: More than 200 Ukrainian troops were reportedly killed in the Kursk region over the past 24 hours. A Ukrainian woman was accused of fraud for allegedly taking money from the wife of an Azovstal defender. Three rescuers have been injured in Stepnohirsk, Zaporizhzhia. Ukrainian forces report that Russian losses near Pokrovsk are high, with an average of 400 per day in December. Three Ukrainian soldiers have reportedly died due to fraudulently signed contracts. Russian drone strikes on Kherson have led to a civilian fatality, as well as multiple injuries. The Ukrainian military reports that it has destroyed a Russian armored vehicle and personnel in the Kursk region. Ukrainian forces claim to have destroyed three BMD-2 vehicles and killed 14 Russian soldiers in Kursk Oblast.

Political and Geopolitical:

• The US Congress is requesting an assessment on reduced support for Ukraine and the threat of aggression from China, Iran, and North Korea.
• Macron is in Warsaw discussing peacekeeping forces in Ukraine, with Poland stating it will not send troops.
• Russia is seeking prisoner exchanges and signaling a willingness to negotiate based on preconditions Ukraine won't agree to. Russia may be engaging in peace talks with foreign partners while demanding Ukrainian withdrawal from the Kursk region. Russia is claiming that it is willing to return to peace talks if Ukraine accepts Russia's terms. President Orban of Hungary has proposed a prisoner exchange to the Russian government, but the Ukrainian government rejected this proposal.
• NATO is concerned about the use of Oreshnik missiles, and Belarus is deploying the "Kulisas" communication system. NATO's Secretary General stated that military expenses within NATO countries need to exceed 3% and called for pension and welfare cuts to afford more weapons. NATO's Secretary General stated that Russia is rebuilding its forces faster than anticipated, although they don't think it will lead to a direct attack from Russia.
• The Biden administration is considering stricter sanctions on Russian oil exports, while Canada has approved a ~$600 million military aid package for Ukraine. The US State Department has approved a potential sale of F-16 equipment and maintenance to Kyiv. The Ukrainian president has met with military leadership in Zaporizhzhia to address the air defense of that region.
• Trump opposes US-made long-range missile strikes into Russia, citing escalation. Trump stated that if Ukraine refuses negotiations with Russia, he will cut off support.
• Syria remains volatile with reports of executions, terrorism, large-scale refugee movements, and ISIS gaining power. Russia has begun withdrawing from Syria, but has also stated it may be keeping its two military bases. A meeting is taking place between the Syrian government and Russian authorities regarding these bases.
• Lukashenko has stated that Belarus is planning to use Oreshnik missiles, and Belarus has received several dozen nuclear warheads.
• Iran has claimed they warned Syria three months prior about Israeli attacks.
• A Slovakian politician has stated that Western powers may attempt to divide Ukraine, similarly to Czechoslovakia in 1938, and will not be invited to join NATO after the defeat. A Russian politician, Galuzin, has stated that a pact between Russia and North Korea will force the US to consider the destructive consequences if it attacks either country.
• The Russian government has stated that it has fully modernized its strategic nuclear arsenal.
• Reuters states that a new agreement between Russia and India to supply oil could generate 13 billion USD in revenue for Russia annually. Rosneft has entered into a 10-year agreement to supply Reliance with 500,000 barrels of oil per day.
• Telegram has blocked over 15 million accounts for violating their community guidelines, and they have implemented an AI tool to prevent these actions. Telegram has also reported a large number of terrorist activity on the platform.
• Russia has stated it has made contact with a political committee of the group "Hayat Tahrir al-Sham" in Syria.

Internal Security:

• There are increasing reports of corruption and internal issues, low morale, and insufficient support within the Ukrainian military. Ukrainian forces are lacking engineering personnel and experiencing friendly fire incidents. 30 separate investigations into embezzlement are currently active. The Ukrainian military is now implementing a policy of basic military training within the brigades. Ukrainian President Zelenskyy formally introduced the new commander of the Support Forces, General-Major Mykhailo Drapatyi, as the new commander of the Ukrainian ground forces. Conscription rates in Ukraine have dropped from 35,000 to 20,000 a month, and the US is pushing for this to be lowered to 18 years of age.
• Russia is implementing new fines for public intoxication and traffic offenses, and is experiencing low morale within their ranks. Russia has arrested 125 people for corruption in the defense industry and 11 for issues related to defense orders. There have been multiple reports of Russian troops using pigs to attempt to reveal Ukrainian firing positions. A Russian battalion commander reported demoralization among Ukrainian forces in Kursk Oblast. There are increasing reports of corruption in the Russian military as well as low morale. Russian state media received over 500,000 requests for Putin’s direct-line call, largely pertaining to transport, housing, medical care, and social benefits. Russia is implementing a recruiting campaign in Crimea for personnel aged between 18 and 40. Russia has banned civilian drone usage. 5 business owners have been arrested for the fraudulent actions of a Russian football club investor. Russia has also postponed implementation of new currency bills until 2028.
• The Ukrainian government is implementing changes to restrictions on credit card transfers, and has received $454 million in healthcare funding. There are increasing protests against conscription. A Ukrainian supporter of the Shariy Party was arrested for plotting to overthrow the government, and a group of propagandists from outside of Ukraine were also uncovered. A wave of fake reports of mine placement have been sent to various locations in Ukraine. There have been multiple reports of phishing sites used to steal money from citizens. There are reports of an increasing amount of public unrest as conscription efforts are continuing to be rolled out across Ukraine.
• Russia is offering free IT training and claims its economy is growing by 3.9%.
• A German citizen with Russian citizenship was arrested for planning to sabotage railway tracks. The FSB announced the arrest of 11 call center employees working for the SBU and a former Georgian defense minister, involved in arson attacks and disinformation campaigns. Some countries are denying asylum to Ukrainians residing far from the front lines. There are increasing reports of criminal activity such as stealing from delivery depots. There are also reports of a soldier returning from the SMO in Russia being arrested for a supposed rape.
• A Ukrainian woman has been accused of fraud for allegedly taking money from the wife of an Azovstal defender.
• A soldier returning from the SMO in Russia has been arrested for a supposed rape.
• Three Ukrainian conscripts have reportedly died due to false contracts.

Technological Warfare: Drone warfare continues to escalate, with both sides testing new drones and anti-drone technology. Russia may be capable of producing 25 Oreshnik long-range ballistic missiles per month. Ukrainian forces have successfully shot down a Russian Supercam drone. Russian forces are using Zala Lancet drones to shoot down Ukrainian drones. A new Ukrainian missile, “Ruta” has been successfully tested.

• A new US drone has been tested in Ukraine, called the V-Bat.
• The Ukrainian military is using drones to target Russian forces and equipment.
• A Russian FPV drone successfully destroyed a Ukrainian "Plastun-3000" electronic warfare station.
• The Ukrainian military has been focusing on improving its counter drone capabilities.
• Russia has claimed that they have a system for identifying and destroying drones.
• Russia has reported using an FPV drone to destroy a Ukrainian Humvee.

Military Leadership Changes: Ukrainian President Zelenskyy formally introduced the new commander of the Support Forces, General-Major Mykhailo Drapatyi, as the new commander of the ground forces. Zelenskyy has met with military leadership in Zaporizhzhia to address the air defense of that region. The Ukrainian military is now implementing a policy of basic military training within the brigades. There have been numerous reports of Ukrainian military leadership being criticized for incompetence. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that their forces are preparing for all possible scenarios for the enemy’s actions.

Other:

• Xi Jinping reiterated China's commitment to de-escalation principles and called for a resolution of the Ukrainian crisis.
• There are increasing reports of internal corruption and are trying to develop the IT industry.
• Russia may be engaging in peace talks with foreign partners while demanding Ukrainian withdrawal from the Kursk region.
• Syrian Islamists have reportedly taken control of Deir ez-Zor.
• IAEA vehicles continue to be targeted by drone strikes.
• A Ukrainian artillery unit has set a new record for long-range strikes in active combat.
• The Russian government may be engaging in peace talks with foreign partners while demanding Ukrainian withdrawal from the Kursk region.
• Trump said that Zelenskyy's strikes into Russia were a mistake.
• A new Russian law is targeting those who spread fake information about the Russian army, threatening them with being placed on the list of terrorists and extremists. A new Russian media campaign is stating that Ukrainians are being forcibly returned from Europe and sent to the front lines. A Russian Telegram channel posted a meme reinforcing the idea that Ukrainian soldiers do not want to fight.
• Ukrainian authorities have stated that Russian forces are using new methods of locating Ukrainian forces and new types of long range guided missiles.
• Russia is reporting that it has fully updated its naval nuclear forces, and that those forces are a guarantee of safety on a global scale. Russia is claiming that its land-based nuclear forces are its primary deterrence, rather than naval forces, as is common in western countries.
• A Russian investigative committee has charged two captured Ukrainian soldiers with being terrorists and has stated they will face long prison sentences.
• A Russian media channel is claiming that a Russian oil company, Rosneft, has signed a 10-year agreement to supply India with 500,000 barrels of oil daily.
• The head of the Russian Federal Security Service (FSB), Bortnikov, has stated that they are now actively recruiting personnel between 18 and 40 for border operations.
• There are reports that a new round of fake reports of mine placement have been sent to locations across Ukraine.
• There are reports of an increasing amount of public unrest as conscription efforts are continuing to be rolled out across Ukraine.
• The head of the Ukrainian Support Forces met with the Ukrainian President and discussed the importance of personnel, technology, and management.
• Zelenskyy held a meeting with military leadership to discuss air defense and other security concerns in the Zaporizhzhia region.
• The Ukrainian government is now pushing for brigades to have more authority over resource allocation.
• The Ukrainian president has visited the frontlines in Zaporizhzhia, and opened the first underground school.
• Ukrainian forces report high numbers of combat engagements in the Kurakhiv, Pokrovsk, and Vremivka directions.
• Russia is now reported to be targeting civilian populations in Kherson with drone strikes, and Nikopol.
• Ukraine has begun evacuating civilians from Malaya Tokmachka due to intense fighting.
• Ukrainian forces report that Russian losses near Pokrovsk are high, with an average of 400 casualties per day in December.
• Russian troops in Syria are reportedly looting and drinking while waiting for evacuation.
• A new report indicates that NATO's Secretary General has called for European countries to cut their social welfare spending in favor of military spending.
• The Russian government may resume peace talks if Ukraine acknowledges their current geopolitical situation.
• The Ukrainian government has stated that there have been over a hundred attacks on Ukrainian nuclear objects by Russia.
• Russia is now reported to be targeting civilian populations in Kherson with drone strikes.
• A strategic alliance between Russia and North Korea will force the US to consider the destructive consequences if they attack either country.
• Russia and India have signed a new oil supply agreement for 500,000 barrels per day for 10 years, which will generate 13 billion USD in revenue per year for Russia.
• Russia is close to an agreement with the new Syrian leadership to retain its two military bases.
• Ukraine has stated that Russia’s claim of the capture of Novoiivanovka is false, but reports from multiple other sources suggest this capture was valid.
• Russia has claimed it has destroyed a Ukrainian mobile firing group in Kharkiv Oblast.
• The Ukrainian military has stated that Russian losses are high near Pokrovsk.
• Ukraine has reported a high level of drone activity from Russia in Kharkiv, Donetsk, Sumy, Chernihiv, Poltava and Cherkasy oblasts.
• The Russian military has taken the settlement of Zarya and claim gains near Novotroiske, Uspenivka, Kurakhove, and Sontsivka.
• The head of the Ukrainian military, General Sirsky, has stated that Ukrainian forces are ready for all potential Russian operations in and around Pokrovsk.
• The Ukrainian military has reported that the Russian forces are using guided bombs in the Kharkiv, Donetsk, and Sumy oblasts.
• The Russian side has requested a humanitarian corridor to evacuate civilians from Russian-occupied parts of the Kursk region, which also implies that they are facing increased resistance in the region.
• The Ukrainian air force reports tactical aircraft are launching guided bombs in Kharkiv and Sumy Oblasts.
• The Russian side has claimed to have taken Novoiivanovka in Kursk Oblast, which indicates they are not making gains in that region.
• Ukrainian forces have stated that Russian troops are trapped in a power plant near Kurakhovo.
• A Russian official has claimed the Russian gas prices will increase for all consumers in 2025, which might indicate they are looking for additional funding.
• There is a claim by a pro-Russian journalist that the Russian side has taken Uspenovka.
• The Russian military has reported that a Russian mobile firing group was destroyed in Kharkiv oblast.

Casualties:

• Russian forces claimed more than 200 Ukrainian troop losses in the Kursk region, while Ukrainian forces also claim large losses of Russian equipment.
• More than 200 Ukrainian troops were reportedly killed in the Kursk region over the past 24 hours.
• The Ukrainian military has stated Russian loses are high around Pokrovsk with an average of 400 casualties per day in December.
• Russian drone strikes on Kherson have led to a civilian fatality, as well as multiple injuries.
• Three Ukrainian conscripts have reportedly died due to false contracts.
• Russian forces are reported to have lost 1390 personnel, 6 tanks, 28 armored vehicles, 5 artillery systems and 54 automobiles.
• Ukrainian forces claim to have destroyed three BMD-2 vehicles and killed 14 Russian soldiers in Kursk Oblast.

Strategic Operations: Ukrainian forces are testing new mobilization strategies. Russian forces have reported using FPV drones to target Ukrainian positions and equipment. The Ukrainian military reported 138 combat engagements, mostly focused on the Kurakhiv, Pokrovsk, and Vremivka directions. Ukrainian military forces are also claiming high casualties on Russian forces in the Kursk region. Russian forces are conducting offensive operations in the Kursk region, and advances into Donetsk and Sumy Oblasts. Ukrainian forces continue to use drones effectively to target Russian equipment. The Ukrainian forces have started a training program within the brigades. Ukrainian forces remotely laid mines in the LNR, using cassette munitions and German anti-tank mines. Russian forces are reportedly conducting operations in and around the villages of Lyubimovka, Zelonyy Shlyakh, and Tolstyy Lug, and are reportedly pushing toward the town of Sudzha in Kursk Oblast. Ukrainian forces are utilizing IMP (improvised military positions) left behind by the Russian military. Russian forces have been making progress near Uspenovka. Ukrainian forces have reported the successful use of FPV drones in destroying Russian positions and vehicles.

Updated Assessment of Key Areas:

• The area around Novotroitskoye and Toretsk remains contested with heavy fighting reported. The situation is dynamic with attacks and counterattacks. Russian forces are reportedly advancing towards Toretsk. The Russian military has made advancements near Novotroitskoye. The Ukrainian military has stated that there has been an infiltration of small Russian units into Pokrovsk. Russian forces are pushing from Pokrovsk towards Kurakhove. Ukrainian forces are reporting high casualty rates in the Pokrovsk area.
• Heavy drone use by both sides in the Kursk and Sumy Oblasts suggests heavy fighting is ongoing. The Russian advances near Sudzha and Sverdlikovo show a continued offensive pressure. There has also been a Russian advance into Sumy Oblast. There is an increase in the number of enemy drones moving into the Sumy region. New groups of Russian drones are now targeting areas in Cherkassy as well as areas in Sumy, Poltava and Chernihiv oblasts, and as far as Dnipropetrovsk oblast. Russian forces are reportedly pushing towards the town of Sudzha. There are reported Russian attacks on Ukrainian positions near Lyubimovka, Zelonyy Shlyakh, and Tolstyy Lug.
• The use of drones continues to be a dominant factor, with both sides using them for surveillance, strikes, and logistics. New drones and counter-drone technology are being tested by both sides.
• Logistical routes in all contested regions are under heavy fire. Russian facilities inside Russia are also being targeted by drones and missiles. Russian forces appear to be experiencing logistical challenges.
• Propaganda and disinformation continue, with both sides attempting to influence public opinion.
• Instability appears to be growing within both Russia and Ukraine, leading to internal issues and challenges. There have been reports of corruption, low morale and desertion within the Russian and Ukrainian forces.
• The situation in Syria is causing increased violence and instability. Russia is withdrawing its military forces from Syria. However, naval assets and two military bases will remain. There are reports of Russian soldiers looting while waiting for evacuation.
• IAEA vehicles continue to be targeted in the region of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power plant. Ukrainian forces have successfully targeted Russian convoys on main thoroughfares.
• The Ukrainian military command is being criticized for incompetence and poor decisions.
• The Russian military has released information about Russian forces taking the settlements of Zarya and Sontsivka.
• The Ukrainian military has stated that the area around Pokrovsk is still under very intense fighting, and their troops are sustaining very heavy casualties. The front line seems to be under pressure from Russian forces advancing near Starie Terny towards Dachnoe, which impacts the Kurakhove-Zaporizhzhia highway. The Ukrainian military has stated that a group of Russian forces is currently trapped inside a power plant near Kurakhovo, and their supply lines have been cut.
• Russian forces have made significant advances in and around the town of Kurakhovo. Russian forces are reportedly advancing within the town of Uspenovka. Ukrainian forces have reportedly destroyed a Russian armored unit in Kharkiv.
• The Russian military is using FPV drones to target Ukrainian positions, including electronic warfare stations.
• Ukrainian forces are remotely placing anti-tank mines in Russian controlled regions.
• The Russian military has been conducting operations in and around the villages of Lyubimovka, Zelonyy Shlyakh, and Tolstyy Lug, and are reportedly pushing toward the town of Sudzha in Kursk Oblast.
• Ukrainian forces have suffered heavy losses near Kurakhovo and Pokrovsk.
• Russian forces appear to be establishing defensive positions in the Kupyansk region.
• The Ukrainian military has reported that Russian losses in the Pokrovsk direction are high, with an average of 400 losses daily in December.
• Russian forces have advanced in the Donetsk and Kharkiv regions, and have also made advances in Sumy Oblast.
• Ukrainian forces are reportedly trapped in an operational encirclement near Annovka, south of Kurakhovo.
• There are new reports of a significant number of Russian drones flying into many locations in Ukraine from many different directions.
• The Russian side has reported the destruction of a Ukrainian mobile firing group in Kharkiv oblast.
• The Russian side has stated they have taken the settlement of Novoiivanovka in Kursk Oblast, but the Ukrainian side says this is false.
• The Ukrainian military has stated that 3 BMD-2 armored vehicles were destroyed by the 36th Separate Marine Brigade in the Kursk region.
• The head of the Ukrainian military, General Sirsky, has stated that Ukrainian forces are ready for all potential Russian operations in and around Pokrovsk.
• A Russian official has claimed that gas prices in Russia will increase by over 10% in July 2025.

Strategic Recommendations for Commanders:

1. Reinforce defensive positions, especially around Pokrovsk, Kurakhovo, and Toretsk, and along the border regions of Sumy, Kharkiv, and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts. Reassess defensive lines in those areas where Russian forces have made recent advances.
2. Continue to implement enhanced counter-drone measures and technologies, and research new counter-drone methods. Increase counter-intelligence operations to locate hidden personnel and drone operators. Implement and maintain strategies to improve troop morale and address any communication and supply chain issues. Continue investigating any claims of corruption and any reported orders to commit suicide rather than be captured.
3. Focus operations on the border between Russia and Ukraine and implement strategies to protect against incursions, especially in Kursk and Sumy Oblasts. Evaluate and prioritize defense in the Sumy region, given the recent advance and movement of enemy drones. Create fortified positions and consider a remote mining program to make Russian advances more difficult. Reassess the threat level posed by Russian forces in the Kursk region, and their attempt to use a humanitarian corridor for their forces in that region.
4. Secure supply lines with extra patrols and defenses, especially major transport arteries leading to key locations.
5. Continue to identify and target financial networks that support illicit military operations.
6. Develop and deploy an effective counter-information strategy to combat disinformation narratives, and monitor propaganda and misinformation on communications platforms like Telegram. Implement countermeasures to propaganda that is designed to lower morale, and emphasize the need to support the military effort.
7. Prioritize civilian protection and support services for displaced people. Maintain reliable access to water and communication, and access to medical support. Address the rising civilian casualties in areas like Zaporizhzhia, Kherson, Nikopol and the Kursk region. Ensure safe passage for civilians near Kursk Oblast.
8. Continue to work with international partners to limit Russia’s ability to circumvent international sanctions. Monitor India’s oil supply deal with Russia and take steps to make the agreement more difficult or more expensive for Russia.
9. Monitor the situation in Syria and analyze its potential impacts on regional stability and the possibility of a resurgence of terrorist groups. Monitor the withdrawal of Russian forces from Syria, and their potential influence in the Russia-Ukraine conflict.
10. Monitor Russian mobilization and recruitment campaigns. Monitor recruitment efforts of the FSB in Crimea.
11. Prepare for potential chemical, biological, radiological, and nuclear threats, and be aware of the confirmed presence of nuclear weapons in Belarus.
12. Analyze the potential impacts of deploying European Peacekeepers and prepare for the possibility of post-conflict operations with peacekeeper forces.
13. Improve logistical operations, especially in areas experiencing supply chain disruptions. Investigate any corruption leading to logistical issues. Improve logistical support to Ukrainian drone units. Prioritize the resupply of the areas around Pokrovsk, as well as the troops in the Kursk and Sumy region.
14. Maintain active intelligence and surveillance of all military activity to assess strengths and weaknesses, and monitor for acts of sabotage in both Russia and Ukraine. Improve intelligence capabilities to counteract the effective use of drones by Russia.
15. Monitor and assess the impacts of economic and political instability within Russia and Ukraine. Monitor the impact of new financial restrictions in Ukraine. Monitor internal dissent within Russia due to its military engagement.
16. Investigate and address reports of atrocities coming from Kursk Oblast and from Syria. Address reports of extra-judicial killings, particularly those involving surrendering combatants. Clarify rules of engagement to prevent similar events.
17. Assess the impact of the reported deaths of prominent Syrian figures, including a chemist and a theologian.
18. Address the large-scale surrender of Syrian soldiers.
19. Address the potential for increased ballistic missile attacks from Belarus.
20. Address the increased frequency of air raid sirens in Western and Northern Ukraine.
21. Assess the implications of the resumption of Russian passenger rail service with China and North Korea.
22. Address the potential impact of the reported inappropriate behavior of a Scottish council leader toward Ukrainian refugees.
23. Assess the implications of the proposed Ukrainian arms export policy.
24. Monitor weather conditions and account for the impact on military operations and civilian populations. The coming cold weather should be accounted for in all logistical planning.
25. Assess the threat level and prepare for possible increased Russian use of long-range ballistic missiles.
26. Reassess the threat level posed by the confirmed presence of nuclear weapons in Belarus.
27. Continue to address reports of corruption within both the Ukrainian military and civilian sectors.
28. Monitor and analyze reports of Russia using foreign troops in Ukraine, including forces from North Korea.
29. Address the vulnerability of supply and production centers inside Russia and assess the impact of these strikes on Russia's war-making capabilities.
30. Analyze the impact of new Russian policies which are increasing the amount of fines that citizens will have to pay.
31. Monitor and assess the implications of Belarus’s plan to deploy Oreshnik missiles, and monitor the implications of increased drone activity in Sumy and Kharkhiv. Monitor the locations of Russian long range missile batteries and assess their threat. Implement counter measures to defend from ballistic missile strikes in the region.
32. Assess the implications of growing ties between Russia and China.
33. Monitor the implications of the ongoing rolling blackouts in Ukraine.
34. Monitor the activity of the Red Cross, WHO, OSCE, UN, and other international organizations to ensure the safety of international personnel and the reliability of data being reported.
35. Anticipate severe weather and prepare to operate in such conditions.
36. Monitor Ukrainian civilian infrastructure, civilian protests, and other sources of public unrest. Monitor and counteract Russian information operations targeting the civilian population.
37. Evaluate the impact of new leadership within the Ukrainian ground forces, and the newly created basic military training program within brigades.
38. Investigate and clarify the nature of the recent fighting around Uspenovka, and the potential capture of that town.
39. Analyze the reasons and potential implications of the reported capture of Novoiivanovka in the Kursk region.
40. Closely monitor all drone activity in and around the Sumy, Kharkiv, Chernihiv, Poltava and Cherkasy oblasts. Implement countermeasures to prevent enemy drones from entering this area.
41. Increase focus on air defense across all major Ukrainian urban areas, particularly in Kyiv.
42. Closely monitor the reports of Ukrainian forces being in an operational encirclement near Annovka, south of Kurakhovo, and implement appropriate counter-measures.
43. Assess the impact of the reported 10% gas price increase that Russia has announced.
44. Evaluate reports of Russia having made contact with a political committee of the group “Hayat Tahrir al-Sham” in Syria.
45. Monitor and address reports of protests and possible instability in Al-Hol, Syria, and potential threats to the prison there which contains ISIS fighters.

Major Updates:

• Russian Advances: Russian forces continue to make gains near Pokrovsk and Kurakhove, and have taken the settlement of Zarya. They are consolidating control over Toretsk, and have captured Novoiivanovka in the Kursk region, but have been repelled from many of their attempts to advance in this region. Russian forces have also made advances into Sumy Oblast. They are making significant gains in and around Kurakhove, and reports of Ukrainian forces being in an operational encirclement.
• Increased Drone Activity: Drone activity from both sides is intensifying, with Russian drones moving towards Poltava, Chernihiv and Cherkasy Oblasts, and Russian tactical aviation using guided bombs in Sumy, Donetsk and Kharkiv oblasts. Ukrainian drones are targeting Russian military facilities and equipment, including inside of Russia.
• Syria: The situation in Syria remains unstable, with Russian forces withdrawing but potentially keeping its naval assets and two military bases. A new Syrian government may be forming.
• Kursk: Russia has requested a humanitarian corridor to allow for civilians to be removed from areas it occupies, and is accusing the Ukrainian military of terrorism in the area, suggesting that the Russian position in the area may be precarious.
• Ukrainian Leadership: Ukraine's President has formally introduced a new commander for the ground forces, and has met with military leadership in Zaporizhzhia. Ukraine is also working to improve its training processes. Ukraine is also lobbying for more air defense systems from its partners.
• Casualties: High numbers of casualties continue to be reported on both sides. The Ukrainian military has stated that Russian forces are losing over 400 soldiers a day around Pokrovsk.
• Political and Economic: Russia and India have signed a major new oil agreement that will provide Russia with significant revenue. Russia has stated that gas prices will increase in 2025.

This updated analysis provides a detailed snapshot of the current situation, identifying key areas of concern and providing strategic recommendations for commanders. It will need to be closely monitored for any changes or new updates.