Situation Report

Updated Military Situation Analysis - December 12, 2024 (16:47:05 UTC)

Eastern Ukraine: Russian forces control Zarya and have advanced near Novotroiske, Uspenivka, Kurakhove, Sontsivka, and Veselyi Hai. Fighting persists near Novotroitskoye and Toretsk, with Russian infiltration reported in Pokrovsk. Russian forces also made gains near Scherbynivka and Leonidivka and are consolidating control in Toretsk. Russian forces are pushing south from Pokrovsk towards Kurakhove.

Kursk Region: Russian forces have taken Novoiivanovka and continue to advance in the Sudzha district, particularly near Novoivanovka, the forests near Mala Loknya, Sverdlikovo and Martynovka. There are reports of a Ukrainian unit surrendering. Ukrainian forces report repelling 22 Russian assaults. Over 200 Ukrainian troops were killed in the past 24 hours. Russian forces are reportedly pushing toward the town of Sudzha. Russian forces also used Ukrainian IMPs (improvised military positions) near the villages of Lyubimovka, Zelonyy Shlyakh, and Tolstyy Lug. Russian forces have requested a humanitarian corridor to evacuate civilians from Russian-occupied parts of the Kursk region. The Russian military claims that Ukrainian forces were involved in terrorist attacks in the Kursk region, and Ukrainian soldiers were sentenced to 14-15 years in prison for this.

Sumy Oblast: Russian forces have advanced near Aleksandria and Esman, with artillery strikes on a railway station. New groups of Russian drones are moving toward Poltava and Chernihiv Oblasts from Sumy Oblast, and entering Sumy Oblast from the Kursk region. Russian forces are reportedly advancing into Sumy Oblast, forcing a Ukrainian retreat.

Zaporizhzhia Oblast: Rolling blackouts and attacks on energy infrastructure continue. A hospital was hit by a Russian missile, and the death toll has risen to 6, with 22 injured. IAEA vehicles continue to be targeted. The Ukrainian military reports high numbers of combat engagements in the Kurakhiv, Pokrovsk, and Vremivka directions. Fighting remains "exceptionally harsh," with Russian forces pushing south from Pokrovsk. Fights near Shevchenko, Pischane, Novotroyitske, Novooleksiyivka, Novyy Trud, Dachenske, Lysivka, Myrolubivka, Promin and Pokrovsk have been reported. Ukrainian forces report sustaining 203 attacks in the last two days in the region. Russian advances continue south of Kurakhove near Sontsivka, Stari Terny, Dachenske, Zoria, Kurakhove, Dachne, Katerynivka, Yelyzavetivka, Hanivka, Antonivka and Uspenivka. Russian forces have taken an outpost near Uspenovka. New information indicates a Russian advance from Starie Terny towards Dachnoe, which impacts the Kurakhove-Zaporizhzhia highway and the western exit from Kurakhovo. Ukrainian forces report that all supply routes to Kurakhovo are under Russian fire or control. A group of Russian forces remains blocked within the Kurakhovo Thermal Power Plant. Ukrainian forces are still attempting to break out. 268 attacks were launched on 10 settlements in the region in the last 24 hours, including 150 drones, 8 Grad rocket barrages, and 109 artillery strikes. A Russian strike on Stepnohirsk injured 3 rescuers. A program is in place for free cancer screening for internally displaced peoples. A meeting of top leadership was held to discuss the air defense of that region. President Zelenskyy has visited Zaporizhzhia, and has opened the first underground school.

Kherson Oblast: Russian forces are targeting settlements on the left bank of the Dnieper river, including the area of Novaya Kahovka, where a gas pipeline and a high voltage line were damaged. Ukrainian forces report repelling 5 Russian assaults on the Kherson axis. Russian forces reportedly targeted Ukrainian troops and equipment near Mikhailovka and Nikolsky. Ukrainian artillery is targeting Russian positions on the right bank of the Dnieper with Grad rockets. There are multiple reports of civilian casualties, including a 67-year old man killed by a drone strike, and a 54-year old man and a 51-year old woman injured from strikes on Kherson. There were reports of one person killed and seven injured in the Kherson region due to shelling.

Toretsk/Kramatorsk Direction: Russian air attacks are targeting Toretsk, and fighting reported near Toretsk, Chasiv Yar and Stupochky. Russian forces are reportedly advancing towards Toretsk.

Other Fronts: Russian air attacks target Krymske, Petrivka, Komar, Rozlyv and Vremivka of Donetsk region. Fighting continues near Zapadne, Pischane, Loziv and Zahryzove in the Kupyansk area. Russian forces are reportedly advancing in the direction of Lyubimovka, Zelonyy Shlyakh, and Tolstyy Lug. Fighting reported near Tverdokhlibove, Druzhelubivka, Novoyehorivka, Hrekivka, Makiyivka, Terny, Torske, Hryhorivka, Kopanka and Serebryanskyi forest in the Lyman axis. Fighting reported near Verkhnokamyanske in the Sieversk axis. Fighting reported near Trudove, Kostyantynopolske, Sukhykh Yaliv, Blahodatne and Novodarivka in the Vremivka axis. Fighting reported near Novoandriyivka in the Orikhiv axis. Fighting has also been reported in the area of Kolesnikovka, Kruglyakovka and Zagryzovo. The Russian military has made advancements near Novotroitskoye. The Ukrainian military reported 138 combat engagements, mostly focused on the Kurakhiv, Pokrovsk, and Vremivka directions.

Drone Warfare: Drone usage is escalating on both sides, with Ukrainian drones targeting Russian facilities inside Russia. Russia is using FPV drones to destroy Ukrainian equipment, and Zala Lancets to shoot down Ukrainian drones. Russia has deployed the Molniya 2.0 drone, resistant to REB. Ukrainian forces have shot down a Russian Supercam drone. There have also been reports of new drones moving south in northern Chernihiv Oblast, and from Sumy Oblast toward Poltava and Chernihiv oblasts. Ukrainian drones have been spotted targeting Russian military facilities in Russian territory. There is an increased presence of enemy drones in Sumy, Poltava and Chernihiv Oblasts. New groups of enemy drones are moving south in northern Chernihiv Oblast and west/southwest in central Sumy Oblast. Russian drones are now also moving toward Poltava and Chernihiv Oblasts from Sumy. Multiple groups of enemy drones are entering the Sumy region from the Kursk Oblast, moving in a west/southwest direction. An FPV drone was used by Russia to destroy a Ukrainian "Plastun-3000" electronic warfare station, while another Ukrainian electronic warfare station was also targeted. Ukrainian forces have destroyed multiple Russian vehicles and troop positions with drones. A new threat of drone activity has emerged in Cherkasy Oblast, with Russian drones moving in a westward direction. Ukrainian forces have also successfully utilized FPV drones to engage Russian positions and vehicles, including personnel along a road in Kharkiv oblast. Ukrainian forces continue to use FPV drones in an aggressive and tactical manner. Russian forces destroyed a Ukrainian Humvee with an FPV drone. Ukrainian forces have reported using drone attacks on Russian forces in the Kursk region. There have been reports of a Ukrainian drone strike in occupied Crimea, although these reports have not been confirmed. Ukrainian forces have reported 100 attacks on Ukrainian nuclear facilities by Russian forces, using expensive missiles. The Ukrainian Air Force reports that Russian tactical aviation is now launching guided aerial bombs in Sumy and Donetsk Oblasts. Russian tactical aviation is now launching guided aerial bombs in the Kharkiv region.

Logistics: Supply lines in contested regions are under heavy fire. Russian facilities inside Russia are being targeted with Ukrainian drones and missiles. Russia is also reportedly moving troops and equipment by air in the Kharkiv region using Mi-26 helicopters to reinforce forces. Ukrainian forces are using drones to target Russian forces and equipment. Russian forces are reported to be using civilian vehicles to disguise themselves. Russia is facing difficulties with logistics, illustrated by soldiers having to manually create bunkers using their own funds. Russian state media is stating there is an increasing number of requests from the public about social assistance, particularly around housing and transportation.

Military Activity: Russian forces have taken Zolote and are reported to have made advances near Novotroiske, Uspenivka, Kurakhove, Sontsivka, and near Veselyi Hai. The Ukrainian military is also actively utilizing anti-tank guided missiles. The Ukrainian military is testing new mobilization strategies. A Ukrainian artillery unit set a new record for long-range strikes. Russian tactical aviation launched guided aerial bombs on the Donetsk and Kharkiv axes, and Sumy. One Russian FPV operator destroyed a Ukrainian "Plastun-3000" electronic warfare station, while other operators are actively being targeted and destroyed. Russian forces are reportedly advancing towards Toretsk. A video released by Russian sources suggests Russian forces are targeting Ukrainian positions near Uspenovka, and that there has been some forward movement towards Kurakhove. Ukrainian forces are destroying Russian military vehicles near the village of Zeloniy Shlyakh and other villages. Russian forces appear to be attempting an encirclement of forces in Kurakhove.

Other Conflicts: A political crisis has escalated in Jubaland, Somalia. Ethiopian forces are assisting various groups within the country. Syrian rebel groups are releasing images of Russian equipment and vehicles on the road but have orders not to engage. Infighting and instability persist in Syria. Russian forces are reportedly withdrawing from Syria but naval assets remain. Russia is nearing an agreement with the new Syrian leadership to retain their two military bases in Tartus and Khmeimim. Russian military from the furthest regions of Syria is being transferred to bases in Tartus and Khmeimim, and are reportedly looting and drinking while waiting for evacuation. 4-5 military transport planes are flying daily between Khmeimim and Russian airfields. Ships are still moving military equipment from Syria to the base in Tartus. Russia has claimed that all of their naval nuclear forces have been fully upgraded. Russia has also proposed to send Syrian president Assad to rebuild the Donbas, and given Russian citizenship. There are now protests in Al-Hol, where ISIS forces are being guarded by Kurdish forces.

Casualties: More than 200 Ukrainian troops were reportedly killed in the Kursk region over the past 24 hours. A Ukrainian woman was accused of fraud for allegedly taking money from the wife of an Azovstal defender. Three rescuers have been injured in Zaporizhzhia, and this has been updated to 3 in Stepnohirsk. Ukrainian forces report that Russian losses near Pokrovsk are high, with an average of 400 per day in December. Three Ukrainian soldiers have reportedly died due to fraudulently signed contracts. There are now 3 injured people after the attack on Stepnohirsk. There are reports of at least one Ukrainian civilian dead and multiple injuries resulting from Russian strikes on the Kherson region. The Ukrainian military reports that it has destroyed a Russian armored vehicle and personnel in the Kursk region. Ukrainian artillery has set a new record for long-range strikes. Russian drone strikes on Kherson have led to a civilian fatality, as well as multiple injuries. There have been reports of heavy casualties by both sides near Kurakhovo, with Ukrainian forces suffering approximately 400 casualties daily in December.

Political and Geopolitical:

• G7 nations are pushing for a secular government in Syria.
• The US Congress is requesting an assessment on reduced support for Ukraine and the threat of aggression from China, Iran, and North Korea.
• Macron is in Warsaw discussing peacekeeping forces in Ukraine, with Poland stating it will not send troops.
• Russia is seeking prisoner exchanges and signaling a willingness to negotiate based on preconditions Ukraine won't agree to. Russia may be engaging in peace talks with foreign partners while demanding Ukrainian withdrawal from the Kursk region. Russia is claiming that it is willing to return to peace talks if Ukraine accepts Russia's terms. Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov has stated that Bashar al-Assad is currently in Russia. Lavrov and Siarto have discussed how Ukraine has refused offers of a temporary ceasefire and prisoner exchanges. Medvedev stated that Russia is open to resuming negotiations with Ukraine, if Ukraine acknowledges current geopolitical realities. Russia's Foreign Minister, Lavrov, has stated that Ukraine rejected a ceasefire deal brokered by Hungary. President Orban of Hungary has proposed a prisoner exchange to the Russian government, but the Ukrainian government rejected this proposal. A Russian official stated that the Kremlin will not use military force in Syria following the collapse of the Assad regime.
• NATO is concerned about the use of Oreshnik missiles, and Belarus is deploying the "Kulisas" communication system. NATO's Secretary General stated that military expenses within NATO countries need to exceed 3% and called for pension and welfare cuts to afford more weapons. NATO's Secretary General stated that Russia is rebuilding its forces faster than anticipated, although they don't think it will lead to a direct attack from Russia.
• The Biden administration is considering stricter sanctions on Russian oil exports, while Canada has approved a ~$600 million military aid package for Ukraine. The US State Department has approved a potential sale of F-16 equipment and maintenance to Kyiv. The Ukrainian president has met with military leadership in Zaporizhzhia to address the air defense of that region. The Ukrainian president has also addressed Ukrainian soldiers emphasizing the importance of training and drones.
• Trump opposes US-made long-range missile strikes into Russia, citing escalation. Trump stated that if Ukraine refuses negotiations with Russia, he will cut off support.
• Syria remains volatile with reports of executions, terrorism, large-scale refugee movements, and ISIS gaining power. Russia has begun withdrawing from Syria, but has also stated it may be keeping its two military bases. A meeting is taking place between the Syrian government and Russian authorities regarding these bases.
• Lukashenko has stated that Belarus is planning to use Oreshnik missiles. Belarus has received several dozen nuclear warheads.
• Turkey has denied meeting with Syrian officials.
• Iran has claimed they warned Syria three months prior about Israeli attacks.
• The EU has lost over 1.5 trillion Euros due to sanctions against Russia.
• A Slovakian politician has stated that Western powers may attempt to divide Ukraine, similarly to Czechoslovakia in 1938, and will not be invited to join NATO after the defeat. A Russian politician, Galuzin, has stated that a pact between Russia and North Korea will force the US to consider the destructive consequences if it attacks either country.
• The Russian government has stated that it has fully modernized its strategic nuclear arsenal.
• A Russian official stated that Russia may resume peace talks if Ukraine accepts their current geopolitical reality, and a separate report indicates Russia may be engaging in peace talks with foreign partners while demanding Ukrainian withdrawal from the Kursk region.
• Reuters states that a new agreement between Russia and India to supply oil could generate 13 billion USD in revenue for Russia annually. Rosneft has entered into a 10-year agreement to supply Reliance with 500,000 barrels of oil per day.
• NATO's Secretary General has stated that Russia is rebuilding its forces faster than anticipated.
• NATO's Secretary General has called for European countries to cut their social welfare spending in favor of military spending.
• Telegram has blocked over 15 million accounts for violating their community guidelines, and they have implemented an AI tool to prevent these actions. Telegram has also reported a large number of terrorist activity on the platform.

Internal Security:

• There are increasing reports of corruption and internal issues, low morale, and insufficient support within the Ukrainian military. Ukrainian forces are lacking engineering personnel and experiencing friendly fire incidents. 30 separate investigations into embezzlement are currently active. The Ukrainian military is now implementing a policy of basic military training within the brigades. Ukrainian President Zelenskyy formally introduced the new commander of the Support Forces, General-Major Mykhailo Drapatyi, as the new commander of the Ukrainian ground forces. Conscription rates in Ukraine have dropped from 35,000 to 20,000 a month, and the US is pushing for this to be lowered to 18 years of age. A BBC report indicates that Ukraine’s conscription efforts are not keeping up with losses.
• Russia is implementing new fines for public intoxication and traffic offenses, and is experiencing low morale within their ranks. Russia has arrested 125 people for corruption in the defense industry and 11 for issues related to defense orders. A military court in Russia has begun proceedings against Ukrainian soldiers who infiltrated Kursk Oblast. The court extended the pre-trial detention of seven soldiers for six months. There have been multiple reports of Russian troops using pigs to attempt to reveal Ukrainian firing positions. A Russian battalion commander reported demoralization among Ukrainian forces in Kursk Oblast. There are increasing reports of corruption in the Russian military as well as low morale. Russian state media received over 500,000 requests for Putin’s direct-line call, largely pertaining to transport, housing, medical care, and social benefits. Russia is implementing a recruiting campaign in Crimea for personnel aged between 18 and 40. Russia has banned civilian drone usage. 5 business owners have been arrested for the fraudulent actions of a Russian football club investor. Russia has also postponed implementation of new currency bills until 2028.
• The Ukrainian government is implementing changes to restrictions on credit card transfers, and has received $454 million in healthcare funding. There are increasing protests against conscription. A Ukrainian supporter of the Shariy Party was arrested for plotting to overthrow the government, and a group of propagandists from outside of Ukraine were also uncovered. A wave of fake reports of mine placement have been sent to various locations in Ukraine. There have been multiple reports of phishing sites used to steal money from citizens. There are reports of an increasing amount of public unrest as conscription efforts are continuing to be rolled out across Ukraine.
• Russia is offering free IT training and claims its economy is growing by 3.9%.
• A German citizen with Russian citizenship was arrested for planning to sabotage railway tracks. The FSB announced the arrest of 11 call center employees working for the SBU and a former Georgian defense minister, involved in arson attacks and disinformation campaigns. Some countries are denying asylum to Ukrainians residing far from the front lines. There are increasing reports of criminal activity such as stealing from delivery depots. There are also reports of a soldier returning from the SMO in Russia being arrested for a supposed rape.
• A Ukrainian woman has been accused of fraud for allegedly taking money from the wife of an Azovstal defender.
• A soldier returning from the SMO in Russia has been arrested for a supposed rape.
• Three Ukrainian conscripts have reportedly died due to false contracts.
• The Ukrainian military has released information about its 118th Mechanized Brigade targeting Russian vehicles along a roadway.

Technological Warfare: Drone warfare continues to escalate, with both sides testing new drones and anti-drone technology. Russia may be capable of producing 25 Oreshnik long-range ballistic missiles per month. Belarus has deployed a mobile communication system called "Kulisas." Ukrainian forces have successfully shot down a Russian Supercam drone. Russian forces are using Zala Lancet drones to shoot down Ukrainian drones. A new Ukrainian missile, “Ruta” has been successfully tested.

• A new US drone has been tested in Ukraine, called the V-Bat.
• The Ukrainian military is using drones to target Russian forces and equipment.
• A Russian FPV drone successfully destroyed a Ukrainian "Plastun-3000" electronic warfare station.
• The Ukrainian military has been focusing on improving its counter drone capabilities.
• Russia has claimed that they have a system for identifying and destroying drones.
• Russia has reported using an FPV drone to destroy a Ukrainian Humvee.

Military Leadership Changes: Ukrainian President Zelenskyy formally introduced the new commander of the Support Forces, General-Major Mykhailo Drapatyi, as the new commander of the ground forces. Zelenskyy has met with military leadership in Zaporizhzhia to address the air defense of that region. The Ukrainian military is now implementing a policy of basic military training within the brigades. There have been numerous reports of Ukrainian military leadership being criticized for incompetence. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that their forces are preparing for all possible scenarios for the enemy’s actions. The head of the Ukrainian Support Forces met with the Ukrainian President and discussed the importance of personnel, technology, and management.

Other:

• Xi Jinping reiterated China's commitment to de-escalation principles and called for a resolution of the Ukrainian crisis.
• There are increasing reports of internal corruption and are trying to develop the IT industry.
• Russia may be engaging in peace talks with foreign partners while demanding Ukrainian withdrawal from the Kursk region. The Russian military may be engaging in peace talks while simultaneously conducting military operations.
• Syrian Islamists have reportedly taken control of Deir ez-Zor.
• IAEA vehicles continue to be targeted by drone strikes.
• A Ukrainian artillery unit has set a new record for long-range strikes in active combat.
• The Russian government may be engaging in peace talks with foreign partners while demanding Ukrainian withdrawal from the Kursk region.
• Trump said that Zelenskyy's strikes into Russia were a mistake.
• A new Russian law is targeting those who spread fake information about the Russian army, threatening them with being placed on the list of terrorists and extremists. A Russian media channel, Ruptly, is offering their services as a news provider. A new Russian media campaign is stating that Ukrainians are being forcibly returned from Europe and sent to the front lines. A Russian Telegram channel posted a meme reinforcing the idea that Ukrainian soldiers do not want to fight.
• Ukrainian authorities have stated that Russian forces are using new methods of locating Ukrainian forces and new types of long range guided missiles.
• Russia is reporting that it has fully updated its naval nuclear forces, and that those forces are a guarantee of safety on a global scale. Russia is claiming that its land-based nuclear forces are its primary deterrence, rather than naval forces, as is common in western countries.
• A Russian investigative committee has charged two captured Ukrainian soldiers with being terrorists and has stated they will face long prison sentences.
• A Russian media channel is claiming that a Russian oil company, Rosneft, has signed a 10-year agreement to supply India with 500,000 barrels of oil daily.
• The head of the Russian Federal Security Service (FSB), Bortnikov, has stated that they are now actively recruiting personnel between 18 and 40 for border operations.
• There are reports that a new round of fake reports of mine placement have been sent to locations across Ukraine.
• There are reports of an increasing amount of public unrest as conscription efforts are continuing to be rolled out across Ukraine.
• The head of the Ukrainian Support Forces met with the Ukrainian President and discussed the importance of personnel, technology, and management.
• Zelenskyy held a meeting with military leadership to discuss air defense and other security concerns in the Zaporizhzhia region.
• The Ukrainian government is now pushing for brigades to have more authority over resource allocation.
• The Ukrainian president has visited the frontlines in Zaporizhzhia, and opened the first underground school.
• Ukrainian forces report high numbers of combat engagements in the Kurakhiv, Pokrovsk, and Vremivka directions.
• Russia is now reported to be targeting civilian populations in Kherson with drone strikes, and Nikopol.
• Ukraine has begun evacuating civilians from Malaya Tokmachka due to intense fighting.
• Ukrainian forces report that Russian losses near Pokrovsk are high, with an average of 400 casualties per day in December.
• Russian troops in Syria are reportedly looting and drinking while waiting for evacuation.
• A new report indicates that NATO's Secretary General has called for European countries to cut their social welfare spending in favor of military spending.
• The Russian government may resume peace talks if Ukraine acknowledges their current geopolitical situation.
• The Ukrainian government has stated that there have been over a hundred attacks on Ukrainian nuclear objects by Russia.
• Russia is now reported to be targeting civilian populations in Kherson with drone strikes.
• A strategic alliance between Russia and North Korea will force the US to consider the destructive consequences if they attack either country.
• Russia and India have signed a new oil supply agreement for 500,000 barrels per day for 10 years, which will generate 13 billion USD in revenue per year for Russia.
• Ukraine has stated that Russia’s claim of the capture of Novoiivanovka is false, but reports from multiple other sources suggest this capture was valid.
• Russia has claimed it has destroyed a Ukrainian mobile firing group in Kharkiv Oblast.
• The Ukrainian military has stated that Russian losses are high near Pokrovsk.
• Ukraine has reported a high level of drone activity from Russia in Kharkiv, Donetsk, Sumy, Chernihiv, Poltava and Cherkasy oblasts.
• The Russian military has taken the settlement of Zarya and claim gains near Novotroiske, Uspenivka, Kurakhove, and Sontsivka.
• The Ukrainian military has stated that 3 BMD-2 armored vehicles were destroyed by the 36th Separate Marine Brigade in the Kursk region.
• The head of the Ukrainian military, General Sirsky, has stated that Ukrainian forces are ready for all potential Russian operations in and around Pokrovsk.
• The Ukrainian military has reported that the Russian forces are using guided bombs in the Kharkiv, Donetsk, and Sumy oblasts.

Casualties:

• Russian forces claimed more than 200 Ukrainian troop losses in the Kursk region, while Ukrainian forces also claim large losses of Russian equipment. Two rescuers have been injured in Zaporizhzhia, and this has now been updated to three rescuers injured in the region.
• More than 200 Ukrainian troops were reportedly killed in the Kursk region over the past 24 hours. A Ukrainian artillery unit has set a new record for long-range strikes in active combat. A Ukrainian soldier has stated that some soldiers have been ordered to commit suicide rather than be captured, and there are claims that the Ukrainian military are lacking engineering personnel and suffering from friendly fire incidents.
• The Ukrainian military has stated Russian loses are high around Pokrovsk with an average of 400 casualties per day in December.
• Russian drone strikes on Kherson have led to a civilian fatality, as well as multiple injuries.
• Three Ukrainian conscripts have reportedly died due to false contracts.
• Russian forces are reported to have lost 1390 personnel, 6 tanks, 28 armored vehicles, 5 artillery systems and 54 automobiles.

Strategic Operations: Ukrainian forces are testing new mobilization strategies. Ukrainian forces report intense artillery and missile strikes on various settlements. Ukrainian forces are testing new tactics, and focusing on drones and electronic warfare countermeasures. Russian forces have reported using FPV drones to target Ukrainian positions and equipment. The Ukrainian military reported 138 combat engagements, mostly focused on the Kurakhiv, Pokrovsk, and Vremivka directions. Ukrainian military has reported significant losses to Russian forces, particularly in the Kursk region. Ukrainian military forces are also claiming high casualties on Russian forces in the Kursk region. Russian forces are conducting offensive operations in the Kursk region, and advances into Donetsk and Sumy Oblasts. Ukrainian forces continue to use drones effectively to target Russian equipment. Russian forces are utilizing unconventional techniques such as using pigs to reveal firing positions. The Ukrainian forces have started a training program within the brigades. The Ukrainian military is focusing on drones and electronic countermeasures for both reconnaissance and targeted attacks. Ukrainian forces remotely laid mines in the LNR, using cassette munitions and German anti-tank mines. Russian forces have made advances in Sumy Oblast and are consolidating control over Toretsk. Russian forces are reportedly conducting operations in and around the villages of Lyubimovka, Zelonyy Shlyakh, and Tolstyy Lug, and are reportedly pushing toward the town of Sudzha in Kursk Oblast. Ukrainian forces are utilizing IMP (improvised military positions) left behind by the Russian military. Russian forces have also used an RPO-A Shmel to engage Ukrainian positions in Shevchenko. Russian forces have been making progress near Uspenovka. Ukrainian forces have reported the successful use of FPV drones in destroying Russian positions and vehicles. The Ukrainian military has released information about its troops engaging with, and killing, elements of the Russian VDV (Airborne) forces, and using their abandoned IMPs. A Ukrainian armored unit was destroyed in Kharkiv.

Updated Assessment of Key Areas:

• The area around Novotroitskoye and Toretsk remains contested with heavy fighting reported. The situation is dynamic with attacks and counterattacks. The situation in and around Toretsk remains highly contested. Russian forces are reportedly advancing towards Toretsk. The Russian military has made advancements near Novotroitskoye. The Ukrainian military has stated that there has been an infiltration of small Russian units into Pokrovsk. Russian forces are pushing from Pokrovsk towards Kurakhove. Ukrainian forces are reporting high casualty rates in the Pokrovsk area.
• Heavy drone use by both sides in the Kursk and Sumy Oblasts suggests heavy fighting is ongoing. The Russian advances near Sudzha and Sverdlikovo show a continued offensive pressure. There has also been a Russian advance into Sumy Oblast. There is an increase in the number of enemy drones moving into the Sumy region. New groups of Russian drones are now targeting areas in Cherkassy as well as areas in Sumy, Poltava and Chernihiv oblasts. Russian forces are reportedly pushing towards the town of Sudzha. There are reported Russian attacks on Ukrainian positions near Lyubimovka, Zelonyy Shlyakh, and Tolstyy Lug.
• The use of drones continues to be a dominant factor, with both sides using them for surveillance, strikes, and logistics. New drones and counter-drone technology are being tested by both sides.
• Logistical routes in all contested regions are under heavy fire. Russian facilities inside Russia are also being targeted by drones and missiles. Russian forces appear to be experiencing logistical challenges.
• Propaganda and disinformation continue, with both sides attempting to influence public opinion.
• Instability appears to be growing within both Russia and Ukraine, leading to internal issues and challenges. There have been reports of corruption, low morale and desertion within the Russian and Ukrainian forces.
• The situation in Syria is causing increased violence and instability. Russia is withdrawing its military forces from Syria. However, naval assets and two military bases will remain. There are reports of Russian soldiers looting while waiting for evacuation.
• IAEA vehicles continue to be targeted in the region of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power plant. Ukrainian forces have successfully targeted Russian convoys on main thoroughfares.
• The Ukrainian military command is being criticized for incompetence and poor decisions.
• The Russian military has released information about Russian forces taking the settlements of Zarya and Sontsivka.
• The Ukrainian military has stated that the area around Pokrovsk is still under very intense fighting, and their troops are sustaining very heavy casualties. The front line seems to be under pressure from Russian forces advancing near Starie Terny towards Dachnoe, which impacts the Kurakhove-Zaporizhzhia highway. The Ukrainian military has stated that a group of Russian forces is currently trapped inside a power plant near Kurakhovo, and their supply lines have been cut.
• Russian forces have made significant advances in and around the town of Kurakhovo. Russian forces are reportedly advancing within the town of Uspenovka. Ukrainian forces have reportedly destroyed a Russian armored unit in Kharkiv.
• The Russian military is using FPV drones to target Ukrainian positions, including electronic warfare stations.
• Ukrainian forces are remotely placing anti-tank mines in Russian controlled regions.
• The Russian military has been conducting operations in and around the villages of Lyubimovka, Zelonyy Shlyakh, and Tolstyy Lug, and are reportedly pushing toward the town of Sudzha in Kursk Oblast.
• Ukrainian forces have suffered heavy losses near Kurakhovo and Pokrovsk.
• Russian forces appear to be establishing defensive positions in the Kupyansk region.
• The Ukrainian military has reported that Russian losses in the Pokrovsk direction are high, with an average of 400 losses daily in December.
• Russian forces have advanced in the Donetsk and Kharkiv regions, and have also made advances in Sumy Oblast.

Strategic Recommendations for Commanders:

1. Reinforce defensive positions, especially around Pokrovsk, Kurakhovo, and Toretsk, and along the border regions of Sumy, Kharkiv, and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts. Reassess defensive lines in those areas where Russian forces have made recent advances.
2. Continue to implement enhanced counter-drone measures and technologies, and research new counter-drone methods. Increase counter-intelligence operations to locate hidden personnel and drone operators. Implement and maintain strategies to improve troop morale and address any communication and supply chain issues. Continue investigating any claims of corruption and any reported orders to commit suicide rather than be captured.
3. Focus operations on the border between Russia and Ukraine and implement strategies to protect against incursions, especially in Kursk and Sumy Oblasts. Evaluate and prioritize defense in the Sumy region, given the recent advance and movement of enemy drones. Create fortified positions and consider a remote mining program to make Russian advances more difficult. Reassess the threat level posed by Russian forces in the Kursk region, and their attempt to use a humanitarian corridor for their forces in that region.
4. Secure supply lines with extra patrols and defenses, especially major transport arteries leading to key locations.
5. Continue to identify and target financial networks that support illicit military operations.
6. Develop and deploy an effective counter-information strategy to combat disinformation narratives, and monitor propaganda and misinformation on communications platforms like Telegram. Implement countermeasures to propaganda that is designed to lower morale, and emphasize the need to support the military effort.
7. Prioritize civilian protection and support services for displaced people. Maintain reliable access to water and communication, and access to medical support. Address the rising civilian casualties in areas like Zaporizhzhia, Kherson, Nikopol and the Kursk region. Ensure safe passage for civilians near Kursk Oblast.
8. Continue to work with international partners to limit Russia’s ability to circumvent international sanctions. Monitor India’s oil supply deal with Russia and take steps to make the agreement more difficult or more expensive for Russia.
9. Monitor the situation in Syria and analyze its potential impacts on regional stability and the possibility of a resurgence of terrorist groups. Monitor the withdrawal of Russian forces from Syria, and their potential influence in the Russia-Ukraine conflict.
10. Monitor Russian mobilization and recruitment campaigns. Monitor recruitment efforts of the FSB in Crimea.
11. Prepare for potential chemical, biological, radiological, and nuclear threats, and be aware of the confirmed presence of nuclear weapons in Belarus.
12. Analyze the potential impacts of deploying European Peacekeepers and prepare for the possibility of post-conflict operations with peacekeeper forces.
13. Improve logistical operations, especially in areas experiencing supply chain disruptions. Investigate any corruption leading to logistical issues. Improve logistical support to Ukrainian drone units. Prioritize the resupply of the areas around Pokrovsk, as well as the troops in the Kursk and Sumy region.
14. Maintain active intelligence and surveillance of all military activity to assess strengths and weaknesses, and monitor for acts of sabotage in both Russia and Ukraine. Improve intelligence capabilities to counteract the effective use of drones by Russia.
15. Monitor and assess the impacts of economic and political instability within Russia and Ukraine. Monitor the impact of new financial restrictions in Ukraine. Monitor internal dissent within Russia due to its military engagement.
16. Investigate and address reports of atrocities coming from Kursk Oblast and from Syria. Address reports of extra-judicial killings, particularly those involving surrendering combatants. Clarify rules of engagement to prevent similar events.
17. Assess the impact of the reported deaths of prominent Syrian figures, including a chemist and a theologian.
18. Address the large-scale surrender of Syrian soldiers.
19. Address the potential for increased ballistic missile attacks from Belarus.
20. Address the increased frequency of air raid sirens in Western and Northern Ukraine.
21. Assess the implications of the resumption of Russian passenger rail service with China and North Korea.
22. Address the potential impact of the reported inappropriate behavior of a Scottish council leader toward Ukrainian refugees.
23. Assess the implications of the proposed Ukrainian arms export policy.
24. Monitor weather conditions and account for the impact on military operations and civilian populations. The coming cold weather should be accounted for in all logistical planning.
25. Assess the threat level and prepare for possible increased Russian use of long-range ballistic missiles.
26. Reassess the threat level posed by the confirmed presence of nuclear weapons in Belarus.
27. Continue to address reports of corruption within both the Ukrainian military and civilian sectors.
28. Monitor and analyze reports of Russia using foreign troops in Ukraine, including forces from North Korea.
29. Address the vulnerability of supply and production centers inside Russia and assess the impact of these strikes on Russia's war-making capabilities.
30. Analyze the impact of new Russian policies which are increasing the amount of fines that citizens will have to pay.
31. Monitor and assess the implications of Belarus’s plan to deploy Oreshnik missiles, and monitor the implications of increased drone activity in Sumy and Kharkhiv. Monitor the locations of Russian long range missile batteries and assess their threat. Implement counter measures to defend from ballistic missile strikes in the region.
32. Assess the implications of growing ties between Russia and China.
33. Monitor the implications of the ongoing rolling blackouts in Ukraine.
34. Monitor the activity of the Red Cross, WHO, OSCE, UN, and other international organizations to ensure the safety of international personnel and the reliability of data being reported.
35. Anticipate severe weather and prepare to operate in such conditions.
36. Monitor Ukrainian civilian infrastructure, civilian protests, and other sources of public unrest. Monitor and counteract Russian information operations targeting the civilian population.