Situation Report

Updated Military Situation Analysis - December 12, 2024 (14:17:05 UTC)

Eastern Ukraine: Heavy fighting continues near Novotroitskoye, with Ukrainian counterattacks persisting. Russian forces are consolidating control in Toretsk and advancing toward Scherbynivka and Leonidivka. The 5th Brigade of the 51st Army of the Southern Military District has raised its flag over the Kurakhove elevator. A Ukrainian grouping of forces south of Kurakhovo has been effectively destroyed. Russian forces are also making advances near Novotroitskoye, and south of Voznesenka. Russian forces have broken through Ukrainian lines near Chasov Yar, capturing a strongpoint.

Kursk Region: Russian forces advanced near Sudzha and Sverdlikovo, while Ukrainian forces are using drones and anti-tank mines for attacks inside Russia. More than 200 Ukrainian troops have reportedly been killed in the Kursk region over the past 24 hours.

Sumy Oblast: Russian forces have advanced into Sumy Oblast near Aleksandria, and launched an artillery strike on a railway station in Esman.

Zaporizhzhia Oblast: Rolling blackouts continue due to Russian strikes on energy infrastructure. A hospital complex has been hit by a Russian quasi-ballistic missile. There have been 268 attacks on 10 settlements over the past 24 hours, and IAEA vehicles are still being targeted.

Drone Warfare: Drone usage by both sides has escalated with Ukrainian drones targeting Russian facilities inside Russia. Russia is using FPV drones to destroy Ukrainian equipment, while also using Zala Lancets to shoot down Ukrainian drones. Russian forces continue attacks using MLRS. Ukraine is using drones to drop anti-tank mines. Russia has deployed the Molniya 2.0 drone, which is resistant to REB. A Russian FPV drone destroyed a Ukrainian "Plastun-3000" electronic warfare station. Ukrainian forces have successfully shot down a Russian Supercam drone.

Logistics: Supply lines in contested regions are under heavy fire. Russian facilities inside Russia are being targeted with Ukrainian drones and missiles.

Antonovsky Bridge: There are reports of a firefight near the Antonovsky Bridge in Kherson Oblast.

Air Attacks: There is increased activity by Russian tactical aviation in southeastern Ukraine, with guided air bomb strikes in the Donetsk region. Ukrainian tactical aviation also conducted guided air bomb strikes in the Donetsk region.

Political and Geopolitical:

• G7 nations are pushing for a secular government in Syria.
• The US Congress is requesting an assessment on reduced support for Ukraine and the threat of aggression from China, Iran, and North Korea.
• Macron is in Warsaw discussing peacekeeping forces in Ukraine, with Poland stating it will not send troops.
• Russia is seeking prisoner exchanges and signaling a willingness to negotiate based on preconditions Ukraine won't agree to.
• NATO is concerned about the use of Oreshnik missiles, and Belarus is deploying the "Kulisas" communication system.
• The Biden administration is considering stricter sanctions on Russian oil exports, while Canada has approved a ~$600 million military aid package for Ukraine.
• Trump opposes US-made long-range missile strikes into Russia, citing escalation. Trump was also named Time's Person of the Year.
• Syria remains volatile with reports of executions, terrorism, large-scale refugee movements, and ISIS gaining power. Russia has begun withdrawing from Syria. Mohammed al-Bashar has been appointed interim Prime Minister.
• Lukashenko has stated that Belarus is planning to use Oreshnik missiles. Belarus has received several dozen nuclear warheads.
• Turkey has denied meeting with Syrian officials.
• Iran has claimed they warned Syria three months prior about Israeli attacks.
• The EU has lost over 1.5 trillion Euros due to sanctions against Russia.

Internal Security:

• There are increasing reports of corruption and internal issues, low morale, and insufficient support within the Ukrainian military. Ukrainian forces are lacking engineering personnel, and are experiencing friendly fire incidents.
• Russia is implementing new fines for public intoxication and traffic offenses, and is experiencing low morale within their ranks. Russia has arrested 125 people for corruption in the defense industry and 11 for issues related to defense orders.
• The Ukrainian government is implementing changes to restrictions on credit card transfers, and has received $454 million in healthcare funding. There are increasing protests against conscription.
• Russia is offering free IT training and claims its economy is growing by 3.9%.
• A German citizen with Russian citizenship was arrested for planning to sabotage railway tracks.
• The FSB announced the arrest of 11 call center employees working for the SBU and a former Georgian defense minister, involved in arson attacks and disinformation campaigns.
• Some countries are denying asylum to Ukrainians residing far from the front lines.
• There are increasing reports of criminal activity such as stealing from delivery depots.

Technological Warfare:

• Drone warfare continues to escalate, with both sides testing new drones and anti-drone technology.
• Russia may be capable of producing 25 Oreshnik long-range ballistic missiles per month.
• Belarus has deployed a mobile communication system called "Kulisas."
• Ukrainian forces have successfully shot down a Russian Supercam drone.
• Russian forces are using Zala Lancet drones to shoot down Ukrainian drones.

Other Conflicts:

• A political crisis in Jubaland, Somalia, has escalated, with heavy losses incurred by the Somalian army. Ethiopian forces are assisting various groups within the country.

Casualties:

• The death toll in Zaporizhzhia has risen to 11.
• More than 200 Ukrainian troops were killed in the Kursk region over the past 24 hours.

Updated Assessment of Key Areas:

• The area around Novotroitskoye remains contested with heavy fighting reported. The situation is dynamic with attacks and counterattacks. The situation in and around Toretsk remains highly contested.
• The heavy use of drones by both sides in the Kursk and Sumy Oblasts suggests these areas are heavily contested. The Russian advances near Sudzha and Sverdlikovo show a continued offensive pressure. There has also been a Russian advance into Sumy Oblast.
• Drone usage continues to be a dominant factor, with both sides using them for surveillance, strikes, and logistics. New drones and counter-drone technology are being tested by both sides.
• Logistical routes in all contested regions are under heavy fire. Russian facilities inside Russia are also being targeted by drones and missiles.
• Propaganda and disinformation continue, with both sides attempting to influence public opinion.
• Instability appears to be growing within both Russia and Ukraine, leading to internal issues and challenges.
• The collapse of the Assad government in Syria is leading to increased violence and instability.
• IAEA vehicles continue to be targeted in the region of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power plant.

Updated Strategic Recommendations for Commanders:

1. Reinforce defensive positions, especially around Pokrovsk, Kurakhovo, and Toretsk, and along the border regions of Sumy, Kharkiv, and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts.
2. Continue to implement enhanced counter-drone measures and technologies, and research new counter-drone methods. Increase counter-intelligence operations to locate hidden personnel and drone operators.
3. Focus operations on the border between Russia and Ukraine and implement strategies to protect against incursions, especially in Kursk and Sumy Oblasts.
4. Implement and maintain strategies to improve troop morale and address any communication and supply chain issues. Continue investigating any claims of corruption and any reported orders to commit suicide rather than be captured.
5. Secure supply lines with extra patrols and defenses, especially major transport arteries leading to key locations.
6. Continue to identify and target financial networks that support illicit military operations.
7. Develop and deploy an effective counter-information strategy to combat disinformation narratives, and monitor propaganda and misinformation on communications platforms like Telegram.
8. Prioritize civilian protection and support services for displaced people. Maintain reliable access to water and communication, and access to medical support. Address the rising civilian casualties in areas like Zaporizhzhia.
9. Continue to work with international partners to limit Russia’s ability to circumvent international sanctions.
10. Monitor the situation in Syria and analyze its potential impacts on regional stability and the possibility of a resurgence of terrorist groups.
11. Monitor Russian mobilization and recruitment campaigns.
12. Prepare for potential chemical, biological, radiological, and nuclear threats, and be aware of the confirmed presence of nuclear weapons in Belarus.
13. Analyze the potential impacts of deploying European Peacekeepers and prepare for the possibility of post-conflict operations with peacekeeper forces.
14. Improve logistical operations, especially in areas experiencing supply chain disruptions. Investigate any corruption leading to logistical issues. Improve logistical support to Ukrainian drone units.
15. Maintain active intelligence and surveillance of all military activity to assess strengths and weaknesses, and monitor for acts of sabotage in both Russia and Ukraine. Improve intelligence capabilities to counteract the effective use of drones by Russia.
16. Monitor and assess the impacts of economic and political instability within Russia and Ukraine. Monitor the impact of new financial restrictions in Ukraine.
17. Investigate and address reports of atrocities coming from Kursk Oblast and from Syria. Address reports of extra-judicial killings, particularly those involving surrendering combatants. Clarify rules of engagement to prevent similar events.
18. Assess the impact of the reported deaths of prominent Syrian figures, including a chemist and a theologian.
19. Address the large-scale surrender of Syrian soldiers.
20. Address the potential for increased ballistic missile attacks from Belarus.
21. Address the increased frequency of air raid sirens in Western and Northern Ukraine.
22. Assess the implications of the resumption of Russian passenger rail service with China and North Korea.
23. Address the potential impact of the reported inappropriate behavior of a Scottish council leader toward Ukrainian refugees.
24. Assess the implications of the proposed Ukrainian arms export policy.
25. Monitor weather conditions and account for the impact on military operations and civilian populations.
26. Assess the threat level and prepare for possible increased Russian use of long-range ballistic missiles.
27. Reassess the threat level posed by the confirmed presence of nuclear weapons in Belarus.
28. Continue to address reports of corruption within both the Ukrainian military and civilian sectors.
29. Monitor and analyze reports of Russia using foreign troops in Ukraine, including forces from North Korea.
30. Address the vulnerability of supply and production centers inside Russia and assess the impact of these strikes on Russia's war-making capabilities.
31. Analyze the impact of new Russian policies which are increasing the amount of fines that citizens will have to pay.
32. Monitor and assess the implications of Belarus’s plan to deploy Oreshnik missiles, and monitor the implications of increased drone activity in Sumy and Kharkhiv.
33. Assess the implications of growing ties between Russia and China.
34. Monitor the implications of the ongoing rolling blackouts in Ukraine.
35. Monitor the activity of the Red Cross, WHO, OSCE, UN, and other international organizations to ensure the safety of international personnel and the reliability of data being reported.
36. Anticipate severe weather and prepare to operate in such conditions.
37. Monitor Ukrainian civilian infrastructure, civilian protests, and other sources of public unrest.
38. Pay close attention to Ukrainian energy infrastructure to assess its vulnerability and readiness.
39. Monitor Russian recruitment methods and practices and note the presence of prisoners and soldiers from other countries.
40. Investigate claims of widespread extortion and human rights violations in both Russia and Ukraine.
41. Assess the implications of the increased death toll in Zaporizhzhia and the overturned Bradley.
42. Analyze the implications of the confirmed Ukrainian support for HTS rebels in Syria.
43. Evaluate the implications of the potential embezzlement and corruption within the Ukrainian military.
44. Evaluate the implications of the potential NATO deployment of B-61 nuclear weapons in Poland or Ukraine.
45. Assess the impact of the Ukrainian strike on the Bryansk oil depot.
46. Analyze the implications of the destroyed Bradley Fighting Vehicle.
47. Investigate reports of forced contract signings within Russian forces.
48. Assess the impact of low morale and illness within Ukrainian forces.
49. Evaluate the potential impact of increased US sanctions on Russian oil.
50. Analyze the successful Ukrainian drone strike on the Russian Supercam drone.

Conclusion:

The situation is highly volatile and constantly shifting. Russian forces continue their advances, with increasingly sophisticated drone capabilities. Ukrainian forces remain actively fighting, often using drone technology. Propaganda and disinformation efforts continue, and international partners are closely monitoring the region. Logistical and humanitarian concerns remain high priorities. Financial and political instability are impacting all parties. A reevaluation of current strategies is needed, with all factors considered in future decision-making. The confirmed presence of nuclear weapons in Belarus and the increasing number of drone strikes add to the instability, highlighting a need for a comprehensive and adaptive strategic response. Recent reports of Russian advances in multiple locations of Donetsk Oblast, Ukrainian drone strikes, and a renewed push near Pokrovsk require close monitoring and rapid tactical adjustment.