Updated Operational Situation Overview - December 12, 2024 (13:47:05 UTC)
Military Operations:
Eastern Ukraine: Heavy fighting persists around Novotroitskoye. Ukrainian forces continue counterattacks even in previously held areas such as Kalinin.
Kursk Region: Russian forces advanced near Sudzha and Sverdlikovo. Ukrainian forces are using drones to attack targets inside Russia and are also conducting attacks using anti-tank mines, while Russia utilizes drones such as the Molniya 2.0, which is resistant to REB.
Drone Warfare: Drone usage by both sides continues to escalate. Ukrainian drones target Russian facilities inside Russia, and Russian forces are using FPV drones to destroy Ukrainian equipment, while also shooting down Ukrainian drones using Zala Lancets. Russian forces are also continuing attacks using MLRS.
Logistics: Supply lines in contested regions face heavy fire. Russian facilities within Russia are also targets for Ukrainian drones. Russian facilities inside of Russia are being targeted with Ukrainian drones and missiles.
Chasov Yar: Russian forces have broken through Ukrainian lines and captured a strongpoint near Chasov Yar.
Pokrovsk Direction: Russian forces have consolidated control in Toretsk and advanced towards other key locations like Scherbynivka and Leonidivka. The 5th Brigade of the 51st Army of the Southern Military District of the RF Armed Forces has raised their flag over the Kurakhove elevator. Russian forces have also effectively destroyed a Ukrainian grouping of forces south of Kurakhovo and are making advances near Novotroitskoye, and also south of Voznesenka.
Sumy Oblast: Russian forces have advanced into Sumy Oblast near the village of Aleksandria. Russian forces launched an artillery strike on a railway station in Esman, Sumy Oblast. Increased drone activity in Sumy and Kharkhiv.
Zaporizhzhia Oblast: Rolling blackouts continue due to Russian strikes on the energy infrastructure. A hospital complex in Zaporizhzhia has been hit by a Russian quasi-ballistic missile. IAEA vehicles in the region continue to be targeted, and civilian casualties are rising. There have been 268 attacks on 10 settlements over the past 24 hours.
Kursk Oblast: More than 200 Ukrainian troops were killed in the Kursk region over the past 24 hours.
Antonovsky Bridge: There are reports of a firefight near the Antonovsky bridge in Kherson Oblast.
Air Attacks: There are reports of increased activity by Russian tactical aviation in southeastern Ukraine, as well as guided air bomb strikes in the Donetsk region.
Political and Geopolitical:
G7 Nations G7 nations have expressed a desire for a transition in Syria which will create a secular government.
US Congress: The US Congress is requesting an assessment on the impact of reduced support for Ukraine, and has also directed the intelligence services to assess the threat of military aggression from China, Iran and North Korea.
European Peacekeepers: Macron has arrived in Warsaw to discuss peacekeeping forces in Ukraine. Tusk has stated that Poland will not send troops to Ukraine, even after a ceasefire.
Negotiations: Russia is seeking prisoner exchanges with Ukraine and signaling a willingness to return to negotiations, but still based on preconditions that the Ukrainian government will not agree to.
Oreshnik Missiles: NATO is concerned about the use of Oreshnik missiles by Russian and Belarusian forces. Belarus has deployed the "Kulisas" communication system and has tested a new 9M318 missile near its border with Ukraine.
US Aid to Ukraine: The Biden administration is considering imposing stricter sanctions on Russian oil exports. Maria Zakharova stated that the US aid to Ukraine is intended to prolong the conflict. Canada has approved a ~$600 million military aid package for Ukraine.
Trump: Trump has stated his opposition to the use of US-made long-range missiles to strike Russia, citing that it escalates the conflict, and has also said he will use further support as leverage in negotiations. He has also admitted that he thought ending the war in Ukraine would be easier than it has turned out to be, and that resolving the conflict in the middle east is easier than that in Ukraine. Trump was also chosen as Time's Person of the Year.
Syria: The situation in Syria remains volatile following the collapse of the Assad government. There are ongoing reports of executions, terrorism, large scale refugee movements, and the possibility of ISIS becoming more powerful due to the political chaos. Israel has reduced the level of direct attacks and has instead begun an occupation of Syrian territory. Russia has begun a major withdrawal of military assets from Syria. Mohammed al-Bashar has been appointed interim Prime Minister of Syria. Sham Wings has resumed flights between Damascus and Moscow.
Belarus: Lukashenko has stated he will prepare plans to use Oreshnik missiles in Belarus. Belarus has received several dozen nuclear warheads.
Turkey: A meeting between the Turkish foreign minister and head of the intelligence agency with Syrian officials was denied by Turkey.
Iran: An Iranian military advisor has claimed that Iran warned Syria about the impending Israeli attacks three months prior.
Economic sanctions: The EU has lost over 1.5 trillion Euros due to sanctions against Russia.
Internal Security:
Ukrainian Military: There are increasing reports of corruption and internal issues within the Ukrainian military, highlighting the need to address internal corruption and misconduct. There are increasing reports of embezzlement and corruption within the Ukrainian military and within other civilian institutions and low morale among Ukrainian forces. Reports indicate that Ukrainian forces are lacking engineering personnel, and are experiencing insufficient support, and friendly fire incidents.
Russian Military: Russia is implementing new fines for public intoxication and for traffic offenses, which could indicate a desire to tamp down public unrest. Russia is also experiencing low morale within their ranks. The FSB reported that they thwarted an attempt by a Russian-German citizen to sabotage a railway line in Nizhny Novgorod, who was allegedly working with Ukrainian intelligence. Russia has arrested 125 people for corruption in the defense industry and 11 for issues related to defense orders.
Ukrainian Civilian: The Ukrainian government is implementing changes to restrictions on credit card transfers. Ukraine is receiving $454 million in healthcare funding from Japan, the World Bank, and the URTF. There are increasing protests against conscription in urban centers.
Russian Civilian: Russia is offering free IT training, and claims their economy is growing by 3.9%
Rail lines: A German citizen with Russian citizenship was arrested in Nizhny Novgorod for preparing to sabotage railway tracks, with evidence of communication with Ukrainian intelligence. Another Russian citizen was arrested for planning to blow up railway tracks. A second German citizen with Russian citizenship was also arrested in Nizhny Novgorod for similar activities.
Call Centers: The FSB announced the arrest of 11 call center employees working for the SBU and a former Georgian defense minister, involved in arson attacks and disinformation campaigns.
Ukrainian Refugees: There are reports that some countries are denying asylum to Ukrainians residing far from the front lines.
Crime: There are increasing reports of criminal activity such as stealing from delivery depots.
Internal Issues: Increasing reports of corruption, instability, sabotage operations, arrests, and human rights violations in both Russia and Ukraine.
Technological Warfare:
Drone Warfare: Drone warfare continues to escalate with both sides actively using drones, and deploying anti-drone technology. New drones and counter drone technology are being tested by both sides. Ukraine has also begun using drones to drop anti-tank mines.
Oreshnik Missile: Russia may be capable of producing 25 Oreshnik long-range ballistic missiles per month. Russia is increasing its production and deployment of Oreshnik missiles. NATO is concerned about the use of Oreshnik missiles by Russian and Belarusian forces. Belarus has received several dozen nuclear warheads and is implementing plans to use Oreshnik missiles.
Supercam drones: Ukrainian forces have successfully shot down a Russian Supercam drone.
Lancet drones: Russian forces are using Zala Lancet drones to shoot down Ukrainian drones.
Electronic Warfare: A Russian FPV drone successfully destroyed a Ukrainian "Plastun-3000" electronic warfare station.
Molniya 2.0: There are reports of Russia using the new Molniya 2.0 drone which is highly resistant to REB.
Palyanytsya: Ukrainian sources suggest the Taganrog attack involved either ATACMS missiles or a new Ukrainian drone, called "Palyanytsya".
Belarusian Communication System: Belarus has deployed a mobile communication system called "Kulisas," described as a Belarusian equivalent to Starlink.
Other Conflicts
Somalia: A political crisis in Jubaland, Somalia, has escalated, with heavy losses incurred by the Somalian army. Ethiopian forces are assisting various groups within the country.
Casualties:
Zaporizhzhia: The death toll in Zaporizhzhia has risen to 11, after another body was found in the wreckage.
Kursk: There are reports that more than 200 Ukrainian troops were killed in the Kursk region over the past 24 hours.
Updated Assessment of Key Areas:
Eastern Ukraine: The area around Novotroitskoye remains contested, with heavy fighting reported. The situation is dynamic with attacks and counterattacks. The situation in and around Toretsk remains highly contested.
Russian Operations in Kursk and Sumy Oblasts: The heavy use of drones by both sides suggests that these areas are being heavily contested. The Russian advances near Sudzha and Sverdlikovo show a continued offensive pressure. There has also been a Russian advance into Sumy Oblast.
Drone Warfare: Drone usage continues to be a dominant factor, with both sides using them for surveillance, strikes, and logistics. New drones and counter-drone technology are being tested by both sides.
Logistics: Logistical routes in all contested regions are under heavy fire. Supply lines are being tested and supply issues are being reported. Russian facilities inside of Russia are being targeted with Ukrainian drones and missiles.
Propaganda and Information Warfare: Propaganda and disinformation continues to be a common feature of the conflict. Both sides attempt to influence public opinion to strengthen morale and destabilize their opposition. There are increasing attempts to spread misinformation and propaganda.
Internal Instability: Instability appears to be growing within both Russia and Ukraine, leading to internal issues and challenges for both sides. There are increased reports of social unrest and corruption as well as sabotage operations and arrests.
Syria: The collapse of the Assad government is leading to increased violence and instability, highlighting the need to pay attention to the spread of conflict outside of Ukraine.
IAEA: IAEA vehicles in the region of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power plant continue to be targeted.
Updated Strategic Recommendations for Commanders:
Reinforce Defensive Positions: Continue to reinforce key areas along the front lines, particularly focusing on areas around Pokrovsk, Kurakhovo, and Toretsk, and along the border regions of Sumy, Kharkiv, and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts. Pay close attention to fortified positions, and secure transport routes leading to the areas most likely to experience active combat.
Counter Drone Attacks: Continue to implement enhanced counter-drone measures and technologies. Research new counter-drone methods. Increase counter-intelligence operations to locate hidden personnel and drone operators. Investigate drone attacks and determine weaknesses and loopholes that need to be addressed.
Monitor Border Operations: Focus operations on the border between Russia and Ukraine and implement strategies to protect against incursions. Prioritize security, especially in Kursk and Sumy Oblasts.
Address Troop Morale: Continue to implement and maintain strategies to improve troop morale and address any communication and supply chain issues. Continue investigating any claims of corruption and any reported orders to commit suicide rather than be captured.
Secure Supply Lines: Secure supply lines with extra patrols and defenses. Secure major transport arteries leading to key locations. Secure roads in areas likely to see active combat.
Target Financial Networks: Continue to identify and target financial networks that support illicit military operations.
Counter Propaganda and Information Warfare: Develop and deploy an effective counter-information strategy to combat disinformation narratives by Russia and other groups involved in the conflict. Monitor propaganda and misinformation on communications platforms like Telegram. Investigate any claims of electoral interference.
Civilian Protection: Continue to prioritize civilian protection and support services for displaced people. Maintain reliable access to water and communication, and access to medical support. Address the rising civilian casualties in areas like Zaporizhzhia.
Address Sanctions Circumvention: Continue to work with international partners to limit Russia’s ability to circumvent international sanctions.
Address the Syrian Instability: Closely monitor the situation in Syria and analyze its potential impacts on regional stability and the possibility of a resurgence of terrorist groups. Closely monitor the involvement of Iran and the activities of the Israeli military.
Monitor Russian Mobilization Efforts: Monitor and analyze Russian mobilization and recruitment campaigns.
Prepare for CBRN Threats: Prepare for potential chemical, biological, radiological, and nuclear threats and be aware of the confirmed presence of nuclear weapons in Belarus.
Address Potential for EU Peacekeepers: Analyze the potential impacts of deploying European Peacekeepers and prepare for the possibility of post-conflict operations with peacekeeper forces.
Improve Logistical Operations: Improve logistical operations, especially in areas experiencing supply chain disruptions. Investigate any corruption leading to logistical issues. Improve logistical support to Ukrainian drone units. Address the logistical failures contributing to low morale and the abandoning of troops, especially near Kurakhovo.
Monitor Military Operations: Maintain active intelligence and surveillance of all military activity to assess strengths and weaknesses. Look for any weakness or vulnerabilities for exploitation. Monitor for acts of sabotage in both Russia and Ukraine. Improve intelligence capabilities to counteract the effective use of drones by Russia. Monitor for internal instability within Russia, and internal corruption within the Ukrainian forces. Monitor actions in areas such as Syria, especially Israel's operations and the possible resurgence of ISIS.
Assess Impact of Economic and Political Instability: Monitor and assess the impacts of economic and political instability within Russia and Ukraine. Monitor the impact of new financial restrictions in Ukraine.
Address Reports of Atrocities: Investigate and address reports of atrocities coming from Kursk Oblast and from Syria. Address reports of extra-judicial killings, particularly those involving surrendering combatants. Clarify rules of engagement to prevent similar events.
Assess the impact of the reported deaths of prominent Syrian figures, including a chemist and a theologian.
Address the large-scale surrender of Syrian soldiers.
Address the potential for increased ballistic missile attacks from Belarus.
Address the increased frequency of air raid sirens in Western and Northern Ukraine.
Assess the implications of the resumption of Russian passenger rail service with China and North Korea.
Address the potential impact of the reported inappropriate behavior of a Scottish council leader toward Ukrainian refugees.
Assess the implications of the proposed Ukrainian arms export policy.
Monitor Weather Conditions: Account for the impact of severe weather conditions on military operations and civilian populations. Address water shortages in the LNR. Note that adverse weather conditions may be impacting drone operations.
Address the Potential for Increased Use of Long-Range Ballistic Missiles: Assess the threat level, and prepare for possible increased Russian use of long-range ballistic missiles.
Address the Confirmed Presence of Nuclear Weapons in Belarus: Reassess the threat level posed by the confirmed presence of nuclear weapons in Belarus. Address any statements made by Lukashenko regarding the use of these weapons.
Address Internal Corruption: Continue to address reports of corruption within both the Ukrainian military and civilian sectors. Address the apparent lack of accountability within the command structure. Investigate any reports of faulty munitions being supplied to the front lines.
Monitor Russian troop movements: Monitor and analyze reports of Russia using foreign troops in Ukraine, including forces from North Korea.
Monitor and respond to drone attacks in Russia: Address the vulnerability of supply and production centers inside Russia. Assess the impact of these strikes on Russia's war-making capabilities.
Assess the impact of economic issues: Analyze the impact of new Russian policies which are increasing the amount of fines that citizens will have to pay, such as traffic violations, and drinking and driving, and consider the possible economic impact of that on Russian citizens.
Assess Belarus's use of Oreshnik Missiles: Monitor and assess the implications of Belarus’s plan to deploy Oreshnik missiles, and the potential impact on Russian strategic operations. Monitor the implications of increased drone activity in Sumy and Kharkhiv.
Monitor Russia's growing ties with China: Assess the implications of growing ties between Russia and China, especially given the public meeting between Medvedev and Xi Jinping.
Address Ukrainian Energy Issues: Monitor the implications of the ongoing rolling blackouts in Ukraine and their effects on the military, civilian, and industrial infrastructure.
Monitor activity related to international organizations: Monitor the activity of the Red Cross, WHO, OSCE, UN, and other international organizations to ensure the safety of international personnel and the reliability of data being reported.
Anticipate Weather Impact on Operations: Anticipate severe weather and prepare to operate in such conditions.
Monitor Ukrainian Civilian Actions: Monitor Ukrainian civilian infrastructure, civilian protests, and other sources of public unrest.
Monitor Ukrainian Infrastructure: Pay close attention to Ukrainian energy infrastructure to assess its vulnerability and readiness.
Monitor Russian Military Actions: Monitor Russian recruitment methods and practices. Note the presence of prisoners and soldiers from other countries.
Address Atrocities: Investigate claims of widespread extortion and human rights violations in both Russia and Ukraine.
Assess the implications of the increased death toll in Zaporizhzhia and the overturned Bradley: Determine if this represents a change in targeting tactics or the intensification of the conflict and adjust defensive strategies and equipment accordingly.
Analyze the implications of the confirmed Ukrainian support for HTS rebels in Syria: Assess the scope of involvement, potential consequences, and necessary countermeasures. Consider potential escalation of the conflict and implications of increased international involvement.
Assess the potential impact of the reported embezzlement and corruption within the Ukrainian military: Evaluate the effect on operational readiness and troop morale and implement measures to mitigate these challenges. This requires immediate attention and proactive measures to regain lost morale and capability.
Evaluate the implications of the potential NATO deployment of B-61 nuclear weapons in Poland or Ukraine: Assess the effect on the strategic balance of power and the risk of wider conflict, developing plans to address the potential escalation. This necessitates immediate assessment of the risks and a comprehensive contingency plan.
Assess the impact of the Ukrainian strike on the Bryansk oil depot: Determine the extent of damage inflicted, its impact on Russian fuel supplies, and necessary countermeasures. The confirmed destruction and the ongoing fire demand immediate assessment of the strategic impact and possible counter-measures.
Analyze the implications of the destroyed Bradley Fighting Vehicle: Evaluate the circumstances leading to its loss and adjust tactics and training accordingly. This underscores a need to reassess training and tactics to avoid further losses of this nature.
Investigate reports of forced contract signings within Russian forces: This highlights vulnerabilities within the Russian military recruitment system and potential for further unrest.
Assess the impact of low morale and illness within Ukrainian forces: Address these issues through improved troop support, improved supply lines, and addressing leadership issues.
Evaluate the potential impact of increased US sanctions on Russian oil: Assess the potential for escalating tensions and the impact on global oil prices.
Analyze the successful Ukrainian drone strike on the Russian Supercam drone: Assess the effectiveness of Ukrainian air defenses and adjust operational plans accordingly.
Conclusion:
The situation is very volatile and constantly shifting. Russian forces are continuing their advances and their drone warfare capabilities are increasingly sophisticated. Ukrainian forces are still actively fighting in all regions, often using drone technology. The use of both propaganda and disinformation on all sides continues, and international partners are closely watching the region. Logistical and humanitarian concerns remain a high priority. Financial and political instability are having an impact on all parties, and both Russia and Ukraine are seeking to control the narrative. A reevaluation of current strategies is needed and all factors must be considered in future decision-making. The situation continues to evolve rapidly, making constant monitoring and adaptation crucial. The confirmed presence of nuclear weapons in Belarus, and the increasing number of drone strikes, add another layer of instability to the situation. All of these factors highlight a need for a comprehensive and adaptive strategic response.
