Updated Operational Situation Overview - December 12, 2024 (12:26:19 UTC)
Key Developments Since Previous Analysis (11:56:19 UTC)
Continued Fighting and Drone Activity: Heavy fighting continues in Eastern Ukraine, particularly around Novotroitskoye, with ongoing drone warfare activity across the frontlines and inside Russia.
Russian Advances and Ukrainian Counterattacks: Russian forces have advanced near Sudzha and Sverdlikovo in the Kursk region, while Ukrainian forces continue to launch attacks using various kinds of drones, and are still attempting to counter the attacks, even in previously held areas like Novotroitskoye. Ukrainian forces are also reportedly still active in the area of Kalinin.
Ukrainian Energy Infrastructure Issues: Rolling blackouts and damage to the energy infrastructure continue in the Zaporizhzhia region and throughout Ukraine due to Russian strikes. Rolling blackouts are scheduled with maximums of 6 hours per cut and a minimum of two hours in between.
Humanitarian Crises: Civilian casualties continue to rise in Zaporizhzhia, with at least 11 fatalities reported after an attack on December 10th. Reports of water shortages persist in the LNR region. A report of a man falling to his death in a Moscow mall highlights the dangers of urban areas.
Political and Geopolitical:
G7 nations have expressed a desire for a transition in Syria which will create a secular government.
The US Congress is requesting an assessment on the impact of reduced support for Ukraine, and has also directed the intelligence services to assess the threat of military aggression from China, Iran and North Korea.
Macron has arrived in Warsaw to discuss peacekeeping forces in Ukraine.
Russia is seeking prisoner exchanges with Ukraine.
Russia continues to signal a willingness to return to negotiations with Ukraine, but still based on preconditions that the Ukrainian government will not agree to.
Medvedev says that peace talks would be feasible if the US participated more actively and also if Ukraine accepted the “realities on the ground”, a phrase which refers to Russia’s occupation of Ukrainian territory. He also mentioned that Trump's comments regarding a one-day resolution to the conflict are merely "election promises.”
NATO is concerned about the use of Oreshnik missiles by Russian and Belarusian forces and how it may impact the conflict.
Internal Security:
There are increasing reports of corruption and internal issues within the Ukrainian military and within other civilian institutions, highlighting the need to address internal corruption and misconduct.
Russia is implementing new fines for public intoxication and for traffic offenses which could indicate a desire to tamp down public unrest.
* The Ukrainian government is also implementing changes to restrictions on credit card transfers.
* Russia also seems to be attempting to relocate Ukrainian civilians to Russia.
Technological Warfare:
Drone warfare continues to escalate with both sides actively using drones.
A report of a Ukrainian FPV drone striking a Russian tank near Sverdlikovo in Kursk Oblast highlights the intensity of the conflict in this region.
There are reports of Russia using the new Molniya 2.0 drone which is highly resistant to REB.
* There are reports that Ukrainian forces are using drones to drop anti-tank mines as well as using drones to attack targets deep inside Russia, which the Russian government acknowledges.
* Reports have come out that Russian forces have used FPV drones to destroy an M113, and have also shot down other drones with a ZALA Lancet. Russian forces also continue to engage in attacks using multiple launch rocket systems (MLRS).
* Ukrainian forces are developing and using new missile systems, and new drone missiles.
* Russia has also stated that the naval nuclear fleet has been completely modernized.
Other Conflicts
The conflict in Syria remains volatile, following the collapse of the Assad government. There are ongoing reports of executions, terrorism, and large scale refugee movements. The Israeli military has reduced the level of direct attacks, and has instead begun an occupation of Syrian territory. Russia has begun a major withdrawal of military assets from Syria. There is a possibility that ISIS and other terrorist groups are becoming more powerful due to the political chaos.
A report indicates that a political crisis in Jubaland, Somalia, has escalated, with heavy losses incurred by the Somalian army. The report also indicates that Ethiopian forces are assisting various groups within the country, even as they conduct discussions with the Somali government.
A report indicates that there is a growing US interest in cultural activities and museums in central Asia.
Casualties:
The death toll in Zaporizhzhia has risen to 11, after another body was found in the wreckage.
There are reports that more than 200 Ukrainian troops were killed in the Kursk region over the past 24 hours.
Updated Assessment of Key Areas:
Eastern Ukraine: The area around Novotroitskoye remains contested, with heavy fighting reported, and a dynamic situation with attacks and counterattacks.
Russian Operations in Kursk and Sumy Oblasts: The heavy use of drones by both sides suggests that these areas are being heavily contested. The Russian advances near Sudzha and Sverdlikovo show a continued offensive pressure.
Drone Warfare: Drone usage continues to be a dominant factor, with both sides using them for surveillance, strikes, and logistics. New drones and counter drone technology are being tested by both sides.
Logistics: Logistical routes in all contested regions are under heavy fire. Supply lines are being tested and supply issues are being reported. Russian facilities inside of Russia are being targeted with Ukrainian drones and missiles.
Propaganda and Information Warfare: Propaganda and disinformation continues to be a common feature of the conflict. Both sides attempt to influence public opinion to strengthen morale and destabilize their opposition.
Internal Instability: Instability appears to be growing within both Russia and Ukraine, leading to internal issues and challenges for both sides. There are increased reports of social unrest and corruption as well as sabotage operations and arrests.
Syria: The collapse of the Assad government is leading to increased violence and instability, highlighting the need to pay attention to the spread of conflict outside of Ukraine.
IAEA: IAEA vehicles in the region of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power plant continue to be targeted, even after numerous condemnations by IAEA leadership.
Updated Strategic Recommendations for Commanders:
Reinforce Defensive Positions: Continue to reinforce key areas along the front lines, particularly focusing on areas around Pokrovsk, Kurakhovo, and Toretsk, and along the border regions of Sumy, Kharkiv, and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts. Pay close attention to fortified positions, and secure transport routes leading to the areas most likely to experience active combat.
Counter Drone Attacks: Continue to implement enhanced counter-drone measures and technologies. Research new counter-drone methods. Increase counter-intelligence operations to locate hidden personnel and drone operators. Investigate drone attacks and determine weaknesses and loopholes that need to be addressed.
Monitor Border Operations: Focus operations on the border between Russia and Ukraine and implement strategies to protect against incursions. Prioritize security, especially in Kursk and Sumy Oblasts.
Address Troop Morale: Continue to implement and maintain strategies to improve troop morale and address any communication and supply chain issues. Continue investigating any claims of corruption and any reported orders to commit suicide rather than be captured.
Secure Supply Lines: Secure supply lines with extra patrols and defenses. Secure major transport arteries leading to key locations. Secure roads in areas likely to see active combat.
Target Financial Networks: Continue to identify and target financial networks that support illicit military operations.
Counter Propaganda and Information Warfare: Develop and deploy an effective counter-information strategy to combat disinformation narratives by Russia and other groups involved in the conflict. Monitor propaganda and misinformation on communications platforms like Telegram. Investigate any claims of electoral interference.
Civilian Protection: Continue to prioritize civilian protection and support services for displaced people. Maintain reliable access to water and communication, and access to medical support. Address the rising civilian casualties in areas like Zaporizhzhia.
Address Sanctions Circumvention: Continue to work with international partners to limit Russia’s ability to circumvent international sanctions.
Address the Syrian Instability: Closely monitor the situation in Syria and analyze its potential impacts on regional stability and the possibility of a resurgence of terrorist groups. Closely monitor the involvement of Iran and the activities of the Israeli military.
Monitor Russian Mobilization Efforts: Monitor and analyze Russian mobilization and recruitment campaigns.
Prepare for CBRN Threats: Prepare for potential chemical, biological, radiological, and nuclear threats and be aware of the confirmed presence of nuclear weapons in Belarus.
Address Potential for EU Peacekeepers: Analyze the potential impacts of deploying European Peacekeepers and prepare for the possibility of post-conflict operations with peacekeeper forces.
Improve Logistical Operations: Improve logistical operations, especially in areas experiencing supply chain disruptions. Investigate any corruption leading to logistical issues. Improve logistical support to Ukrainian drone units. Address the logistical failures contributing to low morale and the abandoning of troops, especially near Kurakhovo.
Monitor Military Operations: Maintain active intelligence and surveillance of all military activity to assess strengths and weaknesses. Look for any weakness or vulnerabilities for exploitation. Monitor for acts of sabotage in both Russia and Ukraine. Improve intelligence capabilities to counteract the effective use of drones by Russia. Monitor for internal instability within Russia, and internal corruption within the Ukrainian forces. Monitor actions in areas such as Syria, especially Israel's operations and the possible resurgence of ISIS.
Assess Impact of Economic and Political Instability: Monitor and assess the impacts of economic and political instability within Russia and Ukraine. Monitor the impact of new financial restrictions in Ukraine.
Address Reports of Atrocities: Investigate and address reports of atrocities coming from Kursk Oblast and from Syria. Address reports of extra-judicial killings, particularly those involving surrendering combatants. Clarify rules of engagement to prevent similar events.
Assess the impact of the reported deaths of prominent Syrian figures, including a chemist and a theologian.
Address the large-scale surrender of Syrian soldiers.
Address the potential for increased ballistic missile attacks from Belarus.
Address the increased frequency of air raid sirens in Western and Northern Ukraine.
Assess the implications of the resumption of Russian passenger rail service with China and North Korea.
Address the potential impact of the reported inappropriate behavior of a Scottish council leader toward Ukrainian refugees.
Assess the implications of the proposed Ukrainian arms export policy.
Monitor Weather Conditions: Account for the impact of severe weather conditions on military operations and civilian populations. Address water shortages in the LNR. Note that adverse weather conditions may be impacting drone operations.
Address the Potential for Increased Use of Long-Range Ballistic Missiles: Assess the threat level, and prepare for possible increased Russian use of long-range ballistic missiles.
Address the Confirmed Presence of Nuclear Weapons in Belarus: Reassess the threat level posed by the confirmed presence of nuclear weapons in Belarus. Address any statements made by Lukashenko regarding the use of these weapons.
Address Internal Corruption: Continue to address reports of corruption within both the Ukrainian military and civilian sectors. Address the apparent lack of accountability within the command structure. Investigate any reports of faulty munitions being supplied to the front lines.
Monitor Russian troop movements: Monitor and analyze reports of Russia using foreign troops in Ukraine, including forces from North Korea.
Monitor and respond to drone attacks in Russia: Address the vulnerability of supply and production centers inside Russia. Assess the impact of these strikes on Russia's war-making capabilities.
Assess the impact of economic issues: Analyze the impact of new Russian policies which are increasing the amount of fines that citizens will have to pay, such as traffic violations, and drinking and driving, and consider the possible economic impact of that on Russian citizens.
Assess Belarus's use of Oreshnik Missiles: Monitor and assess the implications of Belarus’s plan to deploy Oreshnik missiles, and the potential impact on Russian strategic operations. Monitor the implications of increased drone activity in Sumy and Kharkhiv.
Monitor Russia's growing ties with China: Assess the implications of growing ties between Russia and China, especially given the public meeting between Medvedev and Xi Jinping.
Address Ukrainian Energy Issues: Monitor the implications of the ongoing rolling blackouts in Ukraine and their effects on the military, civilian, and industrial infrastructure.
Monitor activity related to international organizations: Monitor the activity of the Red Cross, WHO, OSCE, UN, and other international organizations to ensure the safety of international personnel and the reliability of data being reported.
Anticipate Weather Impact on Operations: Anticipate severe weather and prepare to operate in such conditions.
Monitor Ukrainian Civilian Actions: Monitor Ukrainian civilian infrastructure, civilian protests, and other sources of public unrest.
Monitor Ukrainian Infrastructure: Pay close attention to Ukrainian energy infrastructure to assess its vulnerability and readiness.
Monitor Russian Military Actions: Monitor Russian recruitment methods and practices. Note the presence of prisoners and soldiers from other countries.
Address Atrocities: Investigate claims of widespread extortion and human rights violations in both Russia and Ukraine.
Conclusion:
The situation is very volatile and constantly shifting. Russian forces are continuing their advances and their drone warfare capabilities are increasingly sophisticated. Ukrainian forces are still actively fighting in all regions, often using drone technology. The use of both propaganda and disinformation on all sides continues, and international partners are closely watching the region. Logistical and humanitarian concerns remain a high priority. Financial and political instability are having an impact on all parties, and both Russia and Ukraine are seeking to control the narrative. A reevaluation of current strategies is needed and all factors must be considered in future decision-making. The situation continues to evolve rapidly, making constant monitoring and adaptation crucial. The confirmed presence of nuclear weapons in Belarus, and the increasing number of drone strikes, add another layer of instability to the situation. All of these factors highlight a need for a comprehensive and adaptive strategic response.
This analysis reflects all available information up to the current time (Thu Dec 12 12:26:19 2024).
