Situation Report

Updated Operational Situation Overview - December 12, 2024 (11:56:19 UTC)

The situation remains volatile with heavy fighting in Eastern Ukraine, particularly around Novotroitskoye, and the border regions of Sumy and Kursk Oblasts. Drone warfare continues to escalate with attacks happening inside Russia and across the frontlines. Diplomatic efforts are ongoing but seem to be unsuccessful. Internal instability is also a growing concern.

Key Developments Since Previous Analysis (11:27:03 UTC)

• Eastern Front:
  • Russian forces continue to push towards Novotroitskoye, making advances of over 600 meters in the western part of the settlement, taking control of residential areas under Ukrainian fire.
• Kursk and Sumy Oblasts:
  • Russian forces have liberated Novoyivanovka in Kursk Oblast after heavy fighting.
  • Russian forces are actively pushing into the Kursk region from liberated positions in Plekhovo, with reports of fighting near Guevo, and advancing south-easterly from Sudzha.
  • Ukrainian drones and missiles are actively striking Russian facilities along the border regions, such as Bryansk, Taganrog, and Kursk.
• Drone Warfare:
  • Ukrainian drones are targeting Russian positions, equipment, and personnel in the Kursk and Sumy regions and in occupied territories. These drones are being used against tanks, vehicles, positions, infrastructure, and personnel.
  • Russian forces are deploying FPV drones targeting Ukrainian armor and aircraft on the ground.
  • Drone attacks on facilities in Russia have been reported, including a Transneft oil depot in Bryansk Oblast.
  • Ukrainian forces have used drones and specialized systems to lay mines in the Serebryansk forest.
  • Ukrainian drones are targeting positions in the Kursk region, destroying equipment and personnel.
  • Sumy and Poltava oblasts are under threat of enemy drone attack.
• Political and Geopolitical:
  • Orban's Peace Proposal: Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán proposed a major prisoner exchange and a Christmas ceasefire with Russia.
  • Ukrainian Rejection: Kyiv has rejected all of Orbán's proposed initiatives. Russia also gave a list of POW's to Hungary, which was also rejected by Ukraine.
  • Scholz's Position: German Chancellor Olaf Scholz has expressed a willingness to continue discussions with Putin, despite his disappointment in their last phone call.
  • EU and NATO: A Czech diplomat with the OSCE has stated he will prepare Kyiv for further membership in both EU and NATO.
  • EU Support: The European Commission allocated 50 million Euros to Finland for strengthening its eastern border controls.
  • Schengen Expansion: Romania and Bulgaria are slated to join the Schengen zone from January 1, 2025.
  • Central Asia: US interest in cultural issues in Central Asia continues to grow, with US support for cultural heritage and museum groups in Kyrgyzstan.
• Internal Security:
  • Russian officials continue to arrest people for sabotaging railways, particularly Russian-Germans working for Ukrainian Intelligence.
  • A Russian military court extended the detention of Ukrainian soldiers accused of infiltrating the Kursk region.
  • Two Russian soldiers with prior convictions were involved in a fight at a hostel, resulting in one person being stabbed.
  • The Russian Duma is increasing fines for traffic violations, reducing the discount for quick payments, and for offenses such as driving while drunk. These measures may be linked to internal instability and attempts to control population unrest.
  • There are numerous complaints from Russian civilians about lack of housing, poor infrastructure, and other domestic issues.
  • A former Russian soldier has surrendered to Ukrainian forces after suffering severe frostbite and claims that he was conscripted to fight to pay off his personal debt.
  • A volunteer from the Russian military has filed a police report regarding threats to his life.
• Casualties and Personnel:
  • Reports indicate that more than 200 Ukrainian troops were killed in the Kursk region over the past 24 hours.
  • Reports suggest a designer of the Kh-69 missile, Mikhail Shatsky, has been assassinated in Moscow.
• Other:
  • The Russian ministry of defense has said that the naval nuclear fleet has been completely modernized.
  • A fire has broken out at a storage facility in the Altai region, and at a second facility in Barnaul, which is being investigated.
  • The Russian Ministry of Finance has increased the limits on "Family Mortgages."
  • New features in the Yandex Go application are set to show user queues in busy areas.
  • A Russian soldier, who was previously convicted of rape and armed robbery, stabbed a civilian in a fight.

Updated Assessment of Key Areas:

• Eastern Ukraine: Russian forces are still making tactical advances near Novotroitskoye. Ukrainian resistance is robust. The area around Kupyansk remains contested. The situation around Kurakhovo, Pokrovsk and Toretsk is not seeing massive changes from previous reports.
• Russian Operations in Kursk and Sumy Oblasts: Russian forces have liberated Novoyivanovka and are advancing near Guevo, signifying a strategic push in the Kursk region. The loss of more than 200 troops indicates a heavy cost to Ukrainian forces. Russian forces are also advancing in Sumy Oblast, forcing Ukrainian retreats. The heavy usage of drones by both sides in these border areas highlights this as an area of concern.
• Drone Warfare: Drone activity has surged, with both sides employing them for strikes, reconnaissance, and electronic warfare. Counter-drone measures are crucial. Ukraine is using drone and missile strikes on infrastructure targets inside of Russia. Russian FPV drones and guided bombs are being used against the Ukrainian military. Ukrainian drones are being used for attacks against Russian military and strategic targets.
• Syria: The situation in Syria is increasingly chaotic with reports of summary executions and terrorist activities following the fall of the Assad government. ISIS and other terrorist forces are growing in strength. Russia maintains its naval presence. The Israeli military has reduced strikes, and is instead occupying Syrian territory.
• Logistics: In the Eastern front, Ukrainian logistical lines are under severe pressure and Russian forces are targeting logistical routes. Russian logistical routes are being targeted inside of Russia, with missile and drone strikes impacting key strategic infrastructure.
• Propaganda: Russian media channels continue to release propaganda, while Ukrainian media channels seek to counter that messaging. Russian state media continues its messaging campaigns to show Russia as a world power.
• Information Warfare: Information and disinformation continue to be used as a weapon. Encrypted chat applications like Telegram are being scrutinized and there have been discussions of restricting their use.
• Internal Instability: Reports of internal dissent and instability in Russia are increasing, with reports of social issues, corruption, theft and a large number of arrests for sabotage. Ukrainian forces have also arrested multiple propagandists and members of organizations believed to undermine the government.
• EU and Schengen Area: As of Jan 1, 2025 Romania and Bulgaria will join the Schengen area.
• Economic Issues: Reports of increased fines in Russia for traffic and alcohol violations suggest increasing stress on the civilian population.
• Humanitarian Issues: Reports of water shortages in LNR persist.

Updated Strategic Recommendations for Commanders:

1. Reinforce Defenses: Strengthen and focus on defending key locations along the frontlines, particularly Pokrovsk, Kurakhovo, and Toretsk, but also strengthen defenses along the border regions of Sumy, Kharkiv and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts. Pay particular attention to fortified positions to prevent them from being captured without a fight. Secure transport routes, particularly roads around Pokrovsk, which is likely to be the scene of combat. Secure transportation arteries leading to Kurakhovo.
2. Counter Drone Attacks: Deploy enhanced counter-drone measures and new counter-drone technology to protect strategic assets and personnel. Research new methods of defense to deal with the ever-increasing threat from drones. Increase counterintelligence operations to uncover hidden personnel and drone operators. Investigate all drone attacks and determine weaknesses, loopholes, and methods that have been used to defeat defenses.
3. Monitor Border Operations: Pay particular attention to the border regions between Russia and Ukraine and implement defenses to protect against incursions. Prioritize the security of border towns, particularly in the Kursk and Sumy Oblasts.
4. Address Troop Morale: Implement and maintain strategies to boost troop morale and address the logistical gaps in communication and supply. Work to improve communication between leadership and combat troops. Continue to investigate claims of low morale and internal corruption. Investigate the validity of reports regarding orders to commit suicide instead of being captured.
5. Secure Supply Lines: Prioritize securing supply lines. Secure transport arteries leading to key locations like Kurakhovo. Secure roads in the area of Pokrovsk.
6. Target Financial Networks: Identify and target financial networks used by both sides, particularly those supporting illicit military operations.
7. Counter Propaganda and Information Warfare: Develop and deploy an effective counter-information strategy to combat Russian narratives and any disinformation campaigns by other parties involved in the conflict. Address growing use of disinformation campaigns by both sides. Counter Russian disinformation regarding incursions into Sumy Oblast. Continue to monitor information warfare tactics, including those propagated on messaging applications like Telegram. Investigate claims of election interference. Analyze and track disinformation and propaganda being pushed by all parties involved in the conflict, and adjust messaging accordingly.
8. Civilian Protection: Continue to prioritize civilian protection and support services for displaced people. Maintain medical support, access to water, and reliable communication. Address the humanitarian crisis in Ukraine, including the rising civilian casualties. Support the development and maintenance of resilience centers in high-risk areas. Continue to address the humanitarian impact of missile attacks in areas like Zaporizhzhia, and provide support to those affected by the mass evacuation order in Yenakiieve and Zlatopole.
9. Address Sanctions Circumvention: Continue to work with international partners to limit Russia’s ability to circumvent international sanctions.
10. Address the Syrian Instability: Closely monitor the situation in Syria and analyze potential impacts on regional stability and the possible resurgence of terrorist groups. Closely monitor Iranian attempts to maintain influence in the region following the fall of Assad's regime. Monitor Israel's potential occupation of Damascus. Monitor the Syrian opposition's withdrawal from captured cities. Monitor the potential for IS resurgence due to the collapse of the Assad regime.
11. Monitor Russian Mobilization Efforts: Monitor and analyze Russian mobilization and recruitment campaigns.
12. Prepare for CBRN Threats: Prepare for potential chemical, biological, radiological, and nuclear threats by having appropriate equipment and training. Pay particular attention to the confirmed presence of nuclear weapons in Belarus and Lukashenko's statements regarding their use.
13. Address Potential for EU Peacekeepers: Further analyze the potential deployment of European Peacekeepers and the implications this could have for the conflict, as well as post-conflict operations. Closely monitor the potential deployment of international peacekeeping forces to Ukraine, and consider the impacts these would have on both current operations and future scenarios.
14. Improve Logistical Operations: Improve logistical operations, particularly in areas experiencing supply chain failures. Investigate and address corruption leading to supply chain issues. Improve logistical support for Ukrainian drone units. Address the logistical challenges highlighted by the Ukrainian military officer's testimony regarding the mobilization efforts. Address the critical logistical failures contributing to low morale and abandonment of troops, especially in Kurakhovo. Address widespread reports of theft and looting in Ukrainian rear areas. Address the potential impact of Ukrainian banks reducing card-to-card transfer limits. Ensure that all personnel have access to water, particularly in the LNR region.
15. Monitor Military Operations: Continue active intelligence and surveillance of all military activity to assess strengths and weaknesses. Continue to monitor the ongoing conflict and look for weaknesses or potential vulnerabilities for exploitation. Monitor for acts of sabotage within Russia and Ukraine, paying particular attention to potential Ukrainian operations using online recruiting and targeting critical infrastructure. Improve intelligence capabilities to counteract increasingly effective Russian use of drones. Increase focus on identifying and neutralizing potential sabotage efforts inside Russia. Monitor the potential for internal instability within Russia given the video appeal from residents of the settlement of Perevalovo in the Tyumen Oblast. Address reports of corruption within Ukrainian military and civilian organizations. Assess the implications of the large-scale Israeli strike on Latakia. Monitor Iranian attempts to maintain influence in the region following the fall of Assad's regime. Monitor Israel's potential occupation of Damascus. Monitor the Syrian opposition's withdrawal from captured cities. Closely monitor the situation in Manbij and Turkish involvement. Monitor Israeli operations closely. Monitor the potential impact of HTS being removed from the terrorist list. Monitor the Russian withdrawal from Syria. Monitor the increasing reports of DRG activity in Pokrovsk and the surrounding areas.
16. Assess Impact of Economic and Political Instability: Continue to monitor and assess the impact of economic and political instability both in Russia and in Ukraine. Monitor and analyze the impact of the increased restrictions on payments being implemented by Ukrainian banks.
17. Address Reports of Atrocities: Investigate and address the reports of atrocities, particularly those coming from Kursk Oblast (POW camp strike and other incidents) and from Syria (public execution, execution of wounded soldiers). Investigate and address reports of extrajudicial killings, particularly those involving surrendering combatants and the use of drones. Clarify rules of engagement to prevent similar incidents.
18. Assess the impact of the reported deaths of prominent Syrian figures, including a chemist and a theologian.
19. Address the large-scale surrender of Syrian soldiers.
20. Address the potential for increased ballistic missile attacks from Belarus.
21. Address the increased frequency of air raid sirens in Western and Northern Ukraine.
22. Assess the implications of the resumption of Russian passenger rail service with China and North Korea.
23. Address the potential impact of the reported inappropriate behavior of a Scottish council leader toward Ukrainian refugees.
24. Assess the implications of the proposed Ukrainian arms export policy.
25. Monitor Weather Conditions: Account for the impact of severe weather conditions on military operations and civilian populations. Address the water shortages in the LNR. Address the impact of severe weather on troop morale and operational readiness. Note that adverse weather conditions may be impacting Russian drone operations.
26. Address the Potential for Increased Use of Long-Range Ballistic Missiles: Assess and respond to the potential for increased Russian use of long-range ballistic missiles. Note that Russia is reportedly capable of producing 25 Oreshnik missiles per month.
27. Address the Confirmed Presence of Nuclear Weapons in Belarus: Reassess the threat level posed by the confirmed presence of nuclear weapons in Belarus. Address the confirmed presence of nuclear weapons in Belarus and Lukashenko's statements regarding their use.
28. Address Internal Corruption: Address reports of widespread corruption and extortion within both the military and civilian populations in Ukraine. Address the apparent lack of accountability within the Ukrainian military command structure. Investigate reports of faulty munitions being supplied to front-line units.
29. Monitor Russian troop movements: Monitor reports of Russia using troops from different nations in the Ukraine theater, including forces from North Korea.
30. Monitor and respond to drone attacks in Russia: Address the Ukrainian drone and missile strikes against various facilities inside Russia. Address the vulnerability of supply and production centers inside Russia from drone attacks. Assess the impact of these strikes on Russia's war-making capabilities.
31. Assess the impact of economic issues: Analyze the impact of new Russian policies which are increasing the amount of fines that citizens will have to pay, such as traffic violations, and drinking and driving, and consider the possible economic impact of that on Russian citizens.
32. Assess Belarus's use of Oreshnik Missiles: Monitor and assess the implications of Belarus’s plan to deploy Oreshnik missiles, and the potential impact on Russian strategic operations. Monitor the implications of increased drone activity in Sumy and Kharkhiv.
33. Monitor Russia's growing ties with China: Assess the implications of growing ties between Russia and China, especially given the public meeting between Medvedev and Xi Jinping.
34. Address Ukrainian Energy Issues: Monitor the implications of the ongoing rolling blackouts in Ukraine and their effects on the military, civilian, and industrial infrastructure. Address the new rolling blackout plans in Ukraine, and assess the impact on the civilian population, the industrial capacity, and war support logistics.
35. Monitor activity related to international organizations: Monitor the activity of the Red Cross, WHO, OSCE, UN, and other international organizations to ensure the safety of international personnel and the reliability of data being reported.
36. Anticipate Weather Impact on Operations: Anticipate severe weather and prepare to operate in such conditions.
37. Monitor Ukrainian Civilian Actions: Monitor Ukrainian civilian infrastructure, civilian protests, and other sources of public unrest. Note the lack of elevators, lifts, drainage, broken play equipment, and poor building construction in the areas of the protests.
38. Monitor Ukrainian Infrastructure: Pay close attention to Ukrainian energy infrastructure to assess its vulnerability and readiness. Note the new rolling blackout times. Monitor and address disruptions to card-to-card payments in Ukraine.
39. Monitor Russian Military Actions: Monitor Russian recruitment methods and practices. Note the presence of prisoners and soldiers from other countries.
40. Address Atrocities: Investigate claims of widespread extortion and human rights violations in both Russia and Ukraine.

Conclusion:

The operational situation remains complex with Russian forces pressing advances in eastern Ukraine and border regions and engaging in drone warfare, while Ukrainian forces demonstrate resilience and seek international support. Both sides face challenges, including logistical deficiencies, low morale, and internal communication failures. Information warfare is being used by all sides to influence internal and external support. The international geopolitical landscape is shifting, with new alliances, diplomatic initiatives, and economic shifts. The instability in Syria has implications for regional stability and may play a role in the future of the conflict. The increasing use of drones by all sides highlights the need to develop robust counter-measures. The economic instability and internal issues within both Russia and Ukraine are becoming increasingly relevant. A strategy to counter-information, combat internal dissent and corruption, and limit sanctions circumvention is required. The potential for increased use of long-range ballistic missiles by Russia needs to be factored into strategic calculations. The ongoing mobilization challenges in Ukraine, the confirmation of nuclear weapons in Belarus, and the lack of effective command and control in the Ukrainian military and ongoing corruption are also major concerns. The increasing level of drone usage on all sides requires attention and resources. Finally, the ongoing humanitarian crises within Ukraine and Syria require ongoing commitment to supporting civilians and displaced persons.

The situation continues to evolve rapidly. Continuous monitoring and adaptation are vital. The recent gains by Russian forces may not be as strong as initially anticipated. Rising tension and conflict in other regions, most notably Syria, adds a layer of volatility. Increased use of misinformation, propaganda, and cyber activity further complicates the situation. This analysis reflects all available information up to the current time (Thu Dec 12 11:56:19 2024).