Updated Operational Situation Overview - December 12, 2024 (08:38 UTC)
Key Developments
Taganrog Airstrike Aftermath:
Russian military casualties confirmed as 1 killed and 41 wounded in the ATACMS missile strike on the military airfield and aviation repair factory.
Apartment buildings damaged in Taganrog have been repaired.
Grozny Drone Attack: A drone attack on a police special forces barracks in Grozny resulted in minor injuries to 4 guards. Chechen leader Kadyrov blames Ukraine.
Kursk and Sumy Oblast Advances:
Russian forces have reportedly liberated Daryino, and continue to advance in the Sudzha district, particularly near Novoivanovka, the forests near Mala Loknya, Sverdlikovo and Martynovka.
Russian forces are reportedly advancing into Sumy Oblast, forcing a Ukrainian retreat.
Ukrainian forces report repelling 22 Russian assaults in the Kursk region.
Pokrovsk Direction: Fighting remains "exceptionally harsh," with Russian forces pushing south from Pokrovsk. Fights near Shevchenko, Pischane, Novotroyitske, Novooleksiyivka, Novyy Trud, Dachenske, Lysivka, Myrolubivka, Promin and Pokrovsk have been reported. Ukrainian forces report sustaining 203 attacks in the last two days in the region.
Kurakhovo/Velyka Novoselka Direction: Russian advances continue south of Kurakhove near Sontsivka, Stari Terny, Dachenske, Zoria, Kurakhove, Dachne, Katerynivka, Yelyzavetivka, Hanivka, Antonivka and Uspenivka. Russian forces have taken an outpost near Uspenovka. New information indicates a Russian advance from Starie Terny towards Dachnoe, which impacts the Kurakhove-Zaporizhzhia highway and the western exit from Kurakhovo.
Toretsk/Kramatorsk Direction: Russian air attacks are targeting Toretsk and fighting reported near Toretsk, Chasiv Yar and Stupochky.
Other Fronts:
Russian air attacks target Krymske, Petrivka, Komar, Rozlyv and Vremivka of Donetsk region.
Fighting continues near Zapadne, Pischane, Loziv and Zahryzove in the Kupyansk area.
Fighting reported near Tverdokhlibove, Druzhelubivka, Novoyehorivka, Hrekivka, Makiyivka, Terny, Torske, Hryhorivka, Kopanka and Serebryanskyi forest in the Lyman axis.
Fighting reported near Verkhnokamyanske in the Sieversk axis.
Fighting reported near Trudove, Kostyantynopolske, Sukhykh Yaliv, Blahodatne and Novodarivka in the Vremivka axis.
Fighting reported near Novoandriyivka in the Orikhiv axis.
Ukrainian forces have repelled 5 Russian assaults on the Kherson axis.
Russian Forces Blocked at Kurakhovo TPP: A group of Russian forces remains blocked within the Kurakhovo Thermal Power Plant. Ukrainian forces are still attempting to break out. Ukrainian forces report that all supply routes to Kurakhovo are under Russian fire or control, leaving little chance of survival without surrender.
Ukrainian Conscription: Ukrainian conscription rates have decreased from 35,000 to 20,000 per month. The US is pressuring Ukraine to lower the conscription age to 18. A BBC report indicates conscription is not keeping up with losses.
Psychological Operations:
Ukrainian POW reports soldiers are told to commit suicide rather than be captured.
A Russian Telegram channel posted a meme reinforcing the idea that Ukrainian soldiers do not want to fight.
Russian Air Activity: Russian tactical aviation launched guided aerial bombs on the Donetsk axis.
Ukrainian Drone Operations: Ukrainian drone teams are actively targeting Russian vehicles and positions. One Russian FPV operator destroyed a Ukrainian "Plastun-3000" electronic warfare station, while other operators are actively being targeted and destroyed.
Ukrainian Internal Security:
A Ukrainian supporter of the Shariy Party was arrested for plotting to overthrow the government. A network of propagandists, taking orders from outside of Ukraine, was also uncovered.
Ukrainian Morale: The 47th Separate Mechanized Brigade is celebrating the "Day of Ground Forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine". Ukrainian forces published photographs showing areas they have recaptured.
Ukrainian Equipment Losses: Russia claims to have destroyed a Ukrainian armored vehicle in Kharkiv Oblast with a drone strike.
Ukrainian Equipment Display: Russia created a display of captured Ukrainian vehicles.
Sanctions Circumvention: European manufacturers are continuing to send weapons to Russia via Turkey, Georgia, Armenia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan. Beretta, a European company, continues to work with Russia and has provided over 1000 weapons to Russian forces.
Syrian Instability:
Syrian rebel groups are releasing images of Russian equipment and vehicles on the road but have orders not to engage.
Infighting and instability persist in Syria.
Russian forces are reportedly withdrawing from Syria but naval assets remain.
OSCE Tensions: An OSCE representative is preparing Kyiv for EU and NATO membership, circumventing Russia. Russia responds with accusations of dividing Europe.
Russian Border Operations:
The Russian FSB launched a recruitment campaign in Crimea for candidates aged 18 to 40.
Russian forces are increasing counter-terrorism activities in border regions.
Russian Domestic Issues:
Russian state media received over 500,000 requests for Putin's direct-line call. Most are related to transportation, housing, medical, and social payments.
A survey in Moscow found 1 in 6 women are returning dresses after work events. Shop owners are adding large tags warning about damage caused by returns.
Zaporizhzhia Oblast There is a program in place for free cancer screening for internally displaced peoples.
Russian Logistics: Russia is facing difficulties with logistics, illustrated by soldiers having to manually create bunkers using their own funds.
Russian Military: There is an increasing amount of corruption in the Russian military, as well as a lack of morale among its soldiers. The Russian military is now seeking recruits aged 18 to 40 in Crimea.
Russian Propaganda: There is evidence that Russian propaganda is actively targeting both its own and the Ukrainian population to promote and continue the war effort.
Updated Assessment of Key Areas:
Eastern Ukraine: Russian forces continue to make significant advances, especially near Pokrovsk, Kurakhove, and Velyka Novoselka, as well as increased attacks near Toretsk, with intense fighting across the Donbas region. Ukrainian forces are struggling to hold defensive positions and are losing ground. Supply lines to Kurakhovo have been severed.
Russian Operations in Kursk and Sumy Oblasts: Russian forces are continuing to advance in these regions, focusing on territorial control. Ukrainian forces are using drone attacks in the Kursk region, but this has not slowed the advances. Russian forces are reported to be advancing in Sumy Oblast.
Drone Warfare: Drones are increasingly used by both sides for reconnaissance, surveillance, and targeted attacks, including FPV drones. There is a need for more effective counter-drone measures.
Information Warfare: Both sides actively engage in information warfare, attempting to undermine opponent morale and influence public opinion through propaganda. Social media is a critical part of these operations.
Internal Security: Both Ukraine and Russia are actively working to prevent and deter internal threats. Russia is increasing counter-terrorism operations in border regions. Ukraine has arrested Shariy Party members and propagandists to undermine internal destabilization.
Economic Instability: The Russian economy shows continued signs of struggle with evidence of corruption, economic uncertainty, and decreased stability.
Humanitarian Crisis: Civilian casualties continue to rise, particularly in areas heavily targeted by missiles and artillery. Civilian access to basic medical services is a primary concern, especially for displaced peoples.
Updated Strategic Recommendations for Commanders:
Strengthen Defenses: Fortify key locations of Pokrovsk and Kurakhove due to heightened Russian military activity. Enhance defenses against advancing Russian forces in the Sumy and Dnipropetrovsk regions. Improve fortifications and counter-battery measures to better defend the region. Increase focus on securing transport arteries leading to Kurakhove.
Address Troop Morale: Counter Russian psychological operations by developing and implementing strategies to boost morale. Investigate claims of low morale, as well as any claims of internal corruption. Address logistical challenges to ensure troops are well supported. Work to improve communication between leadership and combat troops.
Enhance Air and Counter-Drone Measures: Prioritize air defense and deploy effective counter-drone measures and new counter-drone technology. Research new methods of defense to deal with the ever increasing threat from drones. Focus on drone countermeasures.
Secure Supply Lines: Evaluate and secure logistical routes and find alternate paths to prevent disruptions.
Target Financial Networks: Actively work to identify and target Russian financial networks used to support military operations.
Enhance Drone Capabilities: Develop and deploy advanced drone technology for both surveillance and attacks, focusing on drone countermeasures.
Counter Russian Propaganda: Develop and implement an effective counter-information strategy to combat Russian narratives. Address information warfare tactics, and provide clear and consistent counter-narratives.
Focus on Internal Stability: Continue counterintelligence and law enforcement operations to disrupt internal threats, including pro-Russian political networks. Focus on uncovering and mitigating internal sabotage efforts.
Civilian Protection: Prioritize civilian protection and support services for internally displaced people. Maintain medical support and communication.
Address Sanctions Circumvention: Work with international partners to limit Russia’s ability to circumvent international sanctions.
Address the Syrian Instability: Closely monitor the situation in Syria and analyze potential impacts on regional stability.
Investigate Claims of Election Interference: Investigate claims of Russian interference in the Romanian elections.
Monitor Russian Mobilization Efforts: Monitor and analyze Russian mobilization and recruitment campaigns.
Prepare for CBRN Threats: Prepare for potential chemical, biological, radiological, and nuclear threats by having appropriate equipment and training.
Address Potential for EU Peacekeepers: Further analyze the potential deployment of European Peacekeepers and the implications this could have for the conflict, as well as post conflict operations.
Address Disinformation: Analyze and track disinformation and propaganda being pushed by all parties involved in the conflict, and adjust messaging accordingly.
Improve Logistical Operations: Improve logistical operations, particularly in areas experiencing supply chain failures. Investigate and address corruption leading to supply chain issues.
Monitor Military Operations: Continue active intelligence and surveillance of all military activity to assess strengths and weaknesses. Continue to monitor the ongoing conflict and look for weaknesses or potential vulnerabilities for exploitation.
Assess Impact of Economic and Political Instability: Continue to monitor and assess the impact of economic and political instability both in Russia and in Ukraine.
Conclusion:
The operational situation remains unstable. Russian forces are advancing in eastern Ukraine, and are also increasing attacks in other regions including Kursk and Sumy, while also suffering from heavy casualties. Drones are a key component of the battlefield. Ukraine is facing significant challenges, including logistical issues, decreasing morale, and internal threats. The claims of widespread corruption and internal sabotage further emphasize this, and this is something that must be immediately addressed. Both sides are actively engaging in information campaigns, which are designed to undermine their opponents while building support among their own populations. The possibility of reduced financial support from western countries, as well as the potential for the Syrian conflict to expand represent new challenges that must be addressed to continue the war effort. Additionally, the Russian military is showing an increasing number of logistical and morale problems, and evidence of ongoing corruption and instability, all of which represent a vulnerability that can be exploited.
