Updated Operational Situation Overview – December 12, 2024 (As of 08:08 UTC)
Key Developments:
Taganrog Airstrike Details:
The overnight missile attack on Taganrog was confirmed to be carried out with ATACMS missiles, targeting a military airfield, aviation repair factory, and a military base belonging to the 5th Aviation Group of the 6955th Aviation Base.
The attack resulted in 27 apartment buildings losing heat due to damage to a boiler plant on the factory site, which was subsequently fixed.
A total of 41 Russian servicemen were wounded and 1 was killed.
Russian forces claim that it was Ukraine that carried out the attack.
Grozny Drone Attack: A drone attack occurred in Grozny, targeting a police special forces barracks, causing minor injuries to 4 guards and the drone was shot down. Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov is blaming Ukraine.
Kursk Oblast Advances:
Russian forces have reportedly liberated the village of Daryino in the Sudzha district.
Russian forces are continuing to advance in the north of the Sudzha district, particularly near Novoivanovka and the forests near Mala Loknya.
Fighting is also ongoing in the area of Sverdlikovo, near Novoivanovka, and the village of Martynovka, where Ukrainian forces are reportedly launching counterattacks.
Russian forces also are reportedly pushing into Sumy Oblast, forcing Ukrainian forces to retreat.
Ukrainian forces report that they have repelled 22 Russian army assaults in Kursk Oblast.
Ukrainian forces are reporting that fighting is continuing near Hlyboke, Lyptsi, Starytsya and Vovchansk on the Kharkiv axis.
Pokrovsk Direction: Fighting is described as "exceptionally harsh" for Ukrainian forces with the Russian advance pushing south from Pokrovsk, including fights near Shevchenko, Pischane, Novotroyitske, Novooleksiyivka, Novyy Trud, Dachenske, Lysivka, Myrolubivka, Promin and Pokrovsk itself. Ukrainian forces report having sustained 203 attacks over the last 2 days.
Kurakhovo/Velyka Novoselka Advances: Fighting is also ongoing south of Kurakhove, with Russian forces advancing near Sontsivka, Stari Terny, Dachenske, Zoria, Kurakhove, Dachne, Katerynivka, Yelyzavetivka, Hanivka, Antonivka and Uspenivka.
Toretsk/Kramatorsk: Russian air attacks are targeting Toretsk, and fighting has been reported near Toretsk, Chasiv Yar and Stupochky.
Other Fronts:
Ukrainian forces report that Russian air attacks have targeted Krymske, Petrivka, Komar, Rozlyv and Vremivka of Donetsk region.
Fighting has also been reported near Zapadne, Pischane, Loziv and Zahryzove in the Kupyansk area.
Fighting has also been reported near Tverdokhlibove, Druzhelubivka, Novoyehorivka, Hrekivka, Makiyivka, Terny, Torske, Hryhorivka, Kopanka and Serebryanskyi forest in the Lyman axis.
Fighting has been reported near Verkhnokamyanske in the Sieversk axis.
Fighting has been reported near Trudove, Kostyantynopolske, Sukhykh Yaliv, Blahodatne and Novodarivka in the Vremivka axis.
Fighting has been reported near Novoandriyivka in the Orikhiv axis.
Ukrainian forces have reported that they have repelled 5 Russian assaults on the Kherson axis.
Russian Forces Blocked at Kurakhovo TPP: Ukrainian forces have reportedly blocked a group of Russian forces within the Kurakhovo Thermal Power Plant. Ukrainian forces are reportedly still attempting to break out of the power plant.
Ukrainian Conscription: A report in Le Monde indicates that Ukrainian conscription rates have decreased from an average of 35,000 in the summer to 20,000 per month in the fall. The US is pressuring Ukraine to lower the conscription age to 18. A BBC report claims that current conscription is not keeping up with losses on the front.
Psychological Operations:
A Ukrainian prisoner of war has stated that soldiers heading to the front are being told to commit suicide rather than be captured.
A Russian Telegram channel "Дневник Десантника" posted a meme showing a Ukrainian recruit stating that they should just be "written down as captured," reinforcing the idea that Ukrainian soldiers do not want to fight.
Russian Air Activity: Russian tactical aviation is reported to have launched guided aerial bombs on the Donetsk axis.
Ukrainian Drone Operations: Ukrainian drone teams are actively targeting Russian vehicles and positions, particularly in the Kurakhovo region, using FPV drones and other reconnaissance equipment, resulting in heavy Russian losses. One Russian FPV operator was reported to have successfully struck and destroyed a Ukrainian "Plastun-3000" electronic warfare station. Russian sources are showing that Ukrainian drone operators are also being targeted and destroyed.
Ukrainian Internal Security:
A Ukrainian citizen who is a supporter of the Shariy Party has been arrested on accusations of plotting to overthrow the government.
The investigation has revealed a network of propagandists who take orders from outside of Ukraine.
Ukrainian Morale: The 47th Separate Mechanized Brigade is celebrating the "Day of Ground Forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine" with messages to boost the morale of Ukrainian soldiers.
Ukrainian forces have published a number of photographs showing the areas that they have recaptured including an airport in Donetsk, Kherson, and numerous areas in the Kharkiv Oblast.
Ukrainian Equipment Losses: Russia claims to have destroyed a Ukrainian armored vehicle in Kharkiv Oblast with a drone strike.
Ukrainian Equipment Display: A display of captured Ukrainian vehicles was created, including numerous western-provided military transports, tanks, and weapons.
Sanctions Circumvention: An investigation has revealed that European manufacturers are continuing to send weapons to Russia via Turkey, Georgia, Armenia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan. The investigation pointed out that Beretta, a European company, continues to work with Russia despite sanctions and has provided over 1000 weapons to Russian forces.
Syrian Instability:
Syrian rebel groups are releasing images and videos of Russian equipment and vehicles on the road in Syria, yet claim they are under orders not to engage the Russian forces.
There are continued reports of infighting and instability within Syria, despite the Assad regime being ousted.
Russian forces are reportedly withdrawing from Syria, but some Russian naval assets remain in the area.
OSCE Tensions: A special representative of the OSCE for Ukraine is preparing Kyiv for future membership in the EU and NATO, circumventing Russia. Russia is responding with accusations of attempting to further divide Europe.
Russian Border Operations:
A new recruitment campaign has been launched by the Russian FSB in Crimea, looking for candidates aged 18 to 40.
Russian forces are attempting to increase counter-terrorism activities in the border regions.
Russian Domestic Issues:
A Russian state media outlet reported that they have received over 500,000 requests for the upcoming direct-line call with Putin. The most common issues raised are related to transportation, housing, medical, and social payments.
A survey in Moscow found that 1 in 6 women are returning their dresses after work events. Shop owners have begun to tag dresses with large tags that warn about damage caused by returns.
Updated Assessment of Key Areas:
Eastern Ukraine: Russian forces continue to make significant advances, especially near Pokrovsk, Kurakhove, and Velyka Novoselka, with intense fighting reported across the Donbas region. Ukrainian forces are struggling to hold defensive positions and are losing ground, as evidenced by the number of settlements reporting fighting.
Russian Operations in Kursk and Sumy Oblasts: Russian forces are continuing to advance in these regions, with a focus on gaining territorial control. Ukrainian forces are using drone attacks to disrupt operations in the Kursk region, but this has not slowed the Russian advances. Russian forces are also reported to be advancing in Sumy Oblast.
Drone Warfare: Drones are increasingly being used by both sides, including FPV drones, for reconnaissance, surveillance, and targeted attacks. The use of thermal imaging is increasingly important.
Information Warfare: Both sides are actively engaging in information warfare, attempting to undermine the morale of their opponents, as well as influence the public opinion and strategic decisions through propaganda, targeted news stories, memes, and videos.
Internal Security: Both Ukraine and Russia are actively working to prevent and deter acts of sabotage and other internal threats. Russia is increasing its focus on counter-terrorism operations in border regions.
Economic Instability: Information has been revealed suggesting the Russian economy is struggling. Russian forces are having difficulty finding personnel, and an increasing number of people are using the black market and unofficial means to try and generate income, showing a lack of stability within the Russian economy.
Humanitarian Crisis: Civilian casualties continue to rise, particularly in areas heavily targeted by missiles and artillery.
Updated Strategic Recommendations for Commanders:
Defend Key Locations: The key locations of Pokrovsk and Kurakhove are now areas with high degrees of Russian military activity and require strengthened defenses and additional fortifications to limit or slow down Russian advances. Russian advances into Sumy Oblast are a cause for concern and require greater analysis.
Address Troop Morale: A comprehensive strategy needs to be developed to counter Russian psychological operations designed to lower troop morale. Investigate the validity of claims of troops being told to commit suicide if they are captured, as well as any other claims of internal corruption or issues of lack of trust and address these issues to improve the morale of all troops.
Prioritize Air Defense and Counter-Drone Measures: The threat from drones, both for reconnaissance and attacks, requires additional effort and resources. New methods of defense and new counter-drone technology are needed to meet this threat.
Strengthen Supply Lines: Given the targeted attacks on vehicles, evaluate logistical routes and identify alternate paths to prevent disruptions.
Target Financial Networks: Actively work to identify and target Russian financial networks used to support military operations. Actively monitor the movement of funds to potentially reveal locations of Russian activity.
Enhance Drone Capabilities: The development and deployment of advanced drone technology is a critical need for both surveillance and targeted attacks. Specifically focus on drone countermeasures.
Counter Russian Propaganda: Develop and implement an effective counter-information strategy to combat Russian narratives in both Ukraine and international media.
Focus on Internal Stability: Continue active counterintelligence and law enforcement operations to disrupt and uncover any internal threats to the stability and security of Ukraine. Work to undermine political networks working to destabilize the country.
Civilian Protection: Prioritize civilian protection and assist with emergency planning and services, especially for internally displaced peoples. Maintain effective communications and medical support.
Address Sanctions Circumvention: Continue to work with international partners to limit Russia’s ability to circumvent international sanctions and purchase needed materials.
Address the Syrian Instability: Closely monitor developments in Syria and understand the potential for the conflict there to expand into other countries or territories.
Investigate claims of election interference: Further investigate claims by the Russian government that it has not interfered with the election in Romania. The Russian government may try to use such interference as justification for their activities within Ukraine.
Monitor Russian mobilization efforts: Closely monitor and analyze Russian mobilization efforts and recruitment campaigns. Attempt to identify vulnerabilities and exploit any weakness in these recruitment systems.
Conclusion:
The operational situation continues to be unstable. Russian forces are advancing in eastern Ukraine, particularly near Pokrovsk and Kurakhove, and are also increasing attacks in other regions including Kursk and Sumy. The heavy use of drones for reconnaissance and strikes indicates that both sides are using them as a key component of the battlefield. Ukraine is facing serious challenges, including logistical issues, decreasing morale, and internal threats. Civilian casualties are continuing, which is creating a humanitarian crisis. The claims of widespread corruption and internal sabotage further emphasize this, and this is something that must be immediately addressed. Both sides are continuing to engage in active information campaigns, which are designed to undermine their opponents while building support among their own populations. The possibility of reduced financial support from western countries, as well as the potential for the Syrian conflict to expand represent new challenges that must be addressed to continue the war effort.
