Situation Report

Updated Operational Situation Overview – December 12, 2024 (As of 04:15 UTC)

Key Developments:

• Increased Civilian Casualties in Zaporizhzhia: The death toll from the Russian strike on December 10th in Zaporizhzhia has risen to 10, with 22 injured and one person still under the rubble.
• Sevastopol Drone Attack: Ukrainian forces attempted a drone attack on Sevastopol, with 5 drones shot down by air defenses and 2 neutralized by electronic warfare.
• Grozny Drone Attack: A drone attack occurred at 00:55 in Grozny, targeting a police special forces barracks. Four guards sustained minor injuries. The drone was shot down. Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov claims Ukraine is responsible, vowing retaliation.
• Taganrog Missile Attack: Russia claims that Ukraine launched six ATACMS ballistic missiles at Taganrog overnight. Russia has stated that they will respond.
• Kursk Oblast Advances: Russian forces are advancing in the north of the Sudzha district, particularly near Novoivanovka and the forests near Mala Loknya. Ukrainian forces are reportedly focusing on defense and are no longer mounting counterattacks. Russian forces are also advancing in forests west of Plekhovo. 502 Ukrainian soldiers are now reported as prisoners of war.
• Pokrovsk Direction Advances: Russian forces are expanding their control south of Pokrovsk, with fighting on the outskirts of Vozrozhdeniye (Novo Truda), Shevchenko, and near Novotroitskoye.
• Kurakhovo/Velyka Novoselka Advances: Russian forces are advancing on the right bank of the Sukhi Yaly River, south of Kurakhovo, with battles near Veselyi Gai and Konstantynopol. Intense fighting continues northeast of Velyka Novoselka, where Ukrainian forces are counterattacking near Novyi Komar and Rozdolne, although Ukrainian forces are being pushed back near Oktyabr (Blahodatne), and around Ravnopole.
• Ukrainian Troop Morale: A former SBU officer, Vasily Prozorov, interviewed by TASS, claims that the Ukrainian population no longer believes in the possibility of victory due to widespread mobilization. This is likely Russian propaganda, but may reflect some reality.
• Ukrainian Defectors: The former SBU officer also claims that many Ukrainian soldiers have defected and are fighting for Russia.
• Ukrainian Sabotage: The former SBU officer also stated that Ukrainian intelligence agencies are increasingly using Russian citizens for acts of sabotage.
• Ukraine Youth Seeking to Flee: A Ukrainian soldier was filmed claiming that the youth of the country know that fleeing the country is the only way to save their lives.
• Drone Warfare: Russian drone operators from the 37th Guards Motor Rifle Brigade are targeting Ukrainian forces near Velyka Novoselka. Russian units are using FPV drones and thermal optics.
• Ukrainian Vehicle Destruction: A video was released depicting the destruction of a Ukrainian Kozak armored vehicle in the Siversk region.
• Ukrainian Equipment Display: A display of captured Ukrainian vehicles from the Donetsk and Avdiivka directions was created in a public square, including M2 Bradley, M113A4, Cougar MRAP, HMMWV Humvee, Marder, CV90, BMP-1U, "Varta", "Kozak-2M1", BTR-3E1, BTR-4E, T-64BV "Bulat", M113G3DK, FV 103 Spartan, VAB, Kirpi, Roshel, and a THeMIS Transport UAV.
• Ukrainian Morale and Anniversary: The 46th Separate Airmobile Brigade is congratulating the 95th Separate Airborne Assault Polissia Brigade on its anniversary, which may act to boost morale.

Updated Assessment of Key Areas:

• Eastern Ukraine: Russian forces continue to make advances, particularly near Pokrovsk, Kurakhove, and Velyka Novoselka. Ukrainian forces are facing challenges including continued losses, demoralization, and corruption.
• Russian Operations in Kursk and Sumy Oblasts: Russian forces are continuing to advance in these regions, with a focus on gaining territorial control. Ukrainian forces are using drone attacks to disrupt operations in the Kursk, Bryansk, and Taganrog regions, but this has not slowed the Russian advances.
• Drone Warfare: Drones continue to be used heavily by both sides for reconnaissance, surveillance, and targeted attacks. The effective use of thermal imaging is a key development.
• Information Warfare: Russian media is continuing to highlight Ukrainian casualties, internal corruption, and the perceived lack of faith in victory to further demoralize Ukrainian forces. The claim that Ukrainian citizens are being used as terrorists by the Ukrainian government is an attempt to further isolate the country on the international stage.
• Internal Security: Both Ukraine and Russia are actively working to prevent and deter acts of sabotage. Russia is increasing its focus on counter-terrorism operations.
• Humanitarian Crisis: Civilian casualties continue to rise, particularly in Zaporizhzhia. The ongoing attacks are forcing Ukraine to dedicate resources to search and rescue.

Updated Strategic Recommendations for Commanders:

1. Prioritize Air Defense: The ongoing drone and missile threats require an immediate strengthening of air defense systems. The targeting of civilian and military infrastructure requires additional protection measures.

2. Address Troop Morale: The ongoing demoralization of Ukrainian forces needs immediate attention. Strengthen leadership, investigate corruption, and enhance support for soldiers and veterans. Highlight unit morale boosting actions, such as the anniversary celebration by the 46th brigade.

3. Defend Critical Supply Routes: Secure and defend supply routes, as logistical assets continue to be targeted.

4. Enhance Drone Capabilities: Enhance Ukrainian drone capabilities for both surveillance and counter-drone operations, particularly within the area of FPV drones and thermal optics.

5. Counter Russian Propaganda: Implement a comprehensive counter-information strategy to combat the negative impacts of Russian propaganda.

6. Urban Warfare Preparedness: Given the high likelihood of urban combat, troops must be trained and equipped for this kind of fighting.

7. Address Internal Security Threats: The reports of corruption and sabotage within Ukraine necessitate an increased focus on counter-intelligence and internal security.

8. Civilian Protection: Prioritize civilian protection, establish evacuation protocols, and work with humanitarian organizations.

9. Address Potential Escalation: The use of ATACMS missiles by Ukraine, and their reported impact on Taganrog may trigger an increase in military activity.

10. Prepare for Continued Russian Advances: The reports indicate that Russia is advancing across multiple axes of attack. These advances should be anticipated and defended.

11. Investigate Allegations: Investigate the former SBU officer's claims, particularly about defector and sabotage activity.

12. Monitor Russian Troop Movements: The reports of advances along multiple axes of attack requires a careful assessment of Russian force distribution.

13. Counter Sanctions Circumvention: Investigate the methods being used by the Russian military to circumvent sanctions and purchase US-made components.

Conclusion:

The operational situation remains highly unstable and continues to evolve. Russian forces are pressing their offensive in eastern Ukraine, particularly near Pokrovsk, Kurakhove, and Velyka Novoselka. Ukrainian forces are facing serious challenges, including high casualties, logistical issues, decreasing morale, and internal sabotage. The increase in civilian casualties in Zaporizhzhia is a significant concern. Russian forces continue to demonstrate advancements in drone technology. Russian propaganda is attempting to undermine the morale of the Ukrainian people and its forces. There are increasing allegations of sabotage on the Russian side, and claims that Ukrainian citizens are being used by the Ukrainian government for terrorist activities.

The military landscape is dangerous and dynamic, with a clear need to adapt to these evolving challenges. Continuous assessment and strategic adjustments will be essential for commanders to make effective decisions.