Situation Report

Updated Operational Situation Overview – December 12, 2024 (As of 01:14 UTC)

Key Developments (Incorporating New Information):

• Ukraine Morale: A former SBU officer, Vasily Prozorov, interviewed by the Russian news agency TASS, claimed that the Ukrainian population no longer believes in the possibility of victory due to widespread mobilization. This is likely Russian propaganda aimed at demoralizing Ukrainian forces and undermining international support, but the reports of forced enlistments and ongoing losses may cause similar opinions.
• Grozny Drone Attack: A drone attack occurred at 00:55 in Grozny targeting a police special forces barracks. Four guards sustained minor injuries. The drone was shot down, and fragments caused a small fire. Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov claims Ukraine is responsible, vowing retaliation. This could be a response to the increasing attacks inside of Russia, and indicates that attacks may occur across a broader geography.
• South Korea Impeachment: The leader of the ruling party in South Korea has again called for the impeachment of the president, who has indicated he is willing to undergo the impeachment procedure. This is a potential area of geopolitical instability that may require further monitoring, particularly as it impacts the supply chain, and potentially US involvement.
• Serebryansk Forest Engagement: Russian forces claim to have destroyed a Ukrainian fighter near Serebryansk Forest using drones, as indicated by video released on social media, featuring thermal and targeting overlays. This is a continuation of targeted Russian drone operations in contested areas and highlights their ongoing surveillance capabilities.
• South Korean Political Turmoil: The South Korean president has ordered a former defense minister to investigate the national election commission, and has stated that he is ready for the impeachment process. This suggests ongoing political instability in South Korea, which could have secondary impacts related to logistics and international relations.
• Khabarovsk Police Raids: Police in Khabarovsk Krai conducted raids to identify cases of fictitious registration, targeting both Russian citizens and foreigners. Over 1,450 people were checked, suggesting ongoing efforts to control population movements and maintain order within the region.
• Russian Airborne Recruiting: A pro-Russian channel is asking for votes for their social media channel, claiming to be providing up-to-date information. This is a method of propaganda distribution.
• Russian Naval Drones: Russian sources have suggested that "Lancet" drones are being developed as an anti-ship weapon and that they have been used to attack riverine targets, such as high-speed boats and patrol ships.
• Russian Robot Container: A photo shared by Russian forces shows a robotic device being demonstrated, contained in cylindrical transport containers, suggesting new developments in reconnaissance and surveillance technology. The containers are portable and designed to hide the robot.
• Riverine Attack: A video shows the destruction of a high-speed boat using a drone with targeting overlays, highlighting Russian precision targeting capabilities and their effectiveness in riverine operations.
• Cargo Vessel Monitoring: A video has been released showing surveillance of a cargo vessel, highlighting the focus on logistics and supply chains.
• Ukrainian Vehicle Display: A display of captured Ukrainian vehicles from the Donetsk and Avdiivka directions was created in a public square, including M2 Bradley, M113A4, Cougar MRAP, HMMWV Humvee, Marder, CV90, BMP-1U, "Varta", "Kozak-2M1", BTR-3E1, BTR-4E, T-64BV "Bulat", M113G3DK, FV 103 Spartan, VAB, Kirpi, Roshel, and a THeMIS Transport UAV. This is likely an attempt to boost morale and display Russian successes.
• Road Rage Incident: A video shows what appears to be a road rage incident in Khabarovsk, highlighting potential security and public relations concerns in civilian areas.

Updated Assessment of Key Areas:

• Eastern Ukraine: The situation remains dire, with Russian forces continuing to advance in multiple locations, particularly near Pokrovsk, Kurakhove, and Toretsk. The capture of Shevchenko, Novotroitskoye and Veselyi Hai, and the Tsentralnaya mine further consolidates Russian gains. Reports of continued heavy fighting, high casualties, and demoralization within Ukrainian forces, along with internal corruption, signal a potentially critical weakness in the Ukrainian defense.
• Russian Operations in Kursk and Sumy Oblasts: Russian advances into Sumy Oblast near Aleksandria, and the liberation of Daryino and Plyukhovo in Kursk Oblast indicate that they are continuing to expand their area of operations. Ukrainian drone attacks in Kursk, Bryansk, and Taganrog are causing disruption, but not slowing Russian advances.
• Drone Warfare: Both Russian and Ukrainian forces are using drones heavily for surveillance, reconnaissance, and targeted strikes, highlighting the growing importance of drone technology. Russian forces are using FPV drones extensively.
• Logistics and Supply Chains: Monitoring and disruption of supply lines are key factors in the current conflict. Both Ukrainian and Russian forces are targeting logistical assets and are using surveillance to track the movement of supplies.
• Russian Information Operations: Russian media is actively engaging in information warfare by highlighting Ukrainian casualties, internal corruption, and their perceived lack of faith in victory. They are also actively promoting their own forces, security services, and technology.

Updated Strategic Recommendations for Commanders:

1. Prioritize Air Defense: The ongoing and increasing threat of Russian missile and drone strikes requires the immediate reinforcement of air defense systems. The targeting of civilian infrastructure and military facilities necessitates better protection measures.

2. Address Troop Morale: The demoralization of Ukrainian forces is a significant issue that needs to be addressed. It is necessary to strengthen leadership, investigate corruption, and enhance support for soldiers and veterans.

3. Defend Critical Supply Routes: The ongoing targeting of logistics and supply lines is impacting Ukrainian operations. It is crucial to secure and defend supply routes.

4. Enhance Drone Capabilities: The effective use of drones by the Russian military signals a need to enhance Ukrainian drone capabilities in both surveillance and counter-drone operations, especially within the area of FPV drones.

5. Counter Russian Propaganda: It is important to implement a comprehensive counter-information strategy to combat the negative impacts of Russian propaganda.

6. Urban Warfare Preparedness: Given the high likelihood of urban combat, it is imperative that troops are trained and equipped for this kind of fighting.

7. Address Internal Security Threats: The reports of corruption and sabotage within Ukraine necessitate an increased focus on counter-intelligence and internal security measures.

8. Civilian Protection: Prioritize civilian protection, establish evacuation protocols, and collaborate with humanitarian organizations.

9. Explore Counter-Naval Technology: The development of Russian "Lancet" drones into anti-ship weapons suggests a need to develop countermeasures to these types of weapons.

10. Monitor Geopolitical Stability: The political instability in South Korea requires close monitoring, given the potential impact it has on international relations and supply chains.

Conclusion:

The operational situation remains highly unstable and continues to evolve. The Russian military is pressing its offensive in eastern Ukraine, particularly near Pokrovsk, Kurakhove, and Toretsk. Ukrainian forces are facing major challenges, including high casualties, logistical problems, and decreasing morale. The targeting of key infrastructure is of grave concern, as well as the ongoing corruption within the Ukrainian military. Russian forces continue to demonstrate advancements in drone technology and capabilities. Russian propaganda is attempting to undermine the morale of the Ukrainian people and its forces. The broader geopolitical landscape, particularly recent developments in South Korea, require monitoring.

The military landscape is dynamic and dangerous, with a clear need to adapt to these evolving challenges. Continuous assessment and strategic adjustments will be essential for commanders to make effective decisions.