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Historical intelligence

Situation Report

Archived operational intelligence briefing retained for historical analysis.

Intelligence brief / archived issue

Situation Update (UTC)

Key reported developments

  • Footage of damage at Prydniprovska TPP, Kamianske, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (16:40:44 UTC): Colonelcassad (Russian pro-war channel) published video filmed from a moving vehicle crossing a bridge, showing dark smoke plumes from at least two chimney stacks and structural damage to the boiler house (exposed steel framework, missing cladding) at a facility with 8–10 tall chimneys consistent with the Prydniprovska Thermal Power Plant in Kamianske. The original filmer appears Ukrainian or Ukraine-aligned (dashboard displays a Ukrainian trident emblem); the clip was republished by VOENACHER with a Russian caption asserting "impacts." No timestamp, geotag, weapon type, or date of filming is provided. (source: Colonelcassad, 16:40:44/16:40:45; confidence MEDIUM for depicted physical damage; LOW for strike attribution, timing, and weapon type)

  • UAV strike on production-warehouse enterprise in Buchanskyi district, Kyiv Oblast — two injured (17:09:59 UTC): Оперативний ЗСУ reports, citing the oblast administration, that a drone attack on a production-warehouse facility in Buchanskyi district injured two people. The blast wave damaged an adjacent warehouse building, two private houses, and two cars. (source: Оперативний ЗСУ, 17:09:59; confidence MEDIUM-HIGH for the official OVA-sourced report; LOW for independently verified totals)

  • Zhytomyr enters strict electricity economy mode — multiple sources confirm (17:04:58–17:05:48 UTC): Операция Z (17:04:58) and ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (17:05:48) independently relay that Zhytomyr city suspended all electric transport (trams, trolleybuses), switched street lighting to economy mode, asked businesses to remove decorative and advertising illumination, and warned of possible traffic-signal outages. This supplements the prior baseline's RBC-Ukraine report (16:20:37) of the same measures. (sources: Операция Z, 17:04:58; ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, 17:05:48; confidence MEDIUM-HIGH for the municipal measures as relayed by multiple outlets)

  • MoD Russia claims Varyag brigade FPV strike in Orekhov direction — HMMWV visible, broader claims unsupported (17:06:53 UTC): MoD Russia published FPV drone footage watermarked "ВАРЯГ" showing a vehicle labeled "HMMWV" destroyed with white smoke/debris, plus a second unclear engagement. The caption additionally claims destruction of unmanned ground vehicles, "Baba Yaga" heavy hexacopters, C2/communications elements, dugouts, hangars, and shelters — none of which are visible in the provided frames. No geolocation confirms the "Orekhov direction" attribution. (source: MoD Russia, 17:06:53/17:06:54; confidence MEDIUM for the depicted HMMWV strike; LOW for the broader equipment list and location)

  • Russian-affiliated channel openly solicits drone-filming from Ukrainian civilians (17:00:05 UTC): АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА published a recruitment post targeting residents of Ukraine to film Russian Geran (Shahed-type) drones and submit footage to @Content_bpla_bot for up to $5,000, with an advance of $1,000. The post promises anonymity and uses espionage-recruitment language. Accompanying imagery appears AI-generated. (source: АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА, 17:00:05/17:00:06; confidence MEDIUM-HIGH for the recruitment campaign's existence as published; LOW for operational uptake)

  • IRINN (Iranian state TV) aired map graphic showing missile trajectories toward Kyiv, Lviv, Odesa, Rzeszów (17:03:01 UTC): The Rybar MENA channel relayed studio stills from an IRINN broadcast ("Be Vaght-e Iran") showing a map with labeled targets and cartoonish nuclear-explosion icons over multiple European capitals. Rybar characterizes the broadcast as public escalation signaling rather than an operational plan, noting Iran's finite medium-range arsenal is better suited to Gulf targets. The channel itself hedges the underlying news as "probable fake." (source: Рыбарь, 17:03:01/17:03:02; confidence MEDIUM-HIGH for the broadcast having occurred; LOW for any Iranian strike intent or capability toward Ukraine)

  • Ukrainian Air Force — eight new jet-UAV warnings and one ballistic cancellation (16:42–17:09 UTC): Alerts cover Zaporizhzhia from south (16:42:09), Chernihiv past Snovsk (16:59:51), Sumy toward Ulianivka (17:02:37), Chernihiv from Bryansk (17:03:21), Dnipro city (17:04:13), Chernihiv toward Kozielec (17:05:56), Sumy toward Nedryhailiv/Romny (17:07:54), and Kharkiv toward Krasnopavlivka (17:09:52). A ballistic-weapon threat was cancelled at 16:50:12. No confirmed interceptions or impacts established. (source: Повітряні Сили ЗС України, 16:42:09–17:09:52; confidence HIGH for alert issuance)

  • 347th Motorized Rifle Regiment reportedly depleted in Kupiansk direction (17:11:00 UTC): The Russian military-critical Telegram channel Группировка войск «Запад» reports that the 347th MRR, operating near Tabayevka–Hlushkivka (Kharkiv Oblast), has battalions "depleted by more than half," with no confirmed withdrawal despite rumors, and repeated complaints about inadequate camouflage ignored by command. The channel uses loaded language ("штабных мясников"). No independent verification of the unit's current strength or front-line position is supplied. (source: Группировка войск «Запад», 17:11:00; confidence MEDIUM for the complaint pattern as a primary-source post; LOW for specific unit strength and geographic context)

Reported situation by area

Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, Ukraine: New video evidence (16:40:44) shows smoke and structural damage at the Prydniprovska TPP in Kamianske, republished by a Russian channel from what appears to be Ukrainian-filmed source material. The prior baseline's OVA report (16:30:01) of 30+ attacks across six districts and 7 injured remains the primary official account. Two new Air Force jet-UAV warnings toward Dnipro (17:04:13) supplement the prior batch's three alerts. No confirmed impact from the new alerts. (sources: Colonelcassad, 16:40:44/16:40:45; Повітряні Сили ЗС України, 17:04:13; Олександр Ганжа / Дніпропетровська ОДА, 16:30:01 [prior]; confidence MEDIUM for TPP footage; MEDIUM-HIGH for OVA report [prior]; HIGH for alert issuance)

Chernihiv Oblast, Ukraine: Three new Air Force jet-UAV warnings: past Snovsk toward Chernihiv (16:59:51); from Bryansk Oblast toward northern Chernihiv (17:03:21); toward Kozielec (17:05:56). The prior baseline reported three alerts (16:18:56, 16:22:53, 16:26:22). No confirmed impact. (source: Повітряні Сили ЗС України, 16:59:51/17:03:21/17:05:56; confidence HIGH for alert issuance)

Sumy Oblast, Ukraine: Two new Air Force jet-UAV warnings: toward Ulianivka (17:02:37) and toward Nedryhailiv/Romny (17:07:54). The prior baseline reported one alert toward Nedryhailiv/Romny (16:32:53). No confirmed impact. (source: Повітряні Сили ЗС України, 17:02:37/17:07:54; confidence HIGH for alert issuance)

Kharkiv Oblast, Ukraine: New Air Force jet-UAV warning: toward Krasnopavlivka (17:09:52). The prior baseline reported a Vovchansk-sector internal Russian order (16:35:26). The new Группировка войск «Запад» post (17:11:00) reports 347th MRR depletion near Tabayevka–Hlushkivka. No confirmed impact from the UAV alert. (sources: Повітряні Сили ЗС України, 17:09:52; Группировка войск «Запад», 17:11:00; confidence HIGH for alert; LOW for unit-strength claims)

Kyiv Oblast, Ukraine: New official report: UAV strike on a production-warehouse enterprise in Buchanskyi district, two injured, damage to adjacent warehouse, two private houses, two cars (17:09:59). The prior baseline reported two Air Force alerts (16:17:08, 16:24:10) and emergency power shutdowns. The Air Force spokesperson (16:41:04) denied reports of a fatal fight between Ukrainian pilots in Trenčín, Slovakia. (sources: Оперативний ЗСУ, 17:09:59; РБК-Україна, 16:41:04/16:41:05; confidence MEDIUM-HIGH for the Buchanskyi OVA report; MEDIUM for the Air Force denial)

Zhytomyr Oblast, Ukraine: Multiple sources (Операция Z 17:04:58; ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS 17:05:48) confirm the city's strict electricity economy mode: all electric transport suspended, street lighting dimmed, businesses asked to remove decorative illumination, traffic-signal outages possible. This corroborates and expands the prior baseline's RBC-Ukraine report (16:20:37). (sources: Операция Z, 17:04:58; ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, 17:05:48; РБК-Україна, 16:20:37 [prior]; confidence MEDIUM-HIGH for the municipal measures)

Zaporizhzhia Oblast, Ukraine: New Air Force jet-UAV warning: UAV over Zaporizhzhia from the south (16:42:09). MoD Russia (17:06:53) claims Varyag brigade FPV strikes in the "Orekhov direction" including an HMMWV. The prior baseline reported one UAV alert (16:23:31). No Ukrainian confirmation of the MoD strike claims. (sources: Повітряні Сили ЗС України, 16:42:09; MoD Russia, 17:06:53/17:06:54; confidence HIGH for alert; MEDIUM for depicted HMMWV strike; LOW for broader claims and location)

Kherson Oblast, Ukraine (Oleshky/Aleshky): The prior baseline's White House meeting reporting is supplemented by Операция Z / RVvoenkor (16:44:59/16:45:00), which relays Izvestia footage of Dmitriev speaking at a White House lectern beside Melania Trump. The Telegram caption's claim that Putin "personally ordered" a ceasefire is an editorial addition not audible in the video subtitles. (source: Операция Z, 16:44:59/16:45:00; confidence MEDIUM for the event's occurrence; LOW for the "ceasefire" characterization)

Reported strikes and air-defense activity

  • Ukrainian Air Force — eight new jet-UAV warnings and one ballistic cancellation (16:42–17:09 UTC): Zaporizhzhia from south (16:42:09); Chernihiv past Snovsk (16:59:51); Sumy toward Ulianivka (17:02:37); Chernihiv from Bryansk (17:03:21); Dnipro city (17:04:13); Chernihiv toward Kozielec (17:05:56); Sumy toward Nedryhailiv/Romny (17:07:54); Kharkiv toward Krasnopavlivka (17:09:52). Ballistic threat cancelled (16:50:12). All are warnings; no confirmed interception or impact established. (source: Повітряні Сили ЗС України, 16:42:09–17:09:52; confidence HIGH for issuance)

  • Prydniprovska TPP, Kamianske — video showing smoke and structural damage (16:40:44 UTC): Dark smoke from at least two chimney stacks; exposed steel framework and missing cladding on the boiler house. Filmed from a bridge; republished by VOENACHER. No timestamp, weapon identification, or Ukrainian confirmation. (source: Colonelcassad, 16:40:44/16:40:45; confidence MEDIUM for depicted damage; LOW for strike attribution)

  • MoD Russia Varyag brigade FPV strike — Orekhov direction (17:06:53 UTC): Video shows HMMWV destruction and one additional unclear engagement. Caption claims broader destruction (UGVs, Baba Yaga hexacopters, C2 elements, dugouts, hangars) not visible in frames. No geolocation. (source: MoD Russia, 17:06:53/17:06:54; confidence MEDIUM for HMMWV strike; LOW for broader claims)

  • Buchanskyi district, Kyiv Oblast — UAV strike on production-warehouse facility (17:09:59 UTC): Two injured; blast wave damaged adjacent warehouse, two private houses, two cars. Official OVA-sourced report. (source: Оперативний ЗСУ, 17:09:59; confidence MEDIUM-HIGH for the official report)

  • No independently confirmed air-defense engagement or verified interception outcome is established in this batch.

Reported Russian activity

  • MoD Russia Varyag brigade FPV strike claim (17:06:53 UTC): Official distribution of drone-strike footage with an inflated equipment list. (source: MoD Russia, 17:06:53/17:06:54; confidence LOW for broader claims)

  • Colonelcassad / VOENACHER Prydniprovska TPP footage (16:40:44 UTC): Russian pro-war channel republished Ukrainian-filmed infrastructure damage with a strike-success caption. (source: Colonelcassad, 16:40:44/16:40:45; confidence MEDIUM for depicted damage; LOW for attribution)

  • Операция Z / RVvoenkor Oleshky ceasefire framing (16:44:59 UTC): Pro-Russian channel amplifies the White House meeting with an editorial "Putin personally ordered" headline not supported by the video's audible content. (source: Операция Z, 16:44:59/16:45:00; confidence MEDIUM for the event; LOW for the ceasefire characterization)

  • АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА drone-filming recruitment (17:00:05 UTC): Open solicitation of Ukrainian civilians to film Geran drones for payment, using espionage-recruitment language and an anonymity guarantee. (source: АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА, 17:00:05/17:00:06; confidence MEDIUM-HIGH for the campaign's existence)

  • RT / Старше Эдды Jet-1 fuel cost narrative (16:56:52 UTC): Claims Ukrainian Jet-1 procurement costs rose 1.6x in 2026, attributing the increase partly to Russian strikes on fuel facilities via an unnamed "expert consulting the Ministry of Defense." Raw figures sourced from Prozorro; causal attribution is opinion. (source: Старше Эдды, 16:56:52/16:56:53; confidence MEDIUM for procurement data; LOW for causal attribution)

  • Дневник Десантника Zelensky quote (16:47:01 UTC): Pro-Russian channel reposts Zelensky's statement about hoping for expanded US aid from Democrats, using derogatory framing ("главарь киевского режима"). (source: Дневник Десантника🇷🇺, 16:47:01/16:47:02; confidence MEDIUM for the quote's content; LOW for editorial framing)

  • Группировка войск «Запад» — internal Russian command criticism (17:11:00 UTC): Reports 347th MRR depletion near Tabayevka–Hlushkivka, inadequate camouflage, and no withdrawal despite rumors. (source: Группировка войск «Запад», 17:11:00; confidence MEDIUM for the complaint pattern; LOW for unit strength)

  • Colonelcassad ББПС «Karat» propaganda video (17:01:01 UTC): Recruitment/morale video for a Russian drone logistics unit. Map explicitly labeled "artistic visualization." LNR/DNR shown as separate entities. (source: Colonelcassad, 17:01:01/17:01:02; confidence LOW for operational content)

  • ТАСС — Pezeshkian delivers Khamenei's message to Putin (17:01:01 UTC): Content of the message not disclosed. (source: ТАСС, 17:01:01; confidence MEDIUM for the statement as relayed)

Reported Ukrainian activity

  • Air Force — eight new alerts and one ballistic cancellation (16:42–17:09 UTC): Coverage extends to Zaporizhzhia, Chernihiv (×3), Sumy (×2), Dnipro, and Kharkiv Oblast. (source: Повітряні Сили ЗС України, 16:42:09–17:09:52; confidence HIGH for issuance)

  • Air Force spokesperson denies Slovakia pilot-fight reports (16:41:04 UTC): Yuriy Ignat told RBC-Ukraine that no pilots or aviation personnel are training in Slovakia, calling the reports "fake." The underlying Slovak media reports are not named or linked. (source: РБК-Україна, 16:41:04/16:41:05; confidence MEDIUM for the denial as an official statement; LOW for the underlying incident's existence)

  • 1st Separate Assault Battalion "Da Vinci" receives donated 20 kW inverter generator (16:51:01 UTC): Butusov Plus published footage of four soldiers presenting the generator and maintenance supplies in an autumn forest setting. Routine donation-acknowledgment video. (source: БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС, 16:51:01/16:51:02; confidence HIGH for the footage)

  • Оперативний ЗСУ — Buchanskyi district strike report (17:09:59 UTC): Relays OVA confirmation of two injured, damage to warehouse, houses, and cars. (source: Оперативний ЗСУ, 17:09:59; confidence MEDIUM-HIGH)

  • Оперативний ЗСУ — NASDAQ drop repost (16:55:01 UTC): Reposts a >5% NASDAQ decline attributed to Democratic data-center regulation plans. Analysis flags the screenshot's absolute index level as potentially implausible and the source app as Russian-language. (source: Оперативний ЗСУ, 16:55:01/16:55:02; confidence LOW for the financial data's integrity)

  • WarArchive — fundraising announcement (17:07:15 UTC): Channel announces an upcoming small fundraiser. No operational content. (source: WarArchive, 17:07:15; confidence N/A — non-operational)

Civilian and infrastructure impact

  • Buchanskyi district, Kyiv Oblast — two injured, property damage (17:09:59 UTC): Per the OVA-sourced report relayed by Оперативний ЗСУ, a UAV strike on a production-warehouse enterprise injured two people. The blast wave damaged an adjacent warehouse building, two private houses, and two cars. (source: Оперативний ЗСУ, 17:09:59; confidence MEDIUM-HIGH for the official report)

  • Prydniprovska TPP, Kamianske, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast — structural damage and smoke (16:40:44 UTC): Video shows dark smoke from at least two chimney stacks and damage to the boiler house (exposed steel framework, missing cladding panels). No casualty report accompanies the footage. (source: Colonelcassad, 16:40:44/16:40:45; confidence MEDIUM for depicted damage; LOW for date and cause)

  • Zhytomyr — citywide electricity economy mode (17:04:58/17:05:48 UTC): All electric transport suspended, street lighting dimmed, businesses asked to remove decorative/advertising illumination, traffic-signal outages warned. No casualty report. (sources: Операция Z, 17:04:58; ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, 17:05:48; confidence MEDIUM-HIGH for the measures)

  • Dnipropetrovsk Oblast — 7 injured including a child (prior baseline, 16:30:01 UTC): Previously reported OVA figures: 30+ attacks across six districts; three women hospitalized in Nikopol area; three others treated outpatient; child injured in Synelnykove district. Damage to residential, commercial, educational, and utility infrastructure. (source: Олександр Ганжа / Дніпропетровська ОДА, 16:30:01 [prior]; confidence MEDIUM-HIGH for the official report)

  • No new civilian casualty reports beyond the Buchanskyi and Dnipropetrovsk figures are supplied in this batch.

Information environment and disputed claims

  • Prydniprovska TPP footage — source laundering: The video was originally filmed by a Ukrainian or Ukraine-aligned individual (tryzub emblem visible) but was republished by VOENACHER/Colonelcassad with a Russian-language caption asserting "impacts." The original context is stripped; the caption's claim of successful hits is editorial, not shown in the footage. The analysis notes green foliage suggesting a late spring/summer filming date, which would be inconsistent with a November 2026 event — this temporal discrepancy is unexplained. (source: Colonelcassad, 16:40:44/16:40:45; confidence MEDIUM for the footage's existence; LOW for November 2026 timing)

  • Oleshky "ceasefire" framing: RVvoenkor's caption ("Putin personally ordered the ceasefire") is an editorial addition not audible in the Izvestia video subtitles, which show Dmitriev thanking Melania Trump. The prior baseline's ТАСС relay (16:18:25) contained the same claim. No ceasefire document, verification mechanism, or Ukrainian confirmation is supplied. (source: Операция Z, 16:44:59/16:45:00; confidence LOW for the "ceasefire" characterization)

  • IRINN escalation map: The Rybar channel relays the broadcast while explicitly hedging it as "probable fake" and arguing it has "little practical military sense." The graphic includes nuclear-explosion icons over multiple NATO capitals beyond Ukraine, indicating rhetorical deterrence theater rather than a precise target list. (source: Рыбарь, 17:03:01/17:03:02; confidence MEDIUM-HIGH for the broadcast occurring; LOW for any operational intent)

  • RT Jet-1 fuel narrative: Raw procurement data is sourced from Prozorro (public registry) and is independently verifiable. However, the causal attribution to Russian strikes comes from an unnamed "expert consulting the Ministry of Defense." The headline narrows scope to "UAV fuel" while the data covers all Jet-1 procurement (including manned aviation). The text names Ukrnafta as supplier while the infographic lists foreign countries — an unreconciled contradiction. (source: Старше Эдды, 16:56:52/16:56:53; confidence MEDIUM for procurement data; LOW for causal narrative)

  • Slovakia pilot-fight denial: RBC-Ukraine amplifies an unverified Slovak media rumor under the guise of debunking. No specific Slovak outlet is named. The denial is categorical but does not independently confirm or refute the underlying incident. (source: РБК-Україна, 16:41:04/16:41:05; confidence MEDIUM for the denial as an official statement; LOW for the incident's existence)

  • NASDAQ drop repost: The screenshot's absolute NDX level (~26,900) appears inconsistent with known 2025 ranges, the financial app is Russian-language, and the Reuters/UBS attributions are unverified. Posting on a Ukrainian military channel raises provenance questions. (source: Оперативний ЗСУ, 16:55:01/16:55:02; confidence LOW for the financial data)

  • Drone-recruitment campaign: АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА's post uses espionage-recruitment language (anonymity guarantee, tiered payment) targeting Ukrainian civilians. The accompanying imagery is AI-generated. No verified real-world footage or confirmed bot activity is supplied. (source: АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА, 17:00:05/17:00:06; confidence MEDIUM-HIGH for the campaign's publication; LOW for operational uptake)

  • 347th MRR depletion report: The Группировка войск «Запад» channel uses loaded language and provides no verifiable unit-strength data. The complaint pattern is consistent with prior internal Russian military-critical reporting but is unverified. (source: Группировка войск «Запад», 17:11:00; confidence LOW for specifics)

Evidence limitations and unresolved questions

  • Prydniprovska TPP footage: No timestamp, geotag, or date metadata. The analysis notes green foliage inconsistent with November, raising the possibility the footage predates the claimed event. No Ukrenergo outage confirmation, satellite imagery, or Ukrainian official statement is supplied. The weapon type and exact damage extent are unverified.
  • MoD Russia Orekhov strike: Only the HMMWV kill is visible in the provided frames. The broader equipment list (UGVs, Baba Yaga hexacopters, C2 elements, dugouts, hangars) is unsupported. No geolocation confirms the "Orekhov direction." No Ukrainian acknowledgment or independent corroboration.
  • Buchanskyi district strike: The OVA-sourced report is relayed by Оперативний ЗСУ but no imagery, geolocation, or weapon identification is supplied. The two-injured count is not independently audited.
  • Zhytomyr electricity measures: Multiple outlets confirm the municipal actions, but the specific strike event causing the energy-system damage is not identified with imagery or timing. The causal link to "Russian strikes" is stated in captions, not shown.
  • IRINN broadcast: No original broadcast date/time or unedited clip is provided. The map graphic's provenance (official IRINN vs. creator-made insert) is unverified. No Iranian official statement accompanies the broadcast.
  • Drone-recruitment campaign: No evidence that the bot @Content_bpla_bot is active or has received submissions. The $5,000 payment claim is unverified. The parent channel's affiliation to a specific Russian military or intelligence unit is not stated.
  • 347th MRR strength: No independent verification of current unit composition, exact front-line position relative to Tabayevka–Hlushkivka, or whether a withdrawal is planned.
  • Slovakia pilot-fight: No primary Slovak source is named or linked. Trenčín police records are not referenced. The incident's existence remains unconfirmed in either direction.
  • Jet-1 fuel data: The Prozorro figures are publicly verifiable in principle, but the supplied post does not link specific tender IDs. The Ukrnafta-vs.-foreign-supplier contradiction is unreconciled. The 2026 data covers only January–early November, making the year-over-year comparison asymmetric.
  • Oleshky White House meeting: No official White House, Kremlin, or Ukrainian Presidential Office press release is supplied. The "ceasefire" characterization, participant list, and substantive outcomes remain unverified.
  • Air-raid alerts vs. impacts: Eight new warnings were issued across six oblasts in the 16:42–17:09 window. No confirmed interception, impact, or damage is established for any.
  • Weather (Open-Meteo, 17:00 UTC): Frontline areas 2.0–4.1 °C. Kharkiv/Vovchansk overcast (100% cloud, wind 3.6 m/s); Luhansk/Svatove overcast (100%, 4.5 m/s); Donetsk/Pokrovsk overcast (81%, 3.4 m/s); Zaporizhzhia/Orikhiv partly cloudy (72%, 2.7 m/s); Kherson overcast (88%, 1.8 m/s). No precipitation at observation time. Forecast: light rain possible at Kharkiv (18%) and Orikhiv (30%); winds up to 4.9 m/s. Numeric observations only; no tactical implications drawn.
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