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Historical intelligence

Situation Report

Archived operational intelligence briefing retained for historical analysis.

Intelligence brief / archived issue

Situation Update (UTC)

Key reported developments

  • Air Force alert expansion to western and central Ukraine (20:28–20:51 UTC, Повітряні Сили ЗС України; Оперативний ЗСУ, confidence HIGH for issuance; LOW for materialisation): New UAV tracks reported toward Chernivtsi (jet-powered, 20:28), Chemerivtsi/Khmelnytskyi (20:29), south of Boryspil toward Kyiv (20:30), Cherkasy from west (20:30), Zaporizhzhia from south (20:31), Pervomaisk/Lysa Hora/Mykolaiv Oblast (jet-powered, 20:32), Osokorky/Kyiv (20:36), Rivne from east (20:42), Kopychyntsi/Ternopil Oblast (20:43), Berезne/Rivne Oblast (20:44), jet-powered UAV north of Zhytomyr heading toward Rivne (20:44), jet-powered UAVs from Kirovohrad toward Zvenyhorodka/Cherkasy (20:46), main enemy UAV group from Sumy through Poltava and Cherkasy heading west/southwest (20:47), jet-powered UAVs toward Piatykhatky/Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (20:50). Оперативний ЗСУ posted an updated air-raid map screenshot at 20:51. No impacts confirmed as of report generation.

  • Sobyanin confirms 28 UAVs shot down over Moscow region in one hour; 10 on approach to capital (20:45 UTC, ТАСС, confidence MEDIUM for official statement; LOW for operational detail): Moscow Mayor Sobyanin reported 10 UAVs destroyed heading toward Moscow and 28 total in the preceding hour. This partially corroborates the earlier Военкор Котенок claim (20:04 UTC, prior baseline) of a drone attack on Moscow, though no impact, damage, or interception footage is supplied. No Ukrainian confirmation.

  • Interior Minister Vyhivskyi orders internal investigation into Petropavlivska Borshchahivka incident; full official statement issued (20:20–20:23 UTC, РБК-Україна; Николаевский Ванёк; Олексій Білошицький, confidence MEDIUM-HIGH for institutional attribution; MEDIUM for factual content): Vyhivskyi states he ordered the investigation during the day and receives regular reports from NGU Commander Pivnenko, acting National Police chief, and 1st Corps Azov command. The building is described as used by an NGU unit. Pivnenko and deputies arrived on scene. Relatives of servicemen inside were given access; medics and public representatives invited. State Bureau of Investigation (DBR) and the Military Ombudsman's Office are working on site. NGU command pledges full cooperation. The statement urges citizens to refrain from spreading false information and unlawful actions.

  • SOTA publishes detailed multi-source compilation on Petropavlivska Borshchahivka (20:40 UTC, SOTA, confidence MEDIUM for aggregation; LOW for extreme claims): SOTA's video caption and accompanying text relay: Budanov arrived and spoke with the 14-year-old (per UNIAN), helped contact the boy's sister; BBC News reported police received a call from private ambulance workers obstructed from entering; crowd damaged a police bus; police used gas; "shots heard on video" (no visual corroboration in supplied frames). Pivnenko described the house as temporary processing for mobilised personnel. Azov confirmed building use by their unit and four hospitalised with injuries. Police denied illegal detention and fatalities. Budanov promised personal oversight; DBR and Prosecutor General's Office involved. SOTA's own analysis rates reliability MEDIUM, noting the attached video shows only a nighttime crowd pressing a police bus at a brick residential building, with no frames showing Budanov, the child, the interior, or injuries.

  • Claimed strike on Kyiv air-defense position kills two named officers (20:27 UTC, Colonelcassad relaying ТАСС, confidence LOW): A Russian military-blogging channel, citing ТАСС, reports that a strike on an air-defense object in Kyiv killed Major Oleksandr Konovalov of the 138th Radio-Technical Brigade and Lieutenant Andriy Karapka from Chernivtsi Oblast. No Ukrainian-side confirmation, imagery, or independent verification is supplied.

  • Claimed power outages in Ivano-Frankivsk after strikes on Chernivtsi Oblast (20:41 UTC, Военкор Котенок, confidence LOW): A Russian milblogger reports electricity disruptions in Ivano-Frankivsk and surrounding cities following a series of strikes on Chernivtsi Oblast, preliminarily identifying a "large energy object" as hit. No Ukrainian official confirmation, imagery, or Ukrenergo statement is supplied. This follows prior-baseline Air Force alerts for Chernivtsi and western Ukraine.

  • Investigation.Info documents alleged disinformation call to police at Petropavlivska Borshchahivka (20:51 UTC, Оперативний ЗСУ relaying Слідство.Інфо, confidence MEDIUM-HIGH for outlet; MEDIUM for specific claims): A screenshot from the Ukrainian investigative outlet Слідство.Інфо reports that a woman presenting herself as owner of private clinic "Med-prestizh" called police alleging illegal detention of military personnel. Investigation.Info verified the ambulance had not been operating since 2023 and the vehicle seen at the scene was sold in 2024. The relay frames the call as a disinformation attempt to disrupt mobilisation. No independent verification of the woman's identity or legal consequences is supplied.

  • "Coalition of the Willing" exercises scheduled in Nowa Dęba, Poland, 9–22 November (20:51 UTC, РБК-Україна, confidence MEDIUM): RBC-Ukraine reports that a 36-nation coalition led by France and the UK will conduct military exercises in Nowa Dęba, Poland, to test deployment capability to Ukraine after the war. The United States is not participating. The attached photo shows a soldier carrying a loitering munition in open terrain; no insignia or location identifiers link it to the specific exercise. The 36-country figure and exact dates are unverified from this source alone.

Reported situation by area

Petropavlivska Borshchahivka, Kyiv Oblast:

  • New: Full official statement from Interior Minister Vyhivskyi (20:20–20:23 UTC) confirms the building's use by an NGU unit, Pivnenko's on-site presence, investigation ordered, relatives granted access, DBR and Military Ombudsman working on scene. SOTA (20:40 UTC) aggregates UNIAN, BBC, and Pivnenko/Azov statements: 14-year-old led out, Budanov spoke with him, police denied hostages/fatalities, four hospitalised with injuries, crowd damaged police bus, gas used, "shots heard" (unverified). Оперативний ЗСУ/Слідство.Інфо (20:51 UTC) reports a woman's police call about "illegal detention" was based on a defunct clinic and a sold vehicle, framing it as disinformation. Два майора (20:50 UTC) claims communications jamming in the area. Николаевский Ванёк (20:34 UTC) notes no further information expected that night. Prior-baseline institutional statements (Azov Corps, Prokopenko denial, ASTRA/Pivnenko interview, STERNENKO 14-year-old footage) carried forward. (Confidence MEDIUM-HIGH for institutional statements and physical scene; MEDIUM for 14-year-old evacuation; LOW for all torture/hostage/gunfire/extreme-count narratives.)

Kyiv city and Kyiv Oblast:

  • New: Air Force UAV alerts: south of Boryspil heading toward Kyiv (20:30 UTC); toward Osokorky (20:36 UTC). Colonelcassad/ТАСС (20:27 UTC) claims a strike on a Kyiv air-defense position killed two named officers. Two Majors (20:50 UTC) claims mobile internet jamming in the Petropavlivska area. Prior-baseline КМВА red alert (20:00 UTC) and electricity 43% claim (19:50 UTC) carried forward. No impacts independently confirmed. (Confidence HIGH for alert issuance; LOW for materialisation and the officer-death claim.)

Chernivtsi, Ivano-Frankivsk, and western Ukraine:

  • New: Air Force jet-powered UAV alert toward Chernivtsi (20:28 UTC). Военкор Котенок (20:41 UTC) claims power outages in Ivano-Frankivsk after strikes on Chernivtsi Oblast, identifying a "large energy object" as hit. No Ukrainian official confirmation or imagery. Prior-baseline Chernivtsi OVA reports (three UAVs, two impacts, one civilian hospitalised) carried forward. (Confidence MEDIUM for alert issuance; LOW for the Ivano-Frankivsk outage claim and energy-object identification.)

Rivne, Ternopil, Khmelnytskyi, Zhytomyr oblasts:

  • New: Air Force alerts: UAV toward Chemerivtsi/Khmelnytskyi (20:29 UTC); toward Rivne from east (20:42 UTC); toward Kopychyntsi/Ternopil (20:43 UTC); toward Berезne/Rivne (20:44 UTC); jet-powered UAV north of Zhytomyr heading toward Rivne (20:44 UTC). No impacts reported. (Confidence HIGH for issuance; LOW for materialisation.)

Cherkasy, Kirovohrad, Poltava, Sumy oblasts:

  • New: Air Force alerts: UAV toward Cherkasy from west (20:30 UTC); jet-powered UAVs from Kirovohrad toward Zvenyhorodka/Cherkasy (20:46 UTC); main enemy UAV group from Sumy through Poltava and Cherkasy heading west/southwest (20:47 UTC). Prior-baseline Sumy→Poltava alerts (20:16 UTC) carried forward. No impacts. (Confidence HIGH for issuance; LOW for materialisation.)

Mykolaiv and Dnipropetrovsk oblasts:

  • New: Air Force jet-powered UAV alerts toward Pervomaisk/Lysa Hora, Mykolaiv Oblast (20:32 UTC); toward Piatykhatky, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (20:50 UTC). No impacts. (Confidence HIGH for issuance; LOW for materialisation.)

Zaporizhzhia Oblast:

  • New: Air Force UAV alert toward Zaporizhzhia from south (20:31 UTC). Prior-baseline KAB warning (19:59 UTC) and Komyshuvakha strike reporting carried forward. No new kinetic events in this batch. (Confidence HIGH for alert issuance.)

Moscow, Russia:

  • New: ТАСС/Sobyanin (20:45 UTC): 10 UAVs shot down on approach to Moscow, 28 total in preceding hour. This partially corroborates the prior-baseline Военкор Котенок claim (20:04 UTC) of a drone attack on Moscow. No impact, damage, or interception footage supplied. No Ukrainian confirmation. (Confidence MEDIUM for official statement; LOW for operational detail.)

Poland / Kaliningrad border:

  • New: BelVPO (20:27 UTC) claims Poland launched a special operation near the Kaliningrad border citing intelligence about sabotage, with an operational headquarters at Warmian-Masurian and Podlaskie voivodeship police bases. The accompanying photo shows armed soldiers along a concertina-wire fence visually consistent with the Belarus–Poland border barrier rather than the Kaliningrad corridor. No Polish government source or independent corroboration. (Confidence LOW; photo-caption mismatch noted.)
  • New: Rybar (20:45 UTC) publishes an analytical piece on economic depression in Poland's border regions due to severed Belarus ties, citing NMP interview with Piotr Łuczaj and Jacek Porosa. Claims 200,000 Poles and Belarusians affected, Podlasie losing ~800 million PLN annually. Frames Western platform suppression. (Confidence MEDIUM for publication; LOW for specific economic figures.)
  • New: РБК-Україна (20:51 UTC) reports Coalition of the Willing exercises in Nowa Dęba, Poland, 9–22 November, 36 nations, France/UK-led, US excluded. (Confidence MEDIUM.)

Georgia:

  • New: Colonelcassad (20:20 UTC) relays Georgian PM Kobakhidze's statement that Georgia is ready to strengthen communication channels with Russia including trade and humanitarian links, continuing "not cannon fodder for the West" framing. No direct Russia-Ukraine war event. (Confidence MEDIUM for statement; N/A for operational relevance.)

Reported strikes and air-defense activity

  • Moscow air defense (20:45 UTC, ТАСС/Sobyanin): 10 UAVs reportedly destroyed on approach to Moscow; 28 total in one hour. No impact, damage, or interception imagery. No Ukrainian confirmation. Partially corroborates prior-baseline Военкор Котенок claim. (Confidence MEDIUM for official statement; LOW for operational detail.)

  • Air Force alerts, 20:28–20:51 UTC (Повітряні Сили; Оперативний ЗСУ): Extensive UAV track reporting across western and central Ukraine: Chernivtsi (jet), Chemerivtsi, Kyiv (Boryspil→city, Osokorky), Cherkasy, Zaporizhzhia, Mykolaiv (Pervomaisk/Lysa Hora, jet), Rivne, Ternopil, Khmelnytskyi, Zhytomyr (jet), Kirovohrad→Cherkasy, Sumy→Poltava→Cherkasy (main group), Dnipropetrovsk (Piatykhatky, jet). Оперативний ЗСУ posted an updated air-raid map at 20:51. No impacts confirmed as of 20:52 UTC. (Confidence HIGH for issuance; LOW for materialisation.)

  • Claimed Kyiv air-defense strike (20:27 UTC, Colonelcassad/ТАСС): Reports a strike on an air-defense object in Kyiv killing Major Konovalov (138th Radio-Technical Brigade) and Lt. Karapka (Chernivtsi). No Ukrainian confirmation, imagery, or independent verification. (Confidence LOW.)

  • Claimed Chernivtsi/Ivano-Frankivsk energy strikes (20:41 UTC, Военкор Котенок): Reports power outages in Ivano-Frankivsk after strikes on Chernivtsi Oblast; "large energy object" preliminarily hit. No Ukrainian official confirmation. (Confidence LOW.)

  • Petropavlivska Borshchahivka (20:20–20:51 UTC, multiple sources): Not a kinetic strike. Nighttime crowd confrontation at an NGU processing site. Four servicemen hospitalised with injuries. 14-year-old reportedly evacuated. Police bus damaged. Gas used. "Shots heard" per SOTA/BBC relay, unverified in supplied media. Police denied hostages and fatalities. Communications jamming claimed by Two Majors. (Confidence MEDIUM-HIGH for physical scene; MEDIUM for 14-year-old; LOW for extreme claims.)

Reported Russian activity

  • Sobyanin/Moscow air-defense accounting (20:45 UTC, ТАСС): Official Moscow mayor's office reports 28 UAVs downed in one hour, 10 on approach to capital. (Confidence MEDIUM for statement.)
  • Colonelcassad/ТАСС Kyiv air-defense officer deaths (20:27 UTC): Claims strike killed two named Ukrainian officers. No corroboration. (Confidence LOW.)
  • Военкор Котенок western Ukraine energy strikes (20:41 UTC): Claims Ivano-Frankivsk outages after Chernivtsi strikes. No corroboration. (Confidence LOW.)
  • BelVPO Poland/Kaliningrad special operation (20:27 UTC): Claims Polish security deployment near Kaliningrad. Photo appears to show Belarus border fence. No Polish confirmation. (Confidence LOW.)
  • Rybar Poland border economics (20:45 UTC): Analytical piece on Podlasie economic losses from Belarus severance. (Confidence MEDIUM for publication; LOW for figures.)
  • Petropavlivska Borshchahivka amplification (20:25–20:50 UTC, Colonelcassad, АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА, Два майора, Старше Эдды, Военкор Котенок, Alex Parker Returns): Multi-channel Russian-language narrative: "concentration camp," "torture prison," "40 held," "broken spines," "deaths," "Azov worse than Buryats," "Budanov admitted 14 held," threats against protesters. Dehumanizing language ("хохлы," "обезьяны," "NaVoZa"). Source-laundering of Ukrainian-origin footage (TIMES OF UKRAINE, РЕАЛЬНИЙ КИЇВ, UNIAN watermarks). Sexual violence threat against Zelensky (Старше Эдды, 20:49). No visual evidence of torture, basement, gunfire, or extreme injuries in any supplied frame. (Confidence LOW for all extreme claims; HIGH for coordinated propaganda pattern.)
  • Colonelcassad Georgia-Russia channels (20:20 UTC): Relays Georgian PM statement on strengthening Russia ties. (Confidence MEDIUM for statement; N/A for war relevance.)

Reported Ukrainian activity

  • Air Force (Повітряні Сили, 20:28–20:51 UTC): Issued 14 new UAV alerts covering Chernivtsi, Khmelnytskyi, Kyiv, Cherkasy, Zaporizhzhia, Mykolaiv, Rivne, Ternopil, Zhytomyr, Kirovohrad, Sumy→Poltava, Dnipropetrovsk. Оперативний ЗСУ posted updated air-raid map (20:51). (Confidence HIGH for issuance.)
  • Interior Minister Vyhivskyi (20:20–20:23 UTC, РБК-Україна; Николаевский Ванёк; Олексій Білошицький): Ordered internal investigation into Petropavlivska Borshchahivka. Confirmed DBR and Military Ombudsman on scene. Relatives granted access. Urged citizens against spreading false information. (Confidence MEDIUM-HIGH for institutional statement.)
  • SOTA (20:40 UTC): Published multi-source compilation on Petropavlivska Borshchahivka relaying UNIAN, BBC, Pivnenko, Azov, and police statements. (Confidence MEDIUM for aggregation.)
  • Оперативний ЗСУ / Слідство.Інфо (20:51 UTC): Documented a woman's police call about "illegal detention" as based on a defunct clinic and sold vehicle, framing it as disinformation. (Confidence MEDIUM-HIGH for outlet; MEDIUM for specific claims.)
  • STERNENKO (20:44 UTC): Ukrainian-language commentary identifying two problems: failure to reform mobilisation, and inappropriate crowd behaviour. Warns against street violence escalation benefiting Russia. (Confidence MEDIUM for commentary.)
  • РБК-Україна (20:51 UTC): Reports Coalition of the Willing exercises in Poland, Nov 9–22. (Confidence MEDIUM.)
  • Exilenova+ (20:47 UTC): Posts Brent oil futures screenshot showing 8.21% daily decline to $104.12, captioned "good news" (implying Russian revenue squeeze). (Confidence MEDIUM for chart data; LOW for interpretive framing.)
  • Zelensky, Zaporizhzhia OVA, General Staff, Azov Corps, Prokopenko, ASTRA/Pivnenko: Prior-baseline statements carried forward; no new presidential or General Staff publications in this batch.

Civilian and infrastructure impact

  • Petropavlivska Borshchahivka, Kyiv Oblast (20:20–20:51 UTC, multiple sources): Four NGU servicemen hospitalised with injuries (per Azov statement, Pivnenko, SOTA). A 14-year-old reportedly evacuated in a thermal blanket (STERNENKO prior baseline; SOTA/UNIAN relay). Police bus damaged by crowd. Gas used. Communications jamming claimed by Two Majors. Police denied hostages and fatalities. No confirmed civilian deaths from the confrontation. Russian channels claim 40 held, broken spines, deaths, torture; none documented in supplied media. (Confidence MEDIUM for four hospitalised and 14-year-old evacuation; LOW for all extreme claims.)
  • Ivano-Frankivsk / Chernivtsi Oblast (20:41 UTC, Военкор Котенок): Claimed power outages after strikes on a "large energy object." No Ukrainian official confirmation, Ukrenergo statement, or imagery. (Confidence LOW.)
  • Komyshuvakha, Zaporizhzhia Oblast: Prior-baseline 26 dead, 5 hospitalised, SAR ongoing carried forward. No new update in this batch. (Confidence MEDIUM-HIGH for event; MEDIUM for 26-dead preliminary count.)
  • Kyiv electricity: Prior-baseline 43% claim and emergency disconnection schedule carried forward. No new damage reported in this batch. (Confidence MEDIUM for underlying outage context; LOW for 43% figure.)

Information environment and disputed claims

  • Petropavlivska Borshchahivka – competing narratives: Ukrainian official account (Vyhivskyi, Pivnenko, Azov, police, SOTA): NGU processing site, four injured servicemen hospitalised, 14-year-old evacuated, police denied hostages/fatalities, investigation by DBR and Prosecutor General. Pro-Russian accounts (Котенок, АРХАНГЕЛ, Два майора, Старше Эдды, Alex Parker Returns): "concentration camp," "40 held," "broken spines," "deaths," "Azov torture," "Budanov admitted 14 held," "many such houses," threats against protesters, dehumanizing slurs. The "Buryat" meme (Alex Parker Returns, 20:28) recycles Ukrainian internet satire as literal evidence. ТАСС (20:40) claims basement detention of the 14-year-old; no visual corroboration. Слідство.Інфо (via Оперативний ЗСУ, 20:51) identifies a woman's police call as disinformation based on a defunct clinic. STERNENKO (20:44) acknowledges genuine mobilisation-system failures while warning against street violence. (Confidence MEDIUM-HIGH for physical scene and institutional statements; LOW for all extreme narratives; HIGH for coordinated multi-channel propaganda pattern.)
  • Moscow UAV claim convergence: Prior-baseline Военкор Котенок (20:04 UTC) claimed drone attack on Moscow; new ТАСС/Sobyanin (20:45 UTC) reports 28 downed in one hour. This is a partial official corroboration of the milblogger claim, though neither source supplies impact imagery or Ukrainian confirmation. (Confidence MEDIUM for official statement; LOW for operational detail.)
  • Poland/Kaliningrad claim: BelVPO (20:27 UTC) alleges Polish special operation near Kaliningrad; photo appears to show Belarus–Poland border fence. Rybar (20:45 UTC) publishes economic analysis of Podlasie. Neither has Polish government corroboration. (Confidence LOW for operational claim; MEDIUM for Rybar publication.)
  • Coalition of the Willing exercises: РБК-Україна (20:51 UTC) reports Nov 9–22 exercises in Nowa Dęba, 36 nations, US excluded. The attached photo is generic (soldier with loitering munition, no location identifiers). (Confidence MEDIUM; photo adds zero corroboration.)
  • Brent oil decline: Exilenova+ (20:47 UTC) posts chart showing 8.21% drop to $104.12, captioned "good news." No date visible in screenshot; catalyst unidentified. (Confidence MEDIUM for chart data; LOW for interpretive framing.)
  • 4,304 kamikaze drones (General Staff, prior baseline 20:03 UTC): Extraordinary figure remains unverified; no new corroboration in this batch. Carried forward as flagged. (Confidence LOW-MEDIUM.)

Evidence limitations and unresolved questions

  • Petropavlivska Borshchahivka: The cause of injuries to four servicemen remains unexplained. The 14-year-old's identity, reason for presence, and circumstances are unverifiable from supplied footage. The "shots heard" claim (SOTA/BBC relay) has no visual corroboration in any supplied frame. The "40 held," "broken spines," and "deaths" claims (Russian channels) are unsupported. The "Budanov admitted 14 held" claim (Котенок, 20:45) contradicts the SOTA/UNIAN account that Budanov stated there were "no more hostages." The phone-confiscation justification and investigation independence remain unknown. The Слідство.Інфо disinformation finding is single-source. Communications jamming in the area (Two Majors) is unverified.
  • Moscow UAVs: Sobyanin's 28-downed figure lacks imagery, interception logs, or damage reports. No Ukrainian confirmation. The relationship between this and the prior-baseline Котенок claim is unclear (same event or separate).
  • Ivano-Frankivsk/Chernivtsi energy strikes: Single-source milblogger claim. No Ukrainian OVA, Ukrenergo, or DSNS confirmation. No imagery.
  • Kyiv air-defense officer deaths: Single-source ТАСС relay via Colonelcassad. No Ukrainian confirmation, obituary, or imagery.
  • Poland/Kaliningrad: Photo-caption mismatch (Belarus fence vs. Kaliningrad claim). No Polish official source.
  • Coalition exercises: 36-country figure and Nov 9–22 dates unverified beyond RBC-Ukraine. Attached photo is generic.
  • Brent oil: Screenshot lacks a visible date; catalyst for the 8.21% decline unidentified.
  • Air Force alerts (20:28–20:51 UTC): No impacts, interceptions, or debris reports confirmed as of 20:52 UTC. Alert issuance does not establish materialisation.
  • Silence on other sectors: No new ground evidence for Kharkiv, Donetsk, Luhansk, or southern axes in this batch beyond prior-baseline General Staff summary. Absence of reports does not establish unchanged conditions.
  • Dempster-Shafer beliefs: The supplied structure assigns highest combined belief to "Military Action: Drone Strike by Russia on settlement in Dnipropetrovsk Region" (0.219) and "Communication: Communication Network Disruption in Kyiv area" (0.128), with general uncertainty at 0.445. These are analytic support only and do not establish events.

Weather

Frontline weather per Open-Meteo as of 2026-11-02T20:45 UTC:

  • Kharkiv / Vovchansk: 7.3 °C, fog, wind 0.8 m/s, cloud 78%, no precipitation.
  • Luhansk / Svatove: 7.7 °C, mainly clear, wind 0.8 m/s, cloud 38%, no precipitation.
  • Donetsk / Pokrovsk: 6.7 °C, mainly clear, wind 1.7 m/s, cloud 24%, no precipitation.
  • Zaporizhzhia / Orikhiv: 7.8 °C, mainly clear, wind 1.6 m/s, cloud 30%, no precipitation.
  • Kherson / Kherson: 8.3 °C, overcast, wind 2.4 m/s, cloud 100%, no precipitation.

Daily forecast (2 November): minimum 5.4–7.0 °C, maximum 11.3–12.4 °C; fog expected at Vovchansk, Svatove, Pokrovsk, and Orikhiv; overcast at Kherson. Precipitation probability ≤10% across all points; wind maxima 1.4–3.1 m/s.

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