Nightwatch
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Historical intelligence

Situation Report

Archived operational intelligence briefing retained for historical analysis.

Intelligence brief / archived issue

Situation Update (UTC)

Key reported developments

  • Dnipro injuries rise to three (27 Oct): Governor Hanja reports the injured count from the Dnipro strike has increased from one to three; two men aged 34 and 74 are hospitalised receiving medical care. This updates the prior-batch figure of one injury. (event time not specified; Олександр Ганжа / Дніпропетровська ОДА 16:07:10; confidence MEDIUM for the toll as an official statement)

  • Kyiv Podil – Suzuki and Subaru dealerships damaged (27 Oct): RBC-Ukraine reports damage to official Suzuki and Subaru dealerships in Kyiv's Podil district from the overnight Russian attack. A photo shows the Subaru building with a shattered glass curtain wall, debris and exposed framing; the Suzuki claim is text-only with no damage image supplied. The Subaru service centre is reported operational; the Suzuki salon is temporarily closed. (event time not specified in message; РБК-Україна 16:06:02–16:06:03; confidence MEDIUM-HIGH for Subaru structural damage; LOW for Suzuki damage extent)

  • Ukrainian General Staff claims ~60% Shahed/Geran-4 shootdown rate (27 Oct): The General Staff states the average intercept rate for jet-powered "Geran-4" drones over the last three months is nearly 60%, reaching up to 80% during some attacks, crediting tactical aviation (F-16, Mirage, MiG-29), "small air defence" systems (Gepard, Shilka, Skynex, Skyranger, Terrahawk Paladin), interceptor drones, and MANPADS-equipped mobile fire groups. A photo shows an air-defence vehicle with roughly 35–45 painted kill marks. No methodology, dates or locations are supplied. (event time not specified; Генеральний штаб ЗСУ 16:00:59–16:01:00; confidence MEDIUM for the institutional claim; LOW for the precise percentages)

  • Russian "Western" grouping claims Krab SPG destroyed in Kharkiv Oblast (27 Oct): The grouping's channel claims a fibre-optic FPV drone struck a Polish-made Krab self-propelled gun in Kharkiv Oblast, with EW failing to interfere. The accompanying video shows drone preparation and an ambiguous flight frame; no Krab vehicle, impact, explosion or wreckage is visible. (event time not specified; Группировка войск «Запад» 16:06:02–16:06:03; confidence LOW for the claimed kill)

  • Russian Defence Minister Belousov inspects "Dnepr" grouping (27 Oct): ТАСС reports Belousov visited the "Dnepr" troop grouping's command post, was briefed, and was shown soldier-developed UAVs, ground combat modules and counter-drone means. The MoD claims drone units formed this year show "high results" and that Belousov ordered scaling of strike-drone effectiveness. Three watermarked photos accompany the report; a forested backdrop in one image is noted as inconsistent with the southern front terrain. (event time not specified; ТАСС 16:04:48–16:04:49; confidence MEDIUM for the visit as an official MoD/TASS report; LOW for performance and procurement claims)

  • Oleshky "silence mode" end time specified (27 Oct): ТАСС relays State Duma deputy Lantratova stating the Oleshky ceasefire runs until 22:59 MSK (19:59 UTC) on 1 November. This is a more precise end time than the prior-batch "until 1 November" framing. No Ukrainian, UN or third-party confirmation is supplied. (event time not specified; ТАСС 16:13:53; confidence MEDIUM for the statement as reported; LOW for operational compliance)

  • Nordic leaders support Abu Dhabi trilateral but decline mediator role (27 Oct): ТАСС reports Norwegian FM Eide saying Finland and Norway do not wish to act as mediators in the Ukraine settlement but back a trilateral meeting in Abu Dhabi. A Kremlin summary relayed by Операция Z adds that Putin welcomed the Abu Dhabi talks, informed Stubb and Støre of the "US-mediated" Oleshky humanitarian operation, and agreed to maintain direct phone contacts. (event time not specified; ТАСС 15:49:01; Операция Z 16:00:39; confidence MEDIUM for the statements as reported; LOW for the "US mediation" characterisation)

  • Voronezh crater clarified; unit damage not confirmed (27 Oct): Ukrainian OSINT channel CyberBoroshno publishes annotated satellite imagery of the Voronezhsintezkauchuk plant (Voronezh, Voronezh Oblast, Russia), reporting a crater near a new polybutadiene production unit following the 26 October strike, while conceding no visually obvious damage to the unit itself. Coordinates 51.630160, 39.248383 are given. No before/after pair or acquisition date is supplied. (event time not specified; КіберБорошно | CyberBoroshno 16:16:03–16:16:04; confidence MEDIUM-HIGH for the crater's presence; LOW for attribution to the 26 October strike and for unit damage)

Reported situation by area

Kyiv – Podil (new evidence, 16:06 UTC):

  • RBC-Ukraine reports damage to Suzuki and Subaru dealerships in Podil. The Subaru building shows shattered glass, debris and exposed framing in a supplied photo; the Suzuki damage is stated in text but not pictured. This adds Podil commercial damage to the prior-batch Obolon (Rialto), DTEK and Southern Bridge reports. No weapon type or consolidated Kyiv casualty account is supplied in this batch. (РБК-Україна 16:06:02–16:06:03; confidence MEDIUM-HIGH for Subaru damage; LOW for Suzuki)

Dnipro, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (new evidence, 16:07 UTC):

  • Governor Hanja updates the injured count from the Dnipro strike to three (men aged 34 and 74 hospitalised), superseding the prior-batch figure of one. No further damage detail is supplied. (Олександр Ганжа 16:07:10; confidence MEDIUM)

Sinelnikove, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (new evidence, 15:51 UTC):

  • The regional military administration publishes a video documenting winter/blackout preparedness: generators in hospitals and schools, UPS units, a wood-burning stove in a classroom, 11 technical-water wells and drilling for 60 t/day drinking water, and jerrycan stockpiles. USAID, UNDP and UNHCR branding is visible, indicating donor-funded infrastructure. Quantitative claims are self-reported. (Олександр Ганжа 15:51:13–15:51:14; confidence HIGH for the video's authenticity; LOW for the specific figures)

Chernihiv Oblast (new evidence, 16:10 UTC):

  • The Air Force issues a jet-UAV warning for Chernihiv region tracking a threat on course toward Slavutych. No impact or interception is confirmed. This extends the prior-batch alert pattern. (Повітряні Сили ЗС України 16:10:02; confidence MEDIUM for the alert)

Kharkiv Oblast (new evidence, 16:06 UTC):

  • The Russian "Western" grouping claims a fibre-optic FPV drone destroyed a Polish Krab SPG; the video shows only drone preparation and an ambiguous flight frame, with no Krab or impact visible. Separately, the prior-batch Russian MoD claim of a strike on the "NTP Ukrspetszviaz" enterprise remains uncorroborated. (Группировка войск «Запад» 16:06:02–16:06:03; confidence LOW for the Krab claim)

Dobropolye / Novovodyane, Donetsk Oblast (new evidence, 16:02 UTC):

  • Pro-Russian channel Рыбарь claims intense fighting around and inside Dobropolye, persistent Ukrainian presence at Novovodyane (citing "objective control" footage), Russian drone operators striking Ukrainian UAV crews there, and "Tsentr" group assaulters advancing in Dobropolye's built-up area. It estimates a 5–10 km advance over recent months on the Mirnoye–Dobropolye–Annovka–Zolotoy Kolodets line and anticipates a push toward Svyatogorovka and Bokovoye. Only one geotagged drone-still (dated 25.10.2026, coordinates 48.544441, 37.147350) is shown; the "dozen+ frames from inside the city" are asserted but not displayed. Territorial-control shading is the channel's own interpretation. (Рыбарь 16:02:43–16:02:44; confidence LOW for control-line and advance claims)

Zaporizhzhia Oblast – hospital winterization (new evidence, 16:01 UTC):

  • The regional military administration reports hardening a regional hospital for winter: backup generators with fuel, three operational solar plants plus one under construction, a 3 MW solid-fuel boiler, and four cogeneration units under construction with protective walls (claimed 9.4 MW electric + 9.5 MW thermal). WHO/EU/MoH funding plaques and an "EPD Engineering" contractor vest are visible. Solar plants are claimed but not shown in the media. Power figures are self-reported. (Михайло Семікін 16:01:49–16:01:50; confidence HIGH for source authenticity; MEDIUM for numeric claims)

Oleshky, Kherson Oblast (new evidence, 16:06–16:13 UTC):

  • Russian-side sources (Дневник Десантника, ТАСС/Lantratova) reiterate the humanitarian mission is proceeding "strictly per schedule" under a "US-mediated" plan, with temporary resettlement points in several Russian regions and Saldo stating infrastructure is ready. Lantratova specifies the ceasefire end as 22:59 MSK 1 November. The photo of Saldo does not depict any evacuation or infrastructure. No Ukrainian, UN or third-party confirmation is present. (Дневник Десантника 16:06:01–16:06:02; ТАСС 16:13:53; confidence MEDIUM for the statements; LOW for compliance and civilian outcomes)

Voronezh, Voronezh Oblast, Russia (new evidence, 16:16 UTC):

  • CyberBoroshno clarifies the 26 October Voronezhsintezkauchuk strike: a crater is identified near a new polybutadiene unit, but the unit itself shows no visually obvious damage in the supplied imagery. This refines the prior-batch assessment that had flagged "probable" unit damage. (КіберБорошно 16:16:03–16:16:04; confidence MEDIUM-HIGH for the crater; LOW for unit damage)

Moscow (new evidence, 16:15 UTC):

  • Fighterbomber claims a Tu-154M (RA-85782) was restored from 12-year storage and has "joined the VKS," showing a de-icing and takeoff video. The aircraft retains full civilian Aeroflot livery with no military markings; the VKS-transfer claim is unsupported by the visual evidence. (Fighterbomber 16:15:22–16:15:23; confidence MEDIUM-LOW for the flight; LOW for the VKS claim)

Other areas: No new kinetic evidence in this batch for Sumy, Luhansk, Bryansk, Sevastopol/Crimea, or Odesa beyond items carried forward from the prior baseline. Silence here does not establish those situations are unchanged.

Reported strikes and air-defense activity

  • Kyiv – Podil dealerships (27 Oct, overnight, reported 16:06 UTC): Subaru building shows shattered glass and exposed framing in a photo; Suzuki damage stated in text only. Weapon type unspecified. (РБК-Україна 16:06:02–16:06:03; confidence MEDIUM-HIGH for Subaru damage; LOW for Suzuki)

  • Dnipro – strike injury update (27 Oct, reported 16:07 UTC): Governor Hanja reports the injured count has risen to three. (Олександр Ганжа 16:07:10; confidence MEDIUM)

  • Kharkiv Oblast – claimed Krab SPG strike (27 Oct, claimed 16:06 UTC): Russian "Western" grouping claims a fibre-optic FPV drone destroyed a Polish Krab SPG; video shows drone preparation only, no impact or wreckage. (Группировка войск «Запад» 16:06:02–16:06:03; confidence LOW)

  • Jet-UAV alert – Chernihiv toward Slavutych (27 Oct, 16:10 UTC): Air Force warning; no impact or interception confirmed. (Повітряні Сили ЗС України 16:10:02; confidence MEDIUM for the alert)

  • Ukrainian air-defence performance claims (27 Oct, reported 16:00 UTC): General Staff claims ~60% average Geran-4 shootdown over three months, up to 80% in some attacks, crediting tactical aviation, Gepard/Shilka/Skynex/Skyranger/Terrahawk Paladin, interceptor drones and MANPADS. No methodology or verification supplied. (Генеральний штаб ЗСУ 16:00:59–16:01:00; confidence MEDIUM for the institutional claim; LOW for percentages)

  • Voronezhsintezkauchuk crater clarification (26 Oct strike, reported 16:16 UTC): CyberBoroshno identifies a crater near a polybutadiene unit; no visually obvious unit damage. (КіберБорошно 16:16:03–16:16:04; confidence MEDIUM-HIGH for crater; LOW for unit damage)

  • Prior-batch baseline (no new update in this batch): Kyiv Rialto/Obolon, DTEK and Southern Bridge damage; four jet-UAV alerts across central/northern Ukraine; Moscow UAV-interception claims; Odesa and Kharkiv MoD strike claims.

Reported Russian activity

  • Belousov "Dnepr" inspection (16:04 UTC): ТАСС/MoD report the Defence Minister visited the "Dnepr" grouping command post, was shown soldier-developed UAVs, ground combat modules and counter-drone means, and ordered scaling of strike-drone effectiveness. Performance claims are unverified. (ТАСС 16:04:48–16:04:49; confidence MEDIUM for the visit; LOW for results)

  • Oleshky mission messaging (16:06–16:13 UTC): Дневник Десантника and ТАСС/Lantratova reiterate the "US-mediated" plan, "strictly per schedule" execution, resettlement points in several Russian regions, and a ceasefire end of 22:59 MSK 1 November. The "US mediation" framing remains a unilateral Kremlin characterisation with no US source in this batch. (confidence MEDIUM for the statements; LOW for compliance)

  • Diplomatic framing of the Nordic call (15:49–16:17 UTC): ТАСС reports Norwegian FM Eide saying Finland and Norway back an Abu Dhabi trilateral but decline a mediator role. Colonelcassad relays Lavrov's view that the call aimed to bring Europe into negotiations, that nothing new was offered, and that the EU is not represented at the table while the US and RF negotiate. Colonelcassad separately relays Ushakov saying US-Russia talks proceed "normally" and that a single European representative is not under consideration. (ТАСС 15:49:01; Colonelcassad 15:52:44, 16:17:18; confidence MEDIUM for the statements; LOW for the "no new proposals" characterisation)

  • Krab SPG kill claim (16:06 UTC): Russian "Western" grouping claims a fibre-optic FPV drone destroyed a Polish Krab in Kharkiv Oblast; the video does not corroborate the claim. (confidence LOW)

  • Dobropolye axis reporting (16:02 UTC): Рыбарь claims Russian drone operators striking Ukrainian UAV crews at Novovodyane and "Tsentr" assaulters advancing in Dobropolye, with a 5–10 km advance estimate. Single geotagged still only; control-line shading is the channel's interpretation. (confidence LOW)

  • Tu-154M restoration claim (16:15 UTC): Fighterbomber claims RA-85782 was restored from 12-year storage and joined the VKS; the aircraft wears civilian Aeroflot livery. (confidence LOW for the VKS claim)

  • Non-war items noted for completeness: Roskomnadzor denial of mandatory age-marking for minors online (Colonelcassad 15:59:58); HIV epidemic reporting across 30 Russian regions (STERNENKO 16:03:01); Evenkia/Tura food-rationing and at least 34 local deaths attributed to the war (Север.Реалии 16:06:01); an editorial on "European suicide" (Басурин о главном 16:06:04). These are not Russo-Ukrainian-war kinetic events.

Reported Ukrainian activity

  • General Staff drone-intercept claims (16:00 UTC): As above; the GS names F-16, Mirage and MiG-29 in the counter-drone role and lists Western-origin "small air defence" systems plus MANPADS-equipped mobile fire groups. (confidence MEDIUM for the institutional claim; LOW for percentages)

  • Air Force jet-UAV alert – Slavutych (16:10 UTC): New warning in the Chernihiv direction; no impact confirmed. (Повітряні Сили ЗС України 16:10:02; confidence MEDIUM)

  • Winterization reporting (15:51–16:01 UTC): The Dnipropetrovsk RMA documents Sinelnikove's backup power, water and heating measures; the Zaporizhzhia RMA documents hospital energy hardening (generators, solar, 3 MW boiler, four cogeneration units under construction with protective walls). Both are official resilience messaging with donor branding (USAID/UNDP/UNHCR, WHO/EU). (Олександр Ганжа 15:51:13–15:51:14; Михайло Семікін 16:01:49–16:01:50; confidence HIGH for authenticity; MEDIUM/LOW for numeric claims)

  • Satellite launch (16:13 UTC): RBC-Ukraine reports Ukrainian company HIMERA and Danish GomSpace launched OBRIA NANO, a test satellite for a planned Ukrainian communications network, on a SpaceX rideshare; the photo is a generic Falcon 9 launch. (РБК-Україна 16:13:50–16:13:51; confidence MEDIUM for the launch as reported; LOW for image-to-mission correspondence)

  • Prior-batch baseline (no new update in this batch): FPV interceptor footage; Ukraine–Moldova agreement; Zelensky city-defence order; PGO pharmacy tax case.

Civilian and infrastructure impact

  • Dnipro (27 Oct, updated 16:07 UTC): Injured count rises to three; two men (34, 74) hospitalised. (Олександр Ганжа 16:07:10; confidence MEDIUM)

  • Kyiv – Podil (27 Oct): Subaru dealership building shows shattered glass, debris and exposed framing; Suzuki damage stated but not pictured. Service centre reported operational; Suzuki salon temporarily closed. No casualties supplied. (РБК-Україна 16:06:02–16:06:03; confidence MEDIUM-HIGH for Subaru; LOW for Suzuki)

  • Sinelnikove, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (27 Oct): Official video documents backup generators, UPS units, a classroom wood-burning stove, 11 technical-water wells and drilling for 60 t/day drinking water, and water stockpiles; donor branding (USAID/UNDP/UNHCR) visible. Figures are self-reported. (Олександр Ганжа 15:51:13–15:51:14; confidence HIGH for the measures shown; LOW for the numbers)

  • Zaporizhzhia Oblast hospital (27 Oct): Official reporting and on-site photos document generators, fuel, a 3 MW solid-fuel boiler, three solar plants (claimed) plus one under construction, and four cogeneration units under construction with rebar-reinforced protective walls; WHO/EU funding plaques visible. The protective wall signals an expectation of strikes. Power figures are self-reported. (Михайло Семікін 16:01:49–16:01:50; confidence HIGH for source; MEDIUM for figures)

  • Oleshky, Kherson Oblast (27 Oct): Russian-side sources describe a ceasefire and humanitarian mission with resettlement points in several Russian regions; no Ukrainian, UN or third-party confirmation of civilian movement, aid delivery or sustained compliance is present. (Дневник Десантника 16:06:01–16:06:02; ТАСС 16:13:53; confidence LOW for operational compliance)

  • Evenkia / Tura, Krasnoyarsk Krai, Russia (27 Oct): Север.Реалии reports food rationing, vegetable prices reaching ~1,000 rubles/kg, and at least 34 local residents (including indigenous Evenki) killed in the war per Mediazona. This is a domestic social-impact report, not a strike event. (Север.Реалии 16:06:01; confidence MEDIUM for the reporting as relayed; LOW for the death count)

  • Prior-batch baseline (no new update in this batch): Kyiv Rialto/Obolon, DTEK and Southern Bridge damage; Sevastopol/Crimea fourth-day blackouts; Orel death toll of five; Dnipro critical-infrastructure strike (now updated above).

Information environment and disputed claims

  • "US mediation" of the Oleshky mission (16:06–16:13 UTC): Peskov, Поддубный, Военкор Котенок, Lantratova, Дневник Десантника and the Операция Z Kremlin summary all characterise the humanitarian plan as agreed with US mediation. No US government statement, State Department briefing or independent diplomatic source in this batch confirms the mediation role. The claim is a unilateral Kremlin framing repeated across multiple Russian channels. (confidence LOW for the mediation element)

  • Oleshky "strictly per schedule" and resettlement readiness (16:06 UTC): Дневник Десантника, a pro-Russian military-adjacent channel, projects competence ("without disruptions," "step by step") using a Saldo press photo that depicts no evacuation or infrastructure. Lantratova, a State Duma deputy without demonstrated ceasefire-monitoring authority, sets the end time at 22:59 MSK 1 November via ТАСС. No field evidence or third-party monitoring is supplied. (confidence LOW)

  • Krab SPG kill claim (16:06 UTC): The Russian "Western" grouping pairs drone-preparation footage with a specific high-value kill claim; no Krab, impact or wreckage is visible. The first flight frame's target is ambiguous and does not resemble a Krab. (confidence LOW)

  • Dobropolye control-line claims (16:02 UTC): Рыбарь's map shading and "5–10 km advance" figure are the channel's own interpretation; only one geotagged drone-still is shown against a promise of "dozen+ frames from inside the city." The "irony" point about Ukrainian denial is editorial. (confidence LOW)

  • Ukrainian GS shootdown percentages (16:00 UTC): The ~60% average and up-to-80% figures lack methodology, dates or locations; the kill-mark photo cannot be precisely counted and may include non-Shahed targets. No losses or penetrations are mentioned. (confidence LOW for the percentages)

  • Tu-154M "VKS" claim (16:15 UTC): The aircraft wears civilian Aeroflot livery with no military markings, directly conflicting with the VKS-transfer text; no official MoD source is cited. (confidence LOW for the VKS claim)

  • Voronezh unit-damage clarification (16:16 UTC): CyberBoroshno openly notes the absence of visible damage to the polybutadiene unit while highlighting a nearby crater; the crater's attribution to the 26 October strike and the image acquisition date are unverified. (confidence MEDIUM-HIGH for the crater; LOW for unit damage)

  • Zelensky–Moscow invitation and Nordic call framing (15:49–16:00 UTC): Ushakov's account (via Военкор Котенок, Оперативний ЗСУ, Операция Z, ТАСС) that Stubb and Støre relayed Zelensky's wish for direct talks and that Putin offered "all conditions including security" for a Moscow visit is a unilateral Russian diplomatic claim. Оперативний ЗСУ reproduces it with sarcastic framing. No Ukrainian-side confirmation is supplied. (confidence LOW for the invitation framing)

  • EU internet-regulation contrast (15:59 UTC): Colonelcassad notes Roskomnadzor's denial of mandatory age-marking for minors online, contrasting it with EU restrictions. This is a policy-comparison commentary, not a war event. (confidence N/A for war relevance)

Evidence limitations and unresolved questions

  • Kyiv Podil damage: The Subaru damage is visually supported; the Suzuki damage is text-only with no image. No weapon type, exact impact time, or consolidated Kyiv casualty account for the overnight strikes is supplied in this batch.
  • Dnipro injuries: The rise to three is an official governor statement; no independent corroboration or facility detail is supplied.
  • Krab SPG claim: No impact, explosion or wreckage is visible; no Ukrainian loss report or secondary imagery is supplied. The fibre-optic drone's deployment in the Kharkiv direction is the only corroborable element (the tether is visible in the flight frame).
  • Dobropolye / Novovodyane: Territorial control and the 5–10 km advance are single-channel assertions; the geotagged still's coordinate and date should be independently checked against Novovodyane's true location. No DeepState/ISW/AFU cross-check is supplied.
  • Ukrainian GS shootdown rates: No methodology, time period beyond "last three months," unit, location or date is provided; the kill-mark count cannot be verified from the angle shown.
  • Belousov "Dnepr" inspection: The visit is reported by the MoD/TASS with consistent imagery, but the "high results," new-unit formation and procurement claims are unverified; the forested photo backdrop is inconsistent with the southern-front terrain and the location is unconfirmed.
  • Oleshky ceasefire: No Ukrainian-side, UN, ICRC or third-party monitoring confirms compliance, aid delivery or civilian movement; the "US mediation" framing is uncorroborated by any US source; the 22:59 MSK 1 November end time is a single-source deputy statement.
  • Voronezh crater: No before/after imagery, acquisition date or sensor metadata is supplied; the crater's attribution to the 26 October strike is unverified.
  • Tu-154M VKS claim: No military markings, official MoD announcement or registry update is supplied; the storage-duration claim is unverifiable from the media.
  • Sinelnikove and Zaporizhzhia winterization: Quantitative claims (60 t/day water, 11 wells, 3 MW boiler, 9.4/9.5 MW cogeneration, solar counts) are self-reported by regional administrations; the Zaporizhzhia solar plants are not visible in the media.
  • Jet-UAV alert (Slavutych): The alert does not establish that the UAV reached its reported heading; no impact or interception is confirmed.
  • No new evidence in this batch for Sumy, Luhansk, Bryansk, Sevastopol/Crimea, or Odesa kinetic activity, nor for any independently geolocated territorial change. Silence here does not establish that those situations are unchanged.

Weather (Open-Meteo, 16:15 UTC): Kharkiv/Vovchansk 8.9 °C, overcast, wind 2.8 m/s, cloud 56%, precip 0.0 mm; Luhansk/Svatove 11.0 °C, overcast, wind 3.7 m/s, cloud 38%, precip 0.0 mm; Donetsk/Pokrovsk 12.3 °C, overcast, wind 5.0 m/s, cloud 89%, precip 0.0 mm; Zaporizhzhia/Orikhiv 13.5 °C, overcast, wind 3.9 m/s, cloud 100%, precip 0.0 mm; Kherson/Kherson 13.3 °C, light rain, wind 3.7 m/s, cloud 100%, precip 0.1 mm. Daily forecast: Kherson light rain possible (63%, 1.8 mm); all other points 0–8% precip. No tactical implications drawn.