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Historical intelligence

Situation Report

Archived operational intelligence briefing retained for historical analysis.

Intelligence brief / archived issue

Situation Update (UTC)

Key reported developments

  • Ballistic threat and Kyiv air-raid stand-down (03:23–03:29 UTC): The Air Force issued a stand-down of the ballistic-weapon threat at 03:23 UTC, resolving the ☄️ warning raised at 03:05 UTC in the prior batch. The Kyiv City Military Administration (КМВА) declared the air-raid alert over at 03:29 UTC. No interception count, impact assessment, or explanation of the threat's resolution is supplied. (event times 03:23, 03:29 UTC; sources Повітряні Сили ЗС України 03:23:05, КМВА 03:29:00; confidence HIGH for the notices themselves; LOW for what resolved the threat.)

  • Serpukhov, Moscow Oblast: drone strikes and possible hit on 75th Arsenal (03:46–03:49 UTC): РБК-Україна reported nighttime drone strikes on Serpukhov with explosions heard and a missile alert declared; the caption identifies a possible target as the "75 Arsenal," a publicly documented GRAU repair facility for S-300V and Buk air-defense systems. Exilenova+ posted additional footage with the caption "More frames of the attack on the arsenal in Serpukhov. Waiting for satellite imagery." Neither source provides geolocation, weapon type, damage extent, or casualty data. The target identification is hedged ("possibly," "could have been"). (event time ~03:46 UTC; sources РБК-Україна 03:46:01 & 03:46:02, Exilenova+ 03:49:28 & 03:49:29; confidence MEDIUM for the occurrence of nighttime explosions near a town; LOW for the specific "75 Arsenal" identification and damage.)

  • Lipetsk, Russia: alleged strike aftermath footage (03:36 UTC): Оперативний ЗСУ posted five extremely dark, low-resolution video clips captioned "Липецьк, нічна двіжуха" (Lipetsk, nighttime action), showing orange glows and possible smoke on a distant horizon. No geolocatable landmarks, signage, or independent confirmation is present. One clip is a screen-recording of an Instagram story, adding a layer of indirection. Lipetsk is approximately 450 km from the Ukrainian border. No Russian-side confirmation, damage assessment, or official statement accompanies the post. (event time ~03:36 UTC; source Оперативний ЗСУ 03:36:21 & 03:36:22; confidence LOW for the event, location, and target.)

  • Kharkiv Oblast: UAV strike on truck parking, Kholodnohirskyi district (03:47 UTC): Governor Syniehubov reported an enemy UAV strike on a freight-vehicle parking area in the Kholodnohirskyi district of Kharkiv city. Four trucks, one trailer, and one passenger car caught fire. No casualties. Emergency services are responding. (event time 03:47 UTC; source Олег Синєгубов 03:47:22; confidence MEDIUM-HIGH per official OVA reporting; LOW for weapon type and precise impact coordinates.)

  • Tula Oblast, Russia: 70 drones claimed intercepted, private houses damaged (03:24–03:29 UTC): ТАСС reported the Tula Oblast governor's claim that 70 Ukrainian drones were destroyed overnight over the region with no casualties. A separate ТАСС item reports private houses damaged in Tula city and Zaoksky district during a drone attack. No independent verification of the interception count or damage is supplied. (event times 03:24, 03:29 UTC; source ТАСС 03:24:00 & 03:29:02; confidence MEDIUM for the governor's statements as reported; LOW for the 70-drone count and damage extent.)

  • Air Force: 14 additional tracks and one КАБи alert (03:25–03:51 UTC): New tracks cover Bila Tserkva (jet UAV westward, 03:27), Holovanivsk (jet UAV NW, 03:31), Oster from north (group of jet UAVs, 03:32), Kornyn toward Zhytomyr (jet UAV, 03:36), Ladyzhyn on Vinnytsia (jet UAV, 03:37), Kyiv reservoir toward Kyiv (jet UAVs, 03:38), Solone and Slavhorod on Dnipropetrovsk westward (jet UAVs, 03:39), northern Chernihiv from Bryansk (new jet UAVs, 03:42), Krasiatychi and Ivankiv (03:43), Tetiiv toward Vinnytsia/Pohrebyshche (jet UAV, 03:45), Koryukivka northward (03:46), Vilnohirsk NW (03:49), Korosten on Zhytomyr (jet UAVs, 03:51). A 💣 КАБи alert for Zaporizhzhia Oblast was issued at 03:25 UTC. No interception, engagement, or impact outcomes accompany any track. (event times 03:25–03:51 UTC; source Повітряні Сили ЗС України, timestamps as listed; confidence HIGH for alert issuance; LOW for confirmed effects.)

  • General Staff daily losses infographic (03:37 and 03:49 UTC): Two versions of the standard GS cumulative-loss infographic were posted. The first (03:37) shows +1,280 personnel/day; the second (03:49) shows +2,250 personnel/day, with cumulative personnel at ~1,572,790. Both carry the date stamp "22.10.2026." The discrepancy between the two daily personnel figures within the same batch is unexplained. These are unilateral self-reported estimates. (event times 03:37, 03:49 UTC; sources Генеральний штаб ЗСУ 03:37:28 & 03:49:42; confidence MEDIUM for the report's authenticity as an official GS publication; LOW for the accuracy of the underlying figures.)

  • Russian claim: Ukrainian sabotage group destroyed on Sumy direction (03:53 UTC): ТАСС, citing unnamed Russian security structures, reported that a "sabotage group of a Ukrainian special-operations regiment" was destroyed on the "Sumy direction" and that "several enemy officers" were killed. No location, unit designation, date, or corroborating evidence is supplied. (event time 03:53 UTC; source ТАСС 03:53:04; confidence LOW; single-source, uncorroborated claim.)

Reported situation by area

Kyiv, Kyiv Oblast (new evidence this batch): The Air Force's 03:38 UTC track (jet UAVs along Kyiv reservoir toward Kyiv) continues the inbound-threat pattern from the prior batch. КМВА declared the air-raid alert over at 03:29 UTC. The Green Line metro restriction (Syrets–Vydubychi and Osokorky–Chervonyi Khutir) was re-published by КМВА at 03:48 UTC, confirming the service gap persists. The 03:23 UTC ballistic stand-down resolves the prior 03:05 UTC ☄️ warning. A jet UAV past Tetiiv heading toward Vinnytsia (03:45 UTC) and one north of Bila Tserkva heading west (03:27 UTC) indicate continued transit through Kyiv Oblast airspace. No new damage or casualty data for Kyiv city is supplied in this batch. (Previously reported: 15 injured, bridge/metro/ambulance damage, 03:01–03:22 UTC, prior batch.)

Kharkiv Oblast (new evidence this batch): Syniehubov's 03:47 UTC report adds a UAV strike on a freight-vehicle parking area in Kholodnohirskyi district: four trucks, one trailer, one car on fire; no casualties. This is a new district and event type beyond the prior-batch Lymanivka (03:04 UTC) and Slobidskyi/Osnovianskyi reporting. (Previously reported: Lymanivka one killed/four injured, 03:04 UTC; Slobidskyi outbuilding fire, 02:48 UTC; Osnovianskyi strike, 01:22 UTC, prior batch.)

Zaporizhzhia Oblast (new evidence this batch): The Air Force issued a 💣 КАБи alert for Zaporizhzhia Oblast at 03:25 UTC. No impact, damage, or casualty data is supplied. (Previously reported: КАБи alert 02:32 UTC, prior batch; FPV strike near Komyshuvakha, prior daily report.)

Chernihiv Oblast: Air Force tracked a group of jet UAVs on Oster from the north (03:32 UTC), new jet UAVs from Bryansk toward northern Chernihiv (03:42 UTC), and a track past Koryukivka heading north (03:46 UTC). No impact data. (Previously reported: Bryansk-to-northern-Chernihiv track 03:00 UTC, prior batch.)

Vinnytsia Oblast: Air Force tracked a jet UAV toward Ladyzhyn (03:37 UTC) and a jet UAV past Tetiiv toward Pohrebyshche (03:45 UTC). No impact data. (Previously reported: Trostianets track 02:53 UTC, Kamianets-Podilskyi track 03:19 UTC, prior batch.)

Kirovohrad Oblast: Air Force tracked a jet UAV past Holovanivsk heading NW (03:31 UTC). No impact data. (Previously reported: Ladyzhyn track 02:58 UTC, prior batch.)

Cherkasy Oblast: No new tracks in this batch. (Previously reported: Smila attack UAV 02:52 UTC, Kaniv westward 03:19 UTC, prior batch.)

Dnipropetrovsk Oblast: Air Force tracked jet UAVs past Solone and Slavhorod heading west (03:39 UTC) and past Vilnohirsk heading NW (03:49 UTC). No impact data. (Previously reported: Prydniprovska thermal power plant strike claim, prior daily report.)

Zhytomyr Oblast: Air Force tracked a jet UAV past Kornyn toward Zhytomyr (03:36 UTC) and jet UAVs toward Korosten (03:51 UTC). No impact data.

Serpukhov, Moscow Oblast, Russia (new evidence this batch): РБК-Україна and Exilenova+ report nighttime drone strikes with explosions and a possible hit on the 75th Arsenal air-defense repair facility. No Russian official confirmation, damage assessment, or casualty data is supplied. (confidence MEDIUM for explosions near a town; LOW for arsenal identification.)

Lipetsk Oblast, Russia (new evidence this batch): Оперативний ЗСУ posted dark footage allegedly showing strike aftermath. No Russian confirmation, geolocation, or independent verification. (confidence LOW.)

Tula Oblast, Russia (new evidence this batch): The governor, via ТАСС, claims 70 Ukrainian drones destroyed overnight; private houses damaged in Tula and Zaoksky district. No Ukrainian confirmation. (confidence MEDIUM for the governor's statement as reported; LOW for the 70-drone count.)

Sumy direction (new evidence this batch): ТАСС claims destruction of a Ukrainian special-operations sabotage group. No location, unit, date, or corroboration. (confidence LOW.)

All other areas: No new evidence in this batch.

Reported strikes and air-defense activity

  • Serpukhov drone strikes (03:46 UTC): РБК-Україна reports drones attacked Serpukhov, Moscow Oblast, with explosions heard and a missile alert declared. The "75 Arsenal" (GRAU repair base for S-300V and Buk systems) is named as a probable target. Exilenova+ posted additional footage. No weapon type, launch origin, damage extent, or casualty data. The target claim is hedged in both sources. (sources РБК-Україна 03:46:01, Exilenova+ 03:49:28; confidence MEDIUM for nighttime explosions; LOW for specific target identification.)

  • Lipetsk alleged strike (03:36 UTC): Оперативний ЗСУ posted five dark clips captioned as Lipetsk nighttime aftermath. No geolocation, landmarks, or independent confirmation. (source Оперативний ЗСУ 03:36:21; confidence LOW.)

  • Kharkiv Kholodnohirskyi UAV strike (03:47 UTC): Syniehubov reports a UAV hit on a freight-vehicle parking area; four trucks, one trailer, one car on fire; no casualties. (source Олег Синєгубов 03:47:22; confidence MEDIUM-HIGH per OVA.)

  • Tula Oblast drone interception (03:24 UTC): The Tula governor, via ТАСС, claims 70 Ukrainian drones destroyed overnight with no casualties. Private houses damaged in Tula and Zaoksky district. (sources ТАСС 03:24:00 & 03:29:02; confidence MEDIUM for the statement; LOW for the count.)

  • Air Force alert sequence, this batch (03:23–03:51 UTC): Ballistic threat stand-down (03:23); КАБи alert for Zaporizhzhia Oblast (03:25); 14 jet-UAV/attack-UAV tracks across Bila Tserkva, Holovanivsk, Oster, Kornyn, Ladyzhyn, Kyiv reservoir, Solone/Slavhorod, northern Chernihiv from Bryansk, Krasiatychi/Ivankiv, Tetiiv, Koryukivka, Vilnohirsk, Korosten. No interception, engagement, or impact outcomes for any track. (source Повітряні Сили ЗС України; confidence HIGH for alert issuance; LOW for confirmed effects.)

  • No confirmed interceptions, shoot-downs, or impact assessments are supplied in this batch for any of the 14 new Air Force tracks or the КАБи alert.

Reported Russian activity

  • Tula Oblast drone interception and damage claims (03:24–03:29 UTC): The Tula governor's claim of 70 intercepted Ukrainian drones and damage to private houses in Tula and Zaoksky district is reported via ТАСС. This describes Russian-side activity within Russian territory. No Ukrainian confirmation or independent verification. (source ТАСС 03:24:00 & 03:29:02; confidence MEDIUM for the statement; LOW for the 70-drone count and damage extent.)

  • Sumy-direction sabotage-group claim (03:53 UTC): ТАСС, citing unnamed Russian security structures, claims a Ukrainian special-operations sabotage group was destroyed on the "Sumy direction" with "several enemy officers" killed. No location, unit designation, date, or corroborating evidence. (source ТАСС 03:53:04; confidence LOW.)

  • Continued UAV and guided-bomb threat activity (inferred): The 14 Air Force tracks and one КАБи alert in this batch describe threats consistent with Russian-launched platforms. The Air Force does not name a launching unit or platform. Attribution is inferred from operational context. (source Повітряні Сили ЗС України 03:25–03:51 UTC; confidence HIGH for alert issuance; attribution inferred.)

  • Dnevnik Desantnika engagement quiz (03:31 UTC): A Russian VDV-affiliated Telegram channel posted a subscriber-engagement quiz featuring a photo of a monument (visually consistent with the Victory Square Obelisk in Minsk, Belarus) with a branded sticker. No operational or conflict-related content. This is community-building and cross-platform audience promotion (VK, MAX, Telegram). (source Дневник Десантника 03:31:01 & 03:31:02; confidence HIGH for the post's existence; no military significance.)

  • Operation Z digitalization/AI propaganda (03:50 UTC): The Operation Z channel posted a lengthy Russian-language piece attributed to "RusVoyenCor" war correspondents, framing Russia's AI and digital-government achievements as "breakthroughs" under Putin. No operational content. This is a domestic-audience information-environment activity. (source Операция Z 03:50:16; confidence HIGH for the post's existence; no military significance.)

  • Non-war Russian domestic items: ТАСС reported a US petroleum-product spill story (03:34 UTC, Sakhalin-related), a US woman's legal case (03:49 UTC, Crysta Pike), and an ASTRA item on US diplomats leaving Saudi Arabia amid Houthi attacks (03:51 UTC). The ASTRA item is flagged in its own analysis as likely recycled 2017 content with a temporal mismatch; it is not independently verifiable in this batch. None is related to the Russo-Ukrainian war. (sources ТАСС 03:34:04, 03:49:04; ASTRA 03:51:13 & 03:51:14; confidence MEDIUM for publication.)

Reported Ukrainian activity

  • Air Force alert management (03:23–03:51 UTC): Ballistic stand-down, one КАБи alert, and 14 new tracks issued across Kyiv Oblast, Kharkiv, Zaporizhzhia, Chernihiv, Vinnytsia, Kirovohrad, Dnipropetrovsk, and Zhytomyr areas. Operational monitoring; no engagement or interception outcomes reported. (source Повітряні Сили ЗС України; confidence HIGH for alert issuance.)

  • КМVA civil-protection measures (03:29, 03:48 UTC): Air-raid stand-down at 03:29 UTC. Green Line metro restriction re-published at 03:48 UTC (Syrets–Vydubychi and Osokorky–Chervonyi Khutir segments). (source КМВА 03:29:00 & 03:48:38; confidence HIGH for the notices.)

  • Kharkiv OVA damage reporting (03:47 UTC): Syniehubov reported the Kholodnohirskyi UAV strike on a truck parking area. Official regional damage reporting. (source Олег Синєгубов 03:47:22; confidence MEDIUM-HIGH.)

  • General Staff daily loss reporting (03:37, 03:49 UTC): Two versions of the standard cumulative-loss infographic posted. The second version shows +2,250 personnel/day versus +1,280 in the first. (source Генеральний штаб ЗСУ 03:37:28 & 03:49:42; confidence MEDIUM for authenticity as an official GS publication; LOW for figure accuracy.)

  • Оперативний ЗСУ reposts and aggregations (03:36, 03:44 UTC): The channel posted Lipetsk footage and a "+1280☠️" caption referencing the GS personnel figure. (source Оперативний ЗСУ 03:36:21, 03:44:17; confidence MEDIUM for the posts' existence.)

  • No Ukrainian General Staff operational summary, Armed Forces bulletin, or official strike attribution for Serpukhov, Lipetsk, or Kharkiv Kholodnohirskyi is supplied in this batch.

Civilian and infrastructure impact

  • Kharkiv, Kholodnohirskyi district (03:47 UTC): Four freight trucks, one trailer, and one passenger car caught fire after a UAV strike on a vehicle parking area. No casualties reported. Emergency services responding. (source Олег Синєгубов 03:47:22; confidence MEDIUM-HIGH per OVA.)

  • Tula Oblast, Russia (03:29 UTC): The governor reports private houses damaged in Tula city and Zaoksky district during a drone attack. No casualty figures. No independent verification. (source ТАСС 03:29:02; confidence MEDIUM for the statement; LOW for damage extent.)

  • Serpukhov, Moscow Oblast, Russia (03:46 UTC): РБК-Україна reports explosions and a missile alert; the "75 Arsenal" air-defense repair facility is named as a probable target. No civilian casualty or infrastructure damage data is supplied. (source РБК-Україна 03:46:01; confidence MEDIUM for explosions; LOW for target identification and damage.)

  • Kyiv (carried forward from prior batch): 15 injured (two 15-year-olds), eight hospitalized; Southern Bridge metro infrastructure, Darnytskyi metro, Pechersk ambulance station and six ambulances damaged; Green Line restricted. Air-raid stand-down issued at 03:29 UTC. No new Kyiv damage or casualty data in this batch. (Previously reported 03:01–03:22 UTC, prior batch; confidence HIGH for prior casualty/damage figures.)

  • Kharkiv Lymanivka, Lozivskyi district (carried forward): One 42-year-old woman killed, four injured (including 13- and 10-year-old boys). No new data in this batch. (Previously reported 03:04 UTC, prior batch; confidence MEDIUM-HIGH.)

  • Kremenchuk, Poltava Oblast (carried forward): UAV strike on media building (fire) and energy-infrastructure object; no casualties preliminarily. No new data in this batch. (Previously reported 03:19 UTC, prior batch; confidence MEDIUM.)

  • Other areas: No civilian impact data supplied for the 14 Air Force tracks, the КАБи alert, the Lipetsk footage, or the Sumy-direction claim.

Information environment and disputed claims

  • Serpukhov "75 Arsenal" target identification: РБК-Україна and Exilenova+ both hedge the target ("possibly," "could have been"). The 75th Arsenal is a publicly documented facility, but the supplied imagery does not confirm which structure was struck. The prior batch carried an ASTRA geolocation corroborating a strike on the 75th Arsenal; this batch adds Ukrainian-side reporting with a similar claim but different framing. The two are not independent corroboration of the same event—they may describe the same incident from different angles. No Russian confirmation is present. (sources РБК-Україна 03:46:01, Exilenova+ 03:49:28; confidence MEDIUM for explosion occurrence; LOW for specific target and damage.)

  • Lipetsk footage: Оперативний ЗСУ's five dark clips lack geolocation, landmarks, and independent confirmation. The channel's track record of posting strike-related content with variable accuracy is noted in the source analysis. No Russian-side confirmation or independent verification. The "🔥" and informal slang framing suggest a celebratory tone. (source Оперативний ЗСУ 03:36:21; confidence LOW.)

  • General Staff losses: internal discrepancy: Two infographics posted 12 minutes apart show different daily personnel increments (+1,280 vs. +2,250) and slightly different cumulative totals (~1,571,820 vs. ~1,572,790). The prior batch's analysis flagged the "22.10.2026" date stamp as an anomaly; this batch's second source analysis treats it as a possible typo. The discrepancy between the two figures within the same batch is unexplained. These are unilateral estimates. (sources Генеральний штаб ЗСУ 03:37:28 & 03:49:42; confidence MEDIUM for authenticity; LOW for accuracy.)

  • Tula 70-drone interception claim: The governor's figure is a single-source Russian claim with no independent verification. The prior batch carried Sobyanin's 630-UAV claim for Moscow region; this batch adds a Tula figure. Neither is corroborated by Ukrainian sources or independent trackers. (source ТАСС 03:24:00; confidence MEDIUM for the statement; LOW for the count.)

  • Sumy sabotage-group claim: ТАСС, citing unnamed "Russian security structures," claims destruction of a Ukrainian special-operations sabotage group with "several enemy officers" killed. No location, unit, date, or corroboration. This is a standard Russian MoD/security-channel claim format. (source ТАСС 03:53:04; confidence LOW.)

  • ASTRA Saudi Arabia / US diplomats item: The source analysis flags this as likely recycled 2017 content with a temporal mismatch (an 8-year-old tweet presented as corroboration for current events). It is not related to the Russo-Ukrainian war and is noted here only for completeness. (source ASTRA 03:51:13 & 03:51:14; confidence LOW for the item's recency and accuracy.)

  • Air Force alert terminology: Emoji-coded shorthand (🏍 jet-propelled UAV, 💣 КАБи, ☄️ ballistic threat) continues. These are operational alert designations, not confirmed weapon identifications. The 03:23 ballistic stand-down resolves the prior 03:05 ☄️ warning without specifying what threat was cleared.

  • Non-war items: Dnevnik Desantnika quiz (03:31 UTC), Operation Z AI/digitalization propaganda (03:50 UTC), Sakhalin oil spill (03:34 UTC), Khakassia bear (03:21 UTC, prior batch), Crysta Pike legal case (03:49 UTC) are unrelated to the war.

Evidence limitations and unresolved questions

  • Serpukhov strike: No Russian official confirmation, damage assessment, casualty data, weapon type, or launch origin is supplied. The "75 Arsenal" identification is hedged in both Ukrainian sources. Whether this is the same event as the prior-batch ASTRA geolocation or a separate strike is not established. No satellite imagery or independent geolocation is available in this batch.

  • Lipetsk event: The footage is too dark and unlocatable to confirm an event, a location, or a target. No Russian confirmation, independent verification, or satellite imagery is supplied. The claim remains entirely unverified.

  • Kharkiv Kholodnohirskyi strike: The OVA reports a UAV strike on a truck parking area but does not specify the UAV type, launch direction, or whether this is connected to the Air Force's earlier Kharkiv tracks (02:59 UTC, prior batch) or the 03:38 UTC Kyiv-reservoir track. No casualty figures beyond "none."

  • Ballistic stand-down (03:23 UTC): The Air Force cleared the ☄️ warning raised at 03:05 UTC but does not specify what threat was resolved, whether it was a real launch, a false alarm, or a precautionary alert. The relationship to the Kyiv strike effects (prior batch) is not stated.

  • 14 new Air Force tracks (03:25–03:51 UTC): No impact, interception, or outcome data for any track. The КАБи alert for Zaporizhzhia Oblast has no accompanying damage or casualty report. Whether these tracks represent a continuing wave, a new wave, or are related to the Serpukhov or Lipetsk claims is unresolved.

  • General Staff daily figure discrepancy: The +1,280 vs. +2,250 personnel increments within 12 minutes are unexplained. Whether the second post is a correction, a different reporting period, or a template error is not established. The "22.10.2026" date stamp anomaly flagged in the prior batch persists.

  • Tula 70-drone claim: No Ukrainian confirmation, independent interception inventory, or damage-assessment imagery. The governor's statement is the sole source.

  • Sumy sabotage-group claim: No location, unit designation, date, or corroborating evidence. Single-source Russian security-channel claim.

  • Batch scope: This update contains 22 messages spanning 03:23–03:53 UTC (approximately 30 minutes). The Dempster-Shafer input assigns 0.662 to "Uncertainty," with 0.202 to "Technology Deployment: Use of reactive drones by Russia" and 0.136 to "Information Warfare: Disinformation Campaign by Russia." The elevated uncertainty mass reflects continued alert activity, newly reported but unverified deep-strike claims (Serpukhov, Lipetsk), and the absence of interception or outcome data for the 14 new tracks. The information-warfare mass reflects the General Staff figure discrepancy, the Tula interception claim, the Sumy sabotage claim, and the Lipetsk footage aggregation.

  • Weather (Open-Meteo, 03:45 UTC): Kharkiv/Vovchansk 8.9 °C, partly cloudy, wind 1.8 m/s; Luhansk/Svatove 9.4 °C, partly cloudy, wind 1.7 m/s; Donetsk/Pokrovsk 10.2 °C, light rain showers, wind 2.3 m/s; Zaporizhzhia/Orikhiv 11.4 °C, partly cloudy, wind 0.8 m/s; Kherson 12.3 °C, overcast, wind 1.6 m/s. 22 October forecast: light rain near Pokrovsk (1.1 mm), fog in Kherson, otherwise overcast with minimal precipitation.

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