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Historical intelligence

Situation Report

Archived operational intelligence briefing retained for historical analysis.

Intelligence brief / archived issue

Situation Update (UTC)

Key reported developments

  • Izium, Kharkiv Oblast: overnight drone strike injures 5, causes four fires. ASTRA (05:30:13 UTC) relayed DSNS Kharkiv-region reporting that Russia struck the residential sector of Izium overnight with attack drones, producing four fire sources, damage to private homes, outbuildings, an administrative building, and passenger cars. Five people were reported injured (described as acute stress reactions in the later Kharkiv OVA summary). Seven DSNS-watermarked photos document nighttime firefighting and morning aftermath. (event time overnight 19–20 Oct, ASTRA citing DSNS, confidence HIGH for event and damage; MEDIUM for casualty count)

  • Kharkiv OVA 24-hour summary: 12 settlements hit, 6 killed, 21 injured. Олег Синєгубов (05:41:34 UTC) reported that over the prior 24 hours, 12 Kharkiv Oblast settlements were struck. Six people were killed in Nova Vodolaha (including girls aged 1 and 11), 15 injured there (7 children); 5 injured in Izium; 1 woman (59) injured in Chuhuiv. Additional fatalities from 18 October (Borova, 65-year-old woman) and 17 October (Starovilirka, 53-year-old woman) were noted. Weapon types: 4 missiles, 5 Geran-2 drones, 1 Molniya drone, 1 FPV drone, 89 drones (type undetermined). Infrastructure damage listed across six raions. (event time 05:41 UTC, Синєгубов/ХОВА, confidence HIGH for official statement; MEDIUM for individual casualty details)

  • Odesa Oblast: overnight strikes on energy objects cause power disruptions. Оперативний ЗСУ (05:35:43 UTC) reported, citing the Odesa OVA, that Russia struck energy facilities in Odesa Oblast overnight, with power-supply interruptions in some districts. A DSNS Odesa watermarked photo shows firefighters extinguishing a large fire at an energy facility at night. (event time 05:35 UTC, Оперативний ЗСУ citing ОВА/ДСНС, confidence HIGH for event and visual evidence; MEDIUM for extent of outages)

  • Dnipro: new strike causes fire and preliminary injuries. Олександр Ганжа / Дніпропетровська ОДА (05:41:11 UTC) reported that Russia struck Dnipro again, igniting a fire, with preliminary reports of injuries. No casualty count, weapon type, or specific facility is identified. (event time 05:41 UTC, Ганжа/ОВА, confidence HIGH for the official statement; LOW for specifics)

  • Russian MoD claims 136 Ukrainian drones shot down over 14 Russian regions. ТАСС (05:16:01 UTC) and ASTRA (05:16:39 UTC) relay MoD figures: air defenses downed 136 Ukrainian UAVs overnight over Belgorod, Bryansk, Voronezh, Kaluga, Kursk, Lipetsk, Oryol, Pskov, Ryazan, Smolensk, Tambov, Tver, Tula oblasts, and the Moscow region. Дневник Десантника (05:17:41 UTC) repeats the same figure. No Ukrainian confirmation or independent verification is supplied. (event time 05:16 UTC, ТАСС/ASTRA/Дневник Десантника citing MoD, confidence LOW for claimed effects; UNCONFIRMED)

  • 44 AK "North" group claims Sumy and Kharkiv advances, 240+ enemy losses. 44 АК (05:17:49 UTC) published a detailed "North" group-of-forces report for 19 October claiming: advances at Korenok (Shostka district, Sumy), Novaya Kazachya south of Tokarevka (Kharkiv), Prykolotne and Maly Burluk (Volchansk direction); capture of one soldier each from the 104th Territorial Defense Brigade and 58th Motorized Infantry Brigade; destruction of 240+ personnel, 46 drone control points, 147 aircraft-type drones, 30 Baba-Yaga drones, 12 NRTK, 2 Damba EW stations, and various vehicles. The embedded analysis rates reliability LOW; the map footer date "19.10.2026" is noted. No Ukrainian confirmation or independent geolocation. (event time 05:17 UTC, 44 АК, confidence LOW for territorial and loss claims)

  • Witkoff–Oslo meeting confirmed for today; follow-on Moscow trip planned. Оперативний ЗСУ (05:28:07 UTC) relayed Axios reporting that the Ukrainian delegation's meeting with US envoy Witkoff is scheduled for today in Oslo, with Zelenskyy, Norwegian PM Støre, EU, and NATO representatives expected. Операция Z (05:36:26 UTC) relayed Reuters reporting that Witkoff and Kushner plan talks in Oslo this week, followed by a trip to Russia to meet Putin; the potential release of US citizen Steven Hubbard was mentioned. The embedded analysis of the Reuters screenshot flags a date anomaly ("October 20, 2026") and notes the pro-Russian channel framing. No Kremlin or White House confirmation. (event time 05:28–05:36 UTC, Оперативний ЗСУ citing Axios / Операция Z citing Reuters, confidence MEDIUM for reported intention; LOW for confirmed schedule)

  • Obukhiv death toll confirmed at 3 by Kyiv OVA. РБК-Україна (05:28:40 UTC) reported, citing the Kyiv OVA, that the overnight strike on a production enterprise in Obukhiv district killed three people (one man, two women), with bodies found during debris clearance. This confirms the figure previously reported by DSNS via Оперативний ЗСУ at 04:50 UTC. (event time 05:28 UTC, РБК-Україна citing ОВА, confidence HIGH for the official confirmation; MEDIUM for independent verification of identities)

Reported situation by area

Kharkiv Oblast – Izium, Nova Vodolaha, Chuhuiv, and 12 settlements (new, official OVA/DSNS): Синєгубов (05:41 UTC) reports 12 settlements struck over 24 hours: 6 killed and 21 injured in Nova Vodolaha (including children); 5 injured in Izium (stress reactions); 1 injured in Chuhuiv. DSNS photos (via ASTRA 05:30) document Izium fires and structural damage. Infrastructure damage spans Bogodukhiv, Kupiansk, Izium, Kharkiv, Lozova, Chuhuiv, and Berestyn districts: power lines, private houses, an educational facility, warehouses, vehicles, and railway infrastructure. Transit evacuation point in Lozova received 144 persons in 24 hours; 65,494 registered since opening. South Slobozhansky: 26 attacks repelled at Kutkivka, Lyman, Starytsia, Mala Vovcha, Izbytske, Vilcha, Okhrimivka, Zakharkivka, Karaychnyke, Bochkove, Zbyyne, Radvikivka. Kupiansk direction: no assault actions. (confidence HIGH for official OVA reporting; MEDIUM for individual casualty details)

Odesa Oblast – energy facilities (new, OVA via Оперативний ЗСУ): Overnight strikes on energy objects; power-supply disruptions in some districts. DSNS Odesa photo shows firefighters at a large nighttime blaze at an energy facility. Weapon type not specified. (confidence HIGH for event and visual evidence; MEDIUM for extent of outages)

Ternopil Oblast – Kremianets district (updated, OVA via РБК-Україна and Оперативний ЗСУ): Three energy objects damaged overnight in Kremianets district. РБК-Україна (05:20 UTC) additionally names Lviv Oblast as a target of overnight energy strikes, though no specific damage detail for Lviv is supplied in this batch. (confidence MEDIUM for Ternopil; LOW for Lviv specifics)

Khmelnytskyi Oblast (updated, РБК-Україна): РБК-Україна (05:20 UTC) names Khmelnytskyi among western regions hit by overnight energy strikes. The MoD "Grand Import" claim from the prior batch remains unconfirmed by Ukrainian sources. (confidence MEDIUM for РБК listing; LOW for MoD specifics)

Dnipropetrovsk Oblast – Dnipro (new, OVA): Ганжа (05:41 UTC) reports a new strike on Dnipro causing a fire and preliminary injuries. This follows the earlier batch's morning drone attacks on Hrushevska, Nikopol, Chervonohryhorivka, and Marhanetska communities. (confidence HIGH for the official statement; LOW for specifics)

Kyiv and Kyiv Oblast (updated, alerts and OVA): КМВА (05:38 UTC) declared a yellow alert for drone threat; Оперативний ЗСУ (05:39 UTC) confirmed an air raid alert for Kyiv. Air Force alerts track jet UAVs from northern Kyiv toward Zhytomyr (05:15), toward Oster (05:34), toward Lisovyi massif (05:43), and toward Rusanivka (05:45). Obukhiv death toll confirmed at 3 by OVA (05:28). (confidence HIGH for alert issuance and OVA confirmation)

Sumy Oblast (updated, 44 АК + General Staff): 44 АК claims fighting at Korenok, Hoten, Velyka Rybytsia, Turya, and strikes on drone positions near Zaymysche (Chernihiv). General Staff (prior batch) named eight settlements shelled. No Ukrainian confirmation of territorial loss. (confidence LOW for 44 АК advance claims; HIGH for General Staff shelling report carried forward)

Lyman / Krasno-Liman sector (new, Rubikon claim): Rubikon (05:15 UTC) posted a ~1-minute compilation claiming strikes on 2S22 Bohdana, HMMWV, pickups, shelters, temporary deployment points, EW, communications, and drones in the Krasno-Liman direction. No geolocation, date, or independent verification. (confidence LOW)

Donbas logistics (new, Rubikon claim): Rubikon (05:20 UTC) posted a ~1-minute compilation framed as "mining of logistics routes," listing 20+ vehicle targets (НРТК, pickups, cars, armored vehicles). No location, date, or BDA. (confidence LOW)

Russian rear areas (new, MoD claim): ТАСС/ASTRA (05:16 UTC) relay MoD claim of 136 Ukrainian drones downed over 14 regions. РБК-Україна (05:20 UTC) reports a fire at the "Nikolskaya" linear production-dispatch station in Tambov Oblast following a drone attack (carried forward from prior batch, now in a digest). (confidence LOW for MoD counts; MEDIUM for Tambov fire as a reported event)

Western and central Ukraine – jet-UAV alert corridor (updated, Air Force): New alerts 05:15–05:45 UTC: north Kyiv toward Zhytomyr; toward Dnipro from southwest (×2); past Holovanivsk, Kropyvnytskyi; group near Petropavlivka, Synelnykove district; toward Sumy from north; past Bershad, Vinnytsia; KAB alert for Donetsk Oblast (05:33); toward Oster; past Lubny, Poltava; toward Kyiv; past Oleksandrivka, Mykolaiv; toward Lisovyi massif; toward Rusanivka. No interception or impact reported per alert. (confidence HIGH for issuance)

Reported strikes and air-defense activity

  • Overnight drone attack and Ukrainian air-defense response (05:17–05:31 UTC, Air Force / General Staff / Оперативний ЗСУ): 165 attack drones launched from 18:00 on 19 October; 115 shot down or suppressed (73 jet-powered); 20 still in air at 08:00. Impacts on 30 locations; debris on 13. Platform types: jet-powered Shahed, S8000 Banderol/Dan-T, Gerbera, Parodiya decoys. Defense assets: aviation, SAM, EW, drone systems, mobile fire groups. General Staff graphic (05:31) shows "115" with a drone silhouette; the embedded analysis flags a "2026" date on the graphic as either a typo or an anomaly. (confidence HIGH for the official report; MEDIUM for interception counts)

  • Izium drone strike (05:30 UTC, ASTRA citing DSNS): Attack drones struck residential sector; four fires; damage to homes, outbuildings, administrative building, cars; 5 injured. (confidence HIGH for event; MEDIUM for casualties)

  • Odesa energy strikes (05:35 UTC, Оперативний ЗСУ citing ОВА/ДСНС): Energy objects hit; power disruptions in some districts; large fire documented in DSNS photo. (confidence HIGH for event; MEDIUM for outage extent)

  • Dnipro strike (05:41 UTC, Ганжа/ОВА): New attack causing fire and preliminary injuries. (confidence HIGH for statement; LOW for specifics)

  • Ternopil energy damage (05:20–05:35 UTC, РБК / Оперативний ЗСУ): Three objects in Kremianets district; РБК additionally names Khmelnytskyi and Lviv. (confidence MEDIUM)

  • Obukhiv warehouse strike (05:28 UTC, РБК citing ОВА): Death toll confirmed at 3 (one man, two women). (confidence HIGH for OVA confirmation)

  • MoD-claimed 136 Ukrainian drone shootdowns over Russia (05:16 UTC, ТАСС/ASTRA): No independent verification. (confidence LOW; UNCONFIRMED)

  • Jet-UAV and KAB alerts (05:15–05:45 UTC, Air Force): 14 new broadcasts across Kyiv, Zhytomyr, Dnipropetrovsk, Kropyvnytskyi, Sumy, Vinnytsia, Donetsk, Poltava, Mykolaiv, and Kyiv city corridors. No interception or impact reported per alert. (confidence HIGH for issuance)

  • Kyiv air raid alert (05:38–05:45 UTC, КМВА / Оперативний ЗСУ / Air Force): Yellow alert for drone threat; alerts track UAVs toward Lisovyi massif and Rusanivka. (confidence HIGH for alert issuance)

Reported Russian activity

  • MoD overnight drone-shootdown claim (05:16 UTC): 136 Ukrainian UAVs claimed downed over 14 regions. No Ukrainian confirmation. (confidence LOW)

  • 44 АК "North" group summary for 19 October (05:17 UTC): Claims advances at Korenok, Novaya Kazachya, Tokarevka, Prykolotne, Maly Burluk; prisoner captures (104th TDF, 58th Motorized); 240+ personnel losses; destruction of EW stations, vehicles, 147 drones, 46 drone control points. Includes unverified claims of 47th Brigade harassing Russian speakers in Sumy and Colombian mercenaries being deceived. Embedded analysis: LOW reliability. (confidence LOW)

  • Rubikon drone-center compilations (05:15–05:40 UTC, four posts): Lyman-sector strike package (2S22 Bohdana, HMMWV, EW, comms); Donbas logistics "mining" (20+ vehicles); anti-drone/PVO compilation (24+ drones downed); long-range UAV interception compilation (60+ FP-2, Lyutiy, Maya, Anubis, B-2, Bober). All include recruitment phone numbers, Rutube/MAX links, and Lostarmour references. No geolocation, date, or independent BDA. (confidence LOW for claimed outcomes; MEDIUM for unit identity as a known Russian drone-operations channel)

  • Воин DV thermal footage (05:34 UTC): Claims 114th Motorized Rifle Regiment (127th Division, "Vostok" group) struck Ukrainian personnel on the Zaporizhzhia direction. No geolocation or independent verification. (confidence LOW)

  • Военкор Котенок D-30 footage (05:44 UTC): Video shows a towed 122-mm D-30 howitzer with a burst barrel and blown breech. Caption attributes it to Ukrainian crew error. No location, date, or unit identification. (confidence MEDIUM for visual evidence of a destroyed D-30; LOW for cause attribution)

  • НгП раZVедка fundraising post (05:32 UTC): Solicits donations (Sberbank account, SBP phone, crypto) explicitly framed as funding drone strikes to cause energy blackouts in Kyiv. Includes dehumanizing language. (confidence HIGH as a self-published intent statement; LOW for operational implications)

  • Группировка войск «Запад» missing-soldier appeal (05:33 UTC): Search for Dmitry Karpov, unit 12274 (36th Regiment), missing since "7.06.26." Embedded analysis flags the 2026 date as likely a typo. (confidence LOW for operational relevance)

  • Witkoff–Moscow diplomatic channel (05:28–05:36 UTC): Reuters/Axios relay via Ukrainian and Russian channels: Oslo talks today with Zelenskyy, Støre, EU, NATO; subsequent Moscow trip planned; Steven Hubbard prisoner-release mentioned. No Kremlin confirmation. (confidence MEDIUM for reported intention)

Reported Ukrainian activity

  • Air Force overnight drone summary (05:17–05:31 UTC): 115/165 neutralized; 30 impacts; 13 debris locations. Published by Оперативний ЗСУ and Генеральний штаб ЗСУ. (confidence HIGH for the official statement)

  • General Staff sector summary (carried forward from prior batch, 05:00 UTC): 206 clashes; 26 repelled South Slobozhansky; 21 stopped Pokrovsk; 12 Lyman; 11 Hulyaipole. No new General Staff ground summary in this batch beyond the drone figures.

  • Kharkiv OVA 24-hour damage and defense summary (05:41 UTC): Detailed settlement-level damage, weapon types, infrastructure losses, evacuation-point figures, and 26 South Slobozhansky attacks repelled. (confidence HIGH for official reporting)

  • Dnipropetrovsk OVA reporting (05:41 UTC): New Dnipro strike with fire and preliminary injuries. (confidence HIGH for statement)

  • Kyiv OVA Obukhiv confirmation (05:28 UTC): Three deaths confirmed with gender breakdown. (confidence HIGH)

  • Odesa OVA energy-strike reporting (05:35 UTC): Strikes on energy objects; power disruptions. (confidence HIGH for statement)

  • Air Force jet-UAV and KAB alerts (05:15–05:45 UTC): 14 new broadcasts. No interception or impact reported per alert. (confidence HIGH for issuance)

  • No Ukrainian confirmation or denial of the MoD 136-drone claim, the 44 АК ground summary, the Rubikon compilations, the Воин DV footage, or the D-30 attribution is present in this batch.

Civilian and infrastructure impact

  • Izium, Kharkiv Oblast (new): Five injured (acute stress reactions per OVA); four fires; residential homes, outbuildings, an administrative building, and cars damaged. DSNS photos document the scene. Per ASTRA/DSNS and Синєгубов. (confidence HIGH for event; MEDIUM for casualty count)

  • Nova Vodolaha, Kharkiv Oblast (updated, OVA): Six killed (including girls aged 1 and 11); 15 injured (7 children). Building on prior-batch figures (3 killed, 15 injured), the updated count adds three additional deaths. Per Синєгубов (05:41 UTC). (confidence HIGH for official statement; MEDIUM for individual identities)

  • Chuhuiv, Kharkiv Oblast (new, OVA): 59-year-old woman injured. Civilian enterprise and two apartment buildings damaged. (confidence MEDIUM)

  • Odesa Oblast (new, OVA/ДСНС): Energy facilities struck; power-supply disruptions in some districts; large fire at an energy object. No civilian casualty count supplied. (confidence HIGH for event; MEDIUM for outage extent)

  • Ternopil Oblast (updated, OVA): Three energy objects damaged in Kremianets district; private households in Chortkiv district (prior batch). No casualties reported. (confidence MEDIUM)

  • Dnipro, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (new, OVA): Strike causing fire and preliminary injuries. No count or facility identified. (confidence HIGH for statement; LOW for specifics)

  • Obukhiv district, Kyiv Oblast (updated, OVA): Three civilians killed (one man, two women); six injured (prior batch). Bodies found during debris clearance. (confidence HIGH for OVA confirmation)

  • Kharkiv Oblast infrastructure (new, OVA): Damage across six raions: power lines (Zolochiv), private houses (Hnylytsia, Oskil, Izium, Lozova, Zlatopil, Berestyn), an educational facility (Lozova), warehouses (Lisne, Zlatopil), railway infrastructure (Berestyn), vehicles. Transit evacuation point in Lozova: 144 persons received in 24 hours; 65,494 total since opening. (confidence HIGH for official reporting)

  • Tambov Oblast, Russia (updated, РБК-Україна): Fire at "Nikolskaya" linear production-dispatch station following a drone attack. Carried forward from prior batch; no new detail in this batch. (confidence MEDIUM for the event as a reported fire)

Information environment and disputed claims

  • MoD 136-drone claim vs. Ukrainian silence: ТАСС, ASTRA, and Дневник Десантника relay the same MoD figure across 14 Russian regions. No Ukrainian authority confirms or denies. The figure is not additive with the Ukrainian Air Force's own 115/165 count (different theaters). (confidence LOW for MoD specifics)

  • 44 АК "North" group narrative: Combines territorial-advance claims, prisoner captures, equipment-destruction tallies, and psychological-operations content (47th Brigade "harassing Russian speakers"; Colombian mercenaries "deceived"). The embedded analysis flags the map date "19.10.2026" and notes standard inflationary metrics. No independent geolocation. (confidence LOW)

  • Rubikon compilations (four posts): Self-published unit channel with embedded recruitment funnels. Claims span Lyman strikes, Donbas logistics mining, anti-drone kills, and long-range UAV interceptions. The "Baba-Yaga" and "DJI Matrice" entries in the Lyman compilation are ambiguous (possibly enemy-captured or caption error). The 60+ FP-2 interceptions in the long-range compilation lack dates, coordinates, or BDA. (confidence LOW for claimed outcomes)

  • D-30 burst barrel (Военкор Котенок): Visual evidence supports a destroyed D-30, but the cause ("crew stuffed the barrel") is an unverified narrative framing. No location or date. (confidence MEDIUM for the object; LOW for cause)

  • Witkoff/Reuters screenshot: The Операция Z relay of the Reuters article shows a date of "October 20, 2026" on the screenshot, flagged by the embedded analysis as anachronistic or a system-clock artifact. Repetition across Оперативний ЗСУ and Операция Z is not independent corroboration. (confidence MEDIUM for reported intention; LOW for screenshot authenticity)

  • НгП раZVедка fundraising: Explicitly solicits donations to fund drone strikes causing civilian energy blackouts in Kyiv. The embedded analysis rates it HIGH as a self-published intent statement but notes dehumanizing language and financial-tracking relevance. (confidence HIGH for the post's existence and stated intent)

  • Non-war content: SOTA (05:23 UTC) reports 500 Italian military deployed to Milan for protest response; РБК-Україна (05:41 UTC) reports tennis player Monfils' retirement and divorce from Svitolina; Z комитет (05:25 UTC) posts a Military Communications Officer Day graphic; Операция Z (05:15 UTC) publishes an import-substitution digest. None is operationally relevant to the conflict.

Evidence limitations and unresolved questions

  • Izium casualties: The five injured are described as "acute stress reactions" in the OVA summary; whether any have physical injuries is not stated. No Russian official claim of responsibility accompanies the event.
  • Odesa energy damage: The OVA reports strikes and power disruptions but does not name specific facilities, specify the weapon, or quantify the outage. No casualty count is supplied.
  • Dnipro new strike: Ганжа reports a fire and "preliminary injuries" without a count, facility name, or weapon type. No follow-up in this batch.
  • Lviv energy strikes: РБК-Україна (05:20) names Lviv among regions hit, but no specific facility, damage, or casualty detail is supplied in this batch.
  • MoD 136-drone claim: No Ukrainian confirmation, independent radar data, or debris evidence. The 14-region list cannot be cross-checked against Ukrainian loss reporting in this batch.
  • 44 АК territorial claims: No independent geolocation, satellite corroboration, or Ukrainian positional reporting confirms or denies advances at Korenok, Novaya Kazachya, Tokarevka, Prykolotne, or Maly Burluk. Prisoner claims (104th TDF, 58th Motorized) are unverified.
  • Rubikon compilations: No dates, coordinates, or BDA for any of the four posts. The "Baba-Yaga/DJI Matrice" entries in the Lyman compilation are ambiguous. The 60+ FP-2 interceptions lack temporal or geographic context.
  • Air Force interception counts: Individual shootdowns remain unverified by independent radar or visual evidence. The 30 impact and 13 debris locations are not broken down by oblast in the General Staff post.
  • Jet-UAV and KAB alerts (05:15–05:45): No interception, shootdown, or impact is reported for any individual alert. Whether these tracks correspond to the same drones counted in the 165-dronewave or to later/earlier tracks is not established.
  • Witkoff–Moscow plan: No confirmed date, agenda, or Kremlin statement. The Reuters screenshot carries an anomalous date. Repetition across channels is not independent corroboration.
  • Obukhiv weapon type: Still not identified by any source in this batch.
  • D-30 incident: Location, date, unit, and cause are not established.
  • Carried-forward gaps (no new corroboration in this batch): Tambov LPDS attribution, Rzeszów airport closure cause, Pskov airport restriction, BARS-Sarmata claim, Colonelcassad POW claim, St. Petersburg damage-assessment imagery, Dnipro Southern Bridge closure.

Weather (Open-Meteo, 2026-10-20T05:45 UTC): Kharkiv/Vovchansk 9.6 °C, mainly clear, wind 2.2 m/s, cloud 36%. Luhansk/Svatove 10.8 °C, mainly clear, wind 2.1 m/s, cloud 14%. Donetsk/Pokrovsk 11.7 °C, overcast, wind 2.2 m/s, cloud 97%. Zaporizhzhia/Orikhiv 11.2 °C, overcast, wind 1.1 m/s, cloud 100%. Kherson 13.8 °C, overcast, wind 3.1 m/s, cloud 92%. Next-day forecast: light rain showers at Pokrovsk (5.6 mm, 55% probability), Kherson (2.7 mm, 50%), Orikhiv (1.3 mm, 38%); Kharkiv and Svatove overcast with low precipitation probability (0.1–0.2 mm).

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