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Historical intelligence

Situation Report

Archived operational intelligence briefing retained for historical analysis.

Intelligence brief / archived issue

Situation Update (UTC)

Key reported developments

  • Volgograd Refinery (Volgograd Oblast, Russia): satellite analysis claims ~70% of primary crude-processing capacity disabled by 2 October UAV strike. Dnipro Osint imagery analysis, relayed by Exilenova+ (19:13:28) and Оперативний ЗСУ (19:21:04), labels three damaged units—ELOU-AVT-1 (40.5%), AVT-6 (20.2%), AVT-3 (8.7%)—with red dashed overlays on satellite imagery. Оперативний ЗСУ attributes the 70% figure to "Harbuz." Both relays include a Trump meme overlay ("It's an escalation"). The 2 October strike date is stated; the damage percentages are analytical estimates, not confirmed by Russian sources or independent review. (Event time: strike 2 October; reporting 19:13–19:21 UTC; sources: Exilenova+ 19:13:28, Оперативний ЗСУ 19:21:04; confidence MEDIUM for strike occurrence and visible damage; LOW for the precise 70% capacity-loss figure.)

  • ArcelorMittal Kryvyi Rih (Dnipropetrovsk Oblast): company announces "cold shutdown" after four missile strikes; 6 killed, 18+ injured claimed. Операция Z (19:17:04) and Colonelcassad (19:35:06) relay a company statement attributing the shutdown to consequences of four missile attacks, with CEO Mauro Longobardo quoted: "Safe work is impossible while the war continues." The cold-stop process is stated to take approximately two months. Casualty figures (6 dead, 18+ injured) are attributed to the company but are not independently corroborated within the supplied messages. The underlying shutdown announcement is described in the embedded analysis as "widely reported by international news agencies and the company itself," though no primary agency release is cited. (Event time: shutdown announcement reported 19:17–19:35 UTC; strikes occurred over a prior period not specified; sources: Операция Z 19:17:04, Colonelcassad 19:35:06; confidence MEDIUM-HIGH for the shutdown decision; LOW for the specific casualty counts as supplied.)

  • Zaporizhzhia, Zaporizhzhia Oblast: OVA updates casualty count to 20 killed, 32 injured from guided aerial bomb strike; three children among the dead. ASTRA (19:27:52) relays OVA head Mykhailo Semikin's statement that casualties rose to 20 dead and 32 injured. Three children are reported killed: two schoolgirls and a 16-year-old whose mother and grandmother also died; the family had previously fled occupied areas of Zaporizhzhia Oblast. Search-and-rescue operations continue, with heavy machinery and a search dog depicted in OVA-watermarked images. This aligns with the earlier Semikin 20/32 figure reported in the prior batch and supersedes the lower Білошицький 18/17/2 count. (Event time: strike time not restated in this message; reporting 19:27 UTC; source: ASTRA 19:27:52; confidence MEDIUM for the updated casualty figures as an official OVA statement; LOW for final totals pending completion of SAR.)

  • Novorossiysk port (Krasnodar Krai, Russia): video relayed of a drone penetrating air defense and striking a military vessel. ЦАПЛІЄНКО (19:23:23) posts a video filmed from the deck of a vessel showing heavy anti-aircraft fire followed by a large explosion at a port facility with gantry cranes. The caption states a drone broke through air defense and attacked a military ship. No geolocation, vessel identification, or damage assessment is supplied. No independent corroboration. (Event time: not specified; source: ЦАПЛІЄНКО 19:23:23; confidence LOW.)

  • Japan signs contract for Ukrainian SkyFall interceptor drones, Defense Minister Koizumi confirms. ЦАПЛІЄНКО (19:25:58, 19:26:10) relays a video of Japanese Defense Minister Shinjiro Koizumi at an official podium confirming a Ministry of Defense contract to purchase interceptor drones from the Ukrainian company SkyFall. Koizumi is quoted stating Tokyo is working to ensure fastest possible delivery and praising Ukraine's "rapid feedback loop" with new drone models appearing every two to three weeks. The video is in Japanese with Ukrainian subtitles; the original audio transcript is not supplied. (Event time: reported 19:25–19:26 UTC; source: ЦАПЛІЄНКО 19:25:58; confidence HIGH for the statement's existence as an official ministerial announcement; MEDIUM for exact contract terms and delivery timelines.)

  • Russian government lifts fuel-export restrictions; 500,000 tonnes of diesel approved for sale abroad. Colonelcassad (19:15:01) reports the Russian government removed restrictions on selling fuel abroad, approving 500,000 tonnes of diesel for export to the US and other countries, to be sold at current market prices. The post frames this as generating "billions of dollars" for the Russian budget and war financing. This updates the prior batch's partial-lifting reporting (ТАСС 18:20:52) with a specific tonnage figure. No Russian government decree text or primary source is cited. (Event time: reported 19:15 UTC; source: Colonelcassad 19:15:01; confidence MEDIUM for the policy change as relayed; LOW for the 500,000-tonne figure and budget-revenue framing.)

  • Ukrainian Foreign Minister Sybiha rejects Trump's call for new presidential elections. РБК-Україна (19:18:18) reports Sybiha stating: "President Volodymyr Zelensky leads our state in a time of war—a war for independence, freedom, and dignity. He has the support of the Ukrainian people, and it is the people who have the right to decide." A photo of Sybiha in a formal setting accompanies the report. Alex Parker Returns (19:31:52) adds editorial commentary. No primary MFA press release or video transcript is cited. (Event time: reported 19:18 UTC; source: РБК-Україна 19:18:18; confidence HIGH for the statement as relayed by a named Ukrainian outlet with photo.)

  • MoD Russia reiterates Lukashovo/Lobanovka capture, now attributed to "Sever Group"; adds port-infrastructure and vessel strike claims. MoD Russia (19:34:34) publishes a "Top News Today" summary claiming Sever Group units established control over Lukashovo and Lobanovka, strikes on Ukrainian port infrastructure and vessels, destruction of UAV control posts by "Rubikon Centre" and Aerospace Forces cooperation, and Tornado artillery strikes on manpower areas. The graphic uses generic soldier/pilot/tank imagery with no geolocation or dated combat footage. This expands the earlier 18:50:30 claim with a unit attribution ("Sever Group") and additional strike categories. (Event time: publication 19:34 UTC; source: MoD Russia 19:34:34; confidence LOW for all claims; generic imagery, no independent verification.)

Reported situation by area

Volgograd Oblast, Russia (new damage assessment): Dnipro Osint satellite analysis relayed by Exilenova+ (19:13:28) and Оперативний ЗСУ (19:21:04) assesses ~70% of primary crude-processing capacity at the Volgograd Refinery disabled by a 2 October UAV strike. Three units labeled; red dashed damage overlays visible in the satellite image. The 70% figure is attributed to "Harbuz" per Оперативний ЗСУ. No Russian official confirmation of the damage extent is supplied. (Previously reported: no Volgograd refinery entry in the prior SITREP.) Source: Exilenova+ 19:13:28; Оперативний ЗСУ 19:21:04; confidence MEDIUM for strike occurrence and visible damage; LOW for precise capacity-loss percentage.

Kryvyi Rih, Dnipropetropovsk Oblast (new industrial impact): ArcelorMittal Kryvyi Rih enters "cold shutdown" after four missile strikes; 6 killed, 18+ injured claimed per company statement (Операция Z 19:17:04; Colonelcassad 19:35:06). CEO Longobardo quoted. The shutdown process is stated to take ~2 months. (Previously reported: DTEK energy-facility damage in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast on 8–9 October; 11-year-old killed by drone-dropped munition.) Source: Операция Z 19:17:04, Colonelcassad 19:35:06; confidence MEDIUM-HIGH for the shutdown decision; LOW for casualty counts.

Zaporizhzhia, Zaporizhzhia Oblast (updated): OVA head Semikin reports 20 killed, 32 injured from guided aerial bomb strike; three children among the dead (ASTRA 19:27:52). SAR ongoing with heavy machinery and search dog depicted in OVA images. This aligns with the earlier Semikin 20/32 figure and supersedes the prior batch's conflicting Білошицький 18/17/2 count. (Previously reported: conflicting casualty counts; MoD Russia artillery/UAV footage; Дневник Десантника fundraising for Zaporizhzhia-axis UAVs.) Source: ASTRA 19:27:52; confidence MEDIUM for updated figures; LOW for final totals.

Kyiv Oblast (new tracking and alerts): КМВА issued a yellow-level air alert for drone threat at 19:24:51. Повітряні Сили tracked jet UAVs: past Boryspil heading toward Kyiv (19:25:45); toward Makariv from the north (19:26:52); "Hotiv!" alert (19:31:33, settlement name supplied without oblast qualifier); toward Vorzel/Boiarka (19:34:53). Оперативний ЗСУ relayed a Kyiv air alert for UAV threat (19:28:34). No interceptions or impacts reported. (Previously reported: jet UAV toward Yagotin from south 18:57:34; all-clear 18:13:23.) Source: Повітряні Сили 19:25:45–19:34:53; КМВА 19:24:51; confidence HIGH for alert issuance.

Mykolaiv Oblast (new tracking): Повітряні Сили (19:35:47) tracked a jet UAV past Ochakiv heading northwest. No impact reported. (Previously reported: no Mykolaiv entry in prior SITREP.) Source: Повітряні Сили 19:35:47; confidence HIGH for alert issuance.

Kharkiv Oblast (reiterated claim): MoD Russia (19:34:34) reiterates control of Lukashovo and Lobanovka, now attributed to "Sever Group." Generic propaganda graphic; no geolocation, unit confirmation, or Ukrainian acknowledgment. (Previously reported: identical claim at 18:50:30 without unit attribution.) Source: MoD Russia 19:34:34; confidence LOW.

Novorossiysk, Krasnodar Krai, Russia (new): ЦАПЛІЄНКО (19:23:23) video of a drone penetrating air defense and striking a military vessel at the port. No geolocation, vessel ID, or damage assessment. (Previously reported: no Novorossiysk entry.) Source: ЦАПЛІЄНКО 19:23:23; confidence LOW.

Rostov-on-Don, Rostov Oblast (carried forward): NZNP Oil Loading Terminal fire ongoing from overnight (ASTRA 18:20:48, prior batch). No new update in this batch.

Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (carried forward): 11-year-old killed, two children injured by drone-dropped munition (ЦАПЛІЄНКО 18:25:08, prior batch). No new detail.

Areas not mentioned in this batch (southern Kherson frontline, occupied Crimea, Sumy frontline, Luhansk, southern Donetsk beyond prior Velyka Novosilka/Storozhove footage, Poltava/Kremenchuk, Ternopil, Ivano-Frankivsk, Chernihiv, Dnipropetrovsk beyond Kryvyi Rih, Volyn/Lutsk) are not established to be quiet or unchanged.

Reported strikes and air-defense activity

  • Volgograd Refinery (2 October, reported 10 October): UAV strike assessed by Dnipro Osint satellite analysis as disabling ~70% of primary crude-processing capacity across three units (ELOU-AVT-1, AVT-6, AVT-3). Exilenova+ 19:13:28; Оперативний ЗСУ 19:21:04. Confidence MEDIUM for strike and visible damage; LOW for the 70% figure.

  • ArcelorMittal Kryvyi Rih (Dnipropetrovsk Oblast): Four missile strikes claimed as cause of cold shutdown; 6 killed, 18+ injured per company statement. Операция Z 19:17:04; Colonelcassad 19:35:06. Confidence MEDIUM-HIGH for shutdown; LOW for casualty counts.

  • Zaporizhzhia (guided aerial bombs): 20 killed, 32 injured per OVA; three children among dead; SAR ongoing. ASTRA 19:27:52. Confidence MEDIUM for updated figures.

  • Novorossiysk port (Russia): Drone reported penetrating air defense and striking a military vessel. Video from a vessel deck. ЦАПЛІЄНКО 19:23:23. Confidence LOW; no geolocation or vessel ID.

  • Jet UAV tracking, 19:25–19:35 UTC: Повітряні Сили issued alerts: Boryspil→Kyiv (19:25:45); Makariv from north (19:26:52); Hotiv (19:31:33); Vorzel/Boiarka (19:34:53); Ochakiv/Mykolaiv Oblast northwest (19:35:47). КМВА yellow alert 19:24:51; Оперативний ЗСУ Kyiv alert 19:28:34. No interceptions or impacts reported. Confidence HIGH for alert issuance.

  • MoD Russia "Top News Today" claims (19:34:34): Port-infrastructure and vessel strikes; Rubikon Centre and Aerospace Forces destroying UAV control posts; Tornado artillery on manpower areas. Generic imagery; no geolocation. Confidence LOW.

Reported Russian activity

  • MoD Russia territorial claim (Kharkiv Oblast): Sever Group units claimed to have established control over Lukashovo and Lobanovka (19:34:34). Reiterates the 18:50:30 claim with a unit attribution. No combat evidence, geolocation, or Ukrainian confirmation. Confidence LOW.

  • MoD Russia strike summary: Claims of port-infrastructure and vessel strikes, UAV-control-post destruction via Rubikon Centre/Air Force cooperation, and Tornado artillery strikes (19:34:34). Generic propaganda format. Confidence LOW.

  • Russian government fuel-export policy: Colonelcassad (19:15:01) reports the government lifted fuel-export restrictions and approved 500,000 tonnes of diesel for sale abroad at market prices, framing proceeds as funding the war. No primary decree cited. Confidence MEDIUM for the policy change; LOW for the tonnage and budget framing.

  • Colonelcassad ArcelorMittal relay (19:35:06): Reposts the company shutdown statement with editorial commentary ("О, це дило!"). Non-operational.

  • Военкор Котенок (19:33:02): Propaganda post mocking European school violence and Ukraine, using dehumanizing language ("deranged addict elected president," "wide-eyed when Russian Geran hits"). No factual event reported. Assessed as disinformation/intimidation rhetoric.

  • Colonelcassad Trump/Iran framing (19:15:01): Attributes the US purchase of Russian diesel to "the failure of aggression against Iran" hitting the American fuel market. Speculative geopolitical linkage; no evidence supplied. Confidence LOW.

Reported Ukrainian activity

  • Air Force tracking and alerts: Seven new jet-UAV alerts issued between 19:25 and 19:35 UTC across Kyiv Oblast (Boryspil, Makariv, Hotiv, Vorzel/Boiarka) and Mykolaiv Oblast (Ochakiv). КМВА yellow alert 19:24:51. Оперативний ЗСУ Kyiv alert 19:28:34. Confidence HIGH for alert issuance.

  • Foreign Minister Sybiha statement: Rejects Trump's call for new presidential elections; asserts Zelensky's wartime legitimacy and popular sovereignty (РБК-Україна 19:18:18). Confidence HIGH for the statement as relayed.

  • Оперативний ЗСУ Volgograd Refinery relay (19:21:04): Official military-information channel relays Dnipro Osint satellite damage assessment attributed to "Harbuz." Non-operational; informational.

  • ArcelorMittal Kryvyi Rih shutdown: Company decision to enter cold shutdown after four missile strikes, per CEO Longobardo. Reported via Операция Z (19:17:04) and Colonelcassad (19:35:06). The shutdown is a Ukrainian company decision; the strikes causing it are attributed to Russia.

  • Novorossiysk port drone attack: ЦАПЛІЄНКО (19:23:23) video of a drone striking a military vessel. Attribution to Ukrainian forces is implied by the channel's framing but not explicitly stated in the caption. Confidence LOW.

  • Japan SkyFall contract (19:25:58): Japanese Defense Minister Koizumi confirms procurement of Ukrainian interceptor drones from SkyFall. Relayed by ЦАПЛІЄНКО. Confidence HIGH for the ministerial statement; the procurement is a foreign-government action, not a Ukrainian operational activity.

Civilian and infrastructure impact

  • Zaporizhzhia, Zaporizhzhia Oblast: 20 killed, 32 injured per OVA head Semikin following a guided aerial bomb strike on a residential area; three children among the dead, including a family that had fled occupied territory. Multi-story residential building destroyed; SAR ongoing with heavy machinery and search dog (ASTRA 19:27:52). Confidence MEDIUM for updated figures; LOW for final totals. (Previously reported: conflicting counts 20/32 vs. 18/17/2.)

  • ArcelorMittal Kryvyi Rih, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast: Full "cold shutdown" of primary metallurgical production after four missile strikes; 6 workers killed, 18+ injured per company statement; CEO Longobardo quoted that safe work is impossible while the war continues. Shutdown process estimated at ~2 months (Операция Z 19:17:04; Colonelcassad 19:35:06). Confidence MEDIUM-HIGH for the shutdown decision; LOW for casualty counts.

  • Volgograd Refinery, Volgograd Oblast (Russia): ~70% of primary crude-processing capacity assessed as disabled by a 2 October UAV strike across three distillation units (Exilenova+ 19:13:28; Оперативний ЗСУ 19:21:04). Damage is on Russian territory; the capacity figure is an OSINT analytical estimate. Confidence MEDIUM for visible damage; LOW for the 70% figure.

  • Novorossiysk port, Krasnodar Krai (Russia): Drone reported striking a military vessel at the port (ЦАПЛІЄНКО 19:23:23). No damage assessment, vessel identification, or civilian impact reported. Confidence LOW.

  • Rostov-on-Don, Rostov Oblast (carried forward): NZNP Oil Loading Terminal fire ongoing from overnight (ASTRA 18:20:48, prior batch). No new update.

  • Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (carried forward): 11-year-old killed, two children injured by drone-dropped munition (ЦАПЛІЄНКО 18:25:08, prior batch). No new detail.

Information environment and disputed claims

  • Volgograd Refinery 70% figure: The capacity-loss percentage is attributed to "Harbuz" via Оперативний ЗСУ and derived from Dnipro Osint satellite analysis. The embedded analyses in both Exilenova+ and Оперативний ЗСУ posts rate the occurrence as HIGH but the precise percentage as MEDIUM or LOW. No Russian official confirmation of the damage extent is supplied. The Trump meme overlay ("It's an escalation") in both relays is a propaganda/narrative element, not evidence. Repetition of the same Dnipro Osint image across two channels is not independent corroboration. (Confidence MEDIUM for the strike; LOW for the 70% figure.)

  • ArcelorMittal casualty counts: The 6-dead/18-injured figures are attributed to the company by pro-Russian channels (Операция Z, Colonelcassad). The embedded analysis in the Операция Z post notes the shutdown is "factual and widely reported" but flags the casualty numbers as "subject to the source's bias and require verification against official Ukrainian statements." No primary company press release or Ukrainian official confirmation is cited within the supplied messages. (Confidence MEDIUM-HIGH for the shutdown; LOW for the specific casualty counts.)

  • MoD Russia Lukashovo/Lobanovka claim (reiterated): The 19:34:34 post adds "Sever Group" attribution to the earlier 18:50:30 claim but provides no new evidence. The "Top News Today" format uses generic stock imagery. The prior daily report notes a pattern of MoD Russia premature or unsubstantiated control claims (Kiyanytsia, Kupiansk-Vuzlovyi, Kostiantynivka). (Confidence LOW.)

  • Novorossiysk vessel strike: Single-source video from ЦАПЛІЄНКО with no geolocation, vessel identification, or independent corroboration. The caption asserts air-defense penetration; the video shows anti-aircraft fire and an explosion but does not confirm a vessel hit or damage extent. (Confidence LOW.)

  • Colonelcassad Iran/US fuel linkage (19:15:01): The claim that US diesel purchases from Russia are a "consequence of the failure of aggression against Iran" is speculative editorial framing. No evidence of a specific US-Russia diesel deal mechanism is supplied beyond the 500,000-tonne figure. The "Epstein coalition" reference is a known conspiracy-theory framing. (Confidence LOW for the causal link.)

  • Sybiha statement vs. prior Trump remark: The prior batch reported Trump's call for a "new leader" in Ukraine via Colonelcassad (18:15:06) and ТАСС/Miroshnik framing (18:51:00). The new Sybiha response (РБК-Україна 19:18:18) confirms the Ukrainian government's official rejection. The underlying Trump remark remains unverified from a primary transcript in the supplied evidence. (Confidence HIGH for Sybiha's statement; LOW for the original Trump remark's exact wording and context.)

  • Военкор Котенок (19:33:02): Uses dehumanizing language about Ukraine ("deranged addict," "wide-eyed") and conflates unrelated European social issues with the war. No factual event is reported. Assessed as disinformation/intimidation rhetoric. (Confidence LOW; no factual content.)

  • Japan SkyFall contract: The ministerial statement is supported by video of an official setting. The embedded analysis flags the Ukrainian-subtitle translation as a minor verification risk. The framing as "validation of Ukrainian technological superiority" is editorial. The procurement fact itself is assessed HIGH. (Confidence HIGH for the statement; MEDIUM for contract specifics.)

Evidence limitations and unresolved questions

  • Volgograd Refinery: The 70% capacity-loss figure is an OSINT analytical estimate attributed to "Harbuz." No Russian official confirmation, repair-status assessment, or independent satellite review is supplied. The specific 2 October strike's weapon system is not identified beyond "BпЛА" (UAVs). The annual capacities labeled on units (e.g., ELOU-AVT-1 at 7 million t/year) are visible in the image but the refinery's total capacity, needed to validate the 70% percentage, is not independently confirmed in the supplied messages.
  • ArcelorMittal Kryvyi Rih: The four missile strikes' dates, weapon types, and specific damage inventory are not detailed. The 6-dead/18-injured figures are unverified within the supplied messages. The company's own press release or a primary news-agency report is not cited. The "cold shutdown" timeline (~2 months) and the CEO quote are relayed via pro-Russian channels without the original statement text.
  • Zaporizhzhia final casualties: SAR is ongoing; the 20/32 figures are preliminary per OVA. The prior batch's conflicting Білошицький 18/17/2 count has not been formally reconciled or retracted. The exact time of the guided aerial bomb strike is not restated in this batch.
  • Novorossiysk vessel strike: No vessel identification, damage assessment, or confirmation of the strike's success is supplied. The video's geolocation to Novorossiysk is asserted by the caption but not independently verified. Whether the drone penetrated air defense or the explosion resulted from interception debris is unclear from the footage description.
  • Russian diesel-export policy: The 500,000-tonne figure and the government decision are reported by Colonelcassad without a primary decree, ministry release, or international news-agency citation. The relationship to the prior batch's ТАСС partial-lifting report and the MINERVA ZEN tanker track is editorially asserted, not documented.
  • Sybiha statement context: The exact date, venue, and full text of Sybiha's remarks are not supplied. No primary MFA press release or video transcript is cited. The underlying Trump remark remains unverified from a primary source.
  • Japan SkyFall contract: Contract value, quantity, delivery timeline, and specific drone model are not supplied. The video is translated from Japanese; the original transcript is unavailable. No Japanese government press release is cited.
  • MoD Russia port-infrastructure and vessel strike claims: The "Top News Today" summary asserts strikes on port infrastructure and vessels without naming locations, dates, weapon systems, or damage effects. No independent corroboration is supplied.
  • Areas not mentioned in this batch (southern Kherson frontline, occupied Crimea, Sumy frontline, Luhansk, southern Donetsk, Poltava/Kremenchuk, Ternopil, Ivano-Frankivsk, Chernihiv, Volyn/Lutsk, and all oblasts beyond those listed) are not established to be quiet or unchanged.
  • Weather (Open-Meteo, as of 19:30 UTC 10 October): Kharkiv/Vovchansk 9.3 °C mainly clear, wind 0.5 m/s; Luhansk/Svatove 8.8 °C mainly clear, wind 0.8 m/s; Donetsk/Pokrovsk 15.1 °C partly cloudy, wind 0.3 m/s; Zaporizhzhia/Orikhiv 15.6 °C partly cloudy, wind 1.4 m/s; Kherson 16.9 °C partly cloudy, wind 1.3 m/s. Daily forecast: light rain Kharkiv/Vovchansk (precipPmax 80%, 0.4 mm); fog Pokrovsk and Kherson; overcast Svatove and Orikhiv. No tactical implications drawn.
  • Dempster-Shafer belief masses (analytic support only): Highest non-uncertainty mass is "Uncertainty" (0.475). Among substantive hypotheses: "Military Action: Airstrike by Russia on residential building in Zaporizhzhia" (0.031), "Diplomatic Initiative: Rejection of foreign criticism of Zelensky's legitimacy by Ukraine" (0.029), "Military Action: Drone Strike by Ukraine on energy infrastructure in Volgograd Region" (0.027), "Military Action: Missile Strike by Russia on industrial infrastructure in Krivoy Rog" (0.027). These are analytic support only and do not constitute evidence of events.
  • The prior situation report was supplied and used as a historical baseline. The prior daily report was used for broad context.
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