Situation Report

Situation Update (UTC)

Report generated at 2026-10-06 20:07 UTC. All times UTC; source timestamps are publication times, not necessarily event times. A prior situation report and a prior daily report were supplied and are used only as dated historical context. A belief model was supplied and is used only as analytic support, not as evidence.

Key reported developments

• Sumy, Sumy Oblast — reported fatal drone attack near a shopping centre: Sumy Oblast Military Administration head Oleh Hryhorov, relayed by ASTRA, reported that a Russian drone struck people near a shopping centre in Kovpakovskyi district of Sumy that evening, killing one person and injuring two others, with information on the injured still being clarified. (event time described only as "this evening"; source timestamp 2026-10-06 19:42:30, source: ASTRA relaying Sumy OVA; confidence MEDIUM for issuance, LOW for casualty detail)
• Off Sochi, Krasnodar Krai, Russia — tanker fire reported still burning: Multiple Russian-language posts reported continued open burning of oil in the Black Sea after an attack on the Liberia-flagged tanker AFRAMAX RIO. Russia's Ministry of Transport, relayed by Alex Parker Returns, stated firefighting would begin once the fire's intensity declines; Операция Z relayed the ministry's account of a USV (uncrewed boat) attack, no reported injuries, a 23-member crew, all Indian citizens, saved, Sirius beaches closed to visitors, and no exceedance of pollutant norms near Sirius; Военкор Котенок relayed the ministry attributing the attack to Ukrainian USVs and reporting all aboard evacuated; Рыбарь reported the vessel was carrying crude oil from Novorossiysk to India, described eyewitness accounts of a "medium-strength" explosion, and noted an alternative version of a UAV attack. (event time not stated; source timestamps 2026-10-06 19:38:45, 19:46:16, 19:47:17, 19:49:10; confidence MEDIUM for issuance, LOW for attribution and for claimed effects)
• Ukraine — renewed jet-drone ("reactor UAV") warnings: Ukraine's Air Force reported new jet-propelled UAVs in northern Chernihiv Oblast heading toward Slavutych (source timestamp 19:47:06), jet UAVs from the Black Sea toward Ochakiv (source timestamp 19:53:26), and a jet UAV past Irpin toward Kyiv (source timestamp 20:00:41). These are threat notices; no impact or interception was reported. (event time not stated; source: Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine; confidence HIGH for issuance)
• Kyiv, Ukraine — air alert declared: КМВА (Kyiv City Military Administration) announced a yellow danger level and an air-raid alert "due to a drone threat," urging residents to shelters (source timestamp 19:59:56); Оперативний ЗСУ separately relayed that an air alert was declared in Kyiv over a UAV threat (source timestamp 20:04:23). (event time not stated; confidence HIGH for issuance)
• Sevastopol — claimed air alert: Colonelcassad posted a claim of an air alert in Sevastopol with a generic warning graphic and instructions to remain calm, follow safety measures and not film air-defense activity. No official issuer, geolocation or timestamp is contained in the post. (event time not stated; source timestamp 2026-10-06 19:55:01; confidence LOW)
• Latvia–Belarus border area — competing relays of a reported incursion: Alex Parker Returns relayed a claim attributed to the Latvian Armed Forces that a group from Belarus first threatened Latvian troops while trying to force at least 20 illegal migrants across the border, then hours later an armed group crossed into Latvia, damaged a distribution panel and stole surveillance cameras; the post was accompanied by a staged/meme-style portrait with no evidentiary value (source timestamps 19:41:36 and 19:41:37). ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS relayed a similar account attributed to LSM, with a still image of generic Latvian border infrastructure (source timestamps 19:50:09 and 19:50:10). (event time not stated; confidence LOW — single-source relays of a national account, not independently corroborated here)
• Ukraine — pro-Russian map claims for three sectors: Colonelcassad posted a three-image map album from the pro-Russian mapping project Z-komitet / karta-svo.rf (watermark @z_arhiv), captioned as an update of the Velykoburluk sector, the Zaporizhzhia direction, and a data correction for the Sumy direction, listing named settlements in each. All three maps carry the date 6 October 2025, a year before the post's date; the album contains no geolocated evidence, unit sourcing or Ukrainian General Staff citation. (source timestamps 2026-10-06 19:40:33 and 19:40:34; confidence LOW)
• Kyiv, Ukraine — reported detentions of protest participants: STERNENKO reported that Mykhailo Denysenko, described as another participant of the protest at Teremky, was detained in Kyiv, citing the NGO "Hetmanskyi Korpus" and activist Dmytro Perov; the account states he was detained on the street without explanation or concrete charges, that his phone was taken and contact with him was lost, and that contact with three other activists could not be established. (event time not stated; source timestamp 2026-10-06 19:55:54; confidence LOW — single-source relay of activist accounts)

Reported situation by area

• Sumy, Sumy Oblast (new evidence): The batch adds an official oblast-administration account, relayed by ASTRA, of one person killed and two injured in a drone strike near a shopping centre in Kovpakovskyi district, described as occurring "this evening." This is a new account for a distinct time window; the source does not state whether it revises or is additional to the Sumy high-rise strike and casualty figures carried in the prior situation report and daily report. Both readings remain unestablished. (source: ASTRA, source timestamp 2026-10-06 19:42:30; confidence MEDIUM for issuance, LOW for detail)
• Off Sochi / Sirius, Krasnodar Krai, Russia (new evidence): The batch adds multiple Russian-language relays of the Ministry of Transport's account of the AFRAMAX RIO attack and continuing fire, plus Рыбарь's description of the vessel's route (Novorossiysk to India) and local access restrictions. The attack method is described inconsistently as USVs and, in Рыбарь's account, also as a possible UAV strike. Vessel identity, cargo, attack method and environmental effects remain drawn from official Russian statements or partisan reporting and are not independently verified in this batch. (sources: Alex Parker Returns 19:38:45; Операция Z 19:46:16; Рыбарь 19:47:17; Военкор Котенок 19:49:10; confidence MEDIUM for issuance, LOW for attribution)
• Velykoburluk (Kharkiv Oblast), Zaporizhzhia direction and Sumy direction (new, claim only): The Colonelcassad map album asserts Russian control and transfers in these sectors and a "correction" for Sumy, but is self-produced, single-source, undated to the current year, and unaccompanied by geolocated verification. It is a claim about narrative shaping, not established ground truth. (source: Colonelcassad, source timestamps 2026-10-06 19:40:33 and 19:40:34; confidence LOW)
• Barvinivka area, Zaporizhzhia direction (new, claim only): Воин DV posted video captioned as FPV drone operators of the 5th Separate Guards Tank Brigade, 36th Army, "East" group of forces, striking Ukrainian personnel on the Zaporizhzhia direction while advancing toward Barvinivka. Unit attribution, location and date are unverified from the footage itself. (source timestamp 2026-10-06 20:02:15; confidence MEDIUM for the depicted strike-type footage, LOW for unit and location attribution)
• Lyman area, Donetsk Oblast (new, claim only): Оперативний ЗСУ posted a video captioned as Ukrainian drone pilots of the 53rd Separate Mechanized Brigade striking Russian infantry in the Lyman area forests. The relay itself assesses the footage as genuine but the specific kill attribution as unverifiable without geolocation or third-party confirmation. (source timestamp 2026-10-06 20:00:01; confidence MEDIUM for the unit branding shown, LOW for the claimed effect)
• Carried forward from the prior situation report (not refreshed in this batch): The Tu-160 takeoff notice from "Belaya" and the approximately 03:00 potential airspace-entry estimate, the earlier Sochi tanker status (crew ashore, coastal access restriction, Sirius air-quality statement), and the earlier Latvia MVD border-incident relay remain as previously reported and are not updated here. Silence in this batch does not establish that any of them is unchanged.
• Areas absent from this batch: No new direct evidence was supplied for Kharkiv city, Kupiansk, Pokrovsk, Kostiantynivka, Kherson, Dnipro, Kryvyi Rih, Nikopol or Zaporizhzhia city reporting. This is an evidence gap, not a statement that those areas are quiet.

Reported strikes and air-defense activity

• Sumy drone strike (new, official Ukrainian account): The Sumy OVA account describes a Russian drone attacking people near a shopping centre in Kovpakovskyi district, with one killed and two injured. Impact location and munition type are attributed to the oblast administration and are not independently verified here. (source: ASTRA relaying Sumy OVA, source timestamp 2026-10-06 19:42:30; confidence MEDIUM for issuance, LOW for detail)
• Sochi-area tanker firefighting (new): The Ministry of Transport account, relayed by two Russian-language posts, states that open burning of oil is continuing in the Black Sea and that suppression will begin once the fire's intensity declines. The ministry, per Военкор Котенок, attributes the attack to Ukrainian USVs; no independent confirmation of the attack method was supplied. (sources: Alex Parker Returns 19:38:45; Военкор Котенок 19:49:10; confidence MEDIUM for issuance, LOW for attribution)
• Ukrainian jet-UAV warnings (new): The Air Force issued three notices in this batch — jet UAVs in northern Chernihiv Oblast toward Slavutych, jet UAVs from the Black Sea toward Ochakiv, and a jet UAV past Irpin toward Kyiv. These are assessed-threat notices; no impacts, interceptions or damage are reported. (source: Повітряні Сили ЗС України, source timestamps 19:47:06, 19:53:26, 20:00:41; confidence HIGH for issuance)
• Kyiv and Sevastopol alerts (new): Kyiv's city military administration declared a drone-threat air alert; Colonelcassad posted an unverified Sevastopol air-alert claim. Neither post reports an impact, interception or damage. (sources: КМВА 19:59:56; Оперативний ЗСУ 20:04:23; Colonelcassad 19:55:01; confidence HIGH for the Kyiv notice's issuance, LOW for the Sevastopol claim)
• Ulyanovsk Oblast, Russia — claimed drone-danger alert (new): Треш Ульяновск 😱 posted a claim that a drone-danger alert was declared in Ulyanovsk Oblast, illustrated only by a generic yellow-and-black "БЕСПИЛОТНАЯ ОПАСНОСТЬ" graphic and a link to a max.ru channel. No settlement, district, issuer or time is given, and the relay notes the graphic is not incident imagery. (source timestamp 2026-10-06 19:51:54; confidence LOW)
• No interception or launch totals: No Ukrainian air-defense interception totals, no Russian MoD overnight interception figures and no confirmation or denial of cruise-missile launch were supplied in this batch.

Reported Russian activity

• Russian Ministry of Transport statements (new): Relayed accounts describe a USV attack on the Liberia-flagged tanker AFRAMAX RIO off Sochi, a crew of 23 Indian citizens saved with no reported injuries, continuing open burning of oil, and firefighting to begin when intensity subsides; the ministry's own statements are the source of the attack attribution in these relays. (sources: Alex Parker Returns 19:38:45; Операция Z 19:46:16; Военкор Котенок 19:49:10; confidence MEDIUM for issuance, LOW for attribution)
• Pro-Russian map publication (new): Colonelcassad's album asserts Russian control and transfers in the Velykoburluk sector, the Zaporizhzhia direction, and a correction on the Sumy direction. It is a single partisan mapping source without independent corroboration or geolocated evidence. (source: Colonelcassad, source timestamps 2026-10-06 19:40:33 and 19:40:34; confidence LOW)
• Russian FPV strike claim (new): Воин DV, captioned on behalf of operators of the 5th Separate Guards Tank Brigade (36th Army, "East" group), claims strikes on Ukrainian personnel on the Zaporizhzhia direction while advancing toward Barvinivka. (source timestamp 2026-10-06 20:02:15; confidence MEDIUM for footage type, LOW for attribution and effect)
• Russian partisan commentary (new): НгП раZVедка posted "Пора понерфить Киев" — advocacy language with no factual event content. (source timestamp 2026-10-06 19:58:29; confidence LOW)
• Russian veterans-adaptation messaging (new): Colonelcassad described a new program direction by the All-Russian Association for the Development of Local Self-Government, working with the "Defenders of the Fatherland" foundation and the State Council, to channel discharged personnel into rehabilitation, retraining, employment and local-government roles. This is domestic program messaging, not a battlefield report. (source timestamp 2026-10-06 20:01:43; confidence MEDIUM for issuance, LOW for program detail)
• Russian-aligned fundraising appeals (new): Два майора posted a video appeal for reconnaissance equipment on the Kupyansk direction (4 Matrice 4T drones, 5 FPV monitors, 4 repeaters, 20 batteries, UAV equipment, 4 laptops), claiming a total need of 2,910,000 RUB, 334,645 RUB collected in 24 hours, 464,481 RUB collected overall, 2,445,519 RUB remaining, and 571 participants in 24 hours, with payment routes including a personal bank card (source timestamps 19:50:21 and 19:50:22). Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 posted a separate short donation appeal for VDV personnel with a phone number (source timestamp 20:01:01). Financial and equipment claims are self-reported and unverified. (confidence LOW)

Reported Ukrainian activity

• Air Force threat notices (new): The Air Force issued jet-UAV warnings for northern Chernihiv Oblast (toward Slavutych), the Black Sea (toward Ochakiv) and past Irpin toward Kyiv. (source: Повітряні Сили ЗС України, source timestamps 19:47:06, 19:53:26, 20:00:41; confidence HIGH for issuance)
• Kyiv civil-defense notice (new): КМВА announced a yellow danger level and an air alert over a drone threat and urged residents to shelters. (source timestamp 2026-10-06 19:59:56; confidence HIGH for issuance)
• Sumy Oblast administration casualty account (new): Oleh Hryhorov, via ASTRA, reported one killed and two injured in Kovpakovskyi district of Sumy after a drone attack near a shopping centre. (source timestamp 2026-10-06 19:42:30; confidence MEDIUM for issuance, LOW for detail)
• Ukrainian FPV strike claim (new): Оперативний ЗСУ relayed footage attributed to drone pilots of the 53rd Separate Mechanized Brigade striking Russian infantry in Lyman-area forests; the relay's own assessment treats unit branding as visible but the specific effect as unverified. (source timestamp 2026-10-06 20:00:01; confidence MEDIUM for branding, LOW for effect)
• Media relay on EU sanctions (new): РБК-Україна relayed Reuters as reporting that EU ambassadors are expected to consider a new Russia sanctions package, with around 1,650 new sanctions listings, most focused on the military-industrial complex, described as the largest since the February 2022 full-scale invasion and proposed by the European External Action Service. No Reuters URL or EU primary document was supplied in the post, and the relay's own assessment flags the terminology as potentially ambiguous. (source timestamps 19:53:23 and 19:53:24; confidence MEDIUM for the relay's plausibility, LOW as unconfirmed until a primary source is located)
• Unit social-media post (new): WarArchive posted a dusk photo credited to the 72nd Separate Mechanized Brigade named after the Black Zaporozhians, showing a soldier with a heavy machine gun, with a good-night caption. No date or location is established. (source timestamps 20:04:23 and 20:04:24; confidence MEDIUM for the embedded credit, LOW for currency and location)
• Activist account of detentions (new): STERNENKO relayed NGO and activist claims that Mykhailo Denysenko was detained in Kyiv over the Teremky protest, with his phone taken and contact lost, and that three other activists were unreachable. (source timestamp 2026-10-06 19:55:54; confidence LOW)

Civilian and infrastructure impact

• Sumy, Sumy Oblast: One person reported killed and two injured near a shopping centre in Kovpakovskyi district, per the oblast administration relayed by ASTRA; details of the injured were still being clarified at publication. (source timestamp 2026-10-06 19:42:30; confidence MEDIUM for issuance, LOW for detail)
• Sochi and Sirius, Krasnodar Krai, Russia: Sirius beaches were reported closed to visitors; residents and guests were asked to avoid prolonged time outdoors and not to open windows; authorities stated there is no exceedance of pollutant norms in the Sirius area, and that water and air monitoring was being conducted with Roshydromet. Open burning of oil at sea was reported as continuing, with suppression to begin once intensity declines. Environmental and tourism effects are described by the sources but not independently quantified in this batch. (sources: Операция Z 19:46:16; Рыбарь 19:47:17; Alex Parker Returns 19:38:45; confidence MEDIUM for issuance, LOW for extent and for the air-quality assurance)
• Kyiv, Ukraine: An air alert over a drone threat was declared for the city, with residents directed to shelters. No impact or damage was reported. (source: КМВА, source timestamp 19:59:56; confidence HIGH for issuance)
• Sevastopol and Ulyanovsk Oblast: Alert claims were posted with generic warning graphics and no reported impact or damage; neither claim is independently corroborated. (sources: Colonelcassad 19:55:01; Треш Ульяновск 19:51:54; confidence LOW)
• Latvia–Belarus border area: The relayed accounts describe an attempted crossing by at least 20 migrants, threats to Latvian personnel by armed escorts, and a later intrusion in which a distribution panel was reportedly damaged and cameras stolen. Reported damage is attributed to the relayed national accounts and is not independently verified here. (sources: Alex Parker Returns 19:41:36; ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS 19:50:09; confidence LOW)
• Supplied weather context (time-qualified): As of 2026-10-06T20:00 UTC, supplied observations give Kharkiv/Vovchansk 13.0°C, partly cloudy, wind 1.6 m/s, cloud 60%, 0.0 mm precipitation; Luhansk/Svatove 13.4°C, partly cloudy, wind 1.8 m/s, cloud 81%, 0.0 mm; Donetsk/Pokrovsk 10.8°C, clear, wind 1.0 m/s, cloud 0%, 0.0 mm; Zaporizhzhia/Orikhiv 8.7°C, clear, wind 0.9 m/s, cloud 0%, 0.0 mm; Kherson/Kherson 14.2°C, overcast, wind 0.8 m/s, cloud 84%, 0.0 mm. The supplied daily forecast also lists for 2026-10-06 maximum wind speeds of 4.2 m/s (Kharkiv/Vovchansk), 4.0 m/s (Luhansk/Svatove), 3.0 m/s (Donetsk/Pokrovsk), 2.7 m/s (Zaporizhzhia/Orikhiv) and 1.6 m/s (Kherson/Kherson), with fog coded for the Zaporizhzhia/Orikhiv point. These readings cover five reference points only and do not establish conditions at Sumy, Sochi, Sevastopol, Ulyanovsk, the Latvian border area or other locations in this batch. (source: supplied weather context, timestamp 2026-10-06T20:00 UTC; confidence HIGH for the supplied observations)

Information environment and disputed claims

• Sochi tanker narrative contest: Russian official statements describe a USV attack, a rescued 23-member Indian crew, no injuries and continuing firefighting; a second Russian-language account (Рыбарь) acknowledges an alternative UAV-attack version, cites eyewitness accounts of a "medium-strength" explosion, notes that the regional MChS declined comment and that the Sochi mayor's office redirected questions to the Ministry of Transport, and observes that official channels were slow to respond. The attack attribution remains an official Russian claim and is not independently verified in this batch. (sources: Операция Z 19:46:16; Рыбарь 19:47:17; Военкор Котенок 19:49:10; Alex Parker Returns 19:38:45; confidence LOW)
• Pro-Russian map with a year mismatch: The Colonelcassad album presents three maps all dated 6 October 2025 while posted on 6 October 2026, with a "correction" for the Sumy direction that cannot be checked without a prior version. The accompanying assessment notes that "transferred" shading may overstate gains and that grey-zone designations may mask uncertainty. (source: Colonelcassad, source timestamps 2026-10-06 19:40:33 and 19:40:34; confidence LOW)
• Latvia border claim paired with non-evidentiary imagery: Both relays of the reported border incursion use imagery that does not document the claim — a staged/meme-style paramilitary portrait in one case and a generic Latvian border sign in the other. The Belarus-directed partisan term "Belomoskovia" appears in the earlier relay carried in the prior situation report; the current relays attribute their accounts to Latvia's armed forces and to LSM respectively, without providing links or official documents. (sources: Alex Parker Returns 19:41:36 and 19:41:37; ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS 19:50:09 and 19:50:10; confidence LOW)
• Generic warning graphics used for alert claims: The Sevastopol air-alert post by Colonelcassad and the Ulyanovsk drone-danger post both rely on reusable warning placards rather than incident imagery, official issuers or timestamps; the Ulyanovsk post's own assessment flags the graphic as reusable and the max.ru link as unverified in authority. (sources: Colonelcassad 19:55:01; Треш Ульяновск 19:51:54; confidence LOW)
• Partisan commentary and fundraising cues: НгП раZVедка's "Пора понерфить Киев" is advocacy with no factual content. The Два майора and Дневник Десантника posts combine patriotic framing with urgent appeals; the Два майора relay's own assessment flags a personal bank card, public QR links and the absence of foundation documentation or itemized receipts as verification concerns. (sources: НгП раZVедка 19:58:29; Два майора 19:50:21 and 19:50:22; Дневник Десантника 20:01:01; confidence LOW for content reliability)
• Sanctions relay with second-hand attribution: The РБК-Україна post cites Reuters for an expected EU sanctions package and a figure of around 1,650 new listings; no Reuters link, article screenshot or EU document appears in the supplied content, the timing is given in relative terms ("tomorrow," "Wednesday"), and the relay's own assessment notes terminology ambiguity that could make the figure misleading if read literally. (source: РБК-Україна, source timestamps 19:53:23 and 19:53:24; confidence MEDIUM for plausibility, LOW as unverified)
• Latvian persona non grata item: SOTA reported that Latvia's Foreign Ministry intends to declare another Russian citizen persona non grata, naming journalist Leonid Ragozin as the presumed individual, via statements attributed to Foreign Minister Baiba Braže and Interior Minister Jānis Dombrava. This concerns Latvia's domestic measures and is not battlefield reporting on the Russo-Ukrainian war. (source timestamp 2026-10-06 20:03:01; confidence LOW for details)
• Out-of-theatre item: ТАСС relayed The Intercept, citing the US administration, as reporting that the United States may never restore its military presence in the Middle East because key bases were seriously damaged, with dozens of military aircraft damaged or destroyed, including four F-15 fighters, 12 KC-135 tankers and 30 MQ-9 Reaper drones. This is unrelated to the Russo-Ukrainian war and is not verified here. (source timestamp 2026-10-06 19:38:08; confidence LOW)
• Analytic support (not evidence): The supplied belief model assigns 0.74 to "Uncertainty," with the remaining mass split among hypotheses of Ukrainian information-warfare propaganda effort (0.08), morale boost for Ukraine (0.08) and their combination (0.10). This is a model output about the character of the batch, not a fact about events and not independent corroboration of any claim.

Evidence limitations and unresolved questions

• Sumy strike: The account establishes only that an oblast official was relayed as reporting one killed and two injured near a shopping centre in Kovpakovskyi district. It does not establish whether this is the same incident as the previously reported Sumy high-rise strike, nor a revised total; munition type, exact location and the identities of the injured are unverified.
• Sochi tanker incident: Vessel identity, flag, cargo, attack method and casualty status remain drawn from Russian official statements or partisan relays. The batch adds a route description (Novorossiysk to India) and an alternative UAV-attack version, but supplies no primary documents, AIS data, geolocated imagery or independent pollution measurements; the accuracy of the "no exceedance" air-quality statement and the extent of any spill are not established.
• Air-threat notices and alerts: The Air Force notices and the Kyiv alert establish only that warnings were issued. The Sevastopol and Ulyanovsk alert claims have no identified official issuer, geolocation or timestamp in the supplied content, and no impacts, interceptions or damage were reported for any of them.
• Ground claims: The Velykoburluk/Zaporizhzhia/Sumy map album, the Воин DV Barvinivka claim and the 53rd Mechanized Brigade Lyman claim are all single-source, without geolocation, dated imagery or independent confirmation; no territorial change is established by this batch.
• Latvia border incident: Both relays are single-source accounts of a national ministry or media report; no primary Latvian document, casualty information, exact location or time was supplied, and the accompanying imagery does not document the alleged events.
• Financial and program claims: The fundraising totals, equipment lists and participant counts are self-reported, and the veterans-adaptation program description is domestic messaging; neither is independently verified.
• Prior baseline items not refreshed: The earlier Tu-160 takeoff notice and its approximately 03:00 potential airspace-entry estimate, the earlier Sochi tanker crew-ashore and coastal-access reports, the prior Sumy high-rise accounts, the Bulgarian-waters vessel accounts and ALFA WATAN crew status, the Ukrainian General Staff summary figures, and the various ground-control claims in the prior daily report remain as previously reported and are neither updated nor corroborated by this batch.
• Absent corroboration: No Russian MoD front-line bulletin, no Ukrainian General Staff operational summary for this window, no interception totals and no independent sector map was supplied. The absence of a sector from this batch is not evidence that it is unchanged.
• Weather: The supplied context provides time-qualified numeric observations only for five reference points as of 2026-10-06T20:00 UTC and a one-day forecast for those same points; it does not establish conditions at Sumy, Sochi, Sevastopol, Ulyanovsk, the Latvian border area or other locations in this batch.