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Historical intelligence

Situation Report

Archived operational intelligence briefing retained for historical analysis.

Intelligence brief / archived issue

Situation Update (UTC)

Key reported developments

  • Kyiv city — Southern Bridge: Mayor Vitali Klitschko, relayed by Оперативний ЗСУ, РБК-Україна and STERNENKO, said a preliminary drone impact damaged the bridge support, guardrail, road surface and the metro’s protective concrete barrier; metro and surface public transport across the bridge are halted, and metro specialists are de-energizing the rail track. ASTRA reported Klitschko saying the bridge was attacked for the second time in a day and that no casualties were reported; Russian channel Военкор Котенок claimed a third Geran UAV strike. (event time not stated; sources: Оперативний ЗСУ, 2026-10-01 19:20:33; РБК-Україна, 2026-10-01 19:20:39; STERNENKO, 2026-10-01 19:21:56; ASTRA, 2026-10-01 19:18:09; Военкор Котенок, 2026-10-01 18:59:47; confidence MEDIUM for official damage/transport statements, LOW for strike count)
  • Kharkiv city, Kharkiv Oblast — Kyivskyi district: Oleh Syniehubov, head of the Kharkiv Oblast Military Administration, said an “enemy strike” hit Kyivskyi district, emergency services are on reinforced duty and consequences are being clarified. Mayor Ihor Terekhov said another drone hit an administrative building in Kyivskyi district, with consequences being clarified. (event time not stated; sources: Олег Синєгубов, 2026-10-01 18:58:41; Ігор Терехов, 2026-10-01 19:05:05; confidence MEDIUM for both official statements)
  • Ukraine-wide — General Staff operational report: Ukraine’s General Staff, in its 22:00 30.09.2026 update, claimed 173 combat clashes, 63 air strikes, 187 guided bombs, 3,994 kamikaze drones and 1,844 shellings of settlements and positions over the day; it listed assaults on Southern-Slobozhansk, Lyman, Sloviansk, Kostiantynivka, Pokrovsk, Oleksandrivka, Huliaipole and Orikhiv axes, and claimed 56 Russian personnel killed and 8 wounded on the Pokrovsk axis. (event period stated as 30.09.2026 up to 22:00; source: Генеральний штаб ЗСУ, 2026-10-01 19:11:02; confidence MEDIUM for publication, LOW for figures/outcomes)
  • Kharkiv Oblast — Russian capture claims: The Russian Defence Ministry’s Telegram account posted a graphic claiming Russian troops captured Nesternoye, Rublenoye and Vysokaya Yaruga, Kharkiv Oblast, “TODAY,” without geolocated evidence or unit details. A pro-Russian channel separately posted drone footage claiming Russian servicemen raised flags in Vysokaya Yaruga and controlled residential buildings, with coordinates and a claimed advance of about 2 km from the demarcation line; the caption date read 01.10.26 while the video timestamp read 2024.09.13. (event time described as “TODAY”; sources: MoD Russia, 2026-10-01 19:20:19; Сливочный каприз, 2026-10-01 19:13:14; confidence LOW / UNCONFIRMED)
  • Anninsky District, Voronezh Oblast, Russia — Mi-8 crash claim: Russian milblogger Военкор Котенок and Операция Z relayed claims that a Russian Mi-8 helicopter crashed in Anninsky District and that all three crew members died. ASTRA also reported Telegram channels claiming three military deaths, explicitly stated there was no official confirmation, and noted its attached photo did not show a crash. (event time not stated; sources: Военкор Котенок, 2026-10-01 19:14:52; Операция Z, 2026-10-01 19:17:01; ASTRA, 2026-10-01 19:03:53; confidence LOW / UNCONFIRMED)
  • Russia — Rybar daily digest claims: Pro-Kremlin Rybar channel, in a digest for SolovievLive, claimed Ukrainian F-16s are increasingly idle due to repair and spare-parts shortages, with Belgian servicing after 300 flight hours said to take up to 10 months; claimed Russian military spending is growing while education and social funding cuts are discussed; and claimed Russian border guards detained the Cyprus-flagged vessel Västerbotten bound for Sillamäe in Russian territorial waters, with Estonian confirmation asserted. The attached thumbnail also teased “Southern Bridge again under attack” and “seizing ships can be us too.” (event time described as 1 October digest; source: Рыбарь, 2026-10-01 18:59:38 and 18:59:39; confidence LOW / UNCONFIRMED)
  • Ukraine — National Guard promotion: Оперативний ЗСУ reported that Colonel Ihor Obolenskyi, commander of the 2nd KNGU “Khartiya,” was promoted to brigadier general, with a photo of a uniformed man whose name tape matched. No official decree, ceremony details or visible general’s insignia were supplied. (event time not stated; source: Оперативний ЗСУ, 2026-10-01 19:02:05; confidence MEDIUM for identity/unit context, LOW for promotion confirmation)
  • Donetsk and Kherson oblasts — Russian milblogger strike claims: Военкор Котенок claimed Russian “South” grouping fiber-optic FPV drones destroyed a Ukrainian T-80BV near Druzhkivka, Donetsk Oblast, hitting the engine-transmission compartment and burning it; separately claimed Russian Aerospace Forces struck temporary deployment points in occupied Kherson. Дом Осинтеров claimed destruction of a Ukrainian field warehouse near Dementievka, Kharkiv Oblast, with coordinates, but the attached image showed trench terrain and no visible strike damage. (event times not stated; sources: Военкор Котенок, 2026-10-01 19:14:10 and 19:19:00; Дом Осинтеров, 2026-10-01 19:19:08; confidence LOW / UNCONFIRMED)

Reported situation by area

  • Kyiv city: New evidence consists of official Ukrainian statements that a preliminary drone impact damaged the Southern Bridge support, guardrail, road surface and metro protective barrier, and that metro and surface transport across the bridge are halted. ASTRA relayed Klitschko saying the bridge was attacked twice in a day and no casualties were reported; Russian channels claimed a second or third strike. Previously reported baseline had earlier strikes on the same bridge; this batch adds specific official damage and transport-disruption details. Event times and independent geolocation remain absent. (sources: Оперативний ЗСУ, 2026-10-01 19:20:33; РБК-Україна, 2026-10-01 19:20:39; STERNENKO, 2026-10-01 19:21:56; ASTRA, 2026-10-01 19:18:09; confidence MEDIUM for official statements, LOW for strike count)
  • Kharkiv city and Kharkiv Oblast: Syniehubov reported an enemy strike on Kyivskyi district and Terekhov reported another drone hit an administrative building in the same district, with consequences still being clarified. The General Staff listed five Russian assaults near Vovchansk, Chaikivka and toward Mala Vovcha on the Southern-Slobozhansk axis. Russian MoD and a pro-Russian channel claimed control or flag-raising in Nesternoye, Rublenoye and Vysokaya Yaruga; the Vysokaya Yaruga item carried a date inconsistency. A pro-Russian channel also claimed destruction of a Ukrainian field warehouse near Dementievka. (sources: Олег Синєгубов, 2026-10-01 18:58:41; Ігор Терехов, 2026-10-01 19:05:05; Генеральний штаб ЗСУ, 2026-10-01 19:11:02; MoD Russia, 2026-10-01 19:20:19; Сливочный каприз, 2026-10-01 19:13:14; Дом Осинтеров, 2026-10-01 19:19:08; confidence MEDIUM for official Ukrainian statements, LOW for Russian claims)
  • Donetsk Oblast: The General Staff reported repelled or ongoing clashes on the Lyman axis near Nadiia, Novoselivka and Dibrova; six stopped Russian attempts on the Sloviansk axis near Ozerne, Yampil, Kryva Luka and toward Pyskunivka; 22 repelled assaults on the Kostiantynivka axis near Kostiantynivka, Novoselivka, Illinivka, Sofiyivka, Vilne and toward Osykove and Hruzke; and 24 repelled attacks on the Pokrovsk axis near Krasnopodillia, Novyi Donbas, Bilytske, Svitlе, Vodianske, Molodetske and toward Hannivka, Dobropillia, Novohryshyne and Serhiivka. A Russian milblogger claimed a Ukrainian T-80BV was destroyed near Druzhkivka. No independent verification was supplied. (source: Генеральний штаб ЗСУ, 2026-10-01 19:11:02; Военкор Котенок, 2026-10-01 19:14:10; confidence MEDIUM for General Staff publication, LOW for outcomes)
  • Zaporizhzhia Oblast: The General Staff reported two Russian assaults on the Huliaipole axis near Huliaipole and three attacks on the Orikhiv axis toward Prymorske. A Russian fundraising post referenced the Zaporizhzhia direction. No other new area-level reporting was supplied. (sources: Генеральний штаб ЗСУ, 2026-10-01 19:11:02; Дневник Десантника🇷🇺, 2026-10-01 19:02:24; confidence LOW for outcomes)
  • Kherson Oblast: A Russian milblogger claimed Russian Aerospace Forces conducted a missile-bomb strike on temporary deployment points of Ukrainian units in occupied Kherson. The General Staff said no offensive actions occurred on the Prydniprovsk axis. No independent verification was supplied. (source: Военкор Котенок, 2026-10-01 19:19:00; confidence LOW / UNCONFIRMED)
  • Voronezh Oblast, Russia: Russian channels and ASTRA reported claims of a Mi-8 helicopter crash in Anninsky District with three crew members killed. ASTRA explicitly said there was no official confirmation and that its attached photo did not show a crash. (sources: Военкор Котенок, 2026-10-01 19:14:52; Операция Z, 2026-10-01 19:17:01; ASTRA, 2026-10-01 19:03:53; confidence LOW / UNCONFIRMED)
  • Moscow Oblast, Russia: TASS, citing operational services, reported a fire in Krasnozavodsk with five people unaccounted for and a fire area of 1,000 m². No connection to the war was stated. (source: ТАСС, 2026-10-01 19:07:41; confidence MEDIUM for the official emergency-services statement)
  • Other areas: No new supported area-level ground reporting appears in this batch for Luhansk, Sumy, Poltava, Chernihiv, Odesa, Mykolaiv, Dnipropetrovsk beyond an air alert, or most other sectors. Silence here does not establish that those areas were unchanged.

Reported strikes and air-defense activity

  • Kyiv city — Southern Bridge: Official Ukrainian statements describe a preliminary drone impact that damaged the bridge support, guardrail, road surface and metro protective concrete barrier; metro and surface transport are halted, and rail track is being de-energized. ASTRA relayed Klitschko saying this was the second attack on the bridge in a day and no casualties were reported; Russian channels claimed a second or third strike. No official weapon identification beyond “drone,” independent geolocation, or structural assessment was supplied. (sources: Оперативний ЗСУ, 2026-10-01 19:20:33; РБК-Україна, 2026-10-01 19:20:39; STERNENKO, 2026-10-01 19:21:56; ASTRA, 2026-10-01 19:18:09; Военкор Котенок, 2026-10-01 18:59:47; confidence MEDIUM for official statements, LOW for strike count and damage extent)
  • Kharkiv city: Official Ukrainian accounts reported an enemy strike on Kyivskyi district and a separate drone hit on an administrative building in Kyivskyi district; consequences and casualties were not provided. (sources: Олег Синєгубов, 2026-10-01 18:58:41; Ігор Терехов, 2026-10-01 19:05:05; confidence MEDIUM for statements, LOW for effects)
  • Kherson Oblast: A Russian milblogger claimed a Russian Aerospace Forces missile-bomb strike on temporary deployment points of Ukrainian units and formations in occupied Kherson. No supporting imagery or independent confirmation was supplied. (source: Военкор Котенок, 2026-10-01 19:19:00; confidence LOW / UNCONFIRMED)
  • Druzhkivka, Donetsk Oblast: A Russian milblogger claimed fiber-optic FPV drones destroyed a Ukrainian T-80BV, striking the engine-transmission compartment and burning it. No video frames or independent verification were available in the supplied material. (source: Военкор Котенок, 2026-10-01 19:14:10; confidence LOW / UNCONFIRMED)
  • Dementievka, Kharkiv Oblast: A pro-Russian channel claimed destruction of a Ukrainian field warehouse at coordinates 50.23016, 36.28428. The supplied image showed trench terrain and an annotated point, with no visible strike damage. (source: Дом Осинтеров, 2026-10-01 19:19:08; confidence LOW / UNCONFIRMED)
  • Air alerts: Ukraine’s Air Force posted a guided-bomb (KAB) warning for Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. This establishes alert issuance, not impacts or interceptions. (source: Повітряні Сили ЗС України, 2026-10-01 19:10:27; confidence HIGH for alert publication, LOW for effects)
  • General Staff strike accounting: The Ukrainian General Staff claimed 63 air strikes, 187 guided bombs, 3,994 kamikaze drones and 1,844 shellings for the period ending 22:00 30.09.2026, and claimed 170 UAVs destroyed or suppressed on the Pokrovsk axis. These are one-sided Ukrainian figures without independent corroboration. (source: Генеральний штаб ЗСУ, 2026-10-01 19:11:02; confidence MEDIUM for publication, LOW for figures)

Reported Russian activity

  • Capture and flag claims: The Russian Defence Ministry’s Telegram account claimed Russian troops captured Nesternoye, Rublenoye and Vysokaya Yaruga, Kharkiv Oblast, “TODAY,” without geolocated evidence. A pro-Russian channel separately claimed Russian servicemen raised flags in Vysokaya Yaruga, controlled residential buildings and advanced about 2 km from the demarcation line; the caption date and video timestamp conflicted. (sources: MoD Russia, 2026-10-01 19:20:19; Сливочный каприз, 2026-10-01 19:13:14; confidence LOW / UNCONFIRMED)
  • Strike claims: Russian milbloggers claimed fiber-optic FPV drones destroyed a Ukrainian T-80BV near Druzhkivka, Donetsk Oblast; a Russian Aerospace Forces missile-bomb strike on temporary deployment points in occupied Kherson; and destruction of a Ukrainian field warehouse near Dementievka, Kharkiv Oblast. None were independently verified in the supplied material. (sources: Военкор Котенок, 2026-10-01 19:14:10 and 19:19:00; Дом Осинтеров, 2026-10-01 19:19:08; confidence LOW / UNCONFIRMED)
  • Mi-8 crash claim: Russian channels claimed a Russian Mi-8 helicopter crashed in Anninsky District, Voronezh Oblast, killing all three crew members. ASTRA reported the same claim as circulating but explicitly noted no official confirmation and supplied a non-crash photo. (sources: Военкор Котенок, 2026-10-01 19:14:52; Операция Z, 2026-10-01 19:17:01; ASTRA, 2026-10-01 19:03:53; confidence LOW / UNCONFIRMED)
  • Rybar digest: The pro-Kremlin Rybar channel claimed Ukrainian F-16 sustainment problems, growing Russian military spending at the expense of social funding, and the Russian detention of the Cyprus-flagged vessel Västerbotten bound for Sillamäe, asserting Estonian confirmation. These are single-source partisan claims without primary documentation. (source: Рыбарь, 2026-10-01 18:59:38 and 18:59:39; confidence LOW / UNCONFIRMED)
  • Fundraising: Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 solicited donations for a Mavic 3pro, four Matrix 4T units and 15 generators for an assault company and UAV personnel on the Zaporizhzhia direction, stating 27,222₽ collected and 840,894₽ remaining. Authenticity and fund handling were not verified. (source: Дневник Десантника🇷🇺, 2026-10-01 19:02:24; confidence LOW)
  • Information activity: Colonelcassad posted a satirical meme mocking predictions of immediate mobilization after Russian elections. This is opinion/satire, not operational reporting. (source: Colonelcassad, 2026-10-01 19:02:23; confidence LOW)

Reported Ukrainian activity

  • Official Kyiv statements: Mayor Vitali Klitschko, relayed by Ukrainian channels, reported preliminary drone damage to the Southern Bridge support, guardrail, road surface and metro protective barrier, and the suspension of metro and surface transport across the bridge, with rail track being de-energized. (sources: Оперативний ЗСУ, 2026-10-01 19:20:33; РБК-Україна, 2026-10-01 19:20:39; STERNENKO, 2026-10-01 19:21:56; confidence MEDIUM for official statements)
  • Official Kharkiv statements: Oleh Syniehubov and Ihor Terekhov reported strikes in Kyivskyi district, including a drone hit on an administrative building, with consequences being clarified. (sources: Олег Синєгубов, 2026-10-01 18:58:41; Ігор Терехов, 2026-10-01 19:05:05; confidence MEDIUM)
  • General Staff operational report: Ukraine’s General Staff published its 22:00 30.09.2026 update claiming the day’s combat clashes, air strikes, guided bombs, kamikaze drones, shellings, axis-level assaults and Pokrovsk-axis Russian losses. These are official Ukrainian claims without independent verification. (source: Генеральний штаб ЗСУ, 2026-10-01 19:11:02; confidence MEDIUM for publication, LOW for figures)
  • Air Force alert: Ukraine’s Air Force issued a KAB warning for Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. (source: Повітряні Сили ЗС України, 2026-10-01 19:10:27; confidence HIGH for alert issuance, LOW for effects)
  • Promotion report: Оперативний ЗСУ reported the promotion of Colonel Ihor Obolenskyi, commander of the 2nd KNGU “Khartiya,” to brigadier general. No official decree or rank insignia was supplied. (source: Оперативний ЗСУ, 2026-10-01 19:02:05; confidence MEDIUM for identity/unit context, LOW for promotion confirmation)
  • No other new supported Ukrainian combat-activity reporting beyond the above appears in this batch.

Civilian and infrastructure impact

  • Kyiv city — Southern Bridge: Official Ukrainian statements report damage to the bridge support, guardrail, road surface and metro protective concrete barrier; metro and surface public transport across the bridge are halted, and rail track is being de-energized. ASTRA relayed Klitschko saying no casualties were reported. No independent structural assessment or geolocated imagery was supplied. (sources: Оперативний ЗСУ, 2026-10-01 19:20:33; РБК-Україна, 2026-10-01 19:20:39; STERNENKO, 2026-10-01 19:21:56; ASTRA, 2026-10-01 19:18:09; confidence MEDIUM for official statements, LOW for damage extent)
  • Kharkiv city: An enemy strike on Kyivskyi district and a drone hit on an administrative building were reported, with consequences still being clarified and no casualty information supplied. (sources: Олег Синєгубов, 2026-10-01 18:58:41; Ігор Терехов, 2026-10-01 19:05:05; confidence MEDIUM for statements, LOW for damage/casualty detail)
  • Krasnozavodsk, Moscow Oblast, Russia: TASS, citing operational services, reported a fire with five people unaccounted for and a fire area of 1,000 m². No war connection was stated. (source: ТАСС, 2026-10-01 19:07:41; confidence MEDIUM for official emergency-services statement)
  • Dementievka, Kharkiv Oblast: A pro-Russian channel claimed destruction of a Ukrainian field warehouse; the supplied image did not show a strike or warehouse damage. No civilian impact was stated. (source: Дом Осинтеров, 2026-10-01 19:19:08; confidence LOW / UNCONFIRMED)
  • General Staff shelling claim: The Ukrainian General Staff claimed 1,844 shellings of settlements and positions over the reporting day. This figure is not independently verified and does not establish specific civilian harm. (source: Генеральний штаб ЗСУ, 2026-10-01 19:11:02; confidence LOW)
  • No new cumulative totals: The batch supplies no independently supported cumulative civilian casualty, displacement, or service-outage totals.

Information environment and disputed claims

  • Southern Bridge strike count: Ukrainian official statements confirm bridge damage and transport suspension but do not confirm whether the strike was the first, second or third of the day. Russian and Ukrainian channels claimed a second or third strike; repetition across channels is not independent corroboration. (sources: Оперативний ЗСУ, 2026-10-01 19:20:33; ASTRA, 2026-10-01 19:18:09; Военкор Котенок, 2026-10-01 18:59:47 and 19:25:07; confidence LOW for strike count)
  • Russian capture and flag claims: The Russian MoD graphic and pro-Russian Vysokaya Yaruga footage lack geolocated evidence. The Vysokaya Yaruga caption date “01.10.26” conflicts with the video timestamp “2024.09.13”; the discrepancy was not resolved by the source. (sources: MoD Russia, 2026-10-01 19:20:19; Сливочный каприз, 2026-10-01 19:13:14; confidence LOW / UNCONFIRMED)
  • Mi-8 crash claim: Russian channels and ASTRA reported the claim, but ASTRA explicitly stated there was no official confirmation and that its photo did not show a crash. The claim remains single-source and uncorroborated by official Russian authorities. (sources: Военкор Котенок, 2026-10-01 19:14:52; Операция Z, 2026-10-01 19:17:01; ASTRA, 2026-10-01 19:03:53; confidence LOW / UNCONFIRMED)
  • Rybar digest: The Rybar item is a pro-Kremlin, state-aligned product. Its F-16, Russian budget and vessel-detention claims are unsourced; the thumbnail’s “Southern Bridge again under attack” teaser is not explained in the caption. (source: Рыбарь, 2026-10-01 18:59:38 and 18:59:39; confidence LOW / UNCONFIRMED)
  • Colonelcassad satire: The post mocking post-election mobilization predictions is opinion/satire with no verifiable evidence. (source: Colonelcassad, 2026-10-01 19:02:23; confidence LOW)
  • Fundraising content: Russian and Ukrainian channels solicited donations and equipment; organiser identity, prize or equipment existence, and fund handling were not verified. (sources: Дневник Десантника🇷🇺, 2026-10-01 19:02:24; confidence LOW)
  • Analytic support: The supplied belief set assigns dominant mass to Uncertainty (0.749856), with the largest named non-uncertainty hypothesis “Military Action: Drone Strike by Russia on bridge in Kyiv” at 0.027214. These are analytic scaffolding only and are not treated as independent evidence or corroboration.
  • General Staff figures: The Ukrainian General Staff report is an official Ukrainian claim; its combat, drone and shelling figures are one-sided and lack independent verification in the supplied material. (source: Генеральний штаб ЗСУ, 2026-10-01 19:11:02; confidence MEDIUM for publication, LOW for figures)

Evidence limitations and unresolved questions

  • Exact event times were not supplied for the Southern Bridge impacts or the Kharkiv Kyivskyi district strikes; official statements were posted at 19:20–19:21 UTC and 18:58–19:05 UTC respectively, but the events themselves are undated beyond “today” or the posting context.
  • The Southern Bridge strike count remains unverified; official Ukrainian statements do not confirm a second or third strike. The weapon is described as a drone by Klitschko and as a Geran UAV by a Russian channel, but no official weapon identification or independent geolocation was supplied.
  • No independent structural assessment of the Southern Bridge was provided; the damage list comes from official Ukrainian statements, and the fire imagery circulated by Russian and Ukrainian channels is ungeolocated and untimestamped.
  • The Kharkiv Kyivskyi district administrative-building hit has no casualty or damage assessment beyond “consequences being clarified.”
  • The Russian MoD capture claim for Nesternoye, Rublenoye and Vysokaya Yaruga lacks geolocated evidence, unit details and independent confirmation. The Vysokaya Yaruga flag video contains a date discrepancy between its caption and its visible timestamp.
  • The Mi-8 crash in Anninsky District lacks official Russian confirmation and crash-site imagery; ASTRA’s attached photo does not show a crash.
  • The Rybar digest’s F-16 sustainment, Russian budget and vessel-detention claims are single-source and unsupported by primary documents or independent reporting in this batch.
  • The Russian milblogger claims of a T-80BV destroyed near Druzhkivka, a strike in occupied Kherson, and a field warehouse destroyed near Dementievka lack independent verification; the Dementievka image does not show a strike.
  • The Ukrainian General Staff’s figures for combat clashes, air strikes, guided bombs, kamikaze drones, shellings and Pokrovsk-axis losses are one-sided and not independently verified; no cumulative totals are supplied.
  • No new area-level ground reporting appears for Luhansk, Sumy, Poltava, Chernihiv, Odesa, Mykolaiv, or most other sectors; silence in this batch does not establish that conditions there are unchanged.
  • Supplied weather observations as of 2026-10-01T19:15 UTC: Kharkiv/Vovchansk 10.4°C, overcast, cloud 93%, wind 1.9 m/s, precipitation 0.0 mm; Luhansk/Svatove 11.8°C, mainly clear, cloud 34%, wind 2.5 m/s, precipitation 0.0 mm; Donetsk/Pokrovsk 11.2°C, clear, cloud 0%, wind 2.4 m/s, precipitation 0.0 mm; Zaporizhzhia/Orikhiv 13.1°C, clear, cloud 0%, wind 2.5 m/s, precipitation 0.0 mm; Kherson 13.8°C, clear, cloud 0%, wind 3.0 m/s, precipitation 0.0 mm. The daily forecast for 2026-10-01 lists 0.0 mm precipitation at all five reference points and maximum winds of 4.3–5.4 m/s. These are reference-point observations and do not establish conditions at any incident site.
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