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Historical intelligence

Situation Report

Archived operational intelligence briefing retained for historical analysis.

Intelligence brief / archived issue

Situation Update (UTC)

Scope note: Current time is 2026-09-29 13:44:18 UTC. New evidence in this report comes from messages timestamped 12:57:00–13:25:11 UTC on 29 September 2026. The supplied previous situation report is used only as a dated historical baseline; the previous daily report is not re-reported as new evidence. Some messages describe earlier events, including a reported 25 September Ulyanovsk drone strike and 28 September EU sanctions action. Posting time is not necessarily event time.

Key reported developments

  • Russian MoD reports Tu-95 crash in Amur Oblast, Russia: The Russian Ministry of Defense, relayed by TASS, said a Tu-95 crashed during a training flight without combat load in an unpopulated area of Amur Oblast; six crew died and one was injured/evacuated to a medical facility. Earlier claims of a Tu-154 crash were not confirmed. Event time not supplied. (TASS 13:12:00 UTC; also WarGonzo 13:19:21, SOTA 13:16:54, Военкор Котенок 13:16:21; HIGH as an official Russian statement relayed by state media, LOW for independent verification of cause, variant and exact circumstances.)

  • Ukrainian Air Force issues new UAV and KAB warnings: Ukraine’s Air Force warned of a jet UAV in central Chernihiv Oblast moving west, KABs for Kharkiv Oblast, and a jet UAV in northern Kyiv Oblast moving toward Zhytomyr Oblast. These are warning records; no intercepts, impacts or damage are stated. (Event times as message timestamps; Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine 12:59:22–13:20:45 UTC; HIGH as official warning records.)

  • Russian-linked drone unit posts FPV attack on civilian vehicles near Alyoshky: АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА posted video said to show an FPV drone attack on a red pickup and white van labeled a “humanitarian column” near Alyoshky, with an explosion and civilians walking nearby. The post claims the enemy prevents aid delivery; no casualty count is supplied. (Event time not supplied; АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА 13:00:06 and 13:00:07 UTC; MEDIUM-HIGH for visible attack footage, LOW for humanitarian-cargo and intent claims.)

  • Danube shipping bottleneck reported near Sulina: Рыбарь relayed a shipping-manager screenshot and AIS-style map saying the Sulina Canal was closed since 26 September because of bad weather and not expected to reopen before 2 October; about 70 vessels were waiting at Sulina road, with draft limits of 6.4–7.0 m affecting Reni, Giurgiulesti, Galati and Braila. The Russian caption adds unverified claims tying the bottleneck to Russian UAV/USV strikes and calling it strategic pressure on Ukraine. (Рыбарь 13:09:11 UTC; MEDIUM for the reported shipping bottleneck, LOW for causal and strategic claims.)

  • Russian-proclaimed evacuation from Biletske, Donetsk Oblast: Kotsnews said fighters of the 5th Separate Guards Commandant Regiment, 51st Combined Arms Army, “Center” grouping evacuated eight civilians, including a child named Milana, from Biletske/Belitskoye, about 6 km from Dobropol. The post claims a Ukrainian drone killed one man and wounded two women during the evacuation. (Event time not supplied; Kotsnews 13:16:15 UTC; MEDIUM for evacuation footage, LOW for drone-attack and casualty attribution.)

  • Ulyanovsk apartment damaged in reported 25 September UAV strike: Треш Ульяновск reported that a drone struck Rozy Lyuksemburg Street 54 in Ulyanovsk around 05:45 on 25 September, heavily damaging apartment No. 32 and wrecking neighboring apartment No. 31, where a 75-year-old resident survived with cuts and shock. The post included a donation appeal via T-Bank and a bank card. (Event about 25 September, ~05:45 local; Треш Ульяновск 13:05:48 UTC; MEDIUM for visible building damage, LOW for drone attribution, medical details and donation legitimacy.)

  • Bryansk Oblast rail traffic restored after reported AFU attacks: The Moscow Railway press service, via TASS, said train traffic was restored on the Rzhanitsa–Trosna section of the Zhukovsky direction and the Zlynka–Unecha section of the Unechsky direction in Bryansk Oblast after attacks attributed to Ukraine’s armed forces. Event time not supplied. (TASS 13:06:57 UTC; MEDIUM as an official Russian railway statement.)

  • International and diplomatic reports: Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk warned of “very difficult” weeks and months as Russian attacks approach Poland’s border; the EU on 28 September sanctioned Tatarstan head Rustam Minnikhanov over alleged forced deportation of Ukrainian children to a camp in Tatarstan; and a Reuters screenshot relayed by Операция Z reported that Russian envoy Dmitriev and US officials discussed the Ukraine war and energy initiatives in Washington. (RBC-Ukraine 13:15:45, Север.Реалии 13:20:10, Операция Z 13:10:51 UTC; MEDIUM for the reported statements, LOW for added or unsourced details.)

Reported situation by area

  • Amur Oblast, Russia: New evidence centers on a reported Tu-95 crash during a training flight without combat load. The Russian MoD statement relayed by TASS says six crew died and one was injured; the crash occurred in an unpopulated area. Earlier claims of a Tu-154 are not confirmed. Ukrainian-aligned channels variously claimed a Tu-95MS and six of seven crew killed, while WarArchive claimed the aircraft was in full combat readiness with Kh-101 cruise missiles and was redeploying to Olenya airfield, Murmansk Oblast, for a mass missile strike. No exact crash site, tail number or UTC event time is supplied. (Sources include RBC-Ukraine 12:57:00, ЦАПЛІЄНКО 12:58:33–12:58:34, ASTRA 13:02:00–13:02:01, STERNENKO 13:05:23, Exilenova+ 13:05:55, Fighterbomber 13:11:11, ТАСС 13:12:00, WarArchive 13:12:12, Kotsnews 13:16:21, SOTA 13:16:54, WarGonzo 13:19:21 UTC; HIGH as an official Russian statement, LOW for independent verification and for conflicting Ukrainian-aligned details.)

  • Bryansk Oblast, Russia: The Moscow Railway press service said traffic was restored on two sections after attacks attributed to Ukrainian forces. No event time, damage detail or independent confirmation is supplied. (TASS 13:06:57 UTC; MEDIUM.)

  • Ulyanovsk Oblast, Russia: A local channel reported a 25 September drone strike on a residential block on Rozy Lyuksemburg Street 54, with severe damage to two apartments and an elderly survivor. The drone attribution, apartment-number details and donation appeal are not independently verified. (Треш Ульяновск 13:05:48 UTC; MEDIUM for damage, LOW for attribution and fundraising.)

  • Kherson Oblast, Alyoshky area: A Russian-linked drone unit posted video said to show an FPV attack on civilian vehicles near Alyoshky, with the caption framing the vehicles as humanitarian aid and accusing Ukrainian forces of blocking aid. The footage supports an attack scene but not the cargo or intent claims. No casualty figures are supplied. (АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА 13:00:06–13:00:07 and 13:10:47 UTC; MEDIUM-HIGH for visible event, LOW for framing.)

  • Donetsk Oblast, Biletske/Belitskoye area: Kotsnews reported a Russian military evacuation of eight civilians, including a child, by the 5th Separate Guards Commandant Regiment, 51st Combined Arms Army, “Center” grouping, and claimed a Ukrainian drone killed one man and wounded two women during the evacuation. The video supports an evacuation and interviews but not the casualty attribution. (Kotsnews 13:16:15 UTC; MEDIUM for evacuation footage, LOW for attack details.)

  • Chernihiv, Kyiv, Zhytomyr and Kharkiv oblasts: The Ukrainian Air Force issued new warnings for a jet UAV in central Chernihiv Oblast moving west, a jet UAV in northern Kyiv Oblast moving toward Zhytomyr Oblast, and KABs for Kharkiv Oblast. No impacts or intercepts are stated. (Air Force 12:59:22–13:20:45 UTC; HIGH as warning records.)

  • Odesa/Danube sector: The Sulina Canal/Danube shipping bottleneck was reported, with a closure attributed to weather, about 70 vessels waiting at Sulina road, and draft limits affecting Reni, Giurgiulesti, Galati and Braila. The Russian post adds unverified claims about strikes and Ukrainian port throughput. (Рыбарь 13:09:11 UTC; MEDIUM for bottleneck, LOW for causal claims.)

  • Belgorod, Sevastopol and Novorossiysk, Russia: A Russian-aligned channel claimed that a Ukrainian citizen was sentenced to 19 years in Belgorod Oblast for espionage and that three Crimean natives were convicted of treason in Sevastopol and Novorossiysk for installing equipment to monitor radio traffic near Black Sea Fleet bases. No case numbers, court documents or independent confirmation are supplied. (Дневник Десантника 13:22:01 UTC; LOW.)

  • Areas not mentioned in this batch are not established to be quiet or unchanged. The previous situation report remains only a dated historical baseline.

Reported strikes and air-defense activity

  • Ukrainian Air Force warnings: New jet-UAV warnings covered central Chernihiv Oblast, northern Kyiv Oblast toward Zhytomyr Oblast, and KAB warnings for Kharkiv Oblast. These posts establish official alerts only; no intercepts, impacts, casualties or damage are stated. (Air Force 12:59:22–13:20:45 UTC; HIGH as records.)

  • Alyoshky civilian-vehicle FPV attack: A Russian-linked drone unit posted video said to show an FPV strike near Alyoshky on vehicles described as a humanitarian column. The visible event includes an explosion near a red vehicle and smoke; no casualty count is supplied. The claim that the vehicles carried humanitarian cargo is not independently verified. (АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА 13:00:06–13:00:07 UTC; MEDIUM-HIGH for visible attack, LOW for cargo/intent.)

  • Ulyanovsk reported drone strike: A local channel reported a 25 September UAV strike on a residential building in Ulyanovsk, with severe damage to apartments and a 75-year-old survivor. The drone attribution and donation appeal are unverified. (Треш Ульяновск 13:05:48 UTC; MEDIUM for damage, LOW for attribution.)

  • Bryansk Oblast rail attacks: The Moscow Railway press service said traffic was restored on two Bryansk sections after attacks attributed to Ukrainian forces. No damage assessment or independent confirmation is supplied. (TASS 13:06:57 UTC; MEDIUM.)

  • Downed cruise missile/cruise UAV: Группировка войск «Запад» posted video of wreckage in a forested area near a fortified position, described as a downed enemy cruise UAV/cruise missile. The video shows a slender fuselage and cruciform tail, but no location, date or precise weapon mark is supplied. (Группировка войск «Запад» 13:19:58 UTC; HIGH for visible wreckage, LOW for geolocation and exact type.)

  • Russian air-defense claim over Novorossiya highway: Colonelcassad posted video captions claiming air-defense crews of the 50th Separate Brigade “Varyag” destroyed 29 Ukrainian UAVs over the Novorossiya highway, labeling them Hornet, Майя, B-2 and SHARK. The counts and labels are single-source and not independently verified. (Colonelcassad 13:21:01 UTC; LOW.)

  • No independent battle-damage assessment or aggregate interception total for this period is supplied. The Air Force posts are warning records, not impact reports.

Reported Russian activity

  • MoD statement on Tu-95 crash: The Russian Ministry of Defense, via TASS, reported a Tu-95 crash in Amur Oblast during a training flight without combat load, killing six crew and injuring one. The crash site was described as unpopulated. (TASS 13:12:00 UTC; HIGH as official Russian statement, LOW for independent verification.)

  • Evacuation claim in Biletske: Kotsnews said the 5th Separate Guards Commandant Regiment, 51st Combined Arms Army, “Center” grouping evacuated eight civilians, including a child, from Biletske/Belitskoye, and claimed a Ukrainian drone killed one man and wounded two women. (Kotsnews 13:16:15 UTC; MEDIUM for evacuation footage, LOW for casualty attribution.)

  • FPV attack claim near Alyoshky: АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА, a Russian-linked drone unit, posted video of an attack on civilian vehicles near Alyoshky, framing the vehicles as humanitarian aid and accusing Ukrainian forces of blocking aid. (АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА 13:00:06–13:00:07 and 13:10:47 UTC; MEDIUM-HIGH for visible attack, LOW for framing.)

  • Air-defense claim over Novorossiya highway: Colonelcassad claimed the 50th Separate Brigade “Varyag” destroyed 29 UAVs in a 1:36 video, with labels including Hornet, Майя, B-2 and SHARK. (Colonelcassad 13:21:01 UTC; LOW.)

  • FSB counterintelligence claims: A Russian-aligned channel claimed a 19-year sentence in Belgorod Oblast for a Ukrainian citizen accused of spying and treason convictions for three Crimean natives in Sevastopol and Novorossiysk. No documents or independent confirmation are supplied. (Дневник Десантника 13:22:01 UTC; LOW.)

  • Mali ambush claim involving Russian personnel: БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС claimed that Russian mercenaries who had left the Kupiansk front for the “African Corps” were ambushed in Niono, Mali, with three killed and four wounded; images show bodies and captured equipment. The nationality, unit and exact date are not independently verified. (БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС 13:22:01 UTC; MEDIUM for event imagery, LOW for attribution and date.)

  • WarArchive claim about Kh-101 and Olenya: WarArchive claimed the crashed aircraft was in full combat readiness with Kh-101 cruise missiles and was redeploying to Olenya airfield, Murmansk Oblast, for a mass missile strike. This conflicts with the Russian MoD statement that the flight was a training flight without combat load. (WarArchive 13:12:12 UTC; LOW.)

Reported Ukrainian activity

  • Air Force warning activity: Ukraine’s Air Force issued new jet-UAV warnings for Chernihiv, Kyiv and Zhytomyr areas and KAB warnings for Kharkiv Oblast. These are official notification records, not evidence of intercepts or impacts. (Air Force 12:59:22–13:20:45 UTC; HIGH as records.)

  • Gas-station hardening: ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS posted images said to show concrete shelters and gabion blast walls being installed at Ukrainian fuel stations, including an Ukrnafta-branded site. The post claimed gabions withstood a strike last week; no location, date or strike evidence is supplied. (ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS 12:58:10–12:58:11 UTC; MEDIUM for visual evidence, LOW for resilience and public-access claims.)

  • Coordination HQ meeting with families of 225th Separate Assault Regiment: Ukraine’s Coordination HQ for Treatment of Prisoners of War reported a meeting with families of soldiers of the 225th Separate Assault Regiment who are missing or captured, with discussion of search, release mechanisms and cases linked to Kursk and Sumy directions. The photos show an institutional meeting but do not independently confirm the unit or case details. (Координаційний штаб з питань поводження з військовополоненими 13:20:07 UTC; MEDIUM as official communication, LOW for underlying details.)

  • Ukrainian-aligned claims on Tu-95 crash: STERNENKO said the aircraft was a Tu-95MS, not a Tu-154, and that six of seven crew were lost. Exilenova+ posted video from the crash site described as preliminarily a Tu-95. WarArchive said the loss is significant because Tu-95MS bombers are no longer produced but argued missile strikes would not decrease. These are Ukrainian-aligned claims, not independent confirmation of the Russian MoD statement. (STERNENKO 13:05:23, Exilenova+ 13:05:55, WarArchive 13:22:03 UTC; LOW-MEDIUM.)

  • Bryansk rail attacks attributed to Ukrainian forces: TASS, citing the Moscow Railway press service, said traffic was restored after attacks attributed to Ukraine’s armed forces on two Bryansk Oblast sections. (TASS 13:06:57 UTC; MEDIUM as official Russian statement.)

Civilian and infrastructure impact

  • Alyoshky area, Kherson Oblast: A Russian-linked drone unit posted video of an FPV attack on civilian vehicles described as a humanitarian column. The footage shows an explosion near vehicles and civilians walking nearby; no casualty count is supplied. (АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА 13:00:06–13:00:07 UTC; MEDIUM-HIGH for visible attack, LOW for cargo/intent.)

  • Biletske/Belitskoye, Donetsk Oblast: Kotsnews reported evacuation of eight civilians, including a child, and claimed a Ukrainian drone killed one man and wounded two women. The evacuation footage is partial, and the casualty attribution is single-source. (Kotsnews 13:16:15 UTC; MEDIUM for evacuation, LOW for casualties.)

  • Ulyanovsk, Russia: A local channel reported a 25 September drone strike that severely damaged apartments in a residential block; a 75-year-old resident survived with cuts and shock. The donation appeal via a direct bank card is not independently verified and carries fraud risk. (Треш Ульяновск 13:05:48 UTC; MEDIUM for damage, LOW for drone attribution and donation legitimacy.)

  • Danube shipping, Odesa/Romania border area: The reported Sulina Canal closure until at least 2 October and about 70 vessels waiting at Sulina road are described as disrupting Danube logistics to Reni, Giurgiulesti, Galati and Braila. The cause is attributed to weather in the shipping screenshot, while the Russian caption adds unverified strike-related claims. (Рыбарь 13:09:11 UTC; MEDIUM for bottleneck, LOW for causal claims.)

  • Bryansk Oblast, Russia: Rail traffic was restored on two sections after reported attacks attributed to Ukrainian forces. No casualty or damage details are supplied. (TASS 13:06:57 UTC; MEDIUM.)

  • Ukrainian fuel stations: Concrete shelters and gabion blast walls were reported to be installed at fuel stations, including an Ukrnafta-branded site. The claim that gabions absorbed a strike last week is not visually evidenced. (ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS 12:58:10–12:58:11 UTC; MEDIUM for visual evidence, LOW for resilience claims.)

  • Air alerts: New Air Force warnings covered Chernihiv, Kyiv, Zhytomyr and Kharkiv areas. No impacts, casualties or utility disruption are stated in those warning posts. (Air Force 12:59:22–13:20:45 UTC; HIGH as records.)

Information environment and disputed claims

  • Tu-95 crash account is contested and evolving: Initial posts suggested a Tu-154 with conflicting casualty figures, then Ukrainian-aligned channels claimed a Tu-95MS with six crew lost. The Russian MoD subsequently said a Tu-95 crashed during a training flight without combat load, killing six and injuring one. WarArchive claimed the aircraft was carrying Kh-101 missiles and redeploying to Olenya for a mass strike, which conflicts with the MoD statement. Some attached images showed an intact aircraft in flight or low-light wreckage that does not independently confirm type or cause. Several Ukrainian posts used celebratory or hostile language. (RBC-Ukraine 12:57:00, ЦАПЛІЄНКО 12:58:33–12:58:34, ASTRA 13:02:00–13:02:01, STERNENKO 13:05:23, Exilenova+ 13:05:55, Fighterbomber 13:11:11, ТАСС 13:12:00, WarArchive 13:12:12, Оперативний ЗСУ 12:58:45–13:15:20, SOTA 13:16:54, WarGonzo 13:19:21 UTC; LOW for reconciliation of variant, cause and mission profile.)

  • Alyoshky framing: АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА presented the attack as proof that Ukrainian forces block aid to Alyoshky while claiming Russia controls the settlement. The video supports an FPV attack on civilian vehicles but not the humanitarian-cargo claim or broader narrative. (АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА 13:00:06–13:00:07 and 13:10:47 UTC; MEDIUM for footage, LOW for framing.)

  • Biletske evacuation framing: Kotsnews framed Russian units as evacuating civilians under fire and accused Ukrainian forces of targeting civilians. The video shows evacuee interviews and a soldier, but not the drone strike or child-hiding claims. (Kotsnews 13:16:15 UTC; MEDIUM for footage, LOW for framing.)

  • Danube claims: The shipping-manager screenshot attributes the Sulina closure to bad weather, while the Russian caption overlays strike attribution and strategic-pressure claims. The AIS-style map shows vessel clusters but not causes, identities or attack evidence. (Рыбарь 13:09:11 UTC; MEDIUM for bottleneck, LOW for causal claims.)

  • Ulyanovsk donation appeal: The post includes a direct bank-card request, which is a common fraud pattern. The building damage appears visually supported, but the drone attribution and donation legitimacy are not independently verified. (Треш Ульяновск 13:05:48 UTC; LOW for donation appeal.)

  • FSB counterintelligence claims: The reported 19-year spy sentence and treason convictions in Sevastopol and Novorossiysk are single-source Russian-aligned claims without case numbers or documents. (Дневник Десантника 13:22:01 UTC; LOW.)

  • Mali ambush claim: БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС linked Russian personnel from Kupiansk to an ambush in Niono, Mali, with images of bodies and captured gear. The nationality, unit and precise date are not independently verified, and the post uses partisan language. (БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС 13:22:01 UTC; MEDIUM for event imagery, LOW for attribution.)

  • Diplomatic and sanctions claims: The Reuters screenshot relayed by Операция Z supports that a Reuters headline existed about Dmitriev and US officials discussing Ukraine war and energy initiatives, but the Telegram caption adds unsourced details about post-war energy projects and meetings with US Treasury and Energy officials. The EU sanctions on Minnikhanov and Tusk’s warning are reported statements, not independently corroborated event records in this batch. (Операция Z 13:10:51, Север.Реалии 13:20:10, RBC-Ukraine 13:15:45 UTC; MEDIUM for reported statements, LOW for added details.)

  • Air-defense and UAV claims: Colonelcassad’s claim of 29 UAVs destroyed over the Novorossiya highway is a single-source, serialized military-channel claim with no visible wreckage or independent verification. The Air Force warnings are official records but do not establish intercepts or impacts. (Colonelcassad 13:21:01 UTC, Air Force 12:59:22–13:20:45 UTC; LOW for the 29-UAV claim, HIGH for warning records.)

Evidence limitations and unresolved questions

  • Temporal limitation: New messages are timestamped 12:57:00–13:25:11 UTC on 29 September 2026, but many reported events lack a precise time. The Ulyanovsk strike is dated 25 September around 05:45 local; the EU sanctions action is dated 28 September; the Sulina closure is dated 26 September to at least 2 October. The Tu-95 crash has no UTC event time. Posting times are not necessarily event times.

  • Tu-95 crash details unresolved: The Russian MoD statement is relayed by state media but not independently verified by non-Russian sources in this batch. The exact crash site, tail number, variant, cause, mission profile and whether the aircraft carried Kh-101 missiles remain unresolved. Ukrainian-aligned claims conflict with the MoD’s training-flight/no-combat-load account.

  • Air Force warnings: The new warnings for Chernihiv, Kyiv, Zhytomyr and Kharkiv areas do not establish intercepts, impacts, casualties or damage.

  • Alyoshky: No casualty count is supplied. The location is inferred from the source text and likely Kherson Oblast context. The claim that the vehicles carried humanitarian cargo and that Ukrainian forces intentionally blocked aid is not independently verified.

  • Danube shipping: The Sulina closure, about 70 vessels waiting and draft limits are corroborated between a shipping-manager screenshot and an AIS-style map, but the Russian caption’s strike-attribution and port-throughput claims are not supported by those attachments. No official NAVTEX or port-authority notice is supplied.

  • Biletske: The evacuation footage is partial. The claim that a Ukrainian drone killed one man and wounded two women is single-source and not independently verified. No geolocation is supplied.

  • Ulyanovsk: The building damage appears visually supported, but the drone attribution, apartment numbering, medical details and donation appeal are not independently verified. The direct bank-card request carries fraud risk.

  • FSB and Mali claims: No case numbers, court documents or independent confirmation are supplied for the FSB convictions. The Mali ambush claim lacks verified nationality details and a precise date.

  • Diplomatic reports: The full Reuters article, the Polish government readout behind Tusk’s warning, and the EU sanctions document are not supplied in full. Added details in Telegram captions are not independently corroborated.

  • Weather and analytic support: The supplied weather snapshot is dated 2026-09-29T13:30 UTC, with numeric observations for Kharkiv/Vovchansk, Luhansk/Svatove, Donetsk/Pokrovsk, Zaporizhzhia/Orikhiv and Kherson/Kherson. No new message supplies event-linked weather observations, so no weather figures are used as evidence for reported events. The supplied Dempster-Shafer beliefs place the largest mass on Uncertainty at about 0.622; they are treated only as analytic context, not as independent corroboration.

  • No cumulative sector picture: Silence in this batch about a given area does not establish that the area is quiet or unchanged. The previous situation report and previous daily report were used only as dated historical context and are not re-reported here as new.

Previous (2026-09-29 13:16:58.827227+00)