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Historical intelligence

Situation Report

Archived operational intelligence briefing retained for historical analysis.

Intelligence brief / archived issue

Situation Update (UTC)

Key reported developments

  • Kharkiv Oblast — reported Russian FPV strikes killed two civilians and injured two others in separate vehicle attacks on 27 September, per the Kharkiv Oblast Prosecutor's Office as relayed by ASTRA. The prosecutor's office said that in the afternoon of 27 September an FPV drone struck a VAZ 2106 in Shestakovo, Chuhuiv district, killing a 67-year-old driver and causing an acute stress reaction in his 65-year-old wife; separately in Velykyi Burluk, Kupiansk district, an FPV drone struck a car stated to be transporting optical fibre, killing a 41-year-old woman and wounding a 46-year-old man, who was hospitalized. The office said pre-trial investigations were opened under Part 2 of Article 438 of Ukraine's Criminal Code. (Event time: afternoon, 27 September 2026; source: ASTRA, 2026-09-27 17:02:19 UTC; confidence MEDIUM for the official statement, LOW for independent corroboration.)
  • Russian MoD/TASS claim of a "digital detox": TASS relayed a Russian MoD statement and graphic (overlay text "ЦИФРОВОЙ ДЕТОКС" / "В принудительном режиме!") claiming Russian "Geran" strikes on centres providing internet to the Ukrainian Armed Forces had sent the Ukrainian army into a "digital detox." The graphic depicts two black triangular aerial objects over a dark, fiery background and carries TASS branding; no location, target name, date or damage assessment was supplied. (Source: ТАСС, 2026-09-27 16:38:01 UTC; confidence LOW.)
  • Guardian reporting relayed on strikes against Ukrainian ISPs and data centres: RVvoenkor, amplified by Операция Z, claimed The Guardian reported this week's Russian strikes on Kyiv telecommunications infrastructure as a new direction of the campaign, and cited Ukraine's Ministry of Digital as saying about 100,000 households in Kyiv and the region temporarily lost internet after Wednesday and Thursday attacks, with a Friday strike on Datagroup offices. The same relay claimed Ukraine produced zero tonnes of steel this month for the first time in a century, the use of new high-speed Russian jet drones including "Geran-5," and a critical Ukrainian shortage of Patriot missiles. Only a screenshot of the Guardian headline is visually present; the article body, URL, date and byline were not supplied, and the accompanying analyst assessment rated the caption LOW reliability with a likely misattribution of a quote to Serhiy Sternenko. (Source: Операция Z, 2026-09-27 16:33:29 and 16:33:30 UTC; confidence LOW.)
  • Ukrainian Air Force jet-drone alerts (Kyiv and other oblasts): Alerts reported a jet drone toward Korosten; jet UAVs in the south and north of Kyiv Oblast toward the capital; jet UAVs from Chernihiv Oblast toward Kyiv Oblast past Oster toward Velyka Dymerka/Brovary; jet UAVs toward Hubynykha, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast; a jet UAV past Vyshhorod toward Kyiv (Obolon); and a jet UAV toward Brovary. District-level alerts named Troieshchyna (twice), Darnytsia (twice), Zhuliany and Lukianivka. These are alert messages only; no impacts or interceptions were confirmed. (Source: Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, 2026-09-27 16:33:03–17:03:45 UTC; confidence MEDIUM for alert issuance only.)
  • Claimed Ukrainian air strike on a site in Belgorod Oblast, Russia: WarArchive published video and a satellite-comparison photo claiming Ukrainian aviation struck a building at a disused sugar factory in Nova Tavolzhanka, Belgorod Oblast, which it said Russian forces of the "128th Brigade" had converted into a logistics hub, ammunition depot and UAV operator post. Coordinates 50.357108,36.822499 and 50.356925,36.823469 were supplied with a date given as "~25.09.2026." The sender's own assessment rated the visual evidence MEDIUM-HIGH but the unit attribution unverified and flagged the 2026 date as anomalous. (Source: WarArchive, 2026-09-27 17:02:16 UTC; confidence MEDIUM for the released strike imagery, LOW for unit attribution and date.)
  • Ukrainian unit claims a deep-rear drone strike on tanks: БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС relayed a Lasar's Group (National Guard of Ukraine) claim that its drones destroyed three Russian tanks in a single sortie 65 km from the line of contact in the Oleksandrivskyi direction, after cross-unit aerial reconnaissance detected a dug-in tank concentration; the post also claimed the group alone has destroyed more than 2,400 tanks since 2022. No coordinates, date or independently assessable footage frames were supplied. (Source: БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС, 2026-09-27 17:02:48 UTC; confidence LOW.)
  • Claimed Russian counter-battery strike on a Ukrainian MLRS: Сливочный каприз claimed Russian forces successfully struck a Ukrainian BM-21 Grad at a firing position near Serhiivka (Sergeevka) on the Sloviansk axis, more than 8 km from the Russian control zone, supplying coordinates 48.67195,37.35283 and a dated map composite. The sender's own assessment rated the claim LOW overall, noting the target label is a poster annotation, the video could not be evaluated, and map labels carry dates in August–September 2026. (Source: Сливочный каприз, 2026-09-27 16:59:21 UTC; confidence LOW.)
  • CSTO exercise reported to have begun at Chebarkul, Chelyabinsk Oblast: Дневник Десантника reported that the key 2026 CSTO training stage started today at the Chebarkul range, running until 3 October, with command-staff manoeuvres "Vzaimodeystvie-2026" plus reconnaissance "Poisk-2026" and logistics "Echelon-2026," involving about 1,500 personnel and 200 vehicles from Russia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, on a scenario of liquidating border armed conflicts using modern-war experience. The post also claimed Armenia "demonstratively ignored" the drills. Photos show BTR-series APCs with an airborne insignia, a welcome ceremony, and blue-beret troops with a patch resembling the Kazakh flag; the accompanying assessment found no geotag, date or location marker and rated the Armenian boycott claim unverified. (Source: Дневник Десантника🇷🇺, 2026-09-27 16:30:11 and 16:30:12 UTC; confidence MEDIUM for the post's existence and imagery, LOW for force figures and the Armenia claim.)

Reported situation by area

  • Kyiv city and Kyiv Oblast: New evidence consists of Air Force jet-drone alerts toward the capital and districts including Obolon, Troieshchyna, Darnytsia, Zhuliany and Lukianivka, plus routes past Vyshhorod and toward Brovary. Separately, relayed Guardian-derived reporting claimed about 100,000 households in Kyiv and the region temporarily lost internet after mid-week attacks and that a Friday strike hit Datagroup offices. These are alerts and relayed media claims; no confirmed impacts, interceptions, outages or casualties were independently established in this batch. Previously reported Russian MoD claims of strikes on the Omega Telecom and Kyivstar data-processing centres remain baseline only and were not independently corroborated here. (Sources: Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, 16:41:18–17:03:45 UTC; Операция Z, 16:33:29 UTC.)
  • Chernihiv Oblast: The Air Force reported jet UAVs from Chernihiv Oblast toward Kyiv Oblast past Oster on a course toward Velyka Dymerka/Brovary. No impact or interception was confirmed. (Source: Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, 2026-09-27 16:44:59 UTC.)
  • Zhytomyr Oblast / Korosten: The Air Force reported a jet drone toward Korosten. No impact or interception was confirmed. (Source: Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, 2026-09-27 16:33:03 UTC.)
  • Dnipropetrovsk Oblast: The Air Force reported jet UAVs moving toward Hubynykha. No impact or interception was confirmed. (Source: Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, 2026-09-27 16:47:13 UTC.)
  • Kharkiv Oblast (Chuhuiv and Kupiansk districts): The reported FPV strikes on two civilian vehicles in Shestakovo and Velykyi Burluk, with two killed and two injured, are attributed to the Kharkiv Oblast Prosecutor's Office; the accompanying imagery shows badly damaged cars but does not independently confirm drone type, location or date. Previously reported Russian claims of destroying a quadricycle in the Velykyi Burluk direction (Два майора, baseline) were not updated in this batch. (Source: ASTRA, 2026-09-27 17:02:19 UTC; confidence MEDIUM for the official statement.)
  • Donetsk Oblast / Sloviansk axis (near Serhiivka): A Russian-aligned channel claimed a counter-battery strike destroyed a Ukrainian BM-21 Grad over 8 km from the control zone; the claim rests on poster-annotated composite imagery and an unevaluated video. (Source: Сливочный каприз, 2026-09-27 16:59:21 UTC; confidence LOW.)
  • Zaporizhzhia Oblast: ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS relayed an ISW report stating that Zaporizhzhia is "in danger" and that Russia intends to use the dried-out Kakhovka reservoir for an offensive against the city after autumn weather deteriorates. This is a relayed analytic assessment, not a report of an event, and was not independently confirmed in this batch. Previously reported WarGonzo claims of assault actions near Orekhov remain baseline. (Source: ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, 2026-09-27 16:43:55 UTC; confidence LOW.)
  • Belgorod Oblast, Russia (Nova Tavolzhanka): A claimed Ukrainian air strike on a disused sugar factory said to be used by Russian forces as a logistics hub, ammunition depot and UAV post; the strike imagery is reasonably consistent but the unit attribution and the "~25.09.2026" date are unverified. (Source: WarArchive, 2026-09-27 17:02:16 UTC; confidence MEDIUM for imagery, LOW for attribution.)
  • Kursk Oblast, Russia (Kurilovka, spring 2025): Kotsnews published a profile of two troopers of the 810th Naval Infantry Brigade, callsigns "Buba" and "Byba," claiming a 40-day two-man operation in Kurilovka, including road mining, radio-relayed targeting, drone-dropped resupply and treatment of a shrapnel wound. The account is first-person and single-source with no timestamps, geolocation or unit documents supplied. (Source: Kotsnews, 2026-09-27 16:59:01 UTC; confidence LOW.)
  • Other areas: No supported update in the supplied messages. Areas absent from this batch are not established to be quiet or unchanged. Baseline items from the previous situation report (Sumy Oblast claim of an advance north of Kharkivka; DeepState's report of an enemy advance near Bilytske) were not updated.

Reported strikes and air-defense activity

  • Air-defense alerts: The Ukrainian Air Force issued jet-drone/UAV alerts for Korosten; the south and north of Kyiv Oblast toward the capital; from Chernihiv Oblast toward Kyiv Oblast past Oster toward Velyka Dymerka/Brovary; toward Hubynykha in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast; past Vyshhorod toward Kyiv (Obolon); and toward Brovary, with district calls naming Troieshchyna, Darnytsia, Zhuliany and Lukianivka. These messages confirm alert issuance only and do not establish impacts, interceptions, damage or casualties. (Source: Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, 2026-09-27 16:33:03–17:03:45 UTC; confidence MEDIUM for alert issuance only.)
  • Claimed Russian strikes on internet/data infrastructure: TASS relayed a Russian MoD statement and graphic claiming "Geran" strikes on centres providing internet to the Ukrainian Armed Forces produced a "digital detox"; RVvoenkor and Операция Z relayed the same theme while citing a Guardian report on attacks on Ukrainian ISPs and data centres. No target names, locations, dates, weapons evidence or damage assessments accompanied the Russian official material, and the Guardian article was not supplied in full. (Sources: ТАСС, 16:38:01 UTC; Операция Z, 16:33:29 and 17:02:51 UTC; confidence LOW.)
  • Claimed Ukrainian air strike (Belgorod Oblast): Video imagery shows a guided munition impacting an industrial complex with brick smokestacks, alongside a satellite comparison; the post attributes the site to a Russian "128th Brigade" logistics/ammunition/UAV hub. Destruction is visually plausible; the unit claim is text-only. (Source: WarArchive, 2026-09-27 17:02:16 UTC; confidence MEDIUM for the strike release, LOW for attribution.)
  • Claimed Ukrainian drone strike on tanks (Oleksandrivskyi direction): A National Guard unit claim of three tanks destroyed 65 km behind the front in one sortie; no coordinates, date or assessable frames were supplied, and the accompanying assessment rated it LOW. (Source: БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС, 2026-09-27 17:02:48 UTC; confidence LOW.)
  • Claimed Russian counter-battery strike (Sloviansk axis): A Russian-aligned claim of a Ukrainian BM-21 Grad destroyed near Serhiivka, over 8 km from the control zone; evidence is a poster-annotated map composite plus an unevaluated video. (Source: Сливочный каприз, 2026-09-27 16:59:21 UTC; confidence LOW.)
  • No independently confirmed interception or damage outcome from the new Air Force alerts was supplied. Baseline material from the previous situation report and previous daily report (including earlier Russian MoD claims about Kyiv data-processing centres and Odesa logistics facilities) was not updated by this batch.

Reported Russian activity

  • The Russian MoD, via TASS, presented strikes on "centres providing internet to the Ukrainian Armed Forces" as having forced a "digital detox" on the Ukrainian army, publishing a branded graphic; RVvoenkor and Операция Z amplified the same framing. This is official Russian attribution with no independent corroboration supplied. (Sources: ТАСС, 2026-09-27 16:38:01 UTC; Операция Z, 2026-09-27 16:33:29 and 17:02:51 UTC; confidence LOW for independent verification.)
  • A Russian-aligned channel claimed a successful counter-battery strike destroying a Ukrainian BM-21 Grad near Serhiivka on the Sloviansk axis, supplying coordinates and a map composite. (Source: Сливочный каприз, 2026-09-27 16:59:21 UTC; confidence LOW.)
  • Дневник Десантника reported the start of CSTO exercises at Chebarkul, Chelyabinsk Oblast, running to 3 October, with about 1,500 personnel and 200 vehicles from five states and a border-conflict scenario drawing on modern-war experience; the same post claimed Armenia ignored the drills. (Source: Дневник Десантника🇷🇺, 2026-09-27 16:30:11 UTC; confidence MEDIUM for the post, LOW for figures and the Armenia claim.)
  • Kotsnews published a first-person account attributed to two troopers of the 810th Naval Infantry Brigade describing a 40-day two-man operation in Kurilovka, Kursk Oblast, in spring 2025. (Source: Kotsnews, 2026-09-27 16:59:01 UTC; confidence LOW.)
  • Colonelcassad relayed an Iranian claim that IRGC forces captured a US Remus 600 underwater drone "practically intact" in the Strait of Hormuz and speculated that Iran might share the technology with Russia and China. This is peripheral to the Russo-Ukrainian war, single-source and unconfirmed by US or Iranian officials in the supplied material. (Source: Colonelcassad, 2026-09-27 17:00:47 UTC; confidence LOW, UNCONFIRMED.)

Reported Ukrainian activity

  • The Ukrainian Air Force issued the jet-drone and UAV alerts listed above; these confirm alert issuance only and do not confirm impacts or interceptions. (Source: Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, 2026-09-27 16:33:03–17:03:45 UTC; confidence MEDIUM for alert issuance only.)
  • The Kharkiv Oblast Prosecutor's Office, relayed by ASTRA, reported the two fatal FPV-drone attacks on civilian vehicles in Chuhuiv and Kupiansk districts and said it had opened pre-trial investigations into a suspected war crime causing death. (Source: ASTRA, 2026-09-27 17:02:19 UTC; confidence MEDIUM for the official statement, LOW for the underlying attribution to specific Russian strikes.)
  • WarArchive released video and imagery of a claimed Ukrainian aviation strike on a disused sugar factory in Nova Tavolzhanka, Belgorod Oblast, described as a Russian logistics hub, ammunition depot and UAV operator post. (Source: WarArchive, 2026-09-27 17:02:16 UTC; confidence MEDIUM for the released imagery, LOW for the stated unit occupying the site.)
  • БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС relayed a Lasar's Group claim that its drones destroyed three Russian tanks 65 km from the line of contact in the Oleksandrivskyi direction, and asserted the group alone has destroyed more than 2,400 tanks since 2022. (Source: БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС, 2026-09-27 17:02:48 UTC; confidence LOW.)
  • Оперативний ЗСУ and Операция Z posted the Russian MoD "digital detox" graphic alongside Ukrainian-language and Russian-language captions citing The Guardian's reporting on attacks on Ukrainian data centres and ISPs. These are relayed media items, not independent confirmation of specific strikes. (Sources: Оперативний ЗСУ, 2026-09-27 16:55:59 UTC; Операция Z, 2026-09-27 16:33:29 UTC; confidence MEDIUM as evidence of the relay, LOW for the underlying strike claims.)
  • РБК-Україна posted a claim, attributed to CBS News and unspecified "media data," that the US military is preparing for potential military action against Cuba with an invasion possibly beginning "in the coming months." The attached image shows troops with US and Polish insignia in an apparent training setting, not Cuba, and the accompanying assessment rated the item LOW with a caption–image mismatch. This is peripheral to the Russo-Ukrainian war. (Source: РБК-Україна, 2026-09-27 17:00:29 UTC; confidence LOW, UNCONFIRMED.)

Civilian and infrastructure impact

  • Kharkiv Oblast: The Kharkiv Oblast Prosecutor's Office reported two civilians killed and two injured in the 27 September FPV-drone attacks on vehicles in Shestakovo (Chuhuiv district) and Velykyi Burluk (Kupiansk district), including a 67-year-old driver killed at the scene, a 65-year-old woman with an acute stress reaction, a 41-year-old woman killed, and a 46-year-old man hospitalized. (Source: ASTRA, 2026-09-27 17:02:19 UTC; confidence MEDIUM for the official statement.)
  • Kyiv and region — claimed internet disruption: Relayed reporting attributed to Ukraine's Ministry of Digital claimed about 100,000 households in Kyiv and the region temporarily lost internet after attacks on Wednesday and Thursday, with a Friday strike on Datagroup offices; the relay also claimed a fear that winter attacks could affect networks serving banks, payment systems and state services. Only a screenshot of a Guardian headline was supplied; no outage telemetry or official Ukrainian document was included in this batch. (Source: Операция Z, 2026-09-27 16:33:29 UTC; confidence LOW.)
  • Claimed industrial impact: The same relay asserted that Ukraine produced zero tonnes of steel this month for the first time in a century. The accompanying assessment rated this unsupported by the supplied evidence. (Source: Операция Z, 2026-09-27 16:33:29 UTC; confidence LOW.)
  • No new reports of displacement or utility damage in Ukraine were supplied in this batch. Civilian-impact reporting in the previous daily report (Kyiv district fire damage, Kharkiv Oblast injuries, Odesa Oblast building damage) remains historical baseline and was not updated.
  • No supported update in the supplied messages on other civilian-impact categories.

Information environment and disputed claims

  • The "digital detox" theme is the dominant narrative in this batch. The Russian MoD's "ЦИФРОВОЙ ДЕТОКС" / "В принудительном режиме!" graphic was relayed by TASS, RVvoenkor/Операция Z (twice) and Оперативний ЗСУ, while Ukrainian outlets and channels paired it with Guardian-derived reporting on strikes against Ukrainian data centres and ISPs. Repetition of the graphic across multiple posts is not independent corroboration of any specific strike, target or outage; the graphic is a branded artefact, not strike documentation. (Sources: ТАСС, 16:38:01 UTC; Операция Z, 16:33:29, 17:02:51 UTC; Оперативний ЗСУ, 16:55:59 UTC; confidence MEDIUM for the posts' existence, LOW for the underlying claims.)
  • The Guardian material is second-hand. No Guardian article title, author, date, URL or body text was supplied; only a screenshot of a headline was visually present. The relay also misattributes a quote to Serhiy Sternenko as a "former Zelensky adviser," per the accompanying assessment, and includes extraordinary claims (zero steel output; "Geran-5"; Patriot shortage) that were not independently supported. (Source: Операция Z, 2026-09-27 16:33:29 and 16:33:30 UTC; confidence LOW.)
  • Competing/self-interested military claims: The Сливочный каприз counter-battery claim (Sloviansk axis) and the Lasar's Group tank-strike claim (Oleksandrivskyi direction) are separately sourced, partisan assertions with no independent corroboration; both senders' own assessments rate specifics as unverified. The WarArchive Belgorod strike combines reasonably consistent imagery with a text-only unit attribution and an anomalous 2026 date noted by the sender's own assessment. (Sources: Сливочный каприз, 16:59:21 UTC; БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС, 17:02:48 UTC; WarArchive, 17:02:16 UTC.)
  • CSTO exercise messaging: The Дневник Десантника post combines a plausible exercise report with loaded political framing ("demonstratively ignored") against Armenia; the accompanying assessment found no geolocation, timestamp or official CSTO/Russian MoD confirmation and flagged possible reuse of file imagery. (Source: Дневник Десантника🇷🇺, 2026-09-27 16:30:11 and 16:30:12 UTC; confidence MEDIUM for the post, LOW for the boycott claim.)
  • Kotsnews morale/recruitment-style content: The 810th Naval Infantry Brigade profile uses heroic framing, a sentimental callsign origin story, a derogatory term for Ukrainians, and claims of enemy abandonment of supplies; the accompanying assessment rated specific operational and unit details unverified. (Source: Kotsnews, 2026-09-27 16:59:01 UTC; confidence LOW.)
  • Peripheral unverified claims: РБК-Україна's US-invasion-of-Cuba claim (caption–image mismatch; no CBS link) and Colonelcassad's relayed Iranian Remus 600 capture claim (single-source, possibly recycled footage, no US/Iranian official confirmation) are outside the core battlefield picture and remain unverified within this batch. (Sources: РБК-Україна, 17:00:29 UTC; Colonelcassad, 17:00:47 UTC; confidence LOW.)
  • The supplied Dempster-Shafer belief set assigns high uncertainty (about 0.685) with low individual probabilities to hypotheses including a Ukrainian air strike on a logistics hub in Belgorod Oblast, Russian FPV drone strikes on the two vehicles in Kharkiv Oblast, and a Ukrainian drone strike on Russian tanks in the Oleksandrivskyi direction. It is analytic support only and is not independent corroboration of any event. (Source: supplied belief set; not a message sender.)

Evidence limitations and unresolved questions

  • The Kharkiv FPV casualties rest on a single official Ukrainian prosecutorial statement relayed by one outlet; the attached imagery shows damaged vehicles but does not independently confirm drone type, location, date or victim identities, and no Russian response was supplied.
  • The Russian MoD "digital detox" claim and the TASS graphic provide no locations, target names, dates, weapons evidence or battle-damage assessment; the claim that named internet/data facilities were struck and that this produced specific outages is not established by this batch.
  • The Guardian-derived reporting (about 100,000 households offline; Datagroup; zero steel production; "Geran-5"; Patriot shortage) is unverified second-hand material with no article, URL, date or official confirmation supplied; a likely misattribution is flagged in the accompanying assessment.
  • The Air Force messages confirm only that alerts were issued; they do not establish impacts, interceptions, damage or casualties.
  • The WarArchive Belgorod strike imagery is visually consistent but the 128th Brigade attribution and the "~25.09.2026" date are unverified; the sender's own assessment flags the date as anomalous.
  • The Lasar's Group tank-strike claim and the Сливочный каприз BM-21 Grad claim are single-source, partisan and provide no independently assessable evidence; the Сливочный каприз composite includes map labels dated August–September 2026 alongside a 27 September caption.
  • The CSTO exercise figures (~1,500 personnel, 200 vehicles), exercise names and the Armenian boycott claim lack official confirmation; photos carry no geotag or date.
  • The Kotsnews Kurilovka account is a single-source first-person narrative with no timestamps, geolocation or unit documents.
  • The Iranian Remus 600 capture claim, the US–Cuba claim and the earlier-reported "Dead Hand"/"Perimeter" claim lack official confirmation in the supplied material.
  • Baseline items from the previous situation report (Russian MoD claims regarding Omega Telecom, Kyivstar, the Odesa Nova Poshta logistics centre and a dry-cargo ship; the Sumy Oblast advance claim; DeepState's near-Bilytske report; MoD Russia's earlier "Forced shut down!" post at 16:05:01 UTC) were not updated or independently corroborated by this batch, and no Ukrainian official response to those strike claims was supplied.
  • The supplied weather context provides time-qualified numeric observations for frontline reference points as of 2026-09-27T17:00 UTC (for example, Kharkiv/Vovchansk 13.9 °C, overcast, wind 3.2 m/s, 100 % cloud, 0.1 mm precipitation); it is environmental information only and is not evidence of military events.
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