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Historical intelligence

Situation Report

Archived operational intelligence briefing retained for historical analysis.

Intelligence brief / archived issue

Situation Update (UTC)

Report generated 2026-09-27 14:00:57 UTC. New evidence in this batch is drawn from supplied messages timestamped 2026-09-27 13:28:35–14:00:16 UTC. The previous situation report and previous daily report are used only as dated historical baseline/context and are not independent corroboration of events in this batch.

Key reported developments

  • Sumy city: multiple Ukrainian sources relayed an official Sumy Oblast Military Administration statement that Russian KABs struck Sumy, killing two people — an elderly woman and a 16-year-old girl — and injuring five others, including one child. One strike was reported near a center for support of families and children; the building was damaged, and the Sumy OVA said no visitors were present at the time. Three KABs were claimed. (Event time not stated; sources: ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, 13:31:14 UTC; РБК-Україна, 13:42:13 UTC; Оперативний ЗСУ, 13:56:01 UTC; ASTRA, 13:57:01 UTC; confidence MEDIUM for the relayed official statement, LOW for independent corroboration.)
  • Kyiv city, Holosiivskyi district: ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS relayed Kyiv Mayor Klitschko saying a drone hit an administrative building in Holosiivskyi district. (Event time not stated; source: ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, 14:00:01 UTC; confidence MEDIUM for the official statement, LOW for independent corroboration.)
  • Kyiv city, near RiverMall: a single watermarked photo and caption claimed a UAV hit near the RiverMall shopping center and showed a large smoke plume. The supplied assessment said the photo alone did not confirm UAV involvement, exact location, time, damage, or casualties. (Event time not stated; source: ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, 13:28:35–13:28:36 UTC; confidence LOW.)
  • Ukrainian Air Force issued numerous jet-drone alerts across Kyiv city districts and Kyiv Oblast, plus an alert for a jet drone east of Bila Tserkva heading toward the capital and another in southern Chernihiv Oblast heading toward Kyiv Oblast. These are alerts, not confirmed impacts. (Source timestamps 13:38:36–13:58:43 UTC; source: Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine; confidence MEDIUM for alert issuance only.)
  • Belgorod Oblast, Russia: Рыбарь relayed an official Shebekinsky district operational-staff summary for the previous 24 hours: 3 shellings, 5 munitions, 1 explosive dropped from a UAV, and 34 UAV strikes, of which 13 were reported shot down or suppressed. The summary listed civilian injuries in Surkovo and Shebekino and damage in multiple settlements, including homes, vehicles, an enterprise, and a power line. (Event times not fully stated; source: Рыбарь, 13:45:07 UTC; confidence MEDIUM for the relayed official statement, LOW for independent confirmation.)
  • Rostov Oblast, Russia: КіберБорошно | CyberBoroshno posted a satellite-image assessment of the 26 September 2026 strike on the Azov Optical-Mechanical Plant, claiming hits on at least 5 production shops (6 buildings), including foundry, optics, assembly, galvanic-coating and machining shops. (Event date 26 September 2026 as stated; source: КіберБорошно | CyberBoroshno, 14:00:12 UTC; confidence MEDIUM for the source’s imagery analysis, LOW for independent corroboration.)
  • Russian air-defense claim: ТАСС relayed a Russian Ministry of Defense video caption claiming a Pantsir-S crew shot down three Ukrainian “Flamingo” cruise missiles bound for Moscow on the night of 19–20 September. No year, location, unit, or independent evidence was supplied. (Event time as stated without year; source: ТАСС, 13:59:01 UTC; confidence LOW.)
  • Russian strategic nuclear command claim: ASTRA relayed a joint investigation by The Sunday Times, Danwatch, and the Dossier Center alleging modernization of Object No. 1335 near Kytlym, Sverdlovsk Oblast, linked to the Soviet-era Perimeter system known in the West as “Dead Hand.” The post cited leaked documents, satellite imagery, procurement records, and quoted Russian and Western experts; the nuclear mission and automation claims remain unverified. (Event dates include procurement from 2018 onward and peak work in 2020–2021 as stated; source: ASTRA, 13:34:01 UTC; confidence MEDIUM for the existence of the relayed investigation, LOW for its core operational claims.)

Reported situation by area

  • Kyiv city and Kyiv Oblast: New evidence includes a claim of a UAV hit near RiverMall based on a single watermarked photo, a relayed official statement that a drone hit an administrative building in Holosiivskyi district, and multiple Ukrainian Air Force jet-drone alerts naming Kyiv districts and nearby settlements. No casualty or service-disruption details were supplied for the Holosiivskyi or RiverMall incidents. (Sources: ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, 13:28:35–13:28:36 and 14:00:01 UTC; Повітряні Сили ЗС України, 13:38:36–13:58:43 UTC; confidence MEDIUM for official Kyiv statement, LOW for the RiverMall claim.)
  • Sumy city and Sumy Oblast: Ukrainian sources relayed Sumy OVA statements that Russian KABs struck Sumy, killing two people including a 16-year-old girl and injuring five including a child; one strike was reported near a center for support of families and children. Оперативний ЗСУ described one hit as on the territory of a specialized children’s home, while ASTRA/Sumy OVA described a center for support of families and children with no visitors present — a material discrepancy in the supplied accounts. ASTRA also relayed a claim that on 27 September, 2 people died and 23 were injured in Sumy from Russian KAB strikes, but the text described this as “the day before,” creating a date inconsistency. (Sources: ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, 13:31:14 UTC; РБК-Україна, 13:42:13 UTC; Оперативний ЗСУ, 13:56:01 UTC; ASTRA, 13:57:01 UTC; confidence MEDIUM for the official Sumy OVA casualty report, LOW for exact facility identification and the prior-day toll.)
  • Belgorod Oblast, Russia: Рыбарь relayed an official summary for Shebekinsky district covering Shebekino city and the villages of Arkhangelskoye, Belyanka, Voznesenovka, Dobroye, Karaichnoye, Malomikhaylovka, Nizhneye Berezovo-Vtoroye, Novaya Tavolzhanka, Rzhevka, Starovshchina, and Surkovo. The summary claimed 3 shellings, 5 munitions, 1 UAV-dropped explosive, and 34 UAV strikes, with 13 downed or suppressed. It reported injuries to a couple in Surkovo from an FPV drone, a woman injured in Shebekino, and a man with acoustic trauma from a 25 September attack. (Event times not fully stated; source: Рыбарь, 13:45:07 UTC; confidence MEDIUM for the relayed official statement, LOW for independent verification.)
  • Rostov Oblast, Russia: КіберБорошно | CyberBoroshno posted satellite-image claims of damage at the Azov Optical-Mechanical Plant from a strike on 26 September 2026. The post claimed hits in Shop 022 (foundry, two buildings), Shop 008 (optics), Shop 009 (assembly), Shop 010 (galvanic coating), and Shop 024 (machining), with at least one roof collapse and possible additional wall damage nearby. (Source: КіберБорошно | CyberBoroshno, 14:00:12 UTC; confidence MEDIUM for the source’s imagery assessment, LOW for independent corroboration.)
  • Sverdlovsk Oblast, Russia: ASTRA relayed an investigation alleging modernization of Object No. 1335 near Kytlym, about 310 km by road from Nizhny Tagil. The post cited approximately 2.5 million documents, purchases since 2018, at least 24 underground rooms, and about 20,000 tons of steel. It linked the site to the Perimeter/Dead Hand system and quoted Colonel Yuri Andreev and retired GRU Major General Vladimir Khalin. (Source: ASTRA, 13:34:01 UTC; confidence MEDIUM for the existence of the relayed investigation, LOW for core nuclear-mission and automation claims.)
  • Chernihiv Oblast and northern Kyiv axis: Ukrainian Air Force reported a jet drone in southern Chernihiv Oblast heading toward Kyiv Oblast, and another east of Bila Tserkva heading toward the capital. These were alerts only; no impacts were confirmed in the supplied messages. (Source: Повітряні Сили ЗС України, 13:38:36 and 13:40:53 UTC; confidence MEDIUM for alerts only.)
  • Moscow-bound air-defense claim: ТАСС relayed a Russian MoD claim that Pantsir-S downed three Ukrainian Flamingo cruise missiles flying toward Moscow on the night of 19–20 September. No location, year, or independent evidence was supplied. (Source: ТАСС, 13:59:01 UTC; confidence LOW.)
  • Other areas: no supported update in the supplied messages. Previous report entries for Kharkiv, Donetsk, Poltava, Cherkasy, Smolensk and other areas are not updated by this batch and are not established as quiet or unchanged.

Reported strikes and air-defense activity

  • Sumy city: Ukrainian sources reported a Russian KAB strike on central Sumy, with claims of three KABs, two dead including a 16-year-old girl and an elderly woman, and five injured including a child. One strike was reported near a center for support of families and children; Оперативний ЗСУ claimed a hit on the territory of a specialized children’s home, while ASTRA/Sumy OVA described a center for support of families and children with no visitors present. Photos showed emergency responders, damaged buildings, debris, a child’s toy, and at least one covered body. (Sources: ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, 13:31:14 UTC; РБК-Україна, 13:42:13 UTC; Оперативний ЗСУ, 13:56:01 UTC; ASTRA, 13:57:01 UTC; confidence MEDIUM for the occurrence of a deadly strike in Sumy per official Ukrainian statements, LOW for exact casualty details, weapon type and facility identification.)
  • Kyiv city: ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS relayed Klitschko’s statement that a drone hit an administrative building in Holosiivskyi district. Separately, a single watermarked photo and caption claimed a UAV hit near RiverMall and showed smoke. No official confirmation, geolocation, damage assessment, or casualty report was supplied for the RiverMall claim. (Sources: ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, 13:28:35–13:28:36 and 14:00:01 UTC; confidence MEDIUM for the Holosiivskyi official statement, LOW for RiverMall.)
  • Ukrainian Air Force alerts: Alerts named east of Bila Tserkva heading toward the capital; southern Chernihiv Oblast heading toward Kyiv Oblast; Velyka Dymerka; Brovary; Hlevakha from the south; Lisovyi Masyv; Mykilska Slobidka; Podil; Lukyanivka; Nyvky and Bilychi; Kotsiubynske and Berkovets; Vynohradar; Kurenivka; central Kyiv; Demiivka; Holosiiv; Khotiv; Brovary; Pidhirtsi; Darnytsia; Vita Lytovska and Darnytsia; Feofaniia; and the Southern Bridge. These alerts describe reported drone headings and do not confirm strikes or impacts. (Source: Повітряні Сили ЗС України, 13:38:36–13:58:43 UTC; confidence MEDIUM for alert issuance only.)
  • Unverified drone tracking claims: Николаевский Ванёк claimed two jet drones over Kyiv and one under Boryspil, then later claimed two were “minus” over Kyiv while one under Boryspil was still circling. These are single-channel monitoring claims without official confirmation. (Sources: Николаевский Ванёк, 13:50:49 and 14:00:16 UTC; confidence LOW.)
  • Russian air-defense claim: ТАСС relayed a Russian MoD video caption claiming a Pantsir-S crew downed three Ukrainian Flamingo cruise missiles bound for Moscow on the night of 19–20 September. No independent evidence, geolocation, or year was supplied. (Source: ТАСС, 13:59:01 UTC; confidence LOW.)
  • Ukrainian strike result claim, Rostov Oblast: КіберБорошно | CyberBoroshno posted a satellite-image assessment of the 26 September 2026 strike on the Azov Optical-Mechanical Plant, claiming at least five production shops were hit. This follows previously reported claims of a strike on the plant but is not independent corroboration of them. (Source: КіберБорошно | CyberBoroshno, 14:00:12 UTC; confidence MEDIUM for the source’s imagery assessment, LOW for independent corroboration.)
  • Belgorod Oblast civilian-impact claims: Рыбарь relayed the Shebekinsky district operational-staff summary of shelling and UAV strikes causing civilian injuries and damage. This is a Russian official-source relay, not independently verified in the supplied messages. (Source: Рыбарь, 13:45:07 UTC; confidence MEDIUM for the relayed official statement, LOW for independent confirmation.)

Reported Russian activity

  • Russian MoD/TASS claimed a Pantsir-S crew intercepted three Ukrainian Flamingo cruise missiles bound for Moscow on the night of 19–20 September. No unit, location, year, or independent evidence was supplied. (Source: ТАСС, 13:59:01 UTC; confidence LOW.)
  • Russian official Shebekinsky district data, relayed by Рыбарь, described Ukrainian shelling and UAV strikes on Shebekino city and multiple villages, with reported civilian injuries, damage to homes, vehicles, an enterprise, and a power line, and 13 UAVs shot down or suppressed. (Source: Рыбарь, 13:45:07 UTC; confidence MEDIUM for the relayed official statement, LOW for independent verification.)
  • ASTRA relayed a Sunday Times/Danwatch/Dossier Center investigation alleging Russian modernization of Object No. 1335 near Kytlym, Sverdlovsk Oblast, linked to the Perimeter/Dead Hand nuclear command-and-control system. The post cited leaked procurement and satellite imagery and quoted Russian and Western experts. (Source: ASTRA, 13:34:01 UTC; confidence MEDIUM for existence of the relayed investigation, LOW for core operational claims.)
  • Рыбарь published a Russian-aligned “war of cities” commentary arguing that strikes on Ukrainian cities are intended to make Ukraine a useless asset to its sponsors. The post provided no sourced economic data and used symbolic imagery rather than documentary evidence. (Source: Рыбарь, 13:32:48 UTC; confidence LOW for factual/economic claims, MEDIUM as evidence of a Russian propaganda narrative.)
  • No new Russian ground-force activity or unit-level ground combat claims were supported in the supplied messages. Previous report entries are not updated by this batch.

Reported Ukrainian activity

  • Ukrainian Air Force issued multiple jet-drone alerts for Kyiv city districts, Kyiv Oblast, southern Chernihiv Oblast, Bila Tserkva area, Brovary, Hlevakha, Velyka Dymerka and other named locations. No interception results or impacts were reported in these messages. (Source: Повітряні Сили ЗС України, 13:38:36–13:58:43 UTC; confidence MEDIUM for alerts only.)
  • Ukrainian official statements via Sumy OVA, relayed by ASTRA, РБК-Україна and Оперативний ЗСУ, reported a Russian KAB strike on Sumy with two dead, including a 16-year-old girl and an elderly woman, and five injured including a child. (Sources: РБК-Україна, 13:42:13 UTC; Оперативний ЗСУ, 13:56:01 UTC; ASTRA, 13:57:01 UTC; confidence MEDIUM for the official casualty report, LOW for independent corroboration.)
  • ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS relayed Klitschko’s statement that a drone hit an administrative building in Holosiivskyi district, Kyiv. (Source: ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, 14:00:01 UTC; confidence MEDIUM for the official statement.)
  • КіберБорошно | CyberBoroshno posted satellite-image damage claims for the Azov Optical-Mechanical Plant in Rostov Oblast following a 26 September 2026 strike. (Source: КіберБорошно | CyberBoroshno, 14:00:12 UTC; confidence MEDIUM for the source’s imagery assessment, LOW for independent corroboration.)
  • Оперативний ЗСУ posted a claim that Switzerland rejected a referendum initiative on strict neutrality and continued sanctions against Russia. The attached chart was dated 27 September 2026 and marked an intermediate result; no official Swiss source link was supplied. (Source: Оперативний ЗСУ, 13:48:12 UTC; confidence LOW.)
  • STERNENKO posted a critique of the world practical shooting federation’s reported decision to allow Russian and Belarusian athletes to compete under their flags next year, naming Russian federation head Mikhail Gushchin and board member Vladimir Solovyov. No official federation source was supplied. (Source: STERNENKO, 13:51:11 UTC; confidence LOW for independent verification.)
  • No new Ukrainian ground-force activity or unit-level ground combat claims were supported in the supplied messages.

Civilian and infrastructure impact

  • Sumy city: Ukrainian official sources relayed that two people died — an elderly woman and a 16-year-old girl — and five were injured, including one child, in a reported Russian KAB strike. One strike was reported near a center for support of families and children; the building was damaged, and the Sumy OVA said no visitors were present. Photos showed damaged buildings, debris, emergency responders, a child’s toy, and at least one covered body. ASTRA also relayed a claim of 2 dead and 23 injured in Sumy on 27 September, described as “the day before,” which is internally inconsistent with the stated date. (Sources: ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, 13:31:14 UTC; РБК-Україна, 13:42:13 UTC; Оперативний ЗСУ, 13:56:01 UTC; ASTRA, 13:57:01 UTC; confidence MEDIUM for the official casualty report, LOW for exact facility identity and prior-day toll.)
  • Kyiv city: A single watermarked photo claimed a UAV hit near RiverMall and showed smoke; no official confirmation, casualty, or damage details were supplied. Separately, Klitschko’s relayed statement reported a drone hit on an administrative building in Holosiivskyi district; no casualties or service disruptions were specified in the supplied messages. (Sources: ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, 13:28:35–13:28:36 and 14:00:01 UTC; confidence MEDIUM for the Holosiivskyi official statement, LOW for RiverMall.)
  • Belgorod Oblast, Russia: The relayed Shebekinsky district official summary reported civilian injuries in Surkovo and Shebekino, and damage to an enterprise, 2 apartment buildings, 3 private houses, 2 outbuildings, a power line, and 4 cars in Shebekino; 2 private houses and 2 trucks in Novaya Tavolzhanka, one truck destroyed by fire; a private house and car in Voznesenovka; a car and a private-house fire in Nizhneye Berezovo-Vtoroye; a car in Malomikhaylovka; and a household building and car in Belyanka. (Source: Рыбарь, 13:45:07 UTC; confidence MEDIUM for the relayed official statement, LOW for independent confirmation.)
  • Air alerts: Multiple alerts were issued for Kyiv city districts, Kyiv Oblast and southern Chernihiv Oblast, but no civilian impacts, casualties, or service disruptions were confirmed in the supplied messages. (Source: Повітряні Сили ЗС України, 13:38:36–13:58:43 UTC; confidence MEDIUM for alerts only.)
  • No supported civilian-impact update was supplied for other areas in this batch.

Information environment and disputed claims

  • The Sumy casualty and facility claims came through multiple Ukrainian channels but all trace to Ukrainian official/regional statements, chiefly the Sumy OVA. The exact weapon type, casualty identities, and facility description — “specialized children’s home” versus “center for support of families and children” — remain single-source and not independently corroborated. Emotional framing, including crying emojis and emphasis on a child victim, was present in several posts. (Sources: ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, 13:31:14 UTC; РБК-Україна, 13:42:13 UTC; Оперативний ЗСУ, 13:56:01 UTC; ASTRA, 13:57:01 UTC; confidence MEDIUM for official statements, LOW for disputed details.)
  • The RiverMall smoke photo was watermarked “КИЕВСКИЙ ДВИЖ” and lacked geolocation, timestamp, visible landmarks, emergency response, or official confirmation. The supplied assessment said the smoke could have various causes and the UAV claim was unverified. (Source: ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS, 13:28:35–13:28:36 UTC; confidence LOW.)
  • The Shebekino post by Рыбарь juxtaposed a federal TV report about improving conditions with official incident data and screenshots of critical local comments. The video itself was not viewable in the supplied material, commenter identities were not verified, and the official incident summary was a regional operational-staff claim. (Source: Рыбарь, 13:45:07 UTC; confidence MEDIUM for the existence of the post and relayed official data, LOW for independent verification of comments and TV-report content.)
  • Рыбарь’s “war of cities” post used unsourced economic and demographic figures — hundreds of billions of euros consumed, more than €50 billion annually required, working-age population halved, industrial sources destroyed — and argued that Russian strikes could cause Western sponsors to abandon Ukraine. This is a Russian-aligned narrative claim, not independently verified economic analysis. (Source: Рыбарь, 13:32:48 UTC; confidence LOW for factual claims, MEDIUM as evidence of a propaganda narrative.)
  • The TASS/Pantsir claim about three Flamingo cruise missiles downed on the night of 19–20 September rested solely on a Russian MoD/TASS source chain. No missile debris, radar track, location, unit, year, or independent imagery was supplied. (Source: ТАСС, 13:59:01 UTC; confidence LOW.)
  • The ASTRA post on Object No. 1335 rested on a relayed joint investigation and leaked/procurement documents. The “Dead Hand” label is a Western term; the post itself acknowledged that automation and launch-decision mechanics are classified. The document cover and annotated satellite imagery were described but not independently authenticated in the supplied material. (Source: ASTRA, 13:34:01 UTC; confidence MEDIUM for existence of the relayed investigation, LOW for core nuclear-mission and automation claims.)
  • The Swiss referendum post by Оперативний ЗСУ claimed rejection of a strict-neutrality initiative and continued sanctions against Russia. The attached chart was dated 27 September 2026 and marked an intermediate count; no official Swiss source link was supplied. (Source: Оперативний ЗСУ, 13:48:12 UTC; confidence LOW.)
  • The supplied Dempster-Shafer belief set lists “Uncertainty” at 0.848671 and assigns 0.151329 to a hypothesis of a Russian airstrike on a family and children support center in Sumy. This is analytic support only and is not independent corroboration.
  • STERNENKO’s sports-federation post and Рыбарь’s commentary are information-environment items rather than independently verified operational events.

Evidence limitations and unresolved questions

  • Most operational claims in this batch lack independent corroboration: the Sumy casualty details and facility identity, the Holosiivskyi administrative-building hit details, the RiverMall UAV claim, the Shebekinsky district incident totals and injuries, the Azov Optical-Mechanical Plant damage assessment, the Pantsir/Flamingo interception claim, and the Object No. 1335 nuclear-mission claims.
  • Event times are often not stated. For air alerts, source timestamps approximate alert issuance but do not confirm impacts or interceptions. For the Shebekinsky summary, the reporting period is described as 24 hours but exact incident times are mostly not supplied. The Pantsir claim gives the night of 19–20 September without a year. The Azov Optical-Mechanical Plant strike is dated 26 September 2026 by the source. The ASTRA nuclear-complex investigation cites procurement since 2018 and peak work in 2020–2021.
  • The Sumy reporting contains a date inconsistency: ASTRA relayed a claim of 2 dead and 23 injured in Sumy on 27 September while describing it as “the day before.” The same batch also reports a separate strike on Sumy with 2 dead and 5 injured. These should not be merged without clarification.
  • The Sumy facility description is disputed in the supplied accounts: Оперативний ЗСУ referred to a “specialized children’s home,” while ASTRA/Sumy OVA referred to a center for support of families and children with no visitors present. This affects how the target is characterized.
  • The RiverMall claim rests on a single watermarked photo with no geolocation or official confirmation; the photo shows smoke but not a UAV, impact, munition, or casualty.
  • The Shebekinsky district data is a Russian official-source relay through a partisan Telegram channel; no independent local, hospital, or satellite evidence was supplied in this batch.
  • The Azov Optical-Mechanical Plant damage assessment is an OSINT satellite-image claim from a Ukrainian-aligned channel; exact shop names, hit counts, and damage extent are source claims and were not independently corroborated in the supplied messages.
  • The TASS/Pantsir claim is a single state-source assertion without visible evidence. The Date lacks a year, and no unit, location, or independent flight-track data was supplied.
  • The ASTRA/Object No. 1335 report relies on a single relayed investigation; the authenticity of the document cover, the nuclear mission, the Perimeter link, and the automation level remain unresolved in the supplied material.
  • The Swiss referendum claim lacks an official Swiss confirmation or source link; the attached chart is marked as an intermediate result.
  • Air-raid alerts describe reported drone headings and do not establish that strikes, damage or casualties occurred. The previous situation report and previous daily report were supplied as baseline/context only and are not independent corroboration of events in this batch. Areas absent from this batch are not established as quiet or unchanged.
  • The supplied weather context provides time-qualified numeric observations as of 2026-09-27T14:00 UTC for Kharkiv/Vovchansk, Luhansk/Svatove, Donetsk/Pokrovsk, Zaporizhzhia/Orikhiv and Kherson/Kherson. It is environmental information only and is not evidence of military events.
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